Matching Items (10)
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Description
This doctoral thesis investigates the predictability characteristics of floods and flash floods by coupling high resolution precipitation products to a distributed hydrologic model. The research hypotheses are tested at multiple watersheds in the Colorado Front Range (CFR) undergoing warm-season precipitation. Rainfall error structures are expected to propagate into hydrologic simulations

This doctoral thesis investigates the predictability characteristics of floods and flash floods by coupling high resolution precipitation products to a distributed hydrologic model. The research hypotheses are tested at multiple watersheds in the Colorado Front Range (CFR) undergoing warm-season precipitation. Rainfall error structures are expected to propagate into hydrologic simulations with added uncertainties by model parameters and initial conditions. Specifically, the following science questions are addressed: (1) What is the utility of Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPE) for high resolution hydrologic forecasts in mountain watersheds of the CFR?, (2) How does the rainfall-reflectivity relation determine the magnitude of errors when radar observations are used for flood forecasts?, and (3) What are the spatiotemporal limits of flood forecasting in mountain basins when radar nowcasts are used into a distributed hydrological model?. The methodology consists of QPE evaluations at the site (i.e., rain gauge location), basin-average and regional scales, and Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) assessment through regional grid-to-grid verification techniques and ensemble basin-averaged time series. The corresponding hydrologic responses that include outlet discharges, distributed runoff maps, and streamflow time series at internal channel locations, are used in light of observed and/or reference data to diagnose the suitability of fusing precipitation forecasts into a distributed model operating at multiple catchments. Results reveal that radar and multisensor QPEs lead to an improved hydrologic performance compared to simulations driven with rain gauge data only. In addition, hydrologic performances attained by satellite products preserve the fundamental properties of basin responses, including a simple scaling relation between the relative spatial variability of runoff and its magnitude. Overall, the spatial variations contained in gridded QPEs add value for warm-season flood forecasting in mountain basins, with sparse data even if those products contain some biases. These results are encouraging and open new avenues for forecasting in regions with limited access and sparse observations. Regional comparisons of different reflectivity -rainfall (Z-R) relations during three summer seasons, illustrated significant rainfall variability across the region. Consistently, hydrologic errors introduced by the distinct Z-R relations, are significant and proportional (in the log-log space) to errors in precipitation estimations and stream flow magnitude. The use of operational Z-R relations without prior calibration may lead to wrong estimation of precipitation, runoff magnitude and increased flood forecasting errors. This suggests that site-specific Z-R relations, prior to forecasting procedures, are desirable in complex terrain regions. Nowcasting experiments show the limits of flood forecasting and its dependence functions of lead time and basin scale. Across the majority of the basins, flood forecasting skill decays with lead time, but the functional relation depends on the interactions between watershed properties and rainfall characteristics. Both precipitation and flood forecasting skills are noticeably reduced for lead times greater than 30 minutes. Scale dependence of hydrologic forecasting errors demonstrates reduced predictability at intermediate-size basins, the typical scale of convective storm systems. Overall, the fusion of high resolution radar nowcasts and the convenient parallel capabilities of the distributed hydrologic model provide an efficient framework for generating accurate real-time flood forecasts suitable for operational environments.
ContributorsMoreno Ramirez, Hernan (Author) / Vivoni, Enrique R. (Thesis advisor) / Ruddell, Benjamin L. (Committee member) / Gochis, David J. (Committee member) / Mays, Larry W. (Committee member) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
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Description

In this study we characterized the relationship between temperature and mortality in central Arizona desert cities that have an extremely hot climate. Relationships between daily maximum apparent temperature (ATmax) and mortality for eight condition-specific causes and all-cause deaths were modeled for all residents and separately for males and females ages

