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新冠疫情对我国上市城商行不良贷款的影响与对策研究

Description城市商业银行是我国银行业体系中的重要组成部分，在新冠疫情的背景下，本文从对我国商业银行不良贷款的成因进行分析，从新冠疫情前后城商行不良贷款、盈利能力、资本充足性等角度进行比较，总结新冠疫情之后城商行不良贷款规模上升、区域分化、不良处置加大等特征变化。然后，从企业、个人和银行本身等路径全面系统地分析新冠疫情对城商行不良贷款的直接影响，并从“宽信用”、“宽监管”和“宽货币”等政策层面对城商行不良贷款的间接影响机制进行分析。在实证分析上选取2018年一季度至2020年四季度的9个经济指标作为控制变量，分成宏观、行业和银行等三个层次，考虑到数据的可得性，选取20家上市城商行的不良贷款率作为被解释变量，通过建立连续型双重差分模型对新冠疫情对我国城市商业银行不良贷款率的影响进行实证分析，并进行稳定性和影响机制检验，得出了受疫情冲击越严重的地区，经济受影响越明显，因而城商行的不良贷款率增加得越多的结论，而且疫情对城商行不良贷款率且具有连续且时滞性的影响。相比高拨备覆盖率的城市商业银行，疫情更能提高低拨备覆盖率、抵御风险较低的城商行的不良贷款率。选取银行资本充足率作为被解释变量进行了稳健性检验。选取工业增加值和居民人均收入作为渠道变量，进行影响机制检验，结果说明工业增加值和居民人均收入对城商行不良贷款有负向的影响。最后，在理论和实证结果的基础上，对城商行不良贷款处置和有效预防疫情带来不良风险的措施提出相关建议。

ContributorsZhong, Rujian (Author) / Zhang, John (Thesis advisor) / Zhu, Ning (Thesis advisor) / Hu, Jie (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)

Created2022

企业社会责任与股价崩盘风险: 以港股上市公司为例

Description随着经济和社会的进步，企业不仅要以盈利为目标，也为利益相关者和生态环境负责并承担相应的社会责任。社会公众也日渐对企业社会责任问题加以重视，伴随着社会责任这一理念的深入，监管部门制定并出台了一系列与企业社会责任信息披露有关的政策和法规，用以规范和引导企业社会责任信息的披露工作。本文以有效市场理论、信息不对称理论和利益相关者理论为基础，将2010-2018年香港证券交易所上市公司为作为研究对象，运用实证研究的方法，将企业社会责任融入股票崩盘风险的研究视角。本文结合理论演绎和实证检验的方法，突破已有文献以收益框架为研究视角的限制，从金融资本市场的角度出发研究企业社会责任的崩盘效应，系统的探索了企业社会责任影响股票崩盘风险的效应及其影响因素。研究结果显示，对比未披露企业社会责任的公司而言，披露企业社会责任相关信息的公司，未来股价崩盘风险越小。基于香港股市主要以机构投资者为主，进一步考察了社会责任信息披露和机构投资者对股价未来崩盘风险的交互作用，研究发现在机构持股比例越低的公司中，企业社会责任信息披露对未来崩盘效应的抑制作用越明显。此外，本文以独立董事占董事会人员比例作为企业治理因素，探索了社会责任信息披露和董事会独立性对股价崩盘风险的交互作用，研究发现企业董事独立性越强，社会责任信息披露对股票崩盘风险的抑制作用更为显著。最后，相对于非国有企业而言，国有企业性质削弱了企业社会责任信息披露对未来崩盘效应的抑制作用。

ContributorsHe, Jie (Author) / Zhu, David, H. (Thesis advisor) / Zhang, Jie (Thesis advisor) / Hu, Jie (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)

Created2021

中国房地产基金资产配置的影响因素

Description改革开放四十年，社会财富大量累积，目前国内个人可投资产总额超过190万亿元，专家预测2023年规模将达到220万亿元以上，高净值人群数量不断增加，其财富管理的需求也在不断提升。但随着近年来中国经济增速下行压力增大、市场波动加剧，资产配置在财富管理中的重要性不断提升。资产配置的核心在于资产种类的多元化，而地产基金作为与地产密切相关却又具有相对灵活性和分散性的金融资产，在发达国家如美国、新加坡等地均占据居民资产配置的重要环节，但中国居民配置比例仍然较低，虽然已经有部分超高净值客户将房地产基金作为其资产配置的一部分，但未来随着政策和投资者认知的变化，房地产基金在资产配置中的比例和功能仍有很大的空间。国内对于房地产私募基金的研究主要集中在管理模式、运营方法和法律风险上，更关注基金本身。国内房地产基金的发展阶段仍比较初期，需要参考国外发展的情况进行借鉴，本文将地产基金纳入资产配置的框架，通过客户调研，应用多元线性回归的方法，分析房地产私募基金的产品因素、政策因素及机构因素对客户配置房地产私募基金比例的影响，并通过分析结论，对基金管理人提出有效建议。

ContributorsZhu, Hong (Author) / Shao, Benjamin (Thesis advisor) / Wu, Fei (Thesis advisor) / Hu, Jie (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)

Created2021

Does the Development of Digital Finance Alleviate the Credit Financing Constraints of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises?

