ASU Electronic Theses and Dissertations
This collection includes most of the ASU Theses and Dissertations from 2011 to present. ASU Theses and Dissertations are available in downloadable PDF format; however, a small percentage of items are under embargo. Information about the dissertations/theses includes degree information, committee members, an abstract, supporting data or media.
In addition to the electronic theses found in the ASU Digital Repository, ASU Theses and Dissertations can be found in the ASU Library Catalog.
Dissertations and Theses granted by Arizona State University are archived and made available through a joint effort of the ASU Graduate College and the ASU Libraries. For more information or questions about this collection contact or visit the Digital Repository ETD Library Guide or contact the ASU Graduate College at gradformat@asu.edu.
Displaying 1 - 10 of 261
Filtering by
- All Subjects: Statistics
- All Subjects: Alternative Energy
Description
Many longitudinal studies, especially in clinical trials, suffer from missing data issues. Most estimation procedures assume that the missing values are ignorable or missing at random (MAR). However, this assumption leads to unrealistic simplification and is implausible for many cases. For example, an investigator is examining the effect of treatment on depression. Subjects are scheduled with doctors on a regular basis and asked questions about recent emotional situations. Patients who are experiencing severe depression are more likely to miss an appointment and leave the data missing for that particular visit. Data that are not missing at random may produce bias in results if the missing mechanism is not taken into account. In other words, the missing mechanism is related to the unobserved responses. Data are said to be non-ignorable missing if the probabilities of missingness depend on quantities that might not be included in the model. Classical pattern-mixture models for non-ignorable missing values are widely used for longitudinal data analysis because they do not require explicit specification of the missing mechanism, with the data stratified according to a variety of missing patterns and a model specified for each stratum. However, this usually results in under-identifiability, because of the need to estimate many stratum-specific parameters even though the eventual interest is usually on the marginal parameters. Pattern mixture models have the drawback that a large sample is usually required. In this thesis, two studies are presented. The first study is motivated by an open problem from pattern mixture models. Simulation studies from this part show that information in the missing data indicators can be well summarized by a simple continuous latent structure, indicating that a large number of missing data patterns may be accounted by a simple latent factor. Simulation findings that are obtained in the first study lead to a novel model, a continuous latent factor model (CLFM). The second study develops CLFM which is utilized for modeling the joint distribution of missing values and longitudinal outcomes. The proposed CLFM model is feasible even for small sample size applications. The detailed estimation theory, including estimating techniques from both frequentist and Bayesian perspectives is presented. Model performance and evaluation are studied through designed simulations and three applications. Simulation and application settings change from correctly-specified missing data mechanism to mis-specified mechanism and include different sample sizes from longitudinal studies. Among three applications, an AIDS study includes non-ignorable missing values; the Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test data have no indication on missing data mechanism and it will be applied to a sensitivity analysis; the Growth of Language and Early Literacy Skills in Preschoolers with Developmental Speech and Language Impairment study, however, has full complete data and will be used to conduct a robust analysis. The CLFM model is shown to provide more precise estimators, specifically on intercept and slope related parameters, compared with Roy's latent class model and the classic linear mixed model. This advantage will be more obvious when a small sample size is the case, where Roy's model experiences challenges on estimation convergence. The proposed CLFM model is also robust when missing data are ignorable as demonstrated through a study on Growth of Language and Early Literacy Skills in Preschoolers.
ContributorsZhang, Jun (Author) / Reiser, Mark R. (Thesis advisor) / Barber, Jarrett (Thesis advisor) / Kao, Ming-Hung (Committee member) / Wilson, Jeffrey (Committee member) / St Louis, Robert D. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Nowadays product reliability becomes the top concern of the manufacturers and customers always prefer the products with good performances under long period. In order to estimate the lifetime of the product, accelerated life testing (ALT) is introduced because most of the products can last years even decades. Much research has been done in the ALT area and optimal design for ALT is a major topic. This dissertation consists of three main studies. First, a methodology of finding optimal design for ALT with right censoring and interval censoring have been developed and it employs the proportional hazard (PH) model and generalized linear model (GLM) to simplify the computational process. A sensitivity study is also given to show the effects brought by parameters to the designs. Second, an extended version of I-optimal design for ALT is discussed and then a dual-objective design criterion is defined and showed with several examples. Also in order to evaluate different candidate designs, several graphical tools are developed. Finally, when there are more than one models available, different model checking designs are discussed.