In this study we characterized the relationship between temperature and mortality in central Arizona desert cities that have an extremely hot climate. Relationships between daily maximum apparent temperature (ATmax) and mortality for eight condition-specific causes and all-cause deaths were modeled for all residents and separately for males and females ages <65 and ≥65 during the months May–October for years 2000–2008. The most robust relationship was between ATmax on day of death and mortality from direct exposure to high environmental heat. For this condition-specific cause of death, the heat thresholds in all gender and age groups (ATmax = 90–97 °F; 32.2‒36.1 °C) were below local median seasonal temperatures in the study period (ATmax = 99.5 °F; 37.5 °C). Heat threshold was defined as ATmax at which the mortality ratio begins an exponential upward trend. Thresholds were identified in younger and older females for cardiac disease/stroke mortality (ATmax = 106 and 108 °F; 41.1 and 42.2 °C) with a one-day lag. Thresholds were also identified for mortality from respiratory diseases in older people (ATmax = 109 °F; 42.8 °C) and for all-cause mortality in females (ATmax = 107 °F; 41.7 °C) and males <65 years (ATmax = 102 °F; 38.9 °C). Heat-related mortality in a region that has already made some adaptations to predictable periods of extremely high temperatures suggests that more extensive and targeted heat-adaptation plans for climate change are needed in cities worldwide.

ContributorsHarlan, Sharon L. (Author) / Chowell, Gerardo (Author) / Yang, Shuo (Author) / Petitti, Diana B. (Author) / Morales Butler, Emmanuel J. (Author) / Ruddell, Benjamin L. (Author) / Ruddell, Darren M. (Author)
Created2014-05-20
Description
In Greater Phoenix, urban heat is impacting health, safety, and the economy and these impacts are expected to worsen over time. The number of days above 110˚F are projected to more than double by 2060. In May 2017, The Nature Conservancy, Maricopa County Department of Public Health, Central Arizona Conservation

In Greater Phoenix, urban heat is impacting health, safety, and the economy and these impacts are expected to worsen over time. The number of days above 110˚F are projected to more than double by 2060. In May 2017, The Nature Conservancy, Maricopa County Department of Public Health, Central Arizona Conservation Alliance, Urban Resilience to Extremes Sustainability Research Network, Arizona State University’s Urban Climate Research Center, and Center for Whole Communities launched a participatory Heat Action Planning process to identify both mitigation and adaptation strategies to reduce heat directly and improve the ability of residents to deal with heat. Community-based organizations with existing relationships in three neighborhoods selected for Heat Action Planning later joined the project team: Phoenix Revitalization Corporation, RAILMesa, and Puente Movement. Beyond building a community Heat Action Plan and completing demonstration projects, this participatory process was designed to develop awareness, agency, and social cohesion in underrepresented communities. Furthermore, the Heat Action Planning process was designed to serve as a model for future heat resilience efforts and create a local, contextual, and culturally appropriate vision of a safer, healthier future. The iterative planning and engagement method used by the project team strengthened relationships within and between neighborhoods, community-based organizations, decision-makers, and the core team, and it combined storytelling wisdom and scientific evidence to better understand current and future challenges residents face during extreme heat events.
As a result of three workshops within each community, the residents brought forth ideas that they want to see implemented to increase their thermal comfort and safety during extreme heat days. As depicted below, residents’ ideas intersected around similar concepts, but specific solutions varied across neighborhoods. For example, all neighborhoods would like to add shade to their pedestrian corridors but preferences for the location of shade improvements differed. Some neighborhoods prioritized routes to public transportation, others prioritized routes used by children on their way to school, and others wanted to see shaded rest stops in key places. Four overarching strategic themes emerged across all three neighborhoods: advocate and educate; improve comfort/ability to cope; improve safety; build capacity. These themes signal that there are serious heat safety challenges in residents’ day-to-day lives and that community, business, and decision-making sectors need to address those challenges.
Heat Action Plan elements are designed to be incorporated into other efforts to alleviate heat, to create climate-resilient cities, and to provide public health and safety. Heat Action Plan implementation partners are identified drawing from the Greater Phoenix region, and recommendations are given for supporting the transformation to a cooler city.
To scale this approach, project team members recommend a) continued engagement with and investments into these neighborhoods to implement change signaled by residents as vital, b) repeating the heat action planning process with community leaders in other neighborhoods, and c) working with cities, urban planners, and other stakeholders to institutionalize this process, supporting policies, and the use of proposed metrics for creating cooler communities.
ContributorsNature Conservancy (U.S.) (Contributor)
Created2019
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Description

Objectives: To provide novel quantification and advanced measurements of surface temperatures (Ts) in playgrounds, employing multiple scales of data, and provide insight into hot-hazard mitigation techniques and designs for improved environmental and public health.

