Anticipating and adapting to increases in water distribution infrastructure failure caused by interdependencies and heat exposure from climate change

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Description
This dissertation advances the capability of water infrastructure utilities to anticipate and adapt to vulnerabilities in their systems from temperature increase and interdependencies with other infrastructure systems. Impact assessment models of increased heat and interdependencies were developed which incorporate probability,

This dissertation advances the capability of water infrastructure utilities to anticipate and adapt to vulnerabilities in their systems from temperature increase and interdependencies with other infrastructure systems. Impact assessment models of increased heat and interdependencies were developed which incorporate probability, spatial, temporal, and operational information. Key findings from the models are that with increased heat the increased likelihood of water quality non-compliances is particularly concerning, the anticipated increases in different hardware components generate different levels of concern starting with iron pipes, then pumps, and then PVC pipes, the effects of temperature increase on hardware components and on service losses are non-linear due to spatial criticality of components, and that modeling spatial and operational complexity helps to identify potential pathways of failure propagation between infrastructure systems. Exploring different parameters of the models allowed for comparison of institutional strategies. Key findings are that either preventative maintenance or repair strategies can completely offset additional outages from increased temperatures though-- improved repair times reduce overall duration of outages more than preventative maintenance, and that coordinated strategies across utilities could be effective for mitigating vulnerability.
Date Created
2019
Agent

Assessing Water Distribution Infrastructure Recovery from Component Failures through a Resilience Lens

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Description
In developed countries, municipalities deliver drinking water to constituents through water distribution systems. These transport water from a treatment plant to homes, restaurants, and any other site of end use. Proper water distribution system infrastructure functionality is a critical concern

In developed countries, municipalities deliver drinking water to constituents through water distribution systems. These transport water from a treatment plant to homes, restaurants, and any other site of end use. Proper water distribution system infrastructure functionality is a critical concern to city planners and managers because component failures within these systems restrict or prevent the ability to deliver water. The reduced capacity to deliver water forces the health and well being of all citizens into jeopardy. The breakdown of a component can even spark the failure of several more components, causing a sequence of cascading failures with catastrophic consequences. To make matters worse, some forms of component failures are unpredictable and it is impossible to foresee every possible failure that could occur. In order to prevent cataclysmic losses that are experienced during system failures, the development of resilient water distribution infrastructure is vital. A resilient water distribution system possesses an adaptive capacity to mitigate the loss of service resulting from component failures. Traditionally, infrastructure resilience research has been retrospective in nature, analyzing the infrastructure system after it suffered a failure event. However, this research project takes water distribution resilience research in a new direction. The research identifies the Sensing Anticipating, Adaptation, and Learning processes that are inherent in the current operations of each component in the water distribution system (pumps, pipes, valves, tanks, nodes). Additional SAAL processes have been recommended for the components that lack adaptive management in current practice. This workis unique in that it applies resilience theory to water distribution systems in an anticipatory manner. This anticipatory application of resilience will provide operators with actionable process for them to implement during failure situations. In this setting, resilience is applied to existing systems for noticeable improvements in operation during failure situations.
Date Created
2016-05
Agent

Safe-to-Fail Adaptation Strategies for Phoenix-Area Roadways Under Increasing Precipitation

Description

Global climate models predict increases in precipitation events in the Phoenix-metropolitan area and with the proposition of more flooding new insights are needed for protecting roadways and the services they provide. Students from engineering, sustainability, and planning worked together in

Global climate models predict increases in precipitation events in the Phoenix-metropolitan area and with the proposition of more flooding new insights are needed for protecting roadways and the services they provide. Students from engineering, sustainability, and planning worked together in ASU’s Urban Infrastructure Anatomy Spring 2016 course to assess:
       1. How historical floods changed roadway designs.
       2. Precipitation forecasts to mid-century.
       3. The vulnerability of roadways to more frequent precipitation.
       4. Adaptation strategies focusing on safe-to-fail thinking.
       5. Strategies for overcoming institutional barriers to enable transitions.
The students designed an EPA Storm Water Management Model for the City of Phoenix and forced it with future precipitation forecasts. Vulnerability indexes were created for infrastructure performance and social outcomes. A multi-criteria decision analysis framework was created to prioritize infrastructure adaptation strategies.

Agent

An Adaptive Management Plan to Decrease Impacts of Water Crisis on Social Welfare in Detroit

Description

In the economic crisis Detroit has been enduring for many decades, a unique crisis has emerged with the provision of water that is normally not seen in the developed world. The oversized, deteriorating, and underfunded water provision system has been

In the economic crisis Detroit has been enduring for many decades, a unique crisis has emerged with the provision of water that is normally not seen in the developed world. The oversized, deteriorating, and underfunded water provision system has been steadily accruing debt for the water utility since population began to decrease in the 1950s. As a result, the utility has instated rate increases and aggressive water shut off policies for non-paying residents. Residents have consequentially claimed that their human right to water has been breeched.

In this report, I analyze possible solutions to the water crisis from both the water utility and resident perspectives. Since all utility management solutions have very serious limitations on either side of the argument, I have chosen a set of technologies to consider as a part of an impact mitigation plan that can provide alternative sources of water for the people who no longer can rely on municipal water. I additionally propose an adaptive management plan to evaluate the effects of using these technologies in the long-term. The monitoring of the effects of technological mitigations might also help determine if sustainability (efficiency and equity) could be an attainable long-term solution to Detroit’s water crisis.

Vulnerability Assessment of Southwest Infrastructure to Increased Heat Using a Life Cycle Approach

Description

As average temperatures and occurrences of extreme heat events increase in the Southwest, the water infrastructure that was designed to operate under historical temperature ranges may become increasingly vulnerable to component and operational failures. For each major component along the

As average temperatures and occurrences of extreme heat events increase in the Southwest, the water infrastructure that was designed to operate under historical temperature ranges may become increasingly vulnerable to component and operational failures. For each major component along the life cycle of water in an urban water infrastructural system, potential failure events and their semi-quantitative probabilities of occurrence were estimated from interview responses of water industry professionals. These failure events were used to populate event trees to determine the potential pathways to cascading failures in the system. The probabilities of the cascading failure scenarios under future conditions were then calculated and compared to the probabilities of scenarios under current conditions to assess the increased vulnerability of the system. We find that extreme heat events can increase the vulnerability of water systems significantly and that there are ways for water infrastructure managers to proactively mitigate these vulnerabilities before problems occur.