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This dissertation creates models of past potential vegetation in the Southern Levant during most of the Holocene, from the beginnings of farming through the rise of urbanized civilization (12 to 2.5 ka BP). The time scale encompasses the rise and collapse of the earliest agrarian civilizations in this region. The archaeological record suggests that increases in social complexity were linked to climatic episodes (e.g., favorable climatic conditions coincide with intervals of prosperity or marked social development such as the Neolithic Revolution ca. 11.5 ka BP, the Secondary Products Revolution ca. 6 ka BP, and the Middle Bronze Age ca. 4 ka BP). The opposite can be said about periods of climatic deterioration, when settled villages were abandoned as the inhabitants returned to nomadic or semi nomadic lifestyles (e.g., abandonment of the largest Neolithic farming towns after 8 ka BP and collapse of Bronze Age towns and cities after 3.5 ka BP during the Late Bronze Age). This study develops chronologically refined models of past vegetation from 12 to 2.5 ka BP, at 500 year intervals, using GIS, remote sensing and statistical modeling tools (MAXENT) that derive from species distribution modeling. Plants are sensitive to alterations in their environment and respond accordingly. Because of this, they are valuable indicators of landscape change. An extensive database of historical and field gathered observations was created. Using this database as well as environmental variables that include temperature and precipitation surfaces for the whole study period (also at 500 year intervals), the potential vegetation of the region was modeled. Through this means, a continuous chronology of potential vegetation of the Southern Levantwas built. The produced paleo-vegetation models generally agree with the proxy records. They indicate a gradual decline of forests and expansion of steppe and desert throughout the Holocene, interrupted briefly during the Mid Holocene (ca. 4 ka BP, Middle Bronze Age). They also suggest that during the Early Holocene, forest areas were extensive, spreading into the Northern Negev. The two remaining forested areas in the Northern and Southern Plateau Region in Jordan were also connected during this time. The models also show general agreement with the major cultural developments, with forested areas either expanding or remaining stable during prosperous periods (e.g., Pre Pottery Neolithic and Middle Bronze Age), and significantly contracting during moments of instability (e.g., Late Bronze Age).
ContributorsSoto-Berelov, Mariela (Author) / Fall, Patricia L. (Thesis advisor) / Myint, Soe (Committee member) / Turner, Billie L (Committee member) / Falconer, Steven (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
Two critical limitations for hyperspatial imagery are higher imagery variances and large data sizes. Although object-based analyses with a multi-scale framework for diverse object sizes are the solution, more data sources and large amounts of testing at high costs are required. In this study, I used tree density segmentation as the key element of a three-level hierarchical vegetation framework for reducing those costs, and a three-step procedure was used to evaluate its effects. A two-step procedure, which involved environmental stratifications and the random walker algorithm, was used for tree density segmentation. I determined whether variation in tone and texture could be reduced within environmental strata, and whether tree density segmentations could be labeled by species associations. At the final level, two tree density segmentations were partitioned into smaller subsets using eCognition in order to label individual species or tree stands in two test areas of two tree densities, and the Z values of Moran's I were used to evaluate whether imagery objects have different mean values from near segmentations as a measure of segmentation accuracy. The two-step procedure was able to delineating tree density segments and label species types robustly, compared to previous hierarchical frameworks. However, eCognition was not able to produce detailed, reasonable image objects with optimal scale parameters for species labeling. This hierarchical vegetation framework is applicable for fine-scale, time-series vegetation mapping to develop baseline data for evaluating climate change impacts on vegetation at low cost using widely available data and a personal laptop.
ContributorsLiau, Yan-ting (Author) / Franklin, Janet (Thesis advisor) / Turner, Billie (Committee member) / Myint, Soe (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Land transformation under conditions of rapid urbanization has significantly altered the structure and functioning of Earth's systems. Land fragmentation, a characteristic of land transformation, is recognized as a primary driving force in the loss of biological diversity worldwide. However, little is known about its implications in complex urban settings where interaction with social dynamics is intense. This research asks: How do patterns of land cover and land fragmentation vary over time and space, and what are the socio-ecological drivers and consequences of land transformation in a rapidly growing city? Using Metropolitan Phoenix as a case study, the research links pattern and process relationships between land cover, land fragmentation, and socio-ecological systems in the region. It examines population growth, water provision and institutions as major drivers of land transformation, and the changes in bird biodiversity that result from land transformation. How to manage socio-ecological systems is one of the biggest challenges of moving towards sustainability. This research project provides a deeper understanding of how land transformation affects socio-ecological dynamics in an urban setting. It uses a series of indices to evaluate land cover and fragmentation patterns over the past twenty years, including land patch numbers, contagion, shapes, and diversities. It then generates empirical evidence on the linkages between land cover patterns and ecosystem properties by exploring the drivers and impacts of land cover change. An interdisciplinary approach that integrates social, ecological, and spatial analysis is applied in this research. Findings of the research provide a documented dataset that can help researchers study the relationship between human activities and biotic processes in an urban setting, and contribute to sustainable urban development.