Methods: We conduct an analysis of Ts in two Metro-Phoenix playgrounds at three scales: neighborhood (1 km

Objectives: To provide novel quantification and advanced measurements of surface temperatures (Ts) in playgrounds, employing multiple scales of data, and provide insight into hot-hazard mitigation techniques and designs for improved environmental and public health.

Methods: We conduct an analysis of Ts in two Metro-Phoenix playgrounds at three scales: neighborhood (1 km resolution), microscale (6.8 m resolution), and touch-scale (1 cm resolution). Data were derived from two sources: airborne remote sensing (neighborhood and microscale) and in situ (playground site) infrared Ts (touch-scale). Metrics of surface-to-air temperature deltas (Ts–a) and scale offsets (errors) are introduced.

Results: Select in situ Ts in direct sunlight are shown to approach or surpass values likely to result in burns to children at touch-scales much finer than Ts resolved by airborne remote sensing. Scale offsets based on neighbourhood and microscale ground observations are 3.8 ◦C and 7.3 ◦C less than the Ts–a at the 1 cm touch-scale, respectively, and 6.6 ◦C and 10.1 ◦C lower than touch-scale playground equipment Ts, respectively. Hence, the coarser scales underestimate high Ts within playgrounds. Both natural (tree) and artificial (shade sail) shade types are associated with significant reductions in Ts.

Conclusions: A scale mismatch exists based on differing methods of urban Ts measurement. The sub-meter touch-scale is the spatial scale at which data must be collected and policies of urban landscape design and health must be executed in order to mitigate high Ts in high-contact environments such as playgrounds. Shade implementation is the most promising mitigation technique to reduce child burns, increase park usability, and mitigate urban heating.

ContributorsVanos, Jennifer K. (Author) / Middel, Ariane (Author) / McKercher, Grant R. (Author) / Kuras, Evan R. (Author) / Ruddell, Benjamin L. (Author)
Created2015-11-10
Description

This thesis conducted an evaluation of the performance and return on investment of a 2 x 6m, simple design greenhouse, as a climate control technology. Specifically, differences in internal microclimate conditions between a greenhouse treatment plot, and sun and shaded control plots were assessed and related to observed differences in

This thesis conducted an evaluation of the performance and return on investment of a 2 x 6m, simple design greenhouse, as a climate control technology. Specifically, differences in internal microclimate conditions between a greenhouse treatment plot, and sun and shaded control plots were assessed and related to observed differences in crop yields across these plots. Growing conditions and productivity of two crops, tomato and swiss chard, which were grown over summer and winter growing seasons, respectively, were compared. It was found that the greenhouse was associated with improved growth conditions (as measured by the R-Index) for both crops but resulted in higher productivity only for tomatoes. Return on investment and food security impacts from the scaling of greenhouse agriculture were also explored.

ContributorsKline, Jarod Neale (Author) / Aggarwal, Rimjhim (Thesis director) / Agusdinata, Datu Buyung (Committee member) / Vanos, Jennifer K. (Committee member) / School of Sustainability (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-05
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Description

The City of Phoenix Street Transportation Department partnered with the Rob and Melani Walton Sustainability Solutions Service at Arizona State University (ASU) and researchers from various ASU schools to evaluate the effectiveness, performance, and community perception of the new pavement coating. The data collection and analysis occurred across multiple neighborhoods

The City of Phoenix Street Transportation Department partnered with the Rob and Melani Walton Sustainability Solutions Service at Arizona State University (ASU) and researchers from various ASU schools to evaluate the effectiveness, performance, and community perception of the new pavement coating. The data collection and analysis occurred across multiple neighborhoods and at varying times across days and/or months over the course of one year (July 15, 2020–July 14, 2021), allowing the team to study the impacts of the surface treatment under various weather conditions.

