Matching Items (548)
Description
This thesis outlines the development of a vector retrieval technique, based on data assimilation, for a coherent Doppler LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging). A detailed analysis of the Optimal Interpolation (OI) technique for vector retrieval is presented. Through several modifications to the OI technique, it is shown that the modified technique results in significant improvement in velocity retrieval accuracy. These modifications include changes to innovation covariance portioning, covariance binning, and analysis increment calculation. It is observed that the modified technique is able to make retrievals with better accuracy, preserves local information better, and compares well with tower measurements. In order to study the error of representativeness and vector retrieval error, a lidar simulator was constructed. Using the lidar simulator a thorough sensitivity analysis of the lidar measurement process and vector retrieval is carried out. The error of representativeness as a function of scales of motion and sensitivity of vector retrieval to look angle is quantified. Using the modified OI technique, study of nocturnal flow in Owens' Valley, CA was carried out to identify and understand uncharacteristic events on the night of March 27th 2006. Observations from 1030 UTC to 1230 UTC (0230 hr local time to 0430 hr local time) on March 27 2006 are presented. Lidar observations show complex and uncharacteristic flows such as sudden bursts of westerly cross-valley wind mixing with the dominant up-valley wind. Model results from Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS®) and other in-situ instrumentations are used to corroborate and complement these observations. The modified OI technique is used to identify uncharacteristic and extreme flow events at a wind development site. Estimates of turbulence and shear from this technique are compared to tower measurements. A formulation for equivalent wind speed in the presence of variations in wind speed and direction, combined with shear is developed and used to determine wind energy content in presence of turbulence.
ContributorsChoukulkar, Aditya (Author) / Calhoun, Ronald (Thesis advisor) / Mahalov, Alex (Committee member) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Committee member) / Phelan, Patrick (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
In 1968, phycologist M.R. Droop published his famous discovery on the functional relationship between growth rate and internal nutrient status of algae in chemostat culture. The simple notion that growth is directly dependent on intracellular nutrient concentration is useful for understanding the dynamics in many ecological systems. The cell quota in particular lends itself to ecological stoichiometry, which is a powerful framework for mathematical ecology. Three models are developed based on the cell quota principal in order to demonstrate its applications beyond chemostat culture.
First, a data-driven model is derived for neutral lipid synthesis in green microalgae with respect to nitrogen limitation. This model synthesizes several established frameworks in phycology and ecological stoichiometry. The model demonstrates how the cell quota is a useful abstraction for understanding the metabolic shift to neutral lipid production that is observed in certain oleaginous species.
Next a producer-grazer model is developed based on the cell quota model and nutrient recycling. The model incorporates a novel feedback loop to account for animal toxicity due to accumulation of nitrogen waste. The model exhibits rich, complex dynamics which leave several open mathematical questions.
Lastly, disease dynamics in vivo are in many ways analogous to those of an ecosystem, giving natural extensions of the cell quota concept to disease modeling. Prostate cancer can be modeled within this framework, with androgen the limiting nutrient and the prostate and cancer cells as competing species. Here the cell quota model provides a useful abstraction for the dependence of cellular proliferation and apoptosis on androgen and the androgen receptor. Androgen ablation therapy is often used for patients in biochemical recurrence or late-stage disease progression and is in general initially effective. However, for many patients the cancer eventually develops resistance months to years after treatment begins. Understanding how and predicting when hormone therapy facilitates evolution of resistant phenotypes has immediate implications for treatment. Cell quota models for prostate cancer can be useful tools for this purpose and motivate applications to other diseases.
First, a data-driven model is derived for neutral lipid synthesis in green microalgae with respect to nitrogen limitation. This model synthesizes several established frameworks in phycology and ecological stoichiometry. The model demonstrates how the cell quota is a useful abstraction for understanding the metabolic shift to neutral lipid production that is observed in certain oleaginous species.
