ASU Electronic Theses and Dissertations
This collection includes most of the ASU Theses and Dissertations from 2011 to present. ASU Theses and Dissertations are available in downloadable PDF format; however, a small percentage of items are under embargo. Information about the dissertations/theses includes degree information, committee members, an abstract, supporting data or media.
In addition to the electronic theses found in the ASU Digital Repository, ASU Theses and Dissertations can be found in the ASU Library Catalog.
Dissertations and Theses granted by Arizona State University are archived and made available through a joint effort of the ASU Graduate College and the ASU Libraries. For more information or questions about this collection contact or visit the Digital Repository ETD Library Guide or contact the ASU Graduate College at gradformat@asu.edu.
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Description
Many studies over the past two decades examined the link between climate patterns and discharge, but few have attempted to study the effects of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on localized and watershed specific processes such as nutrient loading in the Southwestern United States. The Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is used to describe the state of the ENSO, with positive (negative) values referring to an El Niño condition (La Niña condition). This study examined the connection between the MEI and precipitation, discharge, and total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations in the Upper Salt River Watershed in Arizona. Unrestricted regression models (UMs) and restricted regression models (RMs) were used to investigate the relationship between the discharges in Tonto Creek and the Salt River as functions of the magnitude of the MEI, precipitation, and season (winter/summer). The results suggest that in addition to precipitation, the MEI/season relationship is an important factor for predicting discharge. Additionally, high discharge events were associated with high magnitude ENSO events, both El Niño and La Niña. An UM including discharge and season, and a RM (restricting the seasonal factor to zero), were applied to TN and TP concentrations in the Salt River. Discharge and seasonality were significant factors describing the variability in TN in the Salt River while discharge alone was the significant factor describing TP. TN and TP in Roosevelt Lake were evaluated as functions of both discharge and MEI. Some significant correlations were found but internal nutrient cycling as well as seasonal stratification of the water column of the lake likely masks the true relationships. Based on these results, the MEI is a useful predictor of discharge, as well as nutrient loading in the Salt River Watershed through the Salt River and Tonto Creek. A predictive model investigating the effect of ENSO on nutrient loading through discharge can illustrate the effects of large scale climate patterns on smaller systems.
ContributorsSversvold, Darren (Author) / Neuer, Susanne (Thesis advisor) / Elser, James (Committee member) / Fenichel, Eli (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
The southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) is listed as an endangered species throughout its range in the southwestern United States. Little is known about its sub-population spatial structure and how this impacts its population viability. In conjunction with being listed as endangered, a recovery plan was produced by the US Fish and Wildlife Service, with recovery units (sub-populations) roughly based on major river drainages. In the interest of examining this configuration of sub-populations and their impact on the measured population viability, I applied a multivariate auto-regressive state-space model to a spatially extensive time series of abundance data for the southwestern willow flycatcher over the period spanning 1995-2010 estimating critical growth parameters, correlation in environmental stochasticity or "synchronicity" between sub-populations (recovery units) and extinction risk of the sub-populations and the whole. The model estimates two parameters, the mean and variance of annual growth rate. Of the models I tested, I found the strongest support for a population model in which three of the recovery units were grouped (the Lower Colorado, Gila Basin, and Rio Grande recovery units) while keeping all others separate. This configuration has 6.6 times more support for the observed data than a configuration assigning each recovery unit to a separate sub-population, which is how they are circumscribed in the recovery plan. Given the best model, the mean growth rate is -0.0234 (CI95 -0.0939, 0.0412) with a variance of 0.0597 (CI95 0.0115, 0.1134). This growth rate is not significantly different from zero and this is reflected in the low potential for quasi-extinction. The cumulative probability of the population experiencing at least an 80% decline from current levels within 15 years for some sub-populations were much higher (range: 0.129-0.396 for an 80% decline). These results suggest that the rangewide population has a low risk of extinction in the next 15 years and that the formal recovery units specified by the original recovery plan do not correspond to proper sub-population units as defined by population synchrony.
ContributorsDockens, Patrick E. T. (Author) / Sabo, John (Thesis advisor) / Stromberg, Juliet (Committee member) / Fenichel, Eli (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
The closer integration of the world economy has yielded many positive benefits including the worldwide diffusion of innovative technologies and efficiency gains following the widening of international markets. However, closer integration also has negative consequences. Specifically, I focus on the ecology and economics of the spread of species and pathogens. I approach the problem using theoretical and applied models in ecology and economics. First, I use a multi-species theoretical network model to evaluate the ability of dispersal to maintain system-level biodiversity and productivity. I then extend this analysis to consider the effects of dispersal in a coupled social-ecological system where people derive benefits from species. Finally, I estimate an empirical model of the foot and mouth disease risks of trade. By combining outbreak and trade data I estimate the disease risks associated with the international trade in live animals while controlling for the biosecurity measures in place in importing countries and the presence of wild reservoirs. I find that the risks associated with the spread and dispersal of species may be positive or negative, but that this relationship depends on the ecological and economic components of the system and the interactions between them.
