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Title
Developing new methods for analyzing urban energy use in buildings: historic turnover, spatial patterns, and future forecasting
Description
Energy use within urban building stocks is continuing to increase globally as populations expand and access to electricity improves. This projected increase in demand could require deployment of new generation capacity, but there is potential to offset some of this demand through modification of the buildings themselves. Building stocks are quasi-permanent infrastructures which have enduring influence on urban energy consumption, and research is needed to understand: 1) how development patterns constrain energy use decisions and 2) how cities can achieve energy and environmental goals given the constraints of the stock. This requires a thorough evaluation of both the growth of the stock and as well as the spatial distribution of use throughout the city. In this dissertation, a case study in Los Angeles County, California (LAC) is used to quantify urban growth, forecast future energy use under climate change, and to make recommendations for mitigating energy consumption increases. A reproducible methodological framework is included for application to other urban areas.
In LAC, residential electricity demand could increase as much as 55-68% between 2020 and 2060, and building technology lock-in has constricted the options for mitigating energy demand, as major changes to the building stock itself are not possible, as only a small portion of the stock is turned over every year. Aggressive and timely efficiency upgrades to residential appliances and building thermal shells can significantly offset the projected increases, potentially avoiding installation of new generation capacity, but regulations on new construction will likely be ineffectual due to the long residence time of the stock (60+ years and increasing). These findings can be extrapolated to other U.S. cities where the majority of urban expansion has already occurred, such as the older cities on the eastern coast. U.S. population is projected to increase 40% by 2060, with growth occurring in the warmer southern and western regions. In these growing cities, improving new construction buildings can help offset electricity demand increases before the city reaches the lock-in phase.
In LAC, residential electricity demand could increase as much as 55-68% between 2020 and 2060, and building technology lock-in has constricted the options for mitigating energy demand, as major changes to the building stock itself are not possible, as only a small portion of the stock is turned over every year. Aggressive and timely efficiency upgrades to residential appliances and building thermal shells can significantly offset the projected increases, potentially avoiding installation of new generation capacity, but regulations on new construction will likely be ineffectual due to the long residence time of the stock (60+ years and increasing). These findings can be extrapolated to other U.S. cities where the majority of urban expansion has already occurred, such as the older cities on the eastern coast. U.S. population is projected to increase 40% by 2060, with growth occurring in the warmer southern and western regions. In these growing cities, improving new construction buildings can help offset electricity demand increases before the city reaches the lock-in phase.
Date Created
2016
Contributors
- Reyna, Janet Lorel (Author)
- Chester, Mikhail V (Thesis advisor)
- Gurney, Kevin (Committee member)
- Reddy, T. Agami (Committee member)
- Rey, Sergio (Committee member)
- Arizona State University (Publisher)
Topical Subject
Resource Type
Extent
xvi, 237 pages : color illustrations, color maps
Language
eng
Copyright Statement
In Copyright
Primary Member of
Peer-reviewed
No
Open Access
No
Handle
https://hdl.handle.net/2286/R.I.38806
Statement of Responsibility
by Janet Lorel Reyna
Description Source
Viewed on August 16, 2016
Level of coding
full
Note
thesis
Partial requirement for: Ph.D., Arizona State University, 2016
bibliography
Includes bibliographical references (pages 103-114)
Field of study: Civil and environmental engineering
System Created
- 2016-06-01 09:01:34
System Modified
- 2021-08-30 01:22:24
- 3 years 3 months ago
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