ASU Electronic Theses and Dissertations
This collection includes most of the ASU Theses and Dissertations from 2011 to present. ASU Theses and Dissertations are available in downloadable PDF format; however, a small percentage of items are under embargo. Information about the dissertations/theses includes degree information, committee members, an abstract, supporting data or media.
In addition to the electronic theses found in the ASU Digital Repository, ASU Theses and Dissertations can be found in the ASU Library Catalog.
Dissertations and Theses granted by Arizona State University are archived and made available through a joint effort of the ASU Graduate College and the ASU Libraries. For more information or questions about this collection contact or visit the Digital Repository ETD Library Guide or contact the ASU Graduate College at gradformat@asu.edu.
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Description
With the continued increase in the amount of renewable generation in the formof distributed energy resources, reliability planning has progressively become a more
challenging task for the modern power system. This is because with higher penetration
of renewable generation, the system has to bear a higher degree of variability
and uncertainty. One way to address this problem is by generating realistic scenarios
that complement and supplement actual system conditions. This thesis presents
a methodology to create such correlated synthetic scenarios for load and renewable
generation using machine learning.
Machine learning algorithms need to have ample amounts of data available to
them for training purposes. However, real-world datasets are often skewed in the
distribution of the different events in the sample space. Data augmentation and
scenario generation techniques are often utilized to complement the datasets with
additional samples or by filling in missing data points. Datasets pertaining to the
electric power system are especially prone to having very few samples for certain
events, such as abnormal operating conditions, as they are not very common in an
actual power system. A recurrent generative adversarial network (GAN) model is
presented in this thesis to generate solar and load scenarios in a correlated manner
using an actual dataset obtained from a power utility located in the U.S. Southwest.
The generated solar and load profiles are verified both statistically and by implementation
on a simulated test system, and the performance of correlated scenario
generation vs. uncorrelated scenario generation is investigated. Given the interconnected
relationships between the variables of the dataset, it is observed that correlated
scenario generation results in more realistic synthetic scenarios, particularly for abnormal
system conditions. When combined with actual but scarce abnormal conditions,
the augmented dataset of system conditions provides a better platform for performing contingency studies for a more thorough reliability planning.
The proposed scenario generation method is scalable and can be modified to work
with different time-series datasets. Moreover, when the model is trained in a conditional
manner, it can be used to synthesise any number of scenarios for the different
events present in a given dataset. In summary, this thesis explores scenario generation
using a recurrent conditional GAN and investigates the benefits of correlated
generation compared to uncorrelated synthesis of profiles for the reliability planning
problem of power systems.
ContributorsBilal, Muhammad (Author) / Pal, Anamitra (Thesis advisor) / Holbert, Keith (Committee member) / Ayyanar, Raja (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022
Description
Nowadays, the widespread use of distributed generators (DGs) raises significant challenges for the design, planning, and operation of power systems. To avoid the harm caused by excessive DGs, evaluating the reliability and sustainability of the system with high penetration of DGs is essential. The concept of hosting capacity (HC) is used to achieve this purpose. It is to assess the capability of a distribution grid to accommodate DGs without causing damage or updating facilities. To obtain the HC value, traditional HC analysis methods face many problems, including the computational difficulties caused by the large-scale simulations and calculations, lacking the considering temporal correlation from data to data, and the inefficient on real-time analysis. This paper proposes a machine learning-based method, the Spatial-Temporal Long Short-Term Memory (ST-LSTM), to overcome these drawbacks using the traditional HC analysis method. This method will significantly reduce the requirement of calculations and simulations, and obtain HC results in real-time. Using the time-series load profiles and the longest path method, ST-LSTMs can capture the temporal information and spatial information respectively. Moreover, compared with the basic Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model, this modified model will improve the performance in the HC analysis by some specific designs, which are the sensitivity gate to consider voltage sensitivity information, the dual forget gates to build spatial and temporal correlation.
ContributorsWu, Jiaqi (Author) / Weng, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Ayyanar, Raja (Committee member) / Cook, Elizabeth (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2021