Created2021-09
Description

En la zona metropolitana de Phoenix, el calor urbano está afectando la salud, la seguridad y la economía y se espera que estos impactos empeoren con el tiempo. Se prevé que el número de días por encima de 110˚F aumentará más del doble para el 2060. En mayo de 2017,

En la zona metropolitana de Phoenix, el calor urbano está afectando la salud, la seguridad y la economía y se espera que estos impactos empeoren con el tiempo. Se prevé que el número de días por encima de 110˚F aumentará más del doble para el 2060. En mayo de 2017, The Nature Conservancy, el Departamento de Salud Pública del condado de Maricopa, Central Arizona Conservation Alliance, la Red de Investigación en Sostenibilidad sobre la Resiliencia Urbana a Eventos Extremos, el Centro de Investigación del Clima Urbano de Arizona State University y el Center for Whole Communities lanzaron un proceso participativo de planificación de acciones contra el calor para identificar tanto estrategias de mitigación como de adaptación a fin de reducir directamente el calor y mejorar la capacidad de los residentes para lidiar con el calor. Las organizaciones comunitarias con relaciones existentes en tres vecindarios seleccionados para la planificación de acciones contra el calor se unieron más tarde al equipo del proyecto: Phoenix Revitalization Corporation, RAILMesa y Puente Movement. Más allá de construir un plan de acción comunitario contra el calor y completar proyectos de demostración, este proceso participativo fue diseñado para desarrollar conciencia, iniciativa y cohesión social en las comunidades subrepresentadas. Asimismo el proceso de planificación de acciones contra el calor fue diseñado para servir como modelo para esfuerzos futuros de resiliencia al calor y crear una visión local, contextual y culturalmente apropiada de un futuro más seguro y saludable. El método iterativo de planificación y participación utilizado por el equipo del proyecto fortaleció las relaciones dentro y entre los vecindarios, las organizaciones comunitarias, los responsables de la toma de decisiones y el equipo núcleo, y combinó la sabiduría de la narración de historias y la evidencia científica para comprender mejor los desafíos actuales y futuros que enfrentan los residentes durante eventos de calor extremo. Como resultado de tres talleres en cada comunidad, los residentes presentaron ideas que quieren ver implementadas para aumentar su comodidad y seguridad térmica durante los días de calor extremo.

Como se muestra a continuación, las ideas de los residentes se interceptaron en torno a conceptos similares, pero las soluciones específicas variaron entre los vecindarios. Por ejemplo, a todos los vecindarios les gustaría agregar sombra a sus corredores peatonales, pero variaron las preferencias para la ubicación de las mejoras para dar sombra. Algunos vecindarios priorizaron las rutas de transporte público, otros priorizaron las rutas utilizadas por los niños en su camino a la escuela y otros quieren paradas de descanso con sombra en lugares clave. Surgieron cuatro temas estratégicos generales en los tres vecindarios: promover y educar; mejorar la comodidad/capacidad de afrontamiento; mejorar la seguridad; fortalecer la capacidad. Estos temas señalan que existen serios desafíos de seguridad contra el calor en la vida diaria de los residentes y que la comunidad, los negocios y los sectores responsables de la toma de decisión deben abordar esos desafíos.

Los elementos del plan de acción contra el calor están diseñados para incorporarse a otros esfuerzos para aliviar el calor, crear ciudades resilientes al clima y brindar salud y seguridad pública. Los socios de implementación del plan de acción contra el calor provienen de la región de la zona metropolitana de Phoenix, y se brindan recomendaciones para apoyar la transformación a una ciudad más fresca.

Para ampliar la escala de este enfoque, los miembros del equipo del proyecto recomiendan a) compromiso continuo e inversiones en estos vecindarios para implementar el cambio señalado como vital por los residentes, b) repetir el proceso de planificación de acción contra el calor con líderes comunitarios en otros vecindarios, y c) trabajar con las ciudades, los planificadores urbanos y otras partes interesadas para institucionalizar este proceso, apoyando las políticas y el uso de las métricas propuestas para crear comunidades más frescas.

