Background: Extreme heat is a public health challenge. The scarcity of directly comparable studies on the association of heat with morbidity and mortality and the inconsistent identification of threshold temperatures for severe impacts hampers the development of comprehensive strategies aimed at reducing adverse heat-health events.
Objectives: This quantitative study was designed to link temperature with mortality and morbidity events in Maricopa County, Arizona, USA, with a focus on the summer season.
Methods: Using Poisson regression models that controlled for temporal confounders, we assessed daily temperature–health associations for a suite of mortality and morbidity events, diagnoses, and temperature metrics. Minimum risk temperatures, increasing risk temperatures, and excess risk temperatures were statistically identified to represent different “trigger points” at which heat-health intervention measures might be activated.
Results: We found significant and consistent associations of high environmental temperature with all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, heat-related mortality, and mortality resulting from conditions that are consequences of heat and dehydration. Hospitalizations and emergency department visits due to heat-related conditions and conditions associated with consequences of heat and dehydration were also strongly associated with high temperatures, and there were several times more of those events than there were deaths. For each temperature metric, we observed large contrasts in trigger points (up to 22°C) across multiple health events and diagnoses.
Conclusion: Consideration of multiple health events and diagnoses together with a comprehensive approach to identifying threshold temperatures revealed large differences in trigger points for possible interventions related to heat. Providing an array of heat trigger points applicable for different end-users may improve the public health response to a problem that is projected to worsen in the coming decades.
Maricopa County, Arizona, anchor to the fastest growing megapolitan area in the United States, is located in a hot desert climate where extreme temperatures are associated with elevated risk of mortality. Continued urbanization in the region will impact atmospheric temperatures and, as a result, potentially affect human health. We aimed to quantify the number of excess deaths attributable to heat in Maricopa County based on three future urbanization and adaptation scenarios and multiple exposure variables.
Two scenarios (low and high growth projections) represent the maximum possible uncertainty range associated with urbanization in central Arizona, and a third represents the adaptation of high-albedo cool roof technology. Using a Poisson regression model, we related temperature to mortality using data spanning 1983–2007. Regional climate model simulations based on 2050-projected urbanization scenarios for Maricopa County generated distributions of temperature change, and from these predicted changes future excess heat-related mortality was estimated. Subject to urbanization scenario and exposure variable utilized, projections of heat-related mortality ranged from a decrease of 46 deaths per year (− 95%) to an increase of 339 deaths per year (+ 359%).
Projections based on minimum temperature showed the greatest increase for all expansion and adaptation scenarios and were substantially higher than those for daily mean temperature. Projections based on maximum temperature were largely associated with declining mortality. Low-growth and adaptation scenarios led to the smallest increase in predicted heat-related mortality based on mean temperature projections. Use of only one exposure variable to project future heat-related deaths may therefore be misrepresentative in terms of direction of change and magnitude of effects. Because urbanization-induced impacts can vary across the diurnal cycle, projections of heat-related health outcomes that do not consider place-based, time-varying urban heat island effects are neglecting essential elements for policy relevant decision-making.
Preventing heat-associated morbidity and mortality is a public health priority in Maricopa County, Arizona (United States). The objective of this project was to evaluate Maricopa County cooling centers and gain insight into their capacity to provide relief for the public during extreme heat events. During the summer of 2014, 53 cooling centers were evaluated to assess facility and visitor characteristics. Maricopa County staff collected data by directly observing daily operations and by surveying managers and visitors. The cooling centers in Maricopa County were often housed within community, senior, or religious centers, which offered various services for at least 1500 individuals daily. Many visitors were unemployed and/or homeless. Many learned about a cooling center by word of mouth or by having seen the cooling center’s location. The cooling centers provide a valuable service and reach some of the region’s most vulnerable populations. This project is among the first to systematically evaluate cooling centers from a public health perspective and provides helpful insight to community leaders who are implementing or improving their own network of cooling centers.
This study aims to examine the relationship between urban densification and pedestrian thermal comfort at different times of the year, and to understand how this can impact patterns of activity in downtown areas. The focus of the research is on plazas in the urban core of downtown Tempe, given their importance to the pedestrian landscape. With that in mind, the research question for the study is: how does the microclimate of a densifying urban core affect thermal comfort in plazas at different times of the year? Based on the data, I argue that plazas in downtown Tempe are not maximally predisposed to pedestrian thermal comfort in the summer or the fall. Thus, the proposed intervention to improve thermal comfort in downtown Tempe’s plazas is the implementation of decision support tools focused on education, community engagement, and thoughtful building designs for heat safety.
Phoebus 6, Number 1: A Journal of Art History - Table of Contents
“Preface” p. 7-8.
“The Time of Qianlong (1736-1795)” by Wen Fong, p. 9-16.
“The Intellectual Climate in Eighteenth-century China: Glimpses of Beijing, Suzhou, and Yangzhou in the Qianlong Period” by Frederick Mote, p. 17-55.
“The Qianlong Emperor’s Skill in the Connoisseurship of Chinese Painting” by Kohara Hironobu, p. 56-73.
“An Overview of Stylistic Development in the Qianlong Painting Academy” by She Cheng, p. 74-90.
“Document and Portrait: the Southern Tour Paintings of Kangxi and Qianlong” by Maxwell Hearn, p. 91-131.
