Matching Items (91)
Description
Diseases have been part of human life for generations and evolve within the population, sometimes dying out while other times becoming endemic or the cause of recurrent outbreaks. The long term influence of a disease stems from different dynamics within or between pathogen-host, that have been analyzed and studied by many researchers using mathematical models. Co-infection with different pathogens is common, yet little is known about how infection with one pathogen affects the host's immunological response to another. Moreover, no work has been found in the literature that considers the variability of the host immune health or that examines a disease at the population level and its corresponding interconnectedness with the host immune system. Knowing that the spread of the disease in the population starts at the individual level, this thesis explores how variability in immune system response within an endemic environment affects an individual's vulnerability, and how prone it is to co-infections. Immunology-based models of Malaria and Tuberculosis (TB) are constructed by extending and modifying existing mathematical models in the literature. The two are then combined to give a single nine-variable model of co-infection with Malaria and TB. Because these models are difficult to gain any insight analytically due to the large number of parameters, a phenomenological model of co-infection is proposed with subsystems corresponding to the individual immunology-based model of a single infection. Within this phenomenological model, the variability of the host immune health is also incorporated through three different pathogen response curves using nonlinear bounded Michaelis-Menten functions that describe the level or state of immune system (healthy, moderate and severely compromised). The immunology-based models of Malaria and TB give numerical results that agree with the biological observations. The Malaria--TB co-infection model gives reasonable results and these suggest that the order in which the two diseases are introduced have an impact on the behavior of both. The subsystems of the phenomenological models that correspond to a single infection (either of Malaria or TB) mimic much of the observed behavior of the immunology-based counterpart and can demonstrate different behavior depending on the chosen pathogen response curve. In addition, varying some of the parameters and initial conditions in the phenomenological model yields a range of topologically different mathematical behaviors, which suggests that this behavior may be able to be observed in the immunology-based models as well. The phenomenological models clearly replicate the qualitative behavior of primary and secondary infection as well as co-infection. The mathematical solutions of the models correspond to the fundamental states described by immunologists: virgin state, immune state and tolerance state. The phenomenological model of co-infection also demonstrates a range of parameter values and initial conditions in which the introduction of a second disease causes both diseases to grow without bound even though those same parameters and initial conditions did not yield unbounded growth in the corresponding subsystems. This results applies to all three states of the host immune system. In terms of the immunology-based system, this would suggest the following: there may be parameter values and initial conditions in which a person can clear Malaria or TB (separately) from their system but in which the presence of both can result in the person dying of one of the diseases. Finally, this thesis studies links between epidemiology (population level) and immunology in an effort to assess the impact of pathogen's spread within the population on the immune response of individuals. Models of Malaria and TB are proposed that incorporate the immune system of the host into a mathematical model of an epidemic at the population level.
ContributorsSoho, Edmé L (Author) / Wirkus, Stephen (Thesis advisor) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Thesis advisor) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
In an effort to address the lack of literature in on-campus active travel, this study aims to investigate the following primary questions:<br/>• What are the modes that students use to travel on campus?<br/>• What are the motivations that underlie the mode choice of students on campus?<br/>My first stage of research involved a series of qualitative investigations. I held one-on-one virtual interviews with students in which I asked them questions about the mode they use and why they feel that their chosen mode works best for them. These interviews served two functions. First, they provided me with insight into the various motivations underlying student mode choice. Second, they provided me with an indication of what explanatory variables should be included in a model of mode choice on campus.<br/>The first half of the research project informed a quantitative survey that was released via the Honors Digest to attract student respondents. Data was gathered on travel behavior as well as relevant explanatory variables.<br/>My analysis involved developing a logit model to predict student mode choice on campus and presenting the model estimation in conjunction with a discussion of student travel motivations based on the qualitative interviews. I use this information to make a recommendation on how campus infrastructure could be modified to better support the needs of the student population.
