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Modeling suitable habitat under climate change for chaparral shrub communities in the Santa Monica Mountains National Recreation Area, California

Description
Species distribution modeling is used to study changes in biodiversity and species range shifts, two currently well-known manifestations of climate change. The focus of this study is to explore how distributions of suitable habitat might shift under climate change for shrub communities within the Santa Monica Mountains National Recreation Area…

Species distribution modeling is used to study changes in biodiversity and species range shifts, two currently well-known manifestations of climate change. The focus of this study is to explore how distributions of suitable habitat might shift under climate change for shrub communities within the Santa Monica Mountains National Recreation Area (SMMNRA), through a comparison of community level to individual species level distribution modeling. Species level modeling is more commonly utilized, in part because community level modeling requires detailed community composition data that are not always available. However, community level modeling may better detect patterns in biodiversity. To examine the projected impact on suitable habitat in the study area, I used the MaxEnt modeling algorithm to create and evaluate species distribution models with presence only data for two future climate models at community and individual species levels. I contrasted the outcomes as a method to describe uncertainty in projected models. To derive a range of sensitivity outcomes I extracted probability frequency distributions for suitable habitat from raster grids for communities modeled directly as species groups and contrasted those with communities assembled from intersected individual species models. The intersected species models were more sensitive to climate change relative to the grouped community models. Suitable habitat in SMMNRA's bounds was projected to decline from about 30-90% for the intersected models and about 20-80% for the grouped models from its current state. Models generally captured floristic distinction between community types as drought tolerance. Overall the impact on drought tolerant communities, growing in hotter, drier habitat such as Coastal Sage Scrub, was predicted to be less than on communities growing in cooler, moister more interior habitat, such as some chaparral types. Of the two future climate change models, the wetter model projected less impact for most communities. These results help define risk exposure for communities and species in this conservation area and could be used by managers to focus vegetation monitoring tasks to detect early response to climate change. Increasingly hot and dry conditions could motivate opportunistic restoration projects for Coastal Sage Scrub, a threatened vegetation type in Southern California.
ContributorsJames, Jennifer (Author) / Franklin, Janet (Thesis advisor) / Rey, Sergio (Committee member) / Wentz, Elizabeth (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
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Disturbance signatures and sediment characteristics in aeolian dune landscapes

Description

Human-environment interactions in aeolian (windblown) systems has focused research on<br/>human’s role in causing and aiding recovery from natural and anthropogenic disturbance. There<br/>is room for improvement in understanding the best methods and considerations for manual<br/>coastal foredune restoration. Furthermore, the extent to which humans play a role in changing the<br/>shape and surface…

Human-environment interactions in aeolian (windblown) systems has focused research on<br/>human’s role in causing and aiding recovery from natural and anthropogenic disturbance. There<br/>is room for improvement in understanding the best methods and considerations for manual<br/>coastal foredune restoration. Furthermore, the extent to which humans play a role in changing the<br/>shape and surface textures of quartz sand grains is poorly understood. The goal of this thesis is<br/>two-fold: 1) quantify the geomorphic effectiveness of a multi-year manually rebuilt foredune and<br/>2) compare the shapes and microtextures on disturbed and undisturbed quartz sand grains. For<br/>the rebuilt foredune, uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) were used to survey the site, collecting<br/>photos to create digital surface models (DSMs). These DSMs were compared at discrete<br/>moments in time to create a sediment budget. Water levels and cross-shore modeling is also<br/>considered to predict the decadal evolution of the site. In the two years since rebuilding, the<br/>foredune has been stable, but not geomorphically resilient. Modeling shows landward foredune<br/>retreat and beach widening. For the quartz grains, t-testing of shape characteristics showed that<br/>there may be differences in the mean circularity between grains from off-highway vehicle and<br/>non-riding areas. Quartz grains from a variety of coastal and inland dunes were imaged using a<br/>scanning electron microscopy to search for evidence of anthropogenically-induced<br/>microtextures. On grains from Oceano Dunes in California, encouraging textures like parallel<br/>striations, grain fracturing, and linear conchoidal fractures provide exploratory evidence of<br/>anthropogenic microtextures. More focused research is recommended to confirm this exploratory<br/>work.
ContributorsMarvin, Michael Colin (Author) / Walker, Ian (Thesis director) / Dorn, Ron (Committee member) / Schmeeckle, Mark (Committee member) / School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning (Contributor, Contributor, Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2021-05