Next a producer-grazer model is developed based on the cell quota model and nutrient recycling. The model incorporates a novel feedback loop to account for animal toxicity due to accumulation of nitrogen waste. The model exhibits rich, complex dynamics which leave several open mathematical questions.
Lastly, disease dynamics in vivo are in many ways analogous to those of an ecosystem, giving natural extensions of the cell quota concept to disease modeling. Prostate cancer can be modeled within this framework, with androgen the limiting nutrient and the prostate and cancer cells as competing species. Here the cell quota model provides a useful abstraction for the dependence of cellular proliferation and apoptosis on androgen and the androgen receptor. Androgen ablation therapy is often used for patients in biochemical recurrence or late-stage disease progression and is in general initially effective. However, for many patients the cancer eventually develops resistance months to years after treatment begins. Understanding how and predicting when hormone therapy facilitates evolution of resistant phenotypes has immediate implications for treatment. Cell quota models for prostate cancer can be useful tools for this purpose and motivate applications to other diseases.
ContributorsPacker, Aaron (Author) / Kuang, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Nagy, John (Committee member) / Smith, Hal (Committee member) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / Kang, Yun (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
It is possible in a properly controlled environment, such as industrial metrology, to make significant headway into the non-industrial constraints on image-based position measurement using the techniques of image registration and achieve repeatable feature measurements on the order of 0.3% of a pixel, or about an order of magnitude improvement on conventional real-world performance. These measurements are then used as inputs for a model optimal, model agnostic, smoothing for calibration of a laser scribe and online tracking of velocimeter using video input. Using appropriate smooth interpolation to increase effective sample density can reduce uncertainty and improve estimates. Use of the proper negative offset of the template function has the result of creating a convolution with higher local curvature than either template of target function which allows improved center-finding. Using the Akaike Information Criterion with a smoothing spline function it is possible to perform a model-optimal smooth on scalar measurements without knowing the underlying model and to determine the function describing the uncertainty in that optimal smooth. An example of empiric derivation of the parameters for a rudimentary Kalman Filter from this is then provided, and tested. Using the techniques of Exploratory Data Analysis and the "Formulize" genetic algorithm tool to convert the spline models into more accessible analytic forms resulted in stable, properly generalized, KF with performance and simplicity that exceeds "textbook" implementations thereof. Validation of the measurement includes that, in analytic case, it led to arbitrary precision in measurement of feature; in reasonable test case using the methods proposed, a reasonable and consistent maximum error of around 0.3% the length of a pixel was achieved and in practice using pixels that were 700nm in size feature position was located to within ± 2 nm. Robust applicability is demonstrated by the measurement of indicator position for a King model 2-32-G-042 rotameter.
ContributorsMunroe, Michael R (Author) / Phelan, Patrick (Thesis advisor) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / Mahalov, Alex (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
Swarms of animals, fish, birds, locusts etc. are a common occurrence but their coherence and method of organization poses a major question for mathematics and biology.The Vicsek and the Attraction-Repulsion are two models that have been proposed to explain the emergence of collective motion. A major issue for the Vicsek Model is that its particles are not attracted to each other, leaving the swarm with alignment in velocity but without spatial coherence. Restricting the particles to a bounded domain generates global spatial coherence of swarms while maintaining velocity alignment. While individual particles are specularly reflected at the boundary, the swarm as a whole is not. As a result, new dynamical swarming solutions are found.
The Attraction-Repulsion Model set with a long-range attraction and short-range repulsion interaction potential typically stabilizes to a well-studied flock steady state solution. The particles for a flock remain spatially coherent but have no spatial bound and explore all space. A bounded domain with specularly reflecting walls traps the particles within a specific region. A fundamental refraction law for a swarm impacting on a planar boundary is derived. The swarm reflection varies from specular for a swarm dominated by
kinetic energy to inelastic for a swarm dominated by potential energy. Inelastic collisions lead to alignment with the wall and to damped pulsating oscillations of the swarm. The fundamental refraction law provides a one-dimensional iterative map that allows for a prediction and analysis of the trajectory of the center of mass of a flock in a channel and a square domain.
