Faculty and Staff

The emergence of the disease chytridiomycosis caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has been implicated in dramatic global amphibian declines. Although many species have undergone catastrophic declines and/or extinctions, others appear to be unaffected or persist at reduced frequencies after Bd outbreaks. The reasons behind this variance in disease outcomes are poorly understood: differences in host immune responses have been proposed, yet previous studies suggest a lack of robust immune responses to Bd in susceptible species. Here, we sequenced transcriptomes from clutch-mates of a highly susceptible amphibian, Atelopus zeteki, with different infection histories. We found significant changes in expression of numerous genes involved in innate and inflammatory responses in infected frogs despite high susceptibility to chytridiomycosis.

We show evidence of acquired immune responses generated against Bd, including increased expression of immunoglobulins and major histocompatibility complex genes. In addition, fungal-killing genes had significantly greater expression in frogs previously exposed to Bd compared with Bd-naïve frogs, including chitinase and serine-type proteases. However, our results appear to confirm recent in vitro evidence of immune suppression by Bd, demonstrated by decreased expression of lymphocyte genes in the spleen of infected compared with control frogs. We propose susceptibility to chytridiomycosis is not due to lack of Bd-specific immune responses but instead is caused by failure of those responses to be effective. Ineffective immune pathway activation and timing of antibody production are discussed as potential mechanisms. However, in light of our findings, suppression of key immune responses by Bd is likely an important factor in the lethality of this fungus.

A relatively unexplored issue in cybersecurity science and engineering is whether there exist intrinsic patterns of cyberattacks. Conventional wisdom favors absence of such patterns due to the overwhelming complexity of the modern cyberspace. Surprisingly, through a detailed analysis of an extensive data set that records the time-dependent frequencies of attacks over a relatively wide range of consecutive IP addresses, we successfully uncover intrinsic spatiotemporal patterns underlying cyberattacks, where the term “spatio” refers to the IP address space. In particular, we focus on analyzing macroscopic properties of the attack traffic flows and identify two main patterns with distinct spatiotemporal characteristics: deterministic and stochastic. Strikingly, there are very few sets of major attackers committing almost all the attacks, since their attack “fingerprints” and target selection scheme can be unequivocally identified according to the very limited number of unique spatiotemporal characteristics, each of which only exists on a consecutive IP region and differs significantly from the others. We utilize a number of quantitative measures, including the flux-fluctuation law, the Markov state transition probability matrix, and predictability measures, to characterize the attack patterns in a comprehensive manner. A general finding is that the attack patterns possess high degrees of predictability, potentially paving the way to anticipating and, consequently, mitigating or even preventing large-scale cyberattacks using macroscopic approaches.

Supply-demand processes take place on a large variety of real-world networked systems ranging from power grids and the internet to social networking and urban systems. In a modern infrastructure, supply-demand systems are constantly expanding, leading to constant increase in load requirement for resources and consequently, to problems such as low efficiency, resource scarcity, and partial system failures. Under certain conditions global catastrophe on the scale of the whole system can occur through the dynamical process of cascading failures. We investigate optimization and resilience of time-varying supply-demand systems by constructing network models of such systems, where resources are transported from the supplier sites to users through various links. Here by optimization we mean minimization of the maximum load on links, and system resilience can be characterized using the cascading failure size of users who fail to connect with suppliers.

We consider two representative classes of supply schemes: load driven supply and fix fraction supply. Our findings are: (1) optimized systems are more robust since relatively smaller cascading failures occur when triggered by external perturbation to the links; (2) a large fraction of links can be free of load if resources are directed to transport through the shortest paths; (3) redundant links in the performance of the system can help to reroute the traffic but may undesirably transmit and enlarge the failure size of the system; (4) the patterns of cascading failures depend strongly upon the capacity of links; (5) the specific location of the trigger determines the specific route of cascading failure, but has little effect on the final cascading size; (6) system expansion typically reduces the efficiency; and (7) when the locations of the suppliers are optimized over a long expanding period, fewer suppliers are required. These results hold for heterogeneous networks in general, providing insights into designing optimal and resilient complex supply-demand systems that expand constantly in time.