ContributorsZhang, Sainan (Author) / Boone, Christopher G. (Thesis advisor) / York, Abigail M. (Committee member) / Myint, Soe (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Cancer is one of the most serious global diseases. We have focused on cancer immunoprevention. My thesis projects include developing a prophylactic primary and metastatic cancer vaccines, early cancer detection and investigation of genes involved in tumor development. These studies were focused on frame-shift (FS) antigens. The FS antigens are generated by genomic mutations or abnormal RNA processing, which cause a portion of a normal protein to be translated out of frame. The concept of the prophylactic cancer vaccine is to develop a general cancer vaccine that could prevent healthy people from developing different types of cancer. We have discovered a set of cancer specific FS antigens. One of the FS candidates, structural maintenance of chromosomes protein 1A (SMC1A) FS, could start to accumulate at early stages of tumor and be specifically exposed to the immune system by tumor cells. Prophylactic immunization with SMC1A-FS could significantly inhibit primary tumor development in different murine tumor models and also has the potential to inhibit tumor metastasis. The SMC1A-FS transcript was detected in the plasma of the 4T1/BALB/c mouse tumor model. The tumor size was correlated with the transcript ratio of the SMC1A-FS verses the WT in plasma, which could be measured by regular RT-PCR. This unique cancer biomarker has a practical potential for a large population cancer screen, as well as clinical tumor monitoring. With a set of mimotope peptides, antibodies against SMC1A-FS peptide were detected in different cancer patients, including breast cancer, pancreas cancer and lung cancer with a 53.8%, 56.5% and 12.5% positive rate respectively. This suggested that the FS antibody could be a biomarker for early cancer detection. The characterization of SMC1A suggested that: First, the deficiency of the SMC1A is common in different tumors and able to promote tumor initiation and development; second, the FS truncated protein may have nucleolus function in normal cells. Mis-control of this protein may promote tumor development. In summary, we developed a systematic general cancer prevention strategy through the variety immunological and molecular methods. The results gathered suggest the SMC1A-FS may be useful for the detection and prevention of cancer.
ContributorsShen, Luhui (Author) / Johnston, Stephen Albert (Thesis advisor) / Chang, Yung (Committee member) / Miller, Laurence (Committee member) / Sykes, Kathryn (Committee member) / Jacobs, Bertram (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
Problem: The prospect that urban heat island (UHI) effects and climate change may increase urban temperatures is a problem for cities that actively promote urban redevelopment and higher densities. One possible UHI mitigation strategy is to plant more trees and other irrigated vegetation to prevent daytime heat storage and facilitate nighttime cooling, but this requires water resources that are limited in a desert city like Phoenix.
Purpose: We investigated the tradeoffs between water use and nighttime cooling inherent in urban form and land use choices.
Methods: We used a Local-Scale Urban Meteorological Parameterization Scheme (LUMPS) model to examine the variation in temperature and evaporation in 10 census tracts in Phoenix's urban core. After validating results with estimates of outdoor water use based on tract-level city water records and satellite imagery, we used the model to simulate the temperature and water use consequences of implementing three different scenarios.
Results and conclusions: We found that increasing irrigated landscaping lowers nighttime temperatures, but this relationship is not linear; the greatest reductions occur in the least vegetated neighborhoods. A ratio of the change in water use to temperature impact reached a threshold beyond which increased outdoor water use did little to ameliorate UHI effects.
Takeaway for practice: There is no one design and landscape plan capable of addressing increasing UHI and climate effects everywhere. Any one strategy will have inconsistent results if applied across all urban landscape features and may lead to an inefficient allocation of scarce water resources.
Research Support: This work was supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) under Grant SES-0345945 (Decision Center for a Desert City) and by the City of Phoenix Water Services Department. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of NSF.
ContributorsGober, Patricia (Author) / Brazel, Anthony J. (Author) / Quay, Ray (Author) / Myint, Soe (Author) / Grossman-Clarke, Susanne (Author) / Miller, Adam (Author) / Rossi, Steve (Author)
Created2010-01-04
Description
This study addresses a classic sustainability challenge—the tradeoff between water conservation and temperature amelioration in rapidly growing cities, using Phoenix, Arizona and Portland, Oregon as case studies. An urban energy balance model— LUMPS (Local-Scale Urban Meteorological Parameterization Scheme)—is used to represent the tradeoff between outdoor water use and nighttime cooling during hot, dry summer months. Tradeoffs were characterized under three scenarios of land use change and three climate-change assumptions. Decreasing vegetation density reduced outdoor water use but sacrificed nighttime cooling. Increasing vegetated surfaces accelerated nighttime cooling, but increased outdoor water use by ~20%. Replacing impervious surfaces with buildings achieved similar improvements in nighttime cooling with minimal increases in outdoor water use; it was the most water-efficient cooling strategy. The fact that nighttime cooling rates and outdoor water use were more sensitive to land use scenarios than climate-change simulations suggested that cities can adapt to a warmer climate by manipulating land use.