The extension of the wall collisions to a scattering experiment is conducted by setting two identical flocks to collide. The two particle dynamics is studied analytically and shows a transition from scattering: diverging flocks to bound states in the form of oscillations or parallel motions. Numerical studies of collisions of flocks show the same transition where the bound states become either a single translating flock or a rotating (mill).
The Attraction-Repulsion Model set with a long-range attraction and short-range repulsion interaction potential typically stabilizes to a well-studied flock steady state solution. The particles for a flock remain spatially coherent but have no spatial bound and explore all space. A bounded domain with specularly reflecting walls traps the particles within a specific region. A fundamental refraction law for a swarm impacting on a planar boundary is derived. The swarm reflection varies from specular for a swarm dominated by
kinetic energy to inelastic for a swarm dominated by potential energy. Inelastic collisions lead to alignment with the wall and to damped pulsating oscillations of the swarm. The fundamental refraction law provides a one-dimensional iterative map that allows for a prediction and analysis of the trajectory of the center of mass of a flock in a channel and a square domain.
The extension of the wall collisions to a scattering experiment is conducted by setting two identical flocks to collide. The two particle dynamics is studied analytically and shows a transition from scattering: diverging flocks to bound states in the form of oscillations or parallel motions. Numerical studies of collisions of flocks show the same transition where the bound states become either a single translating flock or a rotating (mill).
ContributorsThatcher, Andrea (Author) / Armbruster, Hans (Thesis advisor) / Motsch, Sebastien (Committee member) / Ringhofer, Christian (Committee member) / Platte, Rodrigo (Committee member) / Gardner, Carl (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
The tools developed for the use of investigating dynamical systems have provided critical understanding to a wide range of physical phenomena. Here these tools are used to gain further insight into scalar transport, and how it is affected by mixing. The aim of this research is to investigate the efficiency of several different partitioning methods which demarcate flow fields into dynamically distinct regions, and the correlation of finite-time statistics from the advection-diffusion equation to these regions.
For autonomous systems, invariant manifold theory can be used to separate the system into dynamically distinct regions. Despite there being no equivalent method for nonautonomous systems, a similar analysis can be done. Systems with general time dependencies must resort to using finite-time transport barriers for partitioning; these barriers are the edges of Lagrangian coherent structures (LCS), the analog to the stable and unstable manifolds of invariant manifold theory. Using the coherent structures of a flow to analyze the statistics of trapping, flight, and residence times, the signature of anomalous diffusion are obtained.
This research also investigates the use of linear models for approximating the elements of the covariance matrix of nonlinear flows, and then applying the covariance matrix approximation over coherent regions. The first and second-order moments can be used to fully describe an ensemble evolution in linear systems, however there is no direct method for nonlinear systems. The problem is only compounded by the fact that the moments for nonlinear flows typically don't have analytic representations, therefore direct numerical simulations would be needed to obtain the moments throughout the domain. To circumvent these many computations, the nonlinear system is approximated as many linear systems for which analytic expressions for the moments exist. The parameters introduced in the linear models are obtained locally from the nonlinear deformation tensor.
For autonomous systems, invariant manifold theory can be used to separate the system into dynamically distinct regions. Despite there being no equivalent method for nonautonomous systems, a similar analysis can be done. Systems with general time dependencies must resort to using finite-time transport barriers for partitioning; these barriers are the edges of Lagrangian coherent structures (LCS), the analog to the stable and unstable manifolds of invariant manifold theory. Using the coherent structures of a flow to analyze the statistics of trapping, flight, and residence times, the signature of anomalous diffusion are obtained.
