Programs and Communities

Climatic changes have the potential to impact electricity generation in the U.S. Southwest and methods are needed for estimating how cities will be impacted. This study builds an electricity vulnerability risk index for two Southwest cities (Phoenix and Los Angeles) based on climate-related changes in electricity generation capacity. Planning reserve margins (PRM) are used to estimate the potential for blackouts and brownouts under future climate scenarios. Reductions in PRM occur in both cities in 2016 with the most significant reductions occurring in regions relying more heavily on hydropower.

Phoenix is the sixth most populated city in the United States and the 12th largest metropolitan area by population, with about 4.4 million people. As the region continues to grow, the demand for housing and jobs within the metropolitan area is projected to rise under uncertain climate conditions.

Undergraduate and graduate students from Engineering, Sustainability, and Urban Planning in ASU’s Urban Infrastructure Anatomy and Sustainable Development course evaluated the water, energy, and infrastructure changes that result from smart growth in Phoenix, Arizona. The Maricopa Association of Government's Sustainable Transportation and Land Use Integration Study identified a market for 485,000 residential dwelling units in the urban core. Household water and energy use changes, changes in infrastructure needs, and financial and economic savings are assessed along with associated energy use and greenhouse gas emissions.

The course project has produced data on sustainable development in Phoenix and the findings will be made available through ASU’s Urban Sustainability Lab.

Already the leading cause of weather-related deaths in the United States, extreme heat events (EHEs) are expected to occur with greater frequency, duration and intensity over the next century. However, not all populations are affected equally. Risk factors for heat mortality—including age, race, income level, and infrastructure characteristics—often vary by geospatial location. While traditional epidemiological studies sometimes account for social risk factors, they rarely account for intra-urban variability in meteorological characteristics, or for the interaction between social and meteorological risks.

This study aims to develop estimates of EHEs at an intra-urban scale for two major metropolitan areas in the Southwest: Maricopa County (Arizona) and Los Angeles County (California). EHEs are identified at a 1/8-degree (12 km) spatial resolution using an algorithm that detects prolonged periods of abnormally high temperatures. Downscaled temperature projections from three general circulation models (GCMs) are analyzed under three relative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. Over the next century, EHEs are found to increase by 340-1800% in Maricopa County, and by 150-840% in Los Angeles County. Frequency of future EHEs is primarily driven by greenhouse gas concentrations, with the greatest number of EHEs occurring under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Intra-urban variation in EHEs is also found to be significant. Within Maricopa County, “high risk” regions exhibit 4.5 times the number of EHE days compared to “low risk” regions; within Los Angeles County, this ratio is 15 to 1.

The project website can be accessed here. 

The urban heat island effect is especially significant in semi-arid climates, generating a myriad of problems for large urban areas. Green space can mitigate warming, providing cooling benefits important to reducing energy consumption and improving human health. The arrangement of green space to reap the full potential of cooling benefits is a challenge, especially considering the diurnal variations of urban heat island effects. Surprisingly, methods that support the strategic placement of green space in the context of urban heat island are lacking. Integrating geographic information systems, remote sensing, spatial statistics and spatial optimization, we developed a framework to identify the best locations and configuration of new green space with respect to cooling benefits. The developed multi-objective model is applied to evaluate the diurnal cooling trade-offs in Phoenix, Arizona. As a result of optimal green space placement, significant cooling potentials can be achieved. A reduction of land surface temperature of approximately 1–2 °C locally and 0.5 °C regionally can be achieved by the addition of new green space. 96% of potential day and night cooling benefits can be achieved through simultaneous consideration. The results also demonstrate that clustered green space enhances local cooling because of the agglomeration effect; whereas, dispersed patterns lead to greater overall regional cooling. The optimization based framework can effectively inform planning decisions with regard to green space allocation to best ameliorate excessive heat.

Engineered pavements cover a large fraction of cities and offer significant potential for urban heat island mitigation. Though rapidly increasing research efforts have been devoted to the study of pavement materials, thermal interactions between buildings and the ambient environment are mostly neglected. In this study, numerical models featuring a realistic representation of building-environment thermal interactions, were applied to quantify the effect of pavements on the urban thermal environment at multiple scales. It was found that performance of pavements inside the canyon was largely determined by the canyon geometry. In a high-density residential area, modifying pavements had insignificant effect on the wall temperature and building energy consumption. At a regional scale, various pavement types were also found to have a limited cooling effect on land surface temperature and 2-m air temperature for metropolitan Phoenix. In the context of global climate change, the effect of pavement was evaluated in terms of the equivalent CO2 emission. Equivalent CO2 emission offset by reflective pavements in urban canyons was only about 13.9e46.6% of that without building canopies, depending on the canyon geometry. This study revealed the importance of building-environment thermal interactions in determining thermal conditions inside the urban canopy.