ContributorsMesserschmidt, Maggie (Contributor) / Guardaro, Melissa (Contributor) / White, Jessica R. (Contributor) / Berisha, Vjollca (Contributor) / Hondula, David M. (Contributor) / Feagan, Mathieu (Contributor) / Grimm, Nancy (Contributor) / Beule, Stacie (Contributor) / Perea, Masavi (Contributor) / Ramirez, Maricruz (Contributor) / Olivas, Eva (Contributor) / Bueno, Jessica (Contributor) / Crummey, David (Contributor) / Winkle, Ryan (Contributor) / Rothballer, Kristin (Contributor) / Mocine-McQueen, Julian (Contributor) / Maurer, Maria (Artist) / Coseo, Paul (Artist) / Crank, Peter J (Designer) / Broadbent, Ashley (Designer) / McCauley, Lisa (Designer) / Nature's Cooling Systems Project (Contributor) / Nature Conservancy (U.S.) (Contributor) / Phoenix Revitalization Corporation (Contributor) / Puente Movement (Contributor) / Maricopa County (Ariz.). Department of Public Health (Contributor) / Central Arizona Conservation Alliance (Contributor) / Arizona State University. Urban Climate Research Center (Contributor) / Arizona State University. Urban Resilience to Extremes Sustainability Research Network (Contributor) / Center for Whole Communities (Contributor) / RAILmesa (Contributor) / Vitalyst Health Foundation (Funder)
Created2022
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Description

Exertional heat stroke continues to be one of the leading causes of illness and death in sport in the United States, with an athlete’s experienced microclimate varying by venue design and location. A limited number of studies have attempted to determine the relationship between observed wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT)

Exertional heat stroke continues to be one of the leading causes of illness and death in sport in the United States, with an athlete’s experienced microclimate varying by venue design and location. A limited number of studies have attempted to determine the relationship between observed wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) and WBGT derived from regional weather station data. Moreover, only one study has quantified the relationship between regionally modeled and on-site measured WBGT over different athletic surfaces (natural grass, rubber track, and concrete tennis court). The current research expands on previous studies to examine how different athletic surfaces influence the thermal environment in the Phoenix Metropolitan Area using a combination of fieldwork, modeling, and statistical analysis. Meteorological data were collected from 0700–1900hr across 6 days in June and 5 days in August 2019 in Tempe, Arizona at various Sun Devil Athletics facilities. This research also explored the influence of surface temperatures on WBGT and the changes projected under a future warmer climate. Results indicate that based on American College of Sports Medicine guidelines practice would not be cancelled in June (WBGT≥32.3°C); however, in August, ~33% of practice time was lost across multiple surfaces. The second-tier recommendations (WBGT≥30.1°C) to limit intense exercise were reached an average of 7 hours each day for all surfaces in August. Further, WBGT was calculated using data from four Arizona Meteorological Network (AZMET) weather stations to provide regional WBGT values for comparison. The on-site (field/court) WBGT values were consistently higher than regional values and significantly different (p<0.05). Thus, using regionally-modeled WBGT data to guide activity or clothing modification for heat safety may lead to misclassification and unsafe conditions. Surface temperature measurements indicate a maximum temperature (170°F) occurring around solar noon, yet WBGT reached its highest level mid-afternoon and on the artificial turf surface (2–5PM). Climate projections show that WBGT values are expected to rise, further restricting the amount of practice and games than can take place outdoors during the afternoon. The findings from this study can be used to inform athletic trainers and coaches about the thermal environment through WBGT values on-field.

ContributorsGuyer, Haven Elizabeth (Author) / Vanos, Jennifer K. (Thesis advisor) / Georgescu, Matei (Thesis advisor) / Hondula, David M. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2020
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Description

Background: Environmental heat exposure is a public health concern. The impacts of environmental heat on mortality and morbidity at the population scale are well documented, but little is known about specific exposures that individuals experience.

Objectives: The first objective of this work was to catalyze discussion of the role of personal

Background: Environmental heat exposure is a public health concern. The impacts of environmental heat on mortality and morbidity at the population scale are well documented, but little is known about specific exposures that individuals experience.

