ASU Electronic Theses and Dissertations
This collection includes most of the ASU Theses and Dissertations from 2011 to present. ASU Theses and Dissertations are available in downloadable PDF format; however, a small percentage of items are under embargo. Information about the dissertations/theses includes degree information, committee members, an abstract, supporting data or media.
In addition to the electronic theses found in the ASU Digital Repository, ASU Theses and Dissertations can be found in the ASU Library Catalog.
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- Creators: Tamizhmani, Govindasamy
Description
The main objective of this research is to develop an approach to PV module lifetime prediction. In doing so, the aim is to move from empirical generalizations to a formal predictive science based on data-driven case studies of the crystalline silicon PV systems. The evaluation of PV systems aged 5 to 30 years old that results in systematic predictive capability that is absent today. The warranty period provided by the manufacturers typically range from 20 to 25 years for crystalline silicon modules. The end of lifetime (for example, the time-to-degrade by 20% from rated power) of PV modules is usually calculated using a simple linear extrapolation based on the annual field degradation rate (say, 0.8% drop in power output per year). It has been 26 years since systematic studies on solar PV module lifetime prediction were undertaken as part of the 11-year flat-plate solar array (FSA) project of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) funded by DOE. Since then, PV modules have gone through significant changes in construction materials and design; making most of the field data obsolete, though the effect field stressors on the old designs/materials is valuable to be understood. Efforts have been made to adapt some of the techniques developed to the current technologies, but they are too often limited in scope and too reliant on empirical generalizations of previous results. Some systematic approaches have been proposed based on accelerated testing, but no or little experimental studies have followed. Consequently, the industry does not exactly know today how to test modules for a 20 - 30 years lifetime.
This research study focuses on the behavior of crystalline silicon PV module technology in the dry and hot climatic condition of Tempe/Phoenix, Arizona. A three-phase approach was developed: (1) A quantitative failure modes, effects, and criticality analysis (FMECA) was developed for prioritizing failure modes or mechanisms in a given environment; (2) A time-series approach was used to model environmental stress variables involved and prioritize their effect on the power output drop; and (3) A procedure for developing a prediction model was proposed for the climatic specific condition based on accelerated degradation testing
This research study focuses on the behavior of crystalline silicon PV module technology in the dry and hot climatic condition of Tempe/Phoenix, Arizona. A three-phase approach was developed: (1) A quantitative failure modes, effects, and criticality analysis (FMECA) was developed for prioritizing failure modes or mechanisms in a given environment; (2) A time-series approach was used to model environmental stress variables involved and prioritize their effect on the power output drop; and (3) A procedure for developing a prediction model was proposed for the climatic specific condition based on accelerated degradation testing
ContributorsKuitche, Joseph Mathurin (Author) / Pan, Rong (Thesis advisor) / Tamizhmani, Govindasamy (Thesis advisor) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Committee member) / Wu, Teresa (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
The main objective of this research is to develop reliability assessment methodologies to quantify the effect of various environmental factors on photovoltaic (PV) module performance degradation. The manufacturers of these photovoltaic modules typically provide a warranty level of about 25 years for 20% power degradation from the initial specified power rating. To quantify the reliability of such PV modules, the Accelerated Life Testing (ALT) plays an important role. But there are several obstacles that needs to be tackled to conduct such experiments, since there has not been enough historical field data available. Even if some time-series performance data of maximum output power (Pmax) is available, it may not be useful to develop failure/degradation mode-specific accelerated tests. This is because, to study the specific failure modes, it is essential to use failure mode-specific performance variable (like short circuit current, open circuit voltage or fill factor) that is directly affected by the failure mode, instead of overall power which would be affected by one or more of the performance variables. Hence, to address several of the above-mentioned issues, this research is divided into three phases. The first phase deals with developing models to study climate specific failure modes using failure mode specific parameters instead of power degradation. The limited field data collected after a long time (say 18-21 years), is utilized to model the degradation rate and the developed model is then calibrated to account for several unknown environmental effects using the available qualification testing data. The second phase discusses the cumulative damage modeling method to quantify the effects of various environmental variables on the overall power production of the photovoltaic module. Mainly, this cumulative degradation modeling approach is used to model the power degradation path and quantify the effects of high frequency multiple environmental input data (like temperature, humidity measured every minute or hour) with very sparse response data (power measurements taken quarterly or annually). The third phase deals with optimal planning and inference framework using Iterative-Accelerated Life Testing (I-ALT) methodology. All the proposed methodologies are demonstrated and validated using appropriate case studies.
ContributorsBala Subramaniyan, Arun (Author) / Pan, Rong (Thesis advisor) / Tamizhmani, Govindasamy (Thesis advisor) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Committee member) / Wu, Teresa (Committee member) / Kuitche, Joseph (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2020