ContributorsMirtich, Laura Christine (Author) / Salon, Deborah (Thesis director) / Fang, Kevin (Committee member) / School of Public Affairs (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2021-05
Description
Solution methods for certain linear and nonlinear evolution equations are presented in this dissertation. Emphasis is placed mainly on the analytical treatment of nonautonomous differential equations, which are challenging to solve despite the existent numerical and symbolic computational software programs available. Ideas from the transformation theory are adopted allowing one to solve the problems under consideration from a non-traditional perspective. First, the Cauchy initial value problem is considered for a class of nonautonomous and inhomogeneous linear diffusion-type equation on the entire real line. Explicit transformations are used to reduce the equations under study to their corresponding standard forms emphasizing on natural relations with certain Riccati(and/or Ermakov)-type systems. These relations give solvability results for the Cauchy problem of the parabolic equation considered. The superposition principle allows to solve formally this problem from an unconventional point of view. An eigenfunction expansion approach is also considered for this general evolution equation. Examples considered to corroborate the efficacy of the proposed solution methods include the Fokker-Planck equation, the Black-Scholes model and the one-factor Gaussian Hull-White model. The results obtained in the first part are used to solve the Cauchy initial value problem for certain inhomogeneous Burgers-type equation. The connection between linear (the Diffusion-type) and nonlinear (Burgers-type) parabolic equations is stress in order to establish a strong commutative relation. Traveling wave solutions of a nonautonomous Burgers equation are also investigated. Finally, it is constructed explicitly the minimum-uncertainty squeezed states for quantum harmonic oscillators. They are derived by the action of corresponding maximal kinematical invariance group on the standard ground state solution. It is shown that the product of the variances attains the required minimum value only at the instances that one variance is a minimum and the other is a maximum, when the squeezing of one of the variances occurs. Such explicit construction is possible due to the relation between the diffusion-type equation studied in the first part and the time-dependent Schrodinger equation. A modication of the radiation field operators for squeezed photons in a perfect cavity is also suggested with the help of a nonstandard solution of Heisenberg's equation of motion.
ContributorsVega-Guzmán, José Manuel, 1982- (Author) / Sulov, Sergei K (Thesis advisor) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Thesis advisor) / Platte, Rodrigo (Committee member) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Parkinson's disease, the most prevalent movement disorder of the central nervous system, is a chronic condition that affects more than 1000,000 U.S. residents and about 3% of the population over the age of 65. The characteristic symptoms include tremors, bradykinesia, rigidity and impaired postural stability. Current therapy based on augmentation or replacement of dopamine is designed to improve patients' motor performance but often leads to levodopa-induced complications, such as dyskinesia and motor fluctuation. With the disease progress, clinicians must closely monitor patients' progress in order to identify any complications or decline in motor function as soon as possible in PD management. Unfortunately, current clinical assessment for Parkinson's is subjective and mostly influenced by brief observations during patient visits. Thus improvement or decline in patients' motor function in between visits is extremely difficult to assess. This may hamper clinicians while making informed decisions about the course of therapy for Parkinson's patients and could negatively impact clinical care. In this study we explored new approaches for PD assessment that aim to provide home-based PD assessment and monitoring. By extending the disease assessment to home, the healthcare burden on patients and their family can be reduced, and the disease progress can be more closely monitored by physicians. To achieve these aims, two novel approaches have been designed, developed and validated. The first approach is a questionnaire based self-evaluation metric, which estimate the PD severity through using self-evaluation score on pre-designed questions. Based on the results of the first approach, a smart phone based approach was invented. The approach takes advantage of the mobile computing technology and clinical decision support approach to evaluate the motor performance of patient daily activity and provide the longitudinal disease assessment and monitoring. Both approaches have been validated on recruited PD patients at the movement disorder program of Barrow Neurological Clinic (BNC) at St Joseph's Hospital and Medical Center. The results of validation tests showed favorable accuracy on detecting and assessing critical symptoms of PD, and shed light on promising future of implementing mobile platform based PD evaluation and monitoring tools to facilitate PD management.
ContributorsPan, Di (Author) / Petitti, Diana (Thesis advisor) / Greenes, Robert (Committee member) / Johnson, William (Committee member) / Dhall, Rohit (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
The living world we inhabit and observe is extraordinarily complex. From the perspective of a person analyzing data about the living world, complexity is most commonly encountered in two forms: 1) in the sheer size of the datasets that must be analyzed and the physical number of mathematical computations necessary to obtain an answer and 2) in the underlying structure of the data, which does not conform to classical normal theory statistical assumptions and includes clustering and unobserved latent constructs. Until recently, the methods and tools necessary to effectively address the complexity of biomedical data were not ordinarily available. The utility of four methods--High Performance Computing, Monte Carlo Simulations, Multi-Level Modeling and Structural Equation Modeling--designed to help make sense of complex biomedical data are presented here.
ContributorsBrown, Justin Reed (Author) / Dinu, Valentin (Thesis advisor) / Johnson, William (Committee member) / Petitti, Diana (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
Mortality of 1918 influenza virus was high, partly due to bacteria coinfections. We characterize pandemic mortality in Arizona, which had high prevalence of tuberculosis. We applied regressions to over 35,000 data points to estimate the basic reproduction number and excess mortality. Age-specific mortality curves show elevated mortality for all age groups, especially the young, and senior sparing effects. The low value for reproduction number indicates that transmissibility was moderately low.
ContributorsJenner, Melinda Eva (Author) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Thesis director) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
Background: While research has quantified the mortality burden of the 1957 H2N2 influenza pandemic in the United States, little is known about how the virus spread locally in Arizona, an area where the dry climate was promoted as reducing respiratory illness transmission yet tuberculosis prevalence was high.
