ASU Electronic Theses and Dissertations
This collection includes most of the ASU Theses and Dissertations from 2011 to present. ASU Theses and Dissertations are available in downloadable PDF format; however, a small percentage of items are under embargo. Information about the dissertations/theses includes degree information, committee members, an abstract, supporting data or media.
In addition to the electronic theses found in the ASU Digital Repository, ASU Theses and Dissertations can be found in the ASU Library Catalog.
Dissertations and Theses granted by Arizona State University are archived and made available through a joint effort of the ASU Graduate College and the ASU Libraries. For more information or questions about this collection contact or visit the Digital Repository ETD Library Guide or contact the ASU Graduate College at gradformat@asu.edu.
Displaying 1 - 5 of 5
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- All Subjects: Stock Prediction
- All Subjects: Public Opinion
- Creators: Davulcu, Hasan
Description
Micro-blogging platforms like Twitter have become some of the most popular sites for people to share and express their views and opinions about public events like debates, sports events or other news articles. These social updates by people complement the written news articles or transcripts of events in giving the popular public opinion about these events. So it would be useful to annotate the transcript with tweets. The technical challenge is to align the tweets with the correct segment of the transcript. ET-LDA by Hu et al [9] addresses this issue by modeling the whole process with an LDA-based graphical model. The system segments the transcript into coherent and meaningful parts and also determines if a tweet is a general tweet about the event or it refers to a particular segment of the transcript. One characteristic of the Hu et al’s model is that it expects all the data to be available upfront and uses batch inference procedure. But in many cases we find that data is not available beforehand, and it is often streaming. In such cases it is infeasible to repeatedly run the batch inference algorithm. My thesis presents an online inference algorithm for the ET-LDA model, with a continuous stream of tweet data and compare their runtime and performance to existing algorithms.
ContributorsAcharya, Anirudh (Author) / Kambhampati, Subbarao (Thesis advisor) / Davulcu, Hasan (Committee member) / Tong, Hanghang (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
In trading, volume is a measure of how much stock has been exchanged in a given period of time. Since every stock is distinctive and has an alternate measure of shares, volume can be contrasted with historical volume inside a stock to spot changes. It is likewise used to affirm value patterns, breakouts, and spot potential reversals. In my thesis, I hypothesize that the concept of trading volume can be extrapolated to social media (Twitter).
The ubiquity of social media, especially Twitter, in financial market has been overly resonant in the past couple of years. With the growth of its (Twitter) usage by news channels, financial experts and pandits, the global economy does seem to hinge on 140 characters. By analyzing the number of tweets hash tagged to a stock, a strong relation can be established between the number of people talking about it, to the trading volume of the stock.
In my work, I overt this relation and find a state of the breakout when the volume goes beyond a characterized support or resistance level.
The ubiquity of social media, especially Twitter, in financial market has been overly resonant in the past couple of years. With the growth of its (Twitter) usage by news channels, financial experts and pandits, the global economy does seem to hinge on 140 characters. By analyzing the number of tweets hash tagged to a stock, a strong relation can be established between the number of people talking about it, to the trading volume of the stock.
In my work, I overt this relation and find a state of the breakout when the volume goes beyond a characterized support or resistance level.
ContributorsAwasthi, Piyush (Author) / Davulcu, Hasan (Thesis advisor) / Tong, Hanghang (Committee member) / Sen, Arunabha (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
There have been extensive research in how news and twitter feeds can affect the outcome of a given stock. However, a majority of this research has studied the short term effects of sentiment with a given stock price. Within this research, I studied the long-term effects of a given stock price using fundamental analysis techniques. Within this research, I collected both sentiment data and fundamental data for Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp., and Peabody Energy Corp. Using a neural network algorithm, I found that sentiment does have an effect on the annual growth of these companies but the fundamentals are more relevant when determining overall growth. The stocks which show more consistent growth hold more importance on the previous year’s stock price but companies which have less consistency in their growth showed more reliance on the revenue growth and sentiment on the overall company and CEO. I discuss how I collected my research data and used a multi-layered perceptron to predict a threshold growth of a given stock. The threshold used for this particular research was 10%. I then showed the prediction of this threshold using my perceptron and afterwards, perform an f anova test on my choice of features. The results showed the fundamentals being the better predictor of stock information but fundamentals came in a close second in several cases, proving sentiment does hold an effect over long term growth.
ContributorsReeves, Tyler Joseph (Author) / Davulcu, Hasan (Thesis advisor) / Baral, Chitta (Committee member) / Cesta, John (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
Stock market news and investing tips are popular topics in Twitter. In this dissertation, first I utilize a 5-year financial news corpus comprising over 50,000 articles collected from the NASDAQ website matching the 30 stock symbols in Dow Jones Index (DJI) to train a directional stock price prediction system based on news content. Next, I proceed to show that information in articles indicated by breaking Tweet volumes leads to a statistically significant boost in the hourly directional prediction accuracies for the DJI stock prices mentioned in these articles. Secondly, I show that using document-level sentiment extraction does not yield a statistically significant boost in the directional predictive accuracies in the presence of other 1-gram keyword features. Thirdly I test the performance of the system on several time-frames and identify the 4 hour time-frame for both the price charts and for Tweet breakout detection as the best time-frame combination. Finally, I develop a set of price momentum based trade exit rules to cut losing trades early and to allow the winning trades run longer. I show that the Tweet volume breakout based trading system with the price momentum based exit rules not only improves the winning accuracy and the return on investment, but it also lowers the maximum drawdown and achieves the highest overall return over maximum drawdown.
ContributorsAlostad, Hana (Author) / Davulcu, Hasan (Thesis advisor) / Corman, Steven (Committee member) / Tong, Hanghang (Committee member) / He, Jingrui (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
In this thesis multiple approaches are explored to enhance sentiment analysis of tweets. A standard sentiment analysis model with customized features is first trained and tested to establish a baseline. This is compared to an existing topic based mixture model and a new proposed topic based vector model both of which use Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) for topic modeling. The proposed topic based vector model has higher accuracies in terms of averaged F scores than the other two models.
ContributorsBaskaran, Swetha (Author) / Davulcu, Hasan (Thesis advisor) / Sen, Arunabha (Committee member) / Hsiao, Ihan (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016