ContributorsYang, Tao (Author) / Pan, Rong (Thesis advisor) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Committee member) / Borror, Connie (Committee member) / Rigdon, Steve (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
This work presents two complementary studies that propose heuristic methods to capture characteristics of data using the ensemble learning method of random forest. The first study is motivated by the problem in education of determining teacher effectiveness in student achievement. Value-added models (VAMs), constructed as linear mixed models, use students’ test scores as outcome variables and teachers’ contributions as random effects to ascribe changes in student performance to the teachers who have taught them. The VAMs teacher score is the empirical best linear unbiased predictor (EBLUP). This approach is limited by the adequacy of the assumed model specification with respect to the unknown underlying model. In that regard, this study proposes alternative ways to rank teacher effects that are not dependent on a given model by introducing two variable importance measures (VIMs), the node-proportion and the covariate-proportion. These VIMs are novel because they take into account the final configuration of the terminal nodes in the constitutive trees in a random forest. In a simulation study, under a variety of conditions, true rankings of teacher effects are compared with estimated rankings obtained using three sources: the newly proposed VIMs, existing VIMs, and EBLUPs from the assumed linear model specification. The newly proposed VIMs outperform all others in various scenarios where the model was misspecified. The second study develops two novel interaction measures. These measures could be used within but are not restricted to the VAM framework. The distribution-based measure is constructed to identify interactions in a general setting where a model specification is not assumed in advance. In turn, the mean-based measure is built to estimate interactions when the model specification is assumed to be linear. Both measures are unique in their construction; they take into account not only the outcome values, but also the internal structure of the trees in a random forest. In a separate simulation study, under a variety of conditions, the proposed measures are found to identify and estimate second-order interactions.
ContributorsValdivia, Arturo (Author) / Eubank, Randall (Thesis advisor) / Young, Dennis (Committee member) / Reiser, Mark R. (Committee member) / Kao, Ming-Hung (Committee member) / Broatch, Jennifer (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Traditional approaches to modeling microgrids include the behavior of each inverter operating in a particular network configuration and at a particular operating point. Such models quickly become computationally intensive for large systems. Similarly, traditional approaches to control do not use advanced methodologies and suffer from poor performance and limited operating range. In this document a linear model is derived for an inverter connected to the Thevenin equivalent of a microgrid. This model is then compared to a nonlinear simulation model and analyzed using the open and closed loop systems in both the time and frequency domains. The modeling error is quantified with emphasis on its use for controller design purposes. Control design examples are given using a Glover McFarlane controller, gain sched- uled Glover McFarlane controller, and bumpless transfer controller which are compared to the standard droop control approach. These examples serve as a guide to illustrate the use of multi-variable modeling techniques in the context of robust controller design and show that gain scheduled MIMO control techniques can extend the operating range of a microgrid. A hardware implementation is used to compare constant gain droop controllers with Glover McFarlane controllers and shows a clear advantage of the Glover McFarlane approach.
ContributorsSteenis, Joel (Author) / Ayyanar, Raja (Thesis advisor) / Mittelmann, Hans (Committee member) / Tsakalis, Konstantinos (Committee member) / Tylavsky, Daniel (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Statistics is taught at every level of education, yet teachers often have to assume their students have no knowledge of statistics and start from scratch each time they set out to teach statistics. The motivation for this experimental study comes from interest in exploring educational applications of augmented reality (AR) delivered via mobile technology that could potentially provide rich, contextualized learning for understanding concepts related to statistics education. This study examined the effects of AR experiences for learning basic statistical concepts. Using a 3 x 2 research design, this study compared learning gains of 252 undergraduate and graduate students from a pre- and posttest given before and after interacting with one of three types of augmented reality experiences, a high AR experience (interacting with three dimensional images coupled with movement through a physical space), a low AR experience (interacting with three dimensional images without movement), or no AR experience (two dimensional images without movement). Two levels of collaboration (pairs and no pairs) were also included. Additionally, student perceptions toward collaboration opportunities and engagement were compared across the six treatment conditions. Other demographic information collected included the students' previous statistics experience, as well as their comfort level in using mobile devices. The moderating variables included prior knowledge (high, average, and low) as measured by the student's pretest score. Taking into account prior knowledge, students with low prior knowledge assigned to either high or low AR experience had statistically significant higher learning gains than those assigned to a no AR experience. On the other hand, the results showed no statistical significance between students assigned to work individually versus in pairs. Students assigned to both high and low AR experience perceived a statistically significant higher level of engagement than their no AR counterparts. Students with low prior knowledge benefited the most from the high AR condition in learning gains. Overall, the AR application did well for providing a hands-on experience working with statistical data. Further research on AR and its relationship to spatial cognition, situated learning, high order skill development, performance support, and other classroom applications for learning is still needed.