Most previous works on complete synchronization of chaotic oscillators focused on the one-channel interaction scheme where the oscillators are coupled through only one variable or a symmetric set of variables. Using the standard framework of master-stability function (MSF), we investigate the emergence of complex synchronization behaviors under all possible configurations of two-channel coupling, which include, for example, all possible cross coupling schemes among the dynamical variables. Utilizing the classic Rössler and Lorenz oscillators, we find a rich variety of synchronization phenomena not present in any previously extensively studied, single-channel coupling configurations. For example, in many cases two coupling channels can enhance or even generate synchronization where there is only weak or no synchronization under only one coupling channel, which has been verified in a coupled neuron system. There are also cases where the oscillators are originally synchronized under one coupling channel, but an additional synchronizable coupling channel can, however, destroy synchronization. Direct numerical simulations of actual synchronization dynamics verify the MSF-based predictions. Our extensive computation and heuristic analysis provide an atlas for synchronization of chaotic oscillators coupled through two channels, which can be used as a systematic reference to facilitate further research in this area.

Amphibians vary in their response to infection by the amphibian-killing chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Highly susceptible species are the first to decline and/or disappear once Bd arrives at a site. These competent hosts likely facilitate Bd proliferation because of ineffective innate and/or acquired immune defenses. We show that Atelopus zeteki, a highly susceptible species that has undergone substantial population declines throughout its range, rapidly and exponentially increases skin Bd infection intensity, achieving intensities that are several orders of magnitude greater than most other species reported. We experimentally infected individuals that were never exposed to Bd (n = 5) or previously exposed to an attenuated Bd strain (JEL427-P39; n = 3). Within seven days post-inoculation, the average Bd infection intensity was 18,213 zoospores (SE: 9,010; range: 0 to 66,928).

Both average Bd infection intensity and zoospore output (i.e., the number of zoospores released per minute by an infected individual) increased exponentially until time of death (t₅₀ = 7.018, p<0.001, t₄₆ = 3.164, p = 0.001, respectively). Mean Bd infection intensity and zoospore output at death were 4,334,422 zoospores (SE: 1,236,431) and 23.55 zoospores per minute (SE: 22.78), respectively, with as many as 9,584,158 zoospores on a single individual. The daily percent increases in Bd infection intensity and zoospore output were 35.4% (SE: 0.05) and 13.1% (SE: 0.04), respectively. We also found that Bd infection intensity and zoospore output were positively correlated (t₄₃ = 3.926, p<0.001). All animals died between 22 and 33 days post-inoculation (mean: 28.88; SE: 1.58). Prior Bd infection had no effect on survival, Bd infection intensity, or zoospore output. We conclude that A. zeteki, a highly susceptible amphibian species, may be an acute supershedder. Our results can inform epidemiological models to estimate Bd outbreak probability, especially as they relate to reintroduction programs.

Laboratory investigations into the amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), have accelerated recently, given the pathogen’s role in causing the global decline and extinction of amphibians. Studies in which host animals were exposed to Bd have largely assumed that lab-maintained pathogen cultures retained the infective and pathogenic properties of wild isolates. Attenuated pathogenicity is common in artificially maintained cultures of other pathogenic fungi, but to date, it is unknown whether, and to what degree, Bd might change in culture. We compared zoospore production over time in two samples of a single Bd isolate having different passage histories: one maintained in artificial media for more than six years (JEL427-P39), and one recently thawed from cryopreserved stock (JEL427-P9). In a common garden experiment, we then exposed two different amphibian species, Eleutherodactylus coqui and Atelopus zeteki, to both cultures to test whether Bd attenuates in pathogenicity with in vitro passages. The culture with the shorter passage history, JEL427-P9, had significantly greater zoospore densities over time compared to JEL427-P39. This difference in zoospore production was associated with a difference in pathogenicity for a susceptible amphibian species, indicating that fecundity may be an important virulence factor for Bd. In the 130-day experiment, Atelopus zeteki frogs exposed to the JEL427-P9 culture experienced higher average infection intensity and 100% mortality, compared with 60% mortality for frogs exposed to JEL427-P39. This effect was not observed with Eleutherodactylus coqui, which was able to clear infection. We hypothesize that the differences in phenotypic performance observed with Atelopus zeteki are rooted in changes of the Bd genome. Future investigations enabled by this study will focus on the underlying mechanisms of Bd pathogenicity.