Description

China’s digital economy has developed rapidly after the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. As an important part of the digital economy, the application and development of digital finance has provided a better path for financial institutions about services innovation and business development. Small and medium-sized enterprises…

China’s digital economy has developed rapidly after the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. As an important part of the digital economy, the application and development of digital finance has provided a better path for financial institutions about services innovation and business development. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) account for a large proportion of the number of enterprises in China. They affected the society deeply on various aspects such as economic growth, employment, and innovation. However, financing constraints characterized by “difficult requirements” and “high cost” have long restricted the development of small and medium-sized enterprises. In recent years, the growth rate of the international economy has slowed down in an all-round way due to the impact of the epidemic. The SMEs have become more severe in this environment with stronger demands for funds. The rapid development of digital finance provides a technical environment for substantially improving the availability of loans for SMEs. As the main source of financing for small and medium-sized enterprises, commercial banks can deal with the problem of information asymmetry between them and SMEs easily through comprehensive digital transformation. Furthermore, the digital transformation of commercial banks could alleviate the financing constraints of SMEs and allocate more credit resources for SMEs. This study uses Peking University’s digital financial inclusive index and the SMEs’ loan data from the specific commercial bank for empirical analysis. The results demonstrate that the development of digital finance can alleviate the financing constraints of SMEs and reduce the information asymmetry between banks and enterprises. Moreover, the digital finance could also improve the overall business efficiency of commercial banks. In addition, SMEs with relatively in-depth digital transformation are easier for taking advantage of the opportunity of digital financial development to alleviate their own financing constraints. This study provides effective suggestions for the administrative department to formulate relevant guiding policies for digital financial development, commercial banks’ digital business strategy formulation, and more financial resource allocation for SMEs with development prospects based on the research conclusions.

ContributorsOu, Hong (Author) / Zhu, David (Thesis advisor) / Li, Xianglin (Thesis advisor) / Hu, Jie (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)

Created2024

An Empirical Study on the Accuracy of Analysts' Long-term Earnings Forecast

Description

With the continuous development of the Chinese capital market over the past thirty years, the securities analyst industry has experienced a process of transformation from a reckless period to a golden time. One of the most important signals is that securities analysts are increasingly conducting research report providing long-term earnings…

With the continuous development of the Chinese capital market over the past thirty years, the securities analyst industry has experienced a process of transformation from a reckless period to a golden time. One of the most important signals is that securities analysts are increasingly conducting research report providing long-term earnings forecasts for the company. However, current research on analysts is limited to their short-term forecasting behavior, and there is little on analysts' long-term earnings forecasts. Therefore, this article takes the research on analysts' long-term forecast reports issued by analysts on A-share listed companies, and conducts an empirical study on the analysts' forecasts accuracy and its influencing factors. First, the author combed the research literature related to analyst forecasts and selected variables from three dimensions, including company characteristics (financial indicators and non-financial indicators), analyst characteristics and affiliated institution characteristics; secondly, considering the high-dimensionality of the influencing factors, this paper uses the method of combining machine learning and traditional regression to conduct empirical research; finally, the research tested the heterogeneity of influencing factors from two perspectives, including time and industry.The results of this article show that the long-term profit forecasts of analysts in China have advantages over traditional statistical models. More than 60% of analysts provide profit forecasts that are better than statistical models. Afterwards, when examining the factors that affected the accuracy of analysts’ forecasts, it found that although analyst and institutional characteristics affected analysts’ predictions to a certain extent, company characteristics are the most important variables among them all. As the time goes by, the influence of non-financial factors on forecast accuracy gradually decreasing, but analyst characteristics continue to strengthen. In addition, cyclical industries are more difficult to predict than companies in non-cyclical industries, and the difficulty of prediction will not be reduced with the analyst efforts. This research can help analysts optimizing their forecasting behavior and prompts investors to understand analysts' reports more deeply, which makes them using analyst forecast data to make investment decisions in a rationally ways, and it can also help to promote the securities pricing efficiency and development of Chinese capital market.

ContributorsRao, Gang (Author) / Shen, Wei (Thesis advisor) / Yan, Hong (Thesis advisor) / Hu, Jie (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)