ASU Electronic Theses and Dissertations
This collection includes most of the ASU Theses and Dissertations from 2011 to present. ASU Theses and Dissertations are available in downloadable PDF format; however, a small percentage of items are under embargo. Information about the dissertations/theses includes degree information, committee members, an abstract, supporting data or media.
In addition to the electronic theses found in the ASU Digital Repository, ASU Theses and Dissertations can be found in the ASU Library Catalog.
Dissertations and Theses granted by Arizona State University are archived and made available through a joint effort of the ASU Graduate College and the ASU Libraries. For more information or questions about this collection contact or visit the Digital Repository ETD Library Guide or contact the ASU Graduate College at gradformat@asu.edu.
Displaying 1 - 4 of 4
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- All Subjects: Statistics
- Creators: Davulcu, Hasan
- Creators: Rey, Sergio
Description
In the study of regional economic growth and convergence, the distribution dynamics approach which interrogates the evolution of the cross-sectional distribution as a whole and is concerned with both the external and internal dynamics of the distribution has received wide usage. However, many methodological issues remain to be resolved before valid inferences and conclusions can be drawn from empirical research. Among them, spatial effects including spatial heterogeneity and spatial dependence invalidate the assumption of independent and identical distributions underlying the conventional maximum likelihood techniques while the availability of small samples in regional settings questions the usage of the asymptotic properties. This dissertation is comprised of three papers targeted at addressing these two issues. The first paper investigates whether the conventional regional income mobility estimators are still suitable in the presence of spatial dependence and/or a small sample. It is approached through a series of Monte Carlo experiments which require the proposal of a novel data generating process (DGP) capable of generating spatially dependent time series. The second paper moves to the statistical tests for detecting specific forms of spatial (spatiotemporal) effects in the discrete Markov chain model, investigating their robustness to the alternative spatial effect, sensitivity to discretization granularity, and properties in small sample settings. The third paper proposes discrete kernel estimators with cross-validated bandwidths as an alternative to maximum likelihood estimators in small sample settings. It is demonstrated that the performance of discrete kernel estimators offers improvement when the sample size is small. Taken together, the three papers constitute an endeavor to relax the restrictive assumptions of spatial independence and spatial homogeneity, as well as demonstrating the difference between the small sample and asymptotic properties for conventionally adopted maximum likelihood estimators towards a more valid inferential framework for the distribution dynamics approach to the study of regional economic growth and convergence.
ContributorsKang, Wei (Author) / Rey, Sergio (Thesis advisor) / Fotheringham, A. Stewart (Committee member) / Ye, Xinyue (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
Due to large data resources generated by online educational applications, Educational Data Mining (EDM) has improved learning effects in different ways: Students Visualization, Recommendations for students, Students Modeling, Grouping Students, etc. A lot of programming assignments have the features like automating submissions, examining the test cases to verify the correctness, but limited studies compared different statistical techniques with latest frameworks, and interpreted models in a unified approach.
In this thesis, several data mining algorithms have been applied to analyze students’ code assignment submission data from a real classroom study. The goal of this work is to explore
and predict students’ performances. Multiple machine learning models and the model accuracy were evaluated based on the Shapley Additive Explanation.
The Cross-Validation shows the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree has the best precision 85.93% with average 82.90%. Features like Component grade, Due Date, Submission Times have higher impact than others. Baseline model received lower precision due to lack of non-linear fitting.
In this thesis, several data mining algorithms have been applied to analyze students’ code assignment submission data from a real classroom study. The goal of this work is to explore
and predict students’ performances. Multiple machine learning models and the model accuracy were evaluated based on the Shapley Additive Explanation.
The Cross-Validation shows the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree has the best precision 85.93% with average 82.90%. Features like Component grade, Due Date, Submission Times have higher impact than others. Baseline model received lower precision due to lack of non-linear fitting.
ContributorsTian, Wenbo (Author) / Hsiao, Ihan (Thesis advisor) / Bazzi, Rida (Committee member) / Davulcu, Hasan (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
Description
The dawn of Internet of Things (IoT) has opened the opportunity for mainstream adoption of machine learning analytics. However, most research in machine learning has focused on discovery of new algorithms or fine-tuning the performance of existing algorithms. Little exists on the process of taking an algorithm from the lab-environment into the real-world, culminating in sustained value. Real-world applications are typically characterized by dynamic non-stationary systems with requirements around feasibility, stability and maintainability. Not much has been done to establish standards around the unique analytics demands of real-world scenarios.
This research explores the problem of the why so few of the published algorithms enter production and furthermore, fewer end up generating sustained value. The dissertation proposes a ‘Design for Deployment’ (DFD) framework to successfully build machine learning analytics so they can be deployed to generate sustained value. The framework emphasizes and elaborates the often neglected but immensely important latter steps of an analytics process: ‘Evaluation’ and ‘Deployment’. A representative evaluation framework is proposed that incorporates the temporal-shifts and dynamism of real-world scenarios. Additionally, the recommended infrastructure allows analytics projects to pivot rapidly when a particular venture does not materialize. Deployment needs and apprehensions of the industry are identified and gaps addressed through a 4-step process for sustainable deployment. Lastly, the need for analytics as a functional area (like finance and IT) is identified to maximize the return on machine-learning deployment.