Methods: Using archival death certificates from 1954 to 1961, this study quantified the age-specific seasonal patterns, excess-mortality rates, and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona. By applying cyclical Serfling linear regression models to weekly mortality rates, the excess-mortality rates due to respiratory and all-causes were estimated for each age group during the pandemic period. The reproduction number was quantified from weekly data using a simple growth rate method and generation intervals of 3 and 4 days. Local newspaper articles from The Arizona Republic were analyzed from 1957-1958.
Results: Excess-mortality rates varied between waves, age groups, and causes of death, but overall remained low. From October 1959-June 1960, the most severe wave of the pandemic, the absolute excess-mortality rate based on respiratory deaths per 10,000 population was 17.85 in the elderly (≥65 years). All other age groups had extremely low excess-mortality and the typical U-shaped age-pattern was absent. However, relative risk was greatest (3.61) among children and young adolescents (5-14 years) from October 1957-March 1958, based on incidence rates of respiratory deaths. Transmissibility was greatest during the same 1957-1958 period, when the mean reproduction number was 1.08-1.11, assuming 3 or 4 day generation intervals and exponential or fixed distributions.
Conclusions: Maricopa County largely avoided pandemic influenza from 1957-1961. Understanding this historical pandemic and the absence of high excess-mortality rates and transmissibility in Maricopa County may help public health officials prepare for and mitigate future outbreaks of influenza.
Methods: Using archival death certificates from 1954 to 1961, this study quantified the age-specific seasonal patterns, excess-mortality rates, and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona. By applying cyclical Serfling linear regression models to weekly mortality rates, the excess-mortality rates due to respiratory and all-causes were estimated for each age group during the pandemic period. The reproduction number was quantified from weekly data using a simple growth rate method and generation intervals of 3 and 4 days. Local newspaper articles from The Arizona Republic were analyzed from 1957-1958.
Results: Excess-mortality rates varied between waves, age groups, and causes of death, but overall remained low. From October 1959-June 1960, the most severe wave of the pandemic, the absolute excess-mortality rate based on respiratory deaths per 10,000 population was 17.85 in the elderly (≥65 years). All other age groups had extremely low excess-mortality and the typical U-shaped age-pattern was absent. However, relative risk was greatest (3.61) among children and young adolescents (5-14 years) from October 1957-March 1958, based on incidence rates of respiratory deaths. Transmissibility was greatest during the same 1957-1958 period, when the mean reproduction number was 1.08-1.11, assuming 3 or 4 day generation intervals and exponential or fixed distributions.
Conclusions: Maricopa County largely avoided pandemic influenza from 1957-1961. Understanding this historical pandemic and the absence of high excess-mortality rates and transmissibility in Maricopa County may help public health officials prepare for and mitigate future outbreaks of influenza.
ContributorsCobos, April J (Author) / Jehn, Megan (Thesis director) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
Mathematical epidemiology, one of the oldest and richest areas in mathematical biology, has significantly enhanced our understanding of how pathogens emerge, evolve, and spread. Classical epidemiological models, the standard for predicting and managing the spread of infectious disease, assume that contacts between susceptible and infectious individuals depend on their relative frequency in the population. The behavioral factors that underpin contact rates are not generally addressed. There is, however, an emerging a class of models that addresses the feedbacks between infectious disease dynamics and the behavioral decisions driving host contact. Referred to as “economic epidemiology” or “epidemiological economics,” the approach explores the determinants of decisions about the number and type of contacts made by individuals, using insights and methods from economics. We show how the approach has the potential both to improve predictions of the course of infectious disease, and to support development of novel approaches to infectious disease management.
ContributorsPerrings, Charles (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Author) / Daszak, Peter (Author) / Fenichel, Eli P. (Author) / Finnoff, David (Author) / Horan, Richard D. (Author) / Kilpatrick, A. Marm (Author) / Kinzig, Ann (Author) / Kuminoff, Nicolai (Author) / Levin, Simon (Author) / Morin, Benjamin (Author) / Smith, Katherine F. (Author) / Springborn, Michael (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor) / W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Economics (Contributor) / Julie Ann Wrigley Global Institute of Sustainability (Contributor)
Created2015-12-01
Description
Background
Seroepidemiological studies before and after the epidemic wave of H1N1-2009 are useful for estimating population attack rates with a potential to validate early estimates of the reproduction number, R, in modeling studies.
Methodology/Principal Findings
Since the final epidemic size, the proportion of individuals in a population who become infected during an epidemic, is not the result of a binomial sampling process because infection events are not independent of each other, we propose the use of an asymptotic distribution of the final size to compute approximate 95% confidence intervals of the observed final size. This allows the comparison of the observed final sizes against predictions based on the modeling study (R = 1.15, 1.40 and 1.90), which also yields simple formulae for determining sample sizes for future seroepidemiological studies. We examine a total of eleven published seroepidemiological studies of H1N1-2009 that took place after observing the peak incidence in a number of countries. Observed seropositive proportions in six studies appear to be smaller than that predicted from R = 1.40; four of the six studies sampled serum less than one month after the reported peak incidence. The comparison of the observed final sizes against R = 1.15 and 1.90 reveals that all eleven studies appear not to be significantly deviating from the prediction with R = 1.15, but final sizes in nine studies indicate overestimation if the value R = 1.90 is used.