ContributorsConley, Quincy (Author) / Atkinson, Robert K (Thesis advisor) / Nguyen, Frank (Committee member) / Nelson, Brian C (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Dimensionality assessment is an important component of evaluating item response data. Existing approaches to evaluating common assumptions of unidimensionality, such as DIMTEST (Nandakumar & Stout, 1993; Stout, 1987; Stout, Froelich, & Gao, 2001), have been shown to work well under large-scale assessment conditions (e.g., large sample sizes and item pools; see e.g., Froelich & Habing, 2007). It remains to be seen how such procedures perform in the context of small-scale assessments characterized by relatively small sample sizes and/or short tests. The fact that some procedures come with minimum allowable values for characteristics of the data, such as the number of items, may even render them unusable for some small-scale assessments. Other measures designed to assess dimensionality do not come with such limitations and, as such, may perform better under conditions that do not lend themselves to evaluation via statistics that rely on asymptotic theory. The current work aimed to evaluate the performance of one such metric, the standardized generalized dimensionality discrepancy measure (SGDDM; Levy & Svetina, 2011; Levy, Xu, Yel, & Svetina, 2012), under both large- and small-scale testing conditions. A Monte Carlo study was conducted to compare the performance of DIMTEST and the SGDDM statistic in terms of evaluating assumptions of unidimensionality in item response data under a variety of conditions, with an emphasis on the examination of these procedures in small-scale assessments. Similar to previous research, increases in either test length or sample size resulted in increased power. The DIMTEST procedure appeared to be a conservative test of the null hypothesis of unidimensionality. The SGDDM statistic exhibited rejection rates near the nominal rate of .05 under unidimensional conditions, though the reliability of these results may have been less than optimal due to high sampling variability resulting from a relatively limited number of replications. Power values were at or near 1.0 for many of the multidimensional conditions. It was only when the sample size was reduced to N = 100 that the two approaches diverged in performance. Results suggested that both procedures may be appropriate for sample sizes as low as N = 250 and tests as short as J = 12 (SGDDM) or J = 19 (DIMTEST). When used as a diagnostic tool, SGDDM may be appropriate with as few as N = 100 cases combined with J = 12 items. The study was somewhat limited in that it did not include any complex factorial designs, nor were the strength of item discrimination parameters or correlation between factors manipulated. It is recommended that further research be conducted with the inclusion of these factors, as well as an increase in the number of replications when using the SGDDM procedure.
ContributorsReichenberg, Ray E (Author) / Levy, Roy (Thesis advisor) / Thompson, Marilyn S. (Thesis advisor) / Green, Samuel B. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Parallel Monte Carlo applications require the pseudorandom numbers used on each processor to be independent in a probabilistic sense. The TestU01 software package is the standard testing suite for detecting stream dependence and other properties that make certain pseudorandom generators ineffective in parallel (as well as serial) settings. TestU01 employs two basic schemes for testing parallel generated streams. The first applies serial tests to the individual streams and then tests the resulting P-values for uniformity. The second turns all the parallel generated streams into one long vector and then applies serial tests to the resulting concatenated stream. Various forms of stream dependence can be missed by each approach because neither one fully addresses the multivariate nature of the accumulated data when generators are run in parallel. This dissertation identifies these potential faults in the parallel testing methodologies of TestU01 and investigates two different methods to better detect inter-stream dependencies: correlation motivated multivariate tests and vector time series based tests. These methods have been implemented in an extension to TestU01 built in C++ and the unique aspects of this extension are discussed. A variety of different generation scenarios are then examined using the TestU01 suite in concert with the extension. This enhanced software package is found to better detect certain forms of inter-stream dependencies than the original TestU01 suites of tests.
ContributorsIsmay, Chester (Author) / Eubank, Randall (Thesis advisor) / Young, Dennis (Committee member) / Kao, Ming-Hung (Committee member) / Lanchier, Nicolas (Committee member) / Reiser, Mark R. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
The object of this study was a 26 year old residential Photovoltaic (PV) monocrystalline silicon (c-Si) power plant, called Solar One, built by developer John F. Long in Phoenix, Arizona (a hot-dry field condition). The task for Arizona State University Photovoltaic Reliability Laboratory (ASU-PRL) graduate students was to evaluate the power plant through visual inspection, electrical performance, and infrared thermography. The purpose of this evaluation was to measure and understand the extent of degradation to the system along with the identification of the failure modes in this hot-dry climatic condition. This 4000 module bipolar system was originally installed with a 200 kW DC output of PV array (17 degree fixed tilt) and an AC output of 175 kVA. The system was shown to degrade approximately at a rate of 2.3% per year with no apparent potential induced degradation (PID) effect. The power plant is made of two arrays, the north array and the south array. Due to a limited time frame to execute this large project, this work was performed by two masters students (Jonathan Belmont and Kolapo Olakonu) and the test results are presented in two masters theses. This thesis presents the results obtained on the north array and the other thesis presents the results obtained on the south array. The resulting study showed that PV module design, array configuration, vandalism, installation methods and Arizona environmental conditions have had an effect on this system's longevity and reliability. Ultimately, encapsulation browning, higher series resistance (potentially due to solder bond fatigue) and non-cell interconnect ribbon breakages outside the modules were determined to be the primary causes for the power loss.