“Tangdai: A Biographical Sketch” by Ju-hsi Chou, p. 132-140.
“For the Love of God: Castiglione at the Qing Imperial Court” by Howard Rogers, p. 141-160.
“Approaches to Painting at the Qianlong Court” by Claudia Brown, p. 163-168.
“Notes” p. 169-198.
Phoebus 6, Number 2: A Journal of Art History - Table of Contents
“Preface” p. 207.
“Figure, Fiction, and Figment in Eighteenth-century Chinese Painting” by Richard Vinograd, p. 209-227.
“Yuan Jiang: Image Maker” by Alfreda Murck, p. 228-260.
“Zheng Xie's Price List: Painting as a Source of Income in Yangzhou” by Ginger Cheng-chi Hsü, p. 261-271.
“Jin Nong: The Eccentric Painter with a Wintry Heart” by Marshall P. S. Wu, p. 272-294.
“An Overview of Li Jian’s Painting” by Christina Chu, p. 295-315.
“Eighteenth-century Foundations in Modern Chinese Painting” by Chu-tsing Li, p. 316-327.
“Rubric and Art History: The Case of the Eight Eccentrics in Yangzhou” by Ju-hsi Chou, p. 329-350.
“Notes” p. 351-379.
“Glossary” p. 381-391.
“Index” p. 393-418
Phoebus 8: A Journal of Art History - Table of Contents
“Preface” by Ju-hsi Chou, p. 9-10.
“The Significance of the Nineteenth Century for Modern Chinese History” by Stephen R. Mackinnon, p. 11-17.
“Looking at Late Qing Painting with New Eyes” by Chu-Tsing Li, p. 18-37.
“Qian Du to Zhang Jing: The Artist and the Patron” by Ju-hsi Chou, p. 38-66.
“Zhou Xian's Fabulous Construct: The Thatched Cottage of Fan Lake” by Britta Erickson, p. 67-93.
“A Forgotten Celebrity: Wang Zhen (1867-1938), Businessman, Philanthropist, and Artist” by Hsing-yuan Tsao, p. 94-109.
“Satire and Situation: Images of the Artist in Late Nineteenth-Century China” by Richard Vinograd, p. 110-133.
“Painters and Publishing in Late Nineteenth-century Shanghai” by Jonathan Hay, p. 134-188.
“Calligraphy at the Close of the Chinese Empire” by Lothar Ledderose, p. 189-207.
“Glossary of Chinese Names and Terms” p. 211-219
Phoebus 2: A Journal of Art History - Table of Contents
“Preface” by Jack Breckenridge, p. 3.
“Contributors” p. 4-5.
“Table of Contents” p. 6-7.
“The Problem of Antisolimenismo in Neapolitan Baroque Painting” by Donald Rabiner, p. 8-16.
“Mid-Fourteenth Century Painting in Suchou: Some Lesser Masters” by Claudia Brown, p. 17-30.
“A Re-Examination of the Cult of Demeter and the Meaning of the Eleusinian Mysteries” by Sherly Farness, p. 31-38.
“Arizona Portfolio” p. 39-53.
“Wooden Cross” by Mildred Monteverde, p. 40-43.
“Le Petit Tablier” by Rosalind Robinson, p. 44-47.
“La Réunion des plus Célèbres Monuments Antiques de la France” by Vicki C. Wright, p.
48-53.
“An Unpublished Rowlandson Sketchbook” by Anthony Gully, p. 54-74.
“Are We Ready for Shih-T'ao?” by Ju-hsi Chou, p. 75-87.
“A Conversation Between Adolph Gottlieb and Jack Breckenridge” transcribed by Jack Breckenridge, p. 88-96.
“Three Recent Art Reference Books” by Winberta Yao, p. 97-102
Phoebus 1: A Journal of Art History - Table of Contents
“Preface” by Ju-hsi Chou, p. 4-6.
“Dedication” by Harry Wood, p. 7-8.
“Style and Symbolism in the Awatobi Kiva Mural Paintings” by Marvin Cohodas, p. 9-21.
“Mr. B and the Cherubim: A Critical Examination of William Blake's 'A Descriptive Catalogue' of 1809” by Anthony Gully, p. 23-46.
“Arizona Portfolio” p. 47-64.
“La Muse de Guillaume Apollinaire (The Muse of Guillaume Apollinaire)” by Anthony
Gully, p. 48-51.
“Wild Geese, Flowering Plants, and Tall Reeds” by Ju-hsi Chou, p. 52-55.
“Ting” by Ju-hsi Chou, p. 56-59.
“Homage to Watteau” by Robin Dowden, p. 60-64.
“A Note on a Letter from Roger Hilton to Terry Frost” by Jack Breckenridge, p. 65-74.
“Ming Idealism and Landscape Painting” by Ju-hsi Chou, p. 75-92.
“Classic Maya Elements in the Iconography of Rulership at El Tajin, Veracruz, Mexico” by Michael Kampen, p. 93-104.
“Anne de Coursey Clapp, Wen Cheng-ming, ‘The Ming Artist and Antiquity’” by Anne de Coursey Clapp and Wen Cheng-ming, p. 105-108.
“‘7+5 Sculptors in the 1950s’: An Exhibition in the Phoenix Art Museum” 108-113.
“List of Contributors” by 114-116.