Objectives: The first objective of this work was to catalyze discussion of the role of personal heat exposure information in research and risk assessment. The second objective was to provide guidance regarding the operationalization of personal heat exposure research methods.

Discussion: We define personal heat exposure as realized contact between a person and an indoor or outdoor environment that poses a risk of increases in body core temperature and/or perceived discomfort. Personal heat exposure can be measured directly with wearable monitors or estimated indirectly through the combination of time–activity and meteorological data sets. Complementary information to understand individual-scale drivers of behavior, susceptibility, and health and comfort outcomes can be collected from additional monitors, surveys, interviews, ethnographic approaches, and additional social and health data sets. Personal exposure research can help reveal the extent of exposure misclassification that occurs when individual exposure to heat is estimated using ambient temperature measured at fixed sites and can provide insights for epidemiological risk assessment concerning extreme heat.

Conclusions: Personal heat exposure research provides more valid and precise insights into how often people encounter heat conditions and when, where, to whom, and why these encounters occur. Published literature on personal heat exposure is limited to date, but existing studies point to opportunities to inform public health practice regarding extreme heat, particularly where fine-scale precision is needed to reduce health consequences of heat exposure.

ContributorsKuras, Evan (Author) / Richardson, Molly B. (Author) / Calkins, Miriam M. (Author) / Ebi, Kristie L. (Author) / Hess, Jeremy J. (Author) / Kintziger, Kristina W. (Author) / Jagger, Meredith A. (Author) / Middel, Ariane (Author) / Scott, Anna A. (Author) / Spector, June T. (Author) / Uejio, Christopher K. (Author) / Vanos, Jennifer K. (Author) / Zaitchik, Benjamin F. (Author) / Gohlke, Julia M. (Author) / Hondula, David M. (Author) / College of Public Service and Community Solutions (Contributor)
Created2017-08-01
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Description

Background:
Environmental heat exposure is a public health concern. The impacts of environmental heat on mortality and morbidity at the population scale are well documented, but little is known about specific exposures that individuals experience.

Objectives:
The first objective of this work was to catalyze discussion of the role of personal heat exposure

Background:
Environmental heat exposure is a public health concern. The impacts of environmental heat on mortality and morbidity at the population scale are well documented, but little is known about specific exposures that individuals experience.

Objectives:
The first objective of this work was to catalyze discussion of the role of personal heat exposure information in research and risk assessment. The second objective was to provide guidance regarding the operationalization of personal heat exposure research methods.

Discussion:
We define personal heat exposure as realized contact between a person and an indoor or outdoor environment that poses a risk of increases in body core temperature and/or perceived discomfort. Personal heat exposure can be measured directly with wearable monitors or estimated indirectly through the combination of time–activity and meteorological data sets. Complementary information to understand individual-scale drivers of behavior, susceptibility, and health and comfort outcomes can be collected from additional monitors, surveys, interviews, ethnographic approaches, and additional social and health data sets. Personal exposure research can help reveal the extent of exposure misclassification that occurs when individual exposure to heat is estimated using ambient temperature measured at fixed sites and can provide insights for epidemiological risk assessment concerning extreme heat.

Conclusions:
Personal heat exposure research provides more valid and precise insights into how often people encounter heat conditions and when, where, to whom, and why these encounters occur. Published literature on personal heat exposure is limited to date, but existing studies point to opportunities to inform public health practice regarding extreme heat, particularly where fine-scale precision is needed to reduce health consequences of heat exposure.

ContributorsKuras, Evan R. (Author) / Richardson, Molly B. (Author) / Calkins, Mirian M. (Author) / Ebi, Kristie L. (Author) / Gohlke, Julia M. (Author) / Hess, Jeremy J. (Author) / Hondula, David M. (Author) / Kintziger, Kristina W. (Author) / Jagger, Meredith A. (Author) / Middel, Ariane (Author) / Scott, Anna A. (Author) / Spector, June T. (Contributor) / Uejio, Christopher K. (Author) / Vanos, Jennifer K. (Author) / Zaitchik, Benjamin F. (Author)
Created2017-08