ContributorsBelmont, Jonathan (Author) / Tamizhmani, Govindasamy (Thesis advisor) / Henderson, Mark (Committee member) / Rogers, Bradley (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Dye sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) are currently being explored as a cheaper alternative to the more common silicon (Si) solar cell technology. In addition to the cost advantages, DSSCs show good performance in low light conditions and are not sensitive to varying angles of incident light like traditional Si cells. One of the major challenges facing DSSCs is loss of the liquid electrolyte, through evaporation or leakage, which lowers stability and leads to increased degradation. Current research with solid-state and quasi-solid DSSCs has shown success regarding a reduction of electrolyte loss, but at a cost of lower conversion efficiency output. The research work presented in this paper focuses on the effects of using nanoclay material as a gelator in the electrolyte of the DSSC. The data showed that the quasi-solid cells are more stable than their liquid electrolyte counterparts, and achieved equal or better I-V characteristics. The quasi-solid cells were fabricated with a gel electrolyte that was prepared by adding 7 wt% of Nanoclay, Nanomer® (1.31PS, montmorillonite clay surface modified with 15-35% octadecylamine and 0.5-5 wt% aminopropyltriethoxysilane, Aldrich) to the iodide/triiodide liquid electrolyte, (Iodolyte AN-50, Solaronix). Various gel concentrations were tested in order to find the optimal ratio of nanoclay to liquid. The gel electrolyte made with 7 wt% nanoclay was more viscous, but still thin enough to allow injection with a standard syringe. Batches of cells were fabricated with both liquid and gel electrolyte and were evaluated at STC conditions (25°C, 100 mW/cm2) over time. The gel cells achieved efficiencies as high as 9.18% compared to 9.65% achieved by the liquid cells. After 10 days, the liquid cell decreased to 1.75%, less than 20% of its maximum efficiency. By contrast, the gel cell's efficiency increased for two weeks, and did not decrease to 20% of maximum efficiency until 45 days. After several measurements, the liquid cells showed visible signs of leakage through the sealant, whereas the gel cells did not. This resistance to leakage likely contributed to the improved performance of the quasi-solid cells over time, and is a significant advantage over liquid electrolyte DSSCs.
ContributorsMain, Laura (Author) / Munukutla, Lakshmi (Thesis advisor) / Madakannan, Arunachalanadar (Committee member) / Polesky, Gerald (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
Potential induced degradation (PID) due to high system voltages is one of the major degradation mechanisms in photovoltaic (PV) modules, adversely affecting their performance due to the combined effects of the following factors: system voltage, superstrate/glass surface conductivity, encapsulant conductivity, silicon nitride anti-reflection coating property and interface property (glass/encapsulant; encapsulant/cell; encapsulant/backsheet). Previous studies carried out at ASU's Photovoltaic Reliability Laboratory (ASU-PRL) showed that only negative voltage bias (positive grounded systems) adversely affects the performance of commonly available crystalline silicon modules. In previous studies, the surface conductivity of the glass surface was obtained using either conductive carbon layer extending from the glass surface to the frame or humidity inside an environmental chamber. This thesis investigates the influence of glass surface conductivity disruption on PV modules. In this study, conductive carbon was applied only on the module's glass surface without extending to the frame and the surface conductivity was disrupted (no carbon layer) at 2cm distance from the periphery of frame inner edges. This study was carried out under dry heat at two different temperatures (60 °C and 85 °C) and three different negative bias voltages (-300V, -400V, and -600V). To replicate closeness to the field conditions, half of the selected modules were pre-stressed under damp heat for 1000 hours (DH 1000) and the remaining half under 200 hours of thermal cycling (TC 200). When the surface continuity was disrupted by maintaining a 2 cm gap from the frame to the edge of the conductive layer, as demonstrated in this study, the degradation was found to be absent or negligibly small even after 35 hours of negative bias at elevated temperatures. This preliminary study appears to indicate that the modules could become immune to PID losses if the continuity of the glass surface conductivity is disrupted at the inside boundary of the frame. The surface conductivity of the glass, due to water layer formation in a humid condition, close to the frame could be disrupted just by applying a water repelling (hydrophobic) but high transmittance surface coating (such as Teflon) or modifying the frame/glass edges with water repellent properties.
ContributorsTatapudi, Sai Ravi Vasista (Author) / Tamizhmani, Govindasamy (Thesis advisor) / Srinivasan, Devarajan (Committee member) / Rogers, Bradley (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012