ASU Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The activity-based approach to travel demand analysis and modeling, which has been developed over the past 30 years, has received tremendous success in transportation planning and policy analysis issues, capturing the multi-way joint relationships among socio-demographic, economic, land use characteristics, activity participation, and travel behavior. The development of synthesizing population with an array of socio-demographic and socio-economic attributes has drawn remarkable attention due to privacy and cost constraints in collecting and disclosing full scale data. Although, there has been enormous progress in producing synthetic population, there has been less progress in the development of population evolution modeling arena to forecast future year population. The objective of this dissertation is to develop a well-structured full-fledged demographic evolution modeling system, capturing migration dynamics and evolution of person level attributes, introducing the concept of new household formations and apprehending the dynamics of household level long-term choices over time. A comprehensive study has been conducted on demography, sociology, anthropology, economics and transportation engineering area to better understand the dynamics of evolutionary activities over time and their impacts in travel behavior. This dissertation describes the methodology and the conceptual framework, and the development of model components. Demographic, socio-economic, and land use data from American Community Survey, National Household Travel Survey, Census PUMS, United States Time Series Economic Dynamic data and United States Center for Disease Control and Prevention have been used in this research. The entire modeling system has been implemented and coded using programming language to develop the population evolution module named `PopEvol' into a computer simulation environment. The module then has been demonstrated for a portion of Maricopa County area in Arizona to predict the milestone year population to check the accuracy of forecasting. The module has also been used to evolve the base year population for next 15 years and the evolutionary trend has been investigated.

Institutions of higher education, particularly those with large student enrollments, constitute special generators that contribute in a variety of ways to the travel demand in a region. Despite the importance of university population travel characteristics in understanding and modeling activity-travel patterns and mode choice behavior in a region, such populations remain under-studied. As metropolitan planning organizations continue to improve their regional travel models by incorporating processes and parameters specific to major regional special generators, university population travel characteristics need to be measured and special submodels that capture their behavior need to be developed. The research presented herein begins by documenting the design and administration of a comprehensive university student online travel and mode use survey that was administered at Arizona State University (ASU) in the Greater Phoenix region of Arizona. The dissertation research offers a detailed statistical analysis of student travel behavior for different student market segments. A framework is then presented for incorporating university student travel into a regional travel demand model. The application of the framework to the ASU student population is documented in detail. A comprehensive university student submodel was estimated and calibrated for integration with the full regional travel model system. Finally, student attitudes toward travel are analyzed and used as explanatory factors in multinomial logit models of mode choice. This analysis presents an examination of the extent to which attitudes play a role in explaining mode choice behavior of university students in an urban setting. The research provides evidence that student travel patterns vary substantially from those of the rest of the population, and should therefore be considered separately when forecasting travel demand and formulating transport policy in areas where universities are major contributors to regional travel.

Real-time information systems are being used widely around the world to mitigate the adverse impacts of congestion and events that contribute to network delay. It is important that transportation modeling tools be able to accurately model the impacts of real-time information provision. Such planning tools allow the simulation of the impacts of various real-time information systems, and the design of traveler information systems that can minimize impacts of congestion and network disruptions. Such modeling tools would also be helpful in planning emergency response services as well as evacuation scenarios in the event of a natural disaster. Transportation modeling tools currently in use are quite limited in their ability to model the impacts of real-time information provision on travel demand and route choices. This dissertation research focuses on enhancing a previously developed integrated transportation modeling system dubbed SimTRAVEL (Simulator of Transport, Routes, Activities, Vehicles, Emissions, and Land) to incorporate capabilities that allow the simulation of the impacts of real-time traveler information systems on activity-travel demand. The first enhancement made to the SimTRAVEL framework involves the ability to reflect the effects of providing information on prevailing (as opposed to historical) network conditions on activity-travel behavior choices. In addition, the model system is enhanced to accommodate multiple user information classes (pre-trip and enroute) simultaneously. The second major contribution involves advancing the methodological framework to model enroute decision making processes where a traveler may alter his or her travel choices (such as destination choice) while enroute to an intended destination. Travelers who are provided up-to-date network information may choose to alter their destination in response to congested conditions, or completely abandon and reschedule an activity that offers some degree of flexibility. In this dissertation research, the model framework is developed and an illustrative demonstration of the capabilities of the enhanced model system is provided using a subregion of the Greater Phoenix metropolitan area in Arizona. The results show that the model is able to simulate adjustments in travel choices that may result from the introduction of real-time traveler information. The efficacy of the integrated travel model system is also demonstrated through the application of the enhanced model system to evaluate transportation policy scenarios.