We use the Northeast US Urban Climate Archipelago as a case study to explore three key limitations of planning and policy initiatives to mitigate extreme urban heat. These limitations are: (1) a lack of understanding of spatial considerations—for example, how nearby urban areas interact, affecting, and being affected by, implementation of such policies; (2) an emphasis on air temperature reduction that neglects assessments of other important meteorological parameters, such as humidity, mixing heights, and urban wind fields; and (3) too narrow of a temporal focus—either time of day, season, or current vs. future climates. Additionally, the absence of a direct policy/planning linkage between heat mitigation goals and actual human health outcomes, in general, leads to solutions that only indirectly address the underlying problems. These issues are explored through several related atmospheric modeling case studies that reveal the complexities of designing effective urban heat mitigation strategies. We conclude with recommendations regarding how policy-makers can optimize the performance of their urban heat mitigation policies and programs. This optimization starts with a thorough understanding of the actual end-point goals of these policies, and concludes with the careful integration of scientific knowledge into the development of location-specific strategies that recognize and address the limitations discussed herein.

Urban Heat Island (UHI) has significant impacts on the buildings energy consumption and outdoor air quality (OAQ). Various approaches, including observation and simulation techniques, have been proposed to understand the causes of UHI formation and to find the corresponding mitigation strategies. However, the causes of UHI are not the same in different climates or city features. Thus, general conclusion cannot be made based on limited monitoring data.

With recent progress in computational tools, simulation methods have been used to study UHI. These approaches, however, are also not able to cover all the phenomena that simultaneously contribute to the formation of UHI. The shortcomings are mostly attributed to the weakness of the theories and computational cost.

This paper presents a review of the techniques used to study UHI. The abilities and limitations of each approach for the investigation of UHI mitigation and prediction are discussed. Treatment of important parameters including latent, sensible, storage, and anthropogenic heat in addition to treatment of radiation, effect of trees and pond, and boundary condition to simulate UHI is also presented. Finally, this paper discusses the application of integration approach as a future opportunity.

The City of Phoenix (Arizona, USA) developed a Tree and Shade Master Plan and a Cool Roofs initiative to ameliorate extreme heat during the summer months in their arid city. This study investigates the impact of the City's heat mitigation strategies on daytime microclimate for a pre-monsoon summer day under current climate conditions and two climate change scenarios. We assessed the cooling effect of trees and cool roofs in a Phoenix residential neighborhood using the microclimate model ENVI-met. First, using xeric landscaping as a base, we created eight tree planting scenarios (from 0% canopy cover to 30% canopy cover) for the neighborhood to characterize the relationship between canopy cover and daytime cooling benefit of trees. In a second set of simulations, we ran ENVI-met for nine combined tree planting and landscaping scenarios (mesic, oasis, and xeric) with regular roofs and cool roofs under current climate conditions and two climate change projections. For each of the 54 scenarios, we compared average neighborhood mid-afternoon air temperatures and assessed the benefits of each heat mitigation measure under current and projected climate conditions. Findings suggest that the relationship between percent canopy cover and air temperature reduction is linear, with 0.14 °C cooling per percent increase in tree cover for the neighborhood under investigation. An increase in tree canopy cover from the current 10% to a targeted 25% resulted in an average daytime cooling benefit of up to 2.0 °C in residential neighborhoods at the local scale. Cool roofs reduced neighborhood air temperatures by 0.3 °C when implemented on residential homes. The results from this city-specific mitigation project will inform messaging campaigns aimed at engaging the city decision makers, industry, and the public in the green building and urban forestry initiatives.

Rapid urbanization of the planet is occurring at an unprecedented pace, primarily in arid and semi-arid hot climates [Golden, J.S., 2004. The built environment induced urban heat island effect in rapidly urbanizing arid regions – a sustainable urban engineering complexity. Environ. Sci. J. Integr. Environ. Res. 1 (4), 321–349]. This growth has manifested itself as a cause of various impacts including elevated urban temperatures in comparison to rural sites known as the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect [Oke, T.R., 1982. The energetic basis of the urban heat island. Q. J. R. Meteor. Soc. 108, 1–24]. Related are the increased demands for electric power as a result of population growth and increased need for mechanical cooling due to the UHI. In the United States, the Environmental Protection Agency has developed a three-prong approach of (1) cool pavements, (2) urban forestry and (3) cool roofs to mitigate the UHI. Researchers undertook an examination of micro scale benefits of the utilization of photovoltaic panels to reduce the thermal impacts to surface temperatures of pavements in comparison to urban forestry. The results of the research indicate that photovoltaic panels provide a greater thermal reduction benefit during the diurnal cycle in comparison to urban forestry while also providing the additional benefits of supporting peak energy demand, conserving water resources and utilizing a renewable energy source.