ContributorsShanafelt, David William (Author) / Perrings, Charles (Thesis advisor) / Fenichel, Eli (Committee member) / Richards, Timorthy (Committee member) / Janssen, Marco (Committee member) / Collins, James (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
Throughout the Southwest, complex geology and physiography concomitant with climatic variability contribute to diverse stream hydrogeomorphologies. Many riparian plant species store their seeds in soil seed banks, and germinate in response to moisture pulses, but the climatic controls of this response are poorly understood. To better understand the ecological implications of a changing climate on riparian plant communities, I investigated seed bank responses to seasonal temperature patterns and to stream hydrogeomorphic type. I asked the following questions: Are there distinct suites of warm and cool temperature germinating species associated with Southwestern streams; how do they differ between riparian and terrestrial zones, and between ephemeral and perennial streams? How does alpha diversity of the soil seed bank differ between streams with ephemeral, intermittent, and perennial flow, and between montane and basin streams? Do streams with greater elevational change have higher riparian zone seed bank beta-diversity? Does nestedness or turnover contribute more to within stream beta-diversity?
I collected soil samples from the riparian and terrestrial zones of 21 sites, placing them in growth chambers at one of two temperature regimes, and monitoring emergence of seedlings for 12 weeks. Results showed an approximately equal number of warm and cool specialists in both riparian and terrestrials zones; generalists also were abundant, particularly in the riparian zone. The number of temperature specialists and generalists in the riparian zones did not differ significantly between perennial headwater and ephemeral stream types. In montane streams, alpha diversity of the soil seed bank was highest for ephemeral reaches; in basin streams the intermittent and perennial reaches had higher diversity. Spatial turnover was primarily responsible for within stream beta-diversity—reaches had different species assemblages. The large portion of temperature specialists found in riparian seed banks indicates that even with available moisture riparian zone plant community composition will likely be impacted by changing temperatures. However, the presence of so many temperature generalists in the riparian zones suggests that some component of the seed bank is adapted to variable conditions and might offer resilience in a changing climate. Study results confirm the importance of conserving multiple hydrogeomorphic reach types because they support unique species assemblages.
I collected soil samples from the riparian and terrestrial zones of 21 sites, placing them in growth chambers at one of two temperature regimes, and monitoring emergence of seedlings for 12 weeks. Results showed an approximately equal number of warm and cool specialists in both riparian and terrestrials zones; generalists also were abundant, particularly in the riparian zone. The number of temperature specialists and generalists in the riparian zones did not differ significantly between perennial headwater and ephemeral stream types. In montane streams, alpha diversity of the soil seed bank was highest for ephemeral reaches; in basin streams the intermittent and perennial reaches had higher diversity. Spatial turnover was primarily responsible for within stream beta-diversity—reaches had different species assemblages. The large portion of temperature specialists found in riparian seed banks indicates that even with available moisture riparian zone plant community composition will likely be impacted by changing temperatures. However, the presence of so many temperature generalists in the riparian zones suggests that some component of the seed bank is adapted to variable conditions and might offer resilience in a changing climate. Study results confirm the importance of conserving multiple hydrogeomorphic reach types because they support unique species assemblages.
ContributorsSetaro, Danika (Author) / Stromberg, Juliet (Thesis advisor) / Franklin, Janet (Committee member) / Makings, Elizabeth (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
Bouteloua eriopoda (Torr.) Torr., also known as black grama, is a perennial bunchgrass native to arid and semiarid ecosystems in the southwestern region of North America. As a result of anthropogenic climate change, this region is predicted to increase in aridity and experience more frequent extreme drought and extreme wet years. This change in precipitation will no doubt affect black grama; however, few studies have investigated how the specific structural components of this grass will respond. The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of years since start of treatment and annual precipitation amount on tiller and stolon densities, and to test for interaction between the two predictor variables. Additionally, the effects of annual precipitation on ramets and axillary buds were investigated. By using 36 experimental plots that have been receiving drought, irrigated, or control treatments since 2007, tiller density was the most responsive component to both annual precipitation amount and years since start of treatment. Years since start of treatment and annual precipitation amount also had a statistically significant interaction, meaning the effect of precipitation amount on tiller density differs depending on how many years have passed since treatments began. Stolon density was the second-most responsive component; the predictor variables were found to have no statistically significant interaction, meaning their effects on stolon density are independent of one another. Ramet density, ramets per stolon, and axillary bud metabolic activity and density were found to be independent of annual precipitation amount for 2021. The results indicate that multiple-year extreme wet and multiple-year extreme dry conditions in the Southwest will both likely reduce tiller and stolon densities in black grama patches. Prolonged drought conditions reduced tiller and stolon production in black grama because of negative legacies from previous years. Reduced production during prolonged wet conditions could be due to increased competition between adjacent plants.
ContributorsSutter, Bryce Madison (Author) / Sala, Osvaldo E (Thesis advisor) / Makings, Elizabeth (Committee member) / Wojciechowski, Martin F (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022