This research also investigates the use of linear models for approximating the elements of the covariance matrix of nonlinear flows, and then applying the covariance matrix approximation over coherent regions. The first and second-order moments can be used to fully describe an ensemble evolution in linear systems, however there is no direct method for nonlinear systems. The problem is only compounded by the fact that the moments for nonlinear flows typically don't have analytic representations, therefore direct numerical simulations would be needed to obtain the moments throughout the domain. To circumvent these many computations, the nonlinear system is approximated as many linear systems for which analytic expressions for the moments exist. The parameters introduced in the linear models are obtained locally from the nonlinear deformation tensor.
ContributorsWalker, Phillip (Author) / Tang, Wenbo (Thesis advisor) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / Mahalov, Alex (Committee member) / Moustaoui, Mohamed (Committee member) / Platte, Rodrigo (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
Predicting resistant prostate cancer is critical for lowering medical costs and improving the quality of life of advanced prostate cancer patients. I formulate, compare, and analyze two mathematical models that aim to forecast future levels of prostate-specific antigen (PSA). I accomplish these tasks by employing clinical data of locally advanced prostate cancer patients undergoing androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). I demonstrate that the inverse problem of parameter estimation might be too complicated and simply relying on data fitting can give incorrect conclusions, since there is a large error in parameter values estimated and parameters might be unidentifiable. I provide confidence intervals to give estimate forecasts using data assimilation via an ensemble Kalman Filter. Using the ensemble Kalman Filter, I perform dual estimation of parameters and state variables to test the prediction accuracy of the models. Finally, I present a novel model with time delay and a delay-dependent parameter. I provide a geometric stability result to study the behavior of this model and show that the inclusion of time delay may improve the accuracy of predictions. Also, I demonstrate with clinical data that the inclusion of the delay-dependent parameter facilitates the identification and estimation of parameters.
ContributorsBaez, Javier (Author) / Kuang, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / Crook, Sharon (Committee member) / Gardner, Carl (Committee member) / Nagy, John (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
Description
Need-based transfers (NBTs) are a form of risk-pooling in which binary welfare exchanges
occur to preserve the viable participation of individuals in an economy, e.g. reciprocal gifting
of cattle among East African herders or food sharing among vampire bats. With the
broad goal of better understanding the mathematics of such binary welfare and risk pooling,
agent-based simulations are conducted to explore socially optimal transfer policies
and sharing network structures, kinetic exchange models that utilize tools from the kinetic
theory of gas dynamics are utilized to characterize the wealth distribution of an NBT economy,
and a variant of repeated prisoner’s dilemma is analyzed to determine whether and
why individuals would participate in such a system of reciprocal altruism.
From agent-based simulation and kinetic exchange models, it is found that regressive
NBT wealth redistribution acts as a cutting stock optimization heuristic that most efficiently
matches deficits to surpluses to improve short-term survival; however, progressive
redistribution leads to a wealth distribution that is more stable in volatile environments and
therefore is optimal for long-term survival. Homogeneous sharing networks with low variance
in degree are found to be ideal for maintaining community viability as the burden and
benefit of NBTs is equally shared. Also, phrasing NBTs as a survivor’s dilemma reveals
parameter regions where the repeated game becomes equivalent to a stag hunt or harmony
game, and thus where cooperation is evolutionarily stable.
occur to preserve the viable participation of individuals in an economy, e.g. reciprocal gifting
of cattle among East African herders or food sharing among vampire bats. With the
broad goal of better understanding the mathematics of such binary welfare and risk pooling,
agent-based simulations are conducted to explore socially optimal transfer policies
and sharing network structures, kinetic exchange models that utilize tools from the kinetic
theory of gas dynamics are utilized to characterize the wealth distribution of an NBT economy,
and a variant of repeated prisoner’s dilemma is analyzed to determine whether and
why individuals would participate in such a system of reciprocal altruism.