Resource allocation takes place in various types of real-world complex systems such as urban traffic, social services institutions, economical and ecosystems. Mathematically, the dynamical process of resource allocation can be modeled as minority games. Spontaneous evolution of the resource allocation dynamics, however, often leads to a harmful herding behavior accompanied by strong fluctuations in which a large majority of agents crowd temporarily for a few resources, leaving many others unused. Developing effective control methods to suppress and eliminate herding is an important but open problem. Here we develop a pinning control method, that the fluctuations of the system consist of intrinsic and systematic components allows us to design a control scheme with separated control variables. A striking finding is the universal existence of an optimal pinning fraction to minimize the variance of the system, regardless of the pinning patterns and the network topology. We carry out a generally applicable theory to explain the emergence of optimal pinning and to predict the dependence of the optimal pinning fraction on the network topology. Our work represents a general framework to deal with the broader problem of controlling collective dynamics in complex systems with potential applications in social, economical and political systems.

Successful identification of directed dynamical influence in complex systems is relevant to significant problems of current interest. Traditional methods based on Granger causality and transfer entropy have issues such as difficulty with nonlinearity and large data requirement. Recently a framework based on nonlinear dynamical analysis was proposed to overcome these difficulties. We find, surprisingly, that noise can counterintuitively enhance the detectability of directed dynamical influence. In fact, intentionally injecting a proper amount of asymmetric noise into the available time series has the unexpected benefit of dramatically increasing confidence in ascertaining the directed dynamical influence in the underlying system. This result is established based on both real data and model time series from nonlinear ecosystems. We develop a physical understanding of the beneficial role of noise in enhancing detection of directed dynamical influence.

A remarkable phenomenon in spatiotemporal dynamical systems is chimera state, where the structurally and dynamically identical oscillators in a coupled networked system spontaneously break into two groups, one exhibiting coherent motion and another incoherent. This phenomenon was typically studied in the setting of non-local coupling configurations. We ask what can happen to chimera states under systematic changes to the network structure when links are removed from the network in an orderly fashion but the local coupling topology remains invariant with respect to an index shift. We find the emergence of multicluster chimera states. Remarkably, as a parameter characterizing the amount of link removal is increased, chimera states of distinct numbers of clusters emerge and persist in different parameter regions. We develop a phenomenological theory, based on enhanced or reduced interactions among oscillators in different spatial groups, to explain why chimera states of certain numbers of clusters occur in certain parameter regions. The theoretical prediction agrees well with numerics.

We investigate the emergence of extreme events in interdependent networks. We introduce an inter-layer traffic resource competing mechanism to account for the limited capacity associated with distinct network layers. A striking finding is that, when the number of network layers and/or the overlap among the layers are increased, extreme events can emerge in a cascading manner on a global scale. Asymptotically, there are two stable absorption states: a state free of extreme events and a state of full of extreme events, and the transition between them is abrupt. Our results indicate that internal interactions in the multiplex system can yield qualitatively distinct phenomena associated with extreme events that do not occur for independent network layers. An implication is that, e.g., public resource competitions among different service providers can lead to a higher resource requirement than naively expected. We derive an analytical theory to understand the emergence of global-scale extreme events based on the concept of effective betweenness. We also articulate a cost-effective control scheme through increasing the capacity of very few hubs to suppress the cascading process of extreme events so as to protect the entire multi-layer infrastructure against global-scale breakdown.