The framework and process is demonstrated in semiconductor manufacturing – it is highly complex process involving hundreds of optical, electrical, chemical, mechanical, thermal, electrochemical and software processes which makes it a highly dynamic non-stationary system. Due to the 24/7 uptime requirements in manufacturing, high-reliability and fail-safe are a must. Moreover, the ever growing volumes mean that the system must be highly scalable. Lastly, due to the high cost of change, sustained value proposition is a must for any proposed changes. Hence the context is ideal to explore the issues involved. The enterprise use-cases are used to demonstrate the robustness of the framework in addressing challenges encountered in the end-to-end process of productizing machine learning analytics in dynamic read-world scenarios.
This research explores the problem of the why so few of the published algorithms enter production and furthermore, fewer end up generating sustained value. The dissertation proposes a ‘Design for Deployment’ (DFD) framework to successfully build machine learning analytics so they can be deployed to generate sustained value. The framework emphasizes and elaborates the often neglected but immensely important latter steps of an analytics process: ‘Evaluation’ and ‘Deployment’. A representative evaluation framework is proposed that incorporates the temporal-shifts and dynamism of real-world scenarios. Additionally, the recommended infrastructure allows analytics projects to pivot rapidly when a particular venture does not materialize. Deployment needs and apprehensions of the industry are identified and gaps addressed through a 4-step process for sustainable deployment. Lastly, the need for analytics as a functional area (like finance and IT) is identified to maximize the return on machine-learning deployment.
The framework and process is demonstrated in semiconductor manufacturing – it is highly complex process involving hundreds of optical, electrical, chemical, mechanical, thermal, electrochemical and software processes which makes it a highly dynamic non-stationary system. Due to the 24/7 uptime requirements in manufacturing, high-reliability and fail-safe are a must. Moreover, the ever growing volumes mean that the system must be highly scalable. Lastly, due to the high cost of change, sustained value proposition is a must for any proposed changes. Hence the context is ideal to explore the issues involved. The enterprise use-cases are used to demonstrate the robustness of the framework in addressing challenges encountered in the end-to-end process of productizing machine learning analytics in dynamic read-world scenarios.
ContributorsShahapurkar, Som (Author) / Liu, Huan (Thesis advisor) / Davulcu, Hasan (Committee member) / Ameresh, Ashish (Committee member) / He, Jingrui (Committee member) / Tuv, Eugene (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
A major challenge in health-related policy and program evaluation research is attributing underlying causal relationships where complicated processes may exist in natural or quasi-experimental settings. Spatial interaction and heterogeneity between units at individual or group levels can violate both components of the Stable-Unit-Treatment-Value-Assumption (SUTVA) that are core to the counterfactual framework, making treatment effects difficult to assess. New approaches are needed in health studies to develop spatially dynamic causal modeling methods to both derive insights from data that are sensitive to spatial differences and dependencies, and also be able to rely on a more robust, dynamic technical infrastructure needed for decision-making. To address this gap with a focus on causal applications theoretically, methodologically and technologically, I (1) develop a theoretical spatial framework (within single-level panel econometric methodology) that extends existing theories and methods of causal inference, which tend to ignore spatial dynamics; (2) demonstrate how this spatial framework can be applied in empirical research; and (3) implement a new spatial infrastructure framework that integrates and manages the required data for health systems evaluation.
The new spatially explicit counterfactual framework considers how spatial effects impact treatment choice, treatment variation, and treatment effects. To illustrate this new methodological framework, I first replicate a classic quasi-experimental study that evaluates the effect of drinking age policy on mortality in the United States from 1970 to 1984, and further extend it with a spatial perspective. In another example, I evaluate food access dynamics in Chicago from 2007 to 2014 by implementing advanced spatial analytics that better account for the complex patterns of food access, and quasi-experimental research design to distill the impact of the Great Recession on the foodscape. Inference interpretation is sensitive to both research design framing and underlying processes that drive geographically distributed relationships. Finally, I advance a new Spatial Data Science Infrastructure to integrate and manage data in dynamic, open environments for public health systems research and decision- making. I demonstrate an infrastructure prototype in a final case study, developed in collaboration with health department officials and community organizations.
The new spatially explicit counterfactual framework considers how spatial effects impact treatment choice, treatment variation, and treatment effects. To illustrate this new methodological framework, I first replicate a classic quasi-experimental study that evaluates the effect of drinking age policy on mortality in the United States from 1970 to 1984, and further extend it with a spatial perspective. In another example, I evaluate food access dynamics in Chicago from 2007 to 2014 by implementing advanced spatial analytics that better account for the complex patterns of food access, and quasi-experimental research design to distill the impact of the Great Recession on the foodscape. Inference interpretation is sensitive to both research design framing and underlying processes that drive geographically distributed relationships. Finally, I advance a new Spatial Data Science Infrastructure to integrate and manage data in dynamic, open environments for public health systems research and decision- making. I demonstrate an infrastructure prototype in a final case study, developed in collaboration with health department officials and community organizations.
ContributorsKolak, Marynia Aniela (Author) / Anselin, Luc (Thesis advisor) / Rey, Sergio (Committee member) / Koschinsky, Julia (Committee member) / Maciejewski, Ross (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017