From agent-based simulation and kinetic exchange models, it is found that regressive
NBT wealth redistribution acts as a cutting stock optimization heuristic that most efficiently
matches deficits to surpluses to improve short-term survival; however, progressive
redistribution leads to a wealth distribution that is more stable in volatile environments and
therefore is optimal for long-term survival. Homogeneous sharing networks with low variance
in degree are found to be ideal for maintaining community viability as the burden and
benefit of NBTs is equally shared. Also, phrasing NBTs as a survivor’s dilemma reveals
parameter regions where the repeated game becomes equivalent to a stag hunt or harmony
game, and thus where cooperation is evolutionarily stable.
ContributorsKayser, Kirk (Author) / Armbruster, Dieter (Thesis advisor) / Lampert, Adam (Committee member) / Ringhofer, Christian (Committee member) / Motsch, Sebastien (Committee member) / Gardner, Carl (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
This dissertation examines six different models in the field of econophysics using interacting particle systems as the basis of exploration. In each model examined, the underlying structure is a graph G = (V , E ), where each x ∈ V represents an individual who is characterized by the number of coins in her possession at time t. At each time step t, an edge (x, y) ∈ E is chosen at random, resulting in an exchange of coins between individuals x and y according to the rules of the model. Random variables ξt, and ξt(x) keep track of the current configuration and number of coins individual x has at time t respectively. Of particular interest is the distribution of coins in the long run. Considered first are the uniform reshuffling model, immediate exchange model and model with saving propensity. For each of these models, the number of coins an individual can have is nonnegative and the total number of coins in the system is conserved for all time. It is shown here that the distribution of coins converges to the exponential distribution, gamma distribution and a pseudo gamma distribution respectively. The next two models introduce debt, however, the total number of coins again remains fixed. It is shown here that when there is an individual debt limit, the number of coins per individual converges to a shifted exponential distribution. Alternatively, when a collective debt limit is imposed on the whole population, a heuristic argument is given supporting the conjecture that the distribution of coins converges to an asymmetric Laplace distribution. The final model considered focuses on the effect of cooperation on a population. Unlike the previous models discussed here, the total number of coins in the system at any given time is not bounded and the process evolves in continuous time rather than in discrete time. For this model, death of an individual will occur if they run out of coins. It is shown here that the survival probability for the population is impacted by the level of cooperation along with how productive the population is as whole.
ContributorsReed, Stephanie Jo (Author) / Lanchier, Nicolas (Thesis advisor) / Smith, Hal (Committee member) / Gumel, Abba (Committee member) / Motsch, Sebastien (Committee member) / Camacho, Erika (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
Description
Two urban flows are analyzed, one concerned with pollutant transport in a Phoenix, Arizona neighborhood and the other with windshear detection at the Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA).
Lagrangian measures, identified with finite-time Lyapunov exponents, are first used to characterize transport patterns of inertial pollutant particles. Motivated by actual events the focus is on flows in realistic urban geometry. Both deterministic and stochastic transport patterns are identified, as inertial Lagrangian coherent structures. For the deterministic case, the organizing structures are well defined and are extracted at different hours of a day to reveal the variability of coherent patterns. For the stochastic case, a random displacement model for fluid particles is formulated, and used to derive the governing equations for inertial particles to examine the change in organizing structures due to ``zeroth-order'' random noise. It is found that, (1) the Langevin equation for inertial particles can be reduced to a random displacement model; (2) using random noise based on inhomogeneous turbulence, whose diffusivity is derived from $k$-$\epsilon$ models, major coherent structures survive to organize local flow patterns and weaker structures are smoothed out due to random motion.
A study of three-dimensional Lagrangian coherent structures (LCS) near HKIA is then presented and related to previous developments of two-dimensional (2D) LCS analyses in detecting windshear experienced by landing aircraft. The LCS are contrasted among three independent models and against 2D coherent Doppler light detection and ranging (LIDAR) data. Addition of the velocity information perpendicular to the lidar scanning cone helps solidify flow structures inferred from previous studies; contrast among models reveals the intramodel variability; and comparison with flight data evaluates the performance among models in terms of Lagrangian analyses. It is found that, while the three models and the LIDAR do recover similar features of the windshear experienced by a landing aircraft (along the landing trajectory), their Lagrangian signatures over the entire domain are quite different - a portion of each numerical model captures certain features resembling those LCS extracted from independent 2D LIDAR analyses based on observations. Overall, it was found that the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model provides the best agreement with the LIDAR data.