ContributorsGober, Patricia (Author) / Middel, Ariane (Author) / Brazel, Anthony J. (Author) / Myint, Soe (Author) / Chang, Heejun (Author) / Duh, Jiunn-Der (Author) / House-Peters, Lily (Author)
Created2013-05-16
Description
Biomarkers are the cornerstone of modern-day medicine. They are defined as any biological substance in or outside the body that gives insight to the body's condition. Doctors and researchers can measure specific biomarkers to diagnose and treat patients, such as the concentration of hemoglobin Alc and its connection to diabetes. There are a variety of methods, or assays, to detect biomarkers, but the most common assay is enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). A new-generation assay termed mass spectrometric immunoassay (MSIA) can measure proteoforms, the different chemical variations of proteins, and their relative abundance. ELISA on the other hand measures the overall concentration of protein in the sample. Measuring each of the proteoforms of a protein is important because only one or two variations could be biologically significant and/or cause diseases. However, running MSIA is expensive. For this reason, an alternative plate-based MSIA technique was tested for its ability to detect the proteoforms of a protein called apolipoprotein C-III (ApoC-III). This technique combines the protein capturing procedure of ELISA to isolate the protein with detection in a mass spectrometer. A larger amount of ApoC-III present in the body indicates a considerable risk for coronary heart disease. The precision of the assay is determined on the coefficient of variation (CV). A CV value is the ratio of standard deviation in relation to the mean, represented as a percentage. The smaller the percentage, the less variation the assay has, and therefore the more ability it has to detect subtle changes in the biomarker. An accepted CV would be less than 10% for single-day tests (intra-day) and less than 15% for multi-day tests (inter-day). The plate-based MSIA was started by first coating a 96-well round bottom plate with 2.5 micrograms of ApoC-III antibody. Next, a series of steps were conducted: a buffer wash, then the sample incubation, followed by another buffer wash and two consecutive water washes. After the final wash, the wells were filled with a MALDI matrix, then spotted onto a gold plate to dry. The dry gold target was then placed into a MALDI-TOF mass spectrometer to produce mass spectra for each spot. The mass spectra were calibrated and the area underneath each of the four peaks representing the ApoC-III proteoforms was exported as an Excel file. The intra-day CV values were found by dividing the standard deviation by the average relative abundance of each peak. After repeating the same procedure for three more days, the inter-day CVs were found using the same method. After completing the experiment, the CV values were all within the acceptable guidelines. Therefore, the plate-based MSIA is a viable alternative for finding proteoforms than the more expensive MSIA tips. To further validate this, additional tests will need to be conducted with different proteins and number of samples to determine assay flexibility.
ContributorsTieu, Luc (Author) / Borges, Chad (Thesis director) / Nedelkov, Dobrin (Committee member) / Harrington Bioengineering Program (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-12
Description
The fast pace of global urbanization makes cities the hotspots of population density and anthropogenic activities, leading to intensive emissions of heat and carbon dioxide (CO2), a primary greenhouse gas. Urban climate scientists have been actively seeking effective mitigation strategies over the past decades, aiming to improve the environmental quality for urban dwellers. Prior studies have identified the role of urban green spaces in the relief of urban heat stress. Yet little effort was devoted to quantify their contribution to local and regional CO2 budget. In fact, urban biogenic CO2 fluxes from photosynthesis and respiration are influenced by the microclimate in the built environment and are sensitive to anthropogenic disturbance. The high complexity of the urban ecosystem leads to an outstanding challenge for numerical urban models to disentangling and quantifying the interplay between heat and carbon dynamics.This dissertation aims to advance the simulation of thermal and carbon dynamics in urban land surface models, and to investigate the role of urban greening practices and urban system design in mitigating heat and CO2 emissions. The biogenic CO2 exchange in cities is parameterized by incorporating plant physiological functions into an advanced single-layer urban canopy model in the built environment. The simulation result replicates the microclimate and CO2 flux patterns measured from an eddy covariance system over a residential neighborhood in Phoenix, Arizona with satisfactory accuracy. Moreover, the model decomposes the total CO2 flux from observation and identifies the significant CO2 efflux from soil respiration. The model is then applied to quantify the impact of urban greening practices on heat and biogenic CO2 exchange over designed scenarios. The result shows the use of urban greenery is effective in mitigating both urban heat and carbon emissions, providing environmental co-benefit in cities. Furthermore, to seek the optimal urban system design in terms of thermal comfort and CO2 reduction, a multi-objective optimization algorithm is applied to the machine learning surrogates of the physical urban land surface model. There are manifest trade-offs among ameliorating diverse urban environmental indicators despite the co-benefit from urban greening. The findings of this dissertation, along with its implications on urban planning and landscaping management, would promote sustainable urban development strategies for achieving optimal environmental quality for policy makers, urban residents, and practitioners.
