Programs and Communities
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- Creators: Mihaleva, Galina
- Creators: School of Human Evolution and Social Change
- Creators: School for the Engineering of Matter, Transport and Energy
Background
In 2015, the Zika arbovirus (ZIKV) began circulating in the Americas, rapidly expanding its global geographic range in explosive outbreaks. Unusual among mosquito-borne diseases, ZIKV has been shown to also be sexually transmitted, although sustained autochthonous transmission due to sexual transmission alone has not been observed, indicating the reproduction number (R0) for sexual transmission alone is less than 1. Critical to the assessment of outbreak risk, estimation of the potential attack rates, and assessment of control measures, are estimates of the basic reproduction number, R0.
Methods
We estimated the R0 of the 2015 ZIKV outbreak in Barranquilla, Colombia, through an analysis of the exponential rise in clinically identified ZIKV cases (n = 359 to the end of November, 2015).
Findings
The rate of exponential rise in cases was ρ = 0.076 days[superscript −1], with 95% CI [0.066,0.087] days[superscript −1]. We used a vector-borne disease model with additional direct transmission to estimate the R0; assuming the R0 of sexual transmission alone is less than 1, we estimated the total R0 = 3.8 [2.4,5.6], and that the fraction of cases due to sexual transmission was 0.23 [0.01,0.47] with 95% confidence.
Interpretation
This is among the first estimates of R0 for a ZIKV outbreak in the Americas, and also among the first quantifications of the relative impact of sexual transmission.
The ASU School of Dance presents Undergraduate Projects Showing, October 25-26, with works by undergraduate dance students, performed at Margaret Gisolo Dance Studio.
The ASU School of Dance presents School of Dance LIVE!, September 7-9, with works by dance faculty, performed at Galvin Playhouse.
The ASU School of Dance presents Emerging Artists I, February 9-12, with works by guest artists, dance faculty, and students, performed at Dance Studio Theatre, PEBE 132.
The ASU School of Dance presents Rhythms of Life, November 3-5, with works by guest artists performed at Dance Studio Theatre, PEBE 132.
The ASU School of Dance presents Celebrating the Nagrin Legend, September 16-18, with works by dance faculty and visiting artists, performed at the Galvin Playhouse Theatre.
The ASU School of Dance presents New Danceworks II, January 26-29, with works by dance faculty, graduate students, and visiting artists, performed at the Dance Studio Theatre, PEBE 132.
The ASU School of Dance presents Sharing Unimaginable Worlds: Spring Concert 2006, April 27-30, with works by dance faculty, alumni, graduate, undergraduate, and visiting artists, performed at Galvin Playhouse.
The ASU School of Dance presents Poetry Both Fierce and Fragile: Spring Concert, April 19-22, with works by guest artists, dance faculty, graduate, and undergraduate students, performed at Galvin Playhouse.