Finally, the three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation scheme in WRF is used to incorporate the LIDAR line of sight velocity observations into the WRF model forecast at HKIA. Using two different days as test cases, it is found that the LIDAR data can be successfully and consistently assimilated into WRF. Using the updated model forecast LCS are extracted along the LIDAR scanning cone and compare to onboard flight data. It is found that the LCS generated from the updated WRF forecasts are generally better correlated with the windshear experienced by landing aircraft as compared to the LIDAR extracted LCS alone, which suggests that such a data assimilation scheme could be used for the prediction of windshear events.
Lagrangian measures, identified with finite-time Lyapunov exponents, are first used to characterize transport patterns of inertial pollutant particles. Motivated by actual events the focus is on flows in realistic urban geometry. Both deterministic and stochastic transport patterns are identified, as inertial Lagrangian coherent structures. For the deterministic case, the organizing structures are well defined and are extracted at different hours of a day to reveal the variability of coherent patterns. For the stochastic case, a random displacement model for fluid particles is formulated, and used to derive the governing equations for inertial particles to examine the change in organizing structures due to ``zeroth-order'' random noise. It is found that, (1) the Langevin equation for inertial particles can be reduced to a random displacement model; (2) using random noise based on inhomogeneous turbulence, whose diffusivity is derived from $k$-$\epsilon$ models, major coherent structures survive to organize local flow patterns and weaker structures are smoothed out due to random motion.
A study of three-dimensional Lagrangian coherent structures (LCS) near HKIA is then presented and related to previous developments of two-dimensional (2D) LCS analyses in detecting windshear experienced by landing aircraft. The LCS are contrasted among three independent models and against 2D coherent Doppler light detection and ranging (LIDAR) data. Addition of the velocity information perpendicular to the lidar scanning cone helps solidify flow structures inferred from previous studies; contrast among models reveals the intramodel variability; and comparison with flight data evaluates the performance among models in terms of Lagrangian analyses. It is found that, while the three models and the LIDAR do recover similar features of the windshear experienced by a landing aircraft (along the landing trajectory), their Lagrangian signatures over the entire domain are quite different - a portion of each numerical model captures certain features resembling those LCS extracted from independent 2D LIDAR analyses based on observations. Overall, it was found that the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model provides the best agreement with the LIDAR data.
Finally, the three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation scheme in WRF is used to incorporate the LIDAR line of sight velocity observations into the WRF model forecast at HKIA. Using two different days as test cases, it is found that the LIDAR data can be successfully and consistently assimilated into WRF. Using the updated model forecast LCS are extracted along the LIDAR scanning cone and compare to onboard flight data. It is found that the LCS generated from the updated WRF forecasts are generally better correlated with the windshear experienced by landing aircraft as compared to the LIDAR extracted LCS alone, which suggests that such a data assimilation scheme could be used for the prediction of windshear events.
ContributorsKnutson, Brent (Author) / Tang, Wenbo (Thesis advisor) / Calhoun, Ronald (Committee member) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Committee member) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / Mahalov, Alex (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
I investigate two models interacting agent systems: the first is motivated by the flocking and swarming behaviors in biological systems, while the second models opinion formation in social networks. In each setting, I define natural notions of convergence (to a ``flock" and to a ``consensus'', respectively), and study the convergence properties of each in the limit as $t \rightarrow \infty$. Specifically, I provide sufficient conditions for the convergence of both of the models, and conduct numerical experiments to study the resulting solutions.
ContributorsTheisen, Ryan (Author) / Motsch, Sebastien (Thesis advisor) / Lanchier, Nicholas (Committee member) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018