Reasoning about Cyber Threat Actors

Reasoning about the activities of cyber threat actors is critical to defend against cyber

attacks. However, this task is difficult for a variety of reasons. In simple terms, it is difficult

to determine who the attacker is, what the desired goals are of the attacker, and how they will

carry out their attacks. These three questions essentially entail understanding the attacker’s

use of deception, the capabilities available, and the intent of launching the attack. These

three issues are highly inter-related. If an adversary can hide their intent, they can better

deceive a defender. If an adversary’s capabilities are not well understood, then determining

what their goals are becomes difficult as the defender is uncertain if they have the necessary

tools to accomplish them. However, the understanding of these aspects are also mutually

supportive. If we have a clear picture of capabilities, intent can better be deciphered. If we

understand intent and capabilities, a defender may be able to see through deception schemes.

In this dissertation, I present three pieces of work to tackle these questions to obtain

a better understanding of cyber threats. First, we introduce a new reasoning framework

to address deception. We evaluate the framework by building a dataset from DEFCON

capture-the-flag exercise to identify the person or group responsible for a cyber attack.

We demonstrate that the framework not only handles cases of deception but also provides

transparent decision making in identifying the threat actor. The second task uses a cognitive

learning model to determine the intent – goals of the threat actor on the target system.

The third task looks at understanding the capabilities of threat actors to target systems by

identifying at-risk systems from hacker discussions on darkweb websites. To achieve this

task we gather discussions from more than 300 darkweb websites relating to malicious

hacking.