ASU Electronic Theses and Dissertations
This collection includes most of the ASU Theses and Dissertations from 2011 to present. ASU Theses and Dissertations are available in downloadable PDF format; however, a small percentage of items are under embargo. Information about the dissertations/theses includes degree information, committee members, an abstract, supporting data or media.
In addition to the electronic theses found in the ASU Digital Repository, ASU Theses and Dissertations can be found in the ASU Library Catalog.
Dissertations and Theses granted by Arizona State University are archived and made available through a joint effort of the ASU Graduate College and the ASU Libraries. For more information or questions about this collection contact or visit the Digital Repository ETD Library Guide or contact the ASU Graduate College at gradformat@asu.edu.
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- All Subjects: Visual Analytics
- Creators: Cooke, Nancy J.
Description
Intelligence analysts’ work has become progressively complex due to increasing security threats and data availability. In order to study “big” data exploration within the intelligence domain the intelligence analyst task was abstracted and replicated in a laboratory (controlled environment). Participants used a computer interface and movie database to determine the opening weekend gross movie earnings of three pre-selected movies. Data consisted of Twitter tweets and predictive models. These data were displayed in various formats such as graphs, charts, and text. Participants used these data to make their predictions. It was expected that teams (a team is a group with members who have different specialties and who work interdependently) would outperform individuals and groups. That is, teams would be significantly better at predicting “Opening Weekend Gross” than individuals or groups. Results indicated that teams outperformed individuals and groups in the first prediction, under performed in the second prediction, and performed better than individuals in the third prediction (but not better than groups). Insights and future directions are discussed.
ContributorsBuchanan, Verica (Author) / Cooke, Nancy J. (Thesis advisor) / Maciejewski, Ross (Committee member) / Craig, Scotty D. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
Predictive analytics embraces an extensive area of techniques from statistical modeling to machine learning to data mining and is applied in business intelligence, public health, disaster management and response, and many other fields. To date, visualization has been broadly used to support tasks in the predictive analytics pipeline under the underlying assumption that a human-in-the-loop can aid the analysis by integrating domain knowledge that might not be broadly captured by the system. Primary uses of visualization in the predictive analytics pipeline have focused on data cleaning, exploratory analysis, and diagnostics. More recently, numerous visual analytics systems for feature selection, incremental learning, and various prediction tasks have been proposed to support the growing use of complex models, agent-specific optimization, and comprehensive model comparison and result exploration. Such work is being driven by advances in interactive machine learning and the desire of end-users to understand and engage with the modeling process. However, despite the numerous and promising applications of visual analytics to predictive analytics tasks, work to assess the effectiveness of predictive visual analytics is lacking.
This thesis studies the current methodologies in predictive visual analytics. It first defines the scope of predictive analytics and presents a predictive visual analytics (PVA) pipeline. Following the proposed pipeline, a predictive visual analytics framework is developed to be used to explore under what circumstances a human-in-the-loop prediction process is most effective. This framework combines sentiment analysis, feature selection mechanisms, similarity comparisons and model cross-validation through a variety of interactive visualizations to support analysts in model building and prediction. To test the proposed framework, an instantiation for movie box-office prediction is developed and evaluated. Results from small-scale user studies are presented and discussed, and a generalized user study is carried out to assess the role of predictive visual analytics under a movie box-office prediction scenario.
This thesis studies the current methodologies in predictive visual analytics. It first defines the scope of predictive analytics and presents a predictive visual analytics (PVA) pipeline. Following the proposed pipeline, a predictive visual analytics framework is developed to be used to explore under what circumstances a human-in-the-loop prediction process is most effective. This framework combines sentiment analysis, feature selection mechanisms, similarity comparisons and model cross-validation through a variety of interactive visualizations to support analysts in model building and prediction. To test the proposed framework, an instantiation for movie box-office prediction is developed and evaluated. Results from small-scale user studies are presented and discussed, and a generalized user study is carried out to assess the role of predictive visual analytics under a movie box-office prediction scenario.
ContributorsLu, Yafeng (Author) / Maciejewski, Ross (Thesis advisor) / Cooke, Nancy J. (Committee member) / Liu, Huan (Committee member) / He, Jingrui (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017