Conclusions
Sample sizes of published seroepidemiological studies were too small to assess the validity of model predictions except when R = 1.90 was used. We recommend the use of the proposed approach in determining the sample size of post-epidemic seroepidemiological studies, calculating the 95% confidence interval of observed final size, and conducting relevant hypothesis testing instead of the use of methods that rely on a binomial proportion.
Seroepidemiological studies before and after the epidemic wave of H1N1-2009 are useful for estimating population attack rates with a potential to validate early estimates of the reproduction number, R, in modeling studies.
Methodology/Principal Findings
Since the final epidemic size, the proportion of individuals in a population who become infected during an epidemic, is not the result of a binomial sampling process because infection events are not independent of each other, we propose the use of an asymptotic distribution of the final size to compute approximate 95% confidence intervals of the observed final size. This allows the comparison of the observed final sizes against predictions based on the modeling study (R = 1.15, 1.40 and 1.90), which also yields simple formulae for determining sample sizes for future seroepidemiological studies. We examine a total of eleven published seroepidemiological studies of H1N1-2009 that took place after observing the peak incidence in a number of countries. Observed seropositive proportions in six studies appear to be smaller than that predicted from R = 1.40; four of the six studies sampled serum less than one month after the reported peak incidence. The comparison of the observed final sizes against R = 1.15 and 1.90 reveals that all eleven studies appear not to be significantly deviating from the prediction with R = 1.15, but final sizes in nine studies indicate overestimation if the value R = 1.90 is used.
Conclusions
Sample sizes of published seroepidemiological studies were too small to assess the validity of model predictions except when R = 1.90 was used. We recommend the use of the proposed approach in determining the sample size of post-epidemic seroepidemiological studies, calculating the 95% confidence interval of observed final size, and conducting relevant hypothesis testing instead of the use of methods that rely on a binomial proportion.
ContributorsNishiura, Hiroshi (Author) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor)
Created2011-03-24
Description
The development of stab-resistant Kevlar armor has been an ongoing field of research
since the late 1990s, with the ultimate goal of improving the multi-threat capabilities of
traditional soft-body armor while significantly improving its protective efficiency - the amount
of layers of armor material required to defeat threats. To create a novel, superior materials
system to reinforce Kevlar armor for the Norica Capstone project, this thesis set out to
synthesize, recover, and characterize zinc oxide nanowire colloids.
The materials synthesized were successfully utilized in the wider Capstone effort to
dramatically enhance the protective abilities of Kevlar, while the data obtained on the 14
hydrothermal synthesis attempts and numerous challenges at recovery provided critical
information on the synthesis parameters involved in the reliable, scalable mass production of the
nanomaterial additive. Additionally, recovery was unconventionally facilitated in the absence of
a vacuum filtration apparatus with nanoscale filters by intentionally inducing electrostatic
agglomeration of the nanowires during standard gravity filtration. The subsequent application of
these nanowires constituted a pioneering use in the production of nanowire-reinforced
STF-based Kevlar coatings, and support the future development and, ultimately, the
commercialization of lighter and more-protective soft armor systems.
since the late 1990s, with the ultimate goal of improving the multi-threat capabilities of
traditional soft-body armor while significantly improving its protective efficiency - the amount
of layers of armor material required to defeat threats. To create a novel, superior materials
system to reinforce Kevlar armor for the Norica Capstone project, this thesis set out to
synthesize, recover, and characterize zinc oxide nanowire colloids.
The materials synthesized were successfully utilized in the wider Capstone effort to
dramatically enhance the protective abilities of Kevlar, while the data obtained on the 14
hydrothermal synthesis attempts and numerous challenges at recovery provided critical
information on the synthesis parameters involved in the reliable, scalable mass production of the
nanomaterial additive. Additionally, recovery was unconventionally facilitated in the absence of
a vacuum filtration apparatus with nanoscale filters by intentionally inducing electrostatic
agglomeration of the nanowires during standard gravity filtration. The subsequent application of
these nanowires constituted a pioneering use in the production of nanowire-reinforced
STF-based Kevlar coatings, and support the future development and, ultimately, the
commercialization of lighter and more-protective soft armor systems.
ContributorsDurso, Michael Nathan (Author) / Tongay, Sefaattin (Thesis director) / Zhuang, Houlong (Committee member) / Materials Science and Engineering Program (Contributor, Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05