Programs and Communities
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- Creators: School of Human Evolution and Social Change
- Creators: Pellegrino, Laura
Background
In 2015, the Zika arbovirus (ZIKV) began circulating in the Americas, rapidly expanding its global geographic range in explosive outbreaks. Unusual among mosquito-borne diseases, ZIKV has been shown to also be sexually transmitted, although sustained autochthonous transmission due to sexual transmission alone has not been observed, indicating the reproduction number (R0) for sexual transmission alone is less than 1. Critical to the assessment of outbreak risk, estimation of the potential attack rates, and assessment of control measures, are estimates of the basic reproduction number, R0.
Methods
We estimated the R0 of the 2015 ZIKV outbreak in Barranquilla, Colombia, through an analysis of the exponential rise in clinically identified ZIKV cases (n = 359 to the end of November, 2015).
Findings
The rate of exponential rise in cases was ρ = 0.076 days[superscript −1], with 95% CI [0.066,0.087] days[superscript −1]. We used a vector-borne disease model with additional direct transmission to estimate the R0; assuming the R0 of sexual transmission alone is less than 1, we estimated the total R0 = 3.8 [2.4,5.6], and that the fraction of cases due to sexual transmission was 0.23 [0.01,0.47] with 95% confidence.
Interpretation
This is among the first estimates of R0 for a ZIKV outbreak in the Americas, and also among the first quantifications of the relative impact of sexual transmission.
The ASU School of Dance presents Undergraduate Projects Showing, April 11-12, with works by dance undergraduate students, performed at Margaret Gisolo Dance Studio, PEBE 132.
The ASU School of Dance presents Graduate Projects Showing, April 4-5, with works by dance graduate students, performed at Margaret Gisolo Dance Studio, PEBE 132.
The ASU School of Dance presents The Dance Annual, March 2-4, with works by dance faculty, alumni, graduate, undergraduate, and visiting artists, performed at the Galvin Playhouse Theatre.
The ASU School of Dance presents Fall Graduate Concert, October 29, with works by MFA students Rebecca Blair Hillerby, Micaela Church, Emily Newman, Karryn Allen, Rebecca A. Ferrell, Ashlee Ramsey, John Leonard, and Randi L. Frost, performed at the Dance Studio Theatre.
The ASU School of Dance presents The Dance Annual, April 15-17, with works by dance faculty, alumni, graduate, undergraduate, and visiting artists, performed at Margaret Gisolo Dance Studio.
The ASU School of Dance presents Emerging Artists I, October 8-10, with works by dance MFA candidates Randi L. Frost, Emily Spranger, and Omilade Davis, performed at the Dance Lab, FAC 122.
The ASU School of Dance presents Emerging Artists II, November 5-7, with works by dance MFA candidates Rebecca A. Ferrell, Rebecca Blair Hillerby, and Crystal Bedford, performed at the Margaret Gisolo Dance Studio.
The ASU School of Dance presents Undergraduate Concert, April 14, with works by dance undergrad students, performed at the Dance Studio Theatre, PEBE 132.