ContributorsLi, Peiyuan (Author) / Wang, Zhihua (Thesis advisor) / Vivoni, Enrique (Committee member) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Committee member) / Myint, Soe (Committee member) / Xu, Tianfang (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2021
Description
Concerns, such as global warming, greenhouse gas emissions, and changes in hydrological regimes, have been raised in response to the global ecosystem changes caused by humans. Understanding the ecosystem functions is crucial for assisting stakeholders in formulating viable plans to address the issues for a healthier planet. However, a systematic evaluation of recent environmental changes and current ecosystem status, focusing on terrestrial ecosystem carbon-water trade-off, in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) is lacking. This dissertation involves: (1) examining the long-term spatiotemporal patterns of ecosystem conditions in response to gains and losses of the forest; (2) evaluating the current consumptive water use variation across all biome and land use types with remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) products; (3) analyzing the trade-off between terrestrial carbon and water stress condition during the photosynthesis process in response to different climatic/ecosystem conditions, and (4) developing a spatial optimization model to effectively determine possible reforestation/afforestation options considering the balance between water conservation and carbon fluxes. These studies were conducted with many recently developed algorithms and satellite imagery. This dissertation makes significant contributions and expands the knowledge of the variation in water consumption and carbon assimilation within the ecosystem when different conditions are present. In addition, the spatial optimization model was applied to the entire region to formulate possible reforestation plans under different water-carbon tradeoff scenarios for the first time. The findings and results of this research can be used to provide constructive suggestions to policymakers, managers, planners, government officials, and any other stakeholders in LMB to formulate policies and guidelines for the environmentally responsible and sustainable development of LMB.
ContributorsLi, Yubin (Author) / Myint, Soe (Thesis advisor) / Tong, Daoqin (Thesis advisor) / Muenich, Rebecca (Committee member) / Schaffer-Smith, Danica (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023
Description
Safe, readily available, and reliable sources of water are an essential component of any municipality’s infrastructure. Phoenix, Arizona, a southwestern city, has among the highest per capita water use in the United States, making it essential to carefully manage its reservoirs. Generally, municipal water bodies are monitored through field sampling. However, this approach is limited spatially and temporally in addition to being costly. In this study, the application of remotely sensed reflectance data from Landsat 7’s Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) and Landsat 8’s Operational Land Imager (OLI) along with data generated through field-sampling is used to gain a better understanding of the seasonal development of algal communities and levels of suspended particulates in the three main terminal reservoirs supplying water to the Phoenix metro area: Bartlett Lake, Lake Pleasant, and Saguaro Lake. Algal abundances, particularly the abundance of filamentous cyanobacteria, increased with warmer temperatures in all three reservoirs and reached the highest comparative abundance in Bartlett Lake. Prymnesiophytes (the class of algae to which the toxin-producing golden algae belong) tended to peak between June and August, with one notable peak occurring in Saguaro Lake in August 2017 during which time a fish-kill was observed. In the cooler months algal abundance was comparatively lower in all three lakes, with a more even distribution of abundance across algae classes. In-situ data from March 2017 to March 2018 were compared with algal communities sampled approximately ten years ago in each reservoir to understand any possible long-term changes. The findings show that the algal communities in the reservoirs are relatively stable, particularly those of the filamentous cyanobacteria, chlorophytes, and prymnesiophytes with some notable exceptions, such as the abundance of diatoms, which increased in Bartlett Lake and Lake Pleasant. When in-situ data were compared with Landsat-derived reflectance data, two-band combinations were found to be the best-estimators of chlorophyll-a concentration (as a proxy for algal biomass) and total suspended sediment concentration. The ratio of the reflectance value of the red band and the blue band produced reasonable estimates for the in-situ parameters in Bartlett Lake. The ratio of the reflectance value of the green band and the blue band produced reasonable estimates for the in-situ parameters in Saguaro Lake. However, even the best performing two-band algorithm did not produce any significant correlation between reflectance and in-situ data in Lake Pleasant. Overall, remotely-sensed observations can significantly improve our understanding of the water quality as measured by algae abundance and particulate loading in Arizona Reservoirs, especially when applied over long timescales.
ContributorsRussell, Jazmine Barkley (Author) / Neuer, Susanne (Thesis advisor) / Fox, Peter (Committee member) / Myint, Soe (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018