This study presents the results of one of the first attempts to characterize the pore water pressure response of soils subjected to traffic loading under saturated and unsaturated conditions. It is widely known that pore water pressure develops within the soil pores as a response to external stimulus. Also, it has been recognized that the development of pores water pressure contributes to the degradation of the resilient modulus of unbound materials. In the last decades several efforts have been directed to model the effect of air and water pore pressures upon resilient modulus. However, none of them consider dynamic variations in pressures but rather are based on equilibrium values corresponding to initial conditions. The measurement of this response is challenging especially in soils under unsaturated conditions. Models are needed not only to overcome testing limitations but also to understand the dynamic behavior of internal pore pressures that under critical conditions may even lead to failure. A testing program was conducted to characterize the pore water pressure response of a low plasticity fine clayey sand subjected to dynamic loading. The bulk stress, initial matric suction and dwelling time parameters were controlled and their effects were analyzed. The results were used to attempt models capable of predicting the accumulated excess pore pressure at any given time during the traffic loading and unloading phases. Important findings regarding the influence of the controlled variables challenge common beliefs. The accumulated excess pore water pressure was found to be higher for unsaturated soil specimens than for saturated soil specimens. The maximum pore water pressure always increased when the high bulk stress level was applied. Higher dwelling time was found to decelerate the accumulation of pore water pressure. In addition, it was found that the higher the dwelling time, the lower the maximum pore water pressure. It was concluded that upon further research, the proposed models may become a powerful tool not only to overcome testing limitations but also to enhance current design practices and to prevent soil failure due to excessive development of pore water pressure.

One of the main requirements of designing perpetual pavements is to determine the endurance limit of Hot Mix Asphalt (HMA). The purpose of this study was to validate the endurance limit for HMA using laboratory beam fatigue tests. A mathematical procedure was developed to determine the endurance limit of HMA due to healing that occurs during the rest periods between loading cycles. Relating healing to endurance limit makes this procedure unique compared to previous research projects that investigated these concepts separately. An extensive laboratory testing program, including 468 beam tests, was conducted according to AASHTO T321-03 test procedure. Six factors that affect the fatigue response of HMA were evaluated: binder type, binder content, air voids, test temperature, rest period and applied strain. The endurance limit was determined when no accumulated damage occurred indicating complete healing. Based on the test results, a first generation predictive model was developed to relate stiffness ratio to material properties. A second generation stiffness ratio model was also developed by replacing four factors (binder type, binder content, air voids, and temperature) with the initial stiffness of the mixture, which is a basic material property. The model also accounts for the nonlinear effects of the rest period and the applied strain on the healing and endurance limit. A third generation model was then developed by incorporation the number of loading cycles at different locations along the fatigue degradation curve for each test in order to account for the nonlinearity between stiffness ratio and loading cycles. In addition to predicting endurance limit, the model has the ability to predict the number of cycles to failure at any rest period and stiffness combination. The model was used to predict fatigue relationship curves for tests with rest period and determining the K1, K2, and K3 fatigue cracking coefficients. The three generation models predicted close endurance limit values ranging from 22 to 204 micro strains. After developing the third generation stiffness ratio model, the predicted endurance limit values were integrated in the strain-Nf fatigue relationships as a step toward incorporating the endurance limit in the MEPDG software. The results of this study can be used to design perpetual pavements that can sustain a large number of loads if traffic volumes and vehicle weights are controlled.