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Description
Diseases have been part of human life for generations and evolve within the population, sometimes dying out while other times becoming endemic or the cause of recurrent outbreaks. The long term influence of a disease stems from different dynamics within or between pathogen-host, that have been analyzed and studied by many researchers using mathematical models. Co-infection with different pathogens is common, yet little is known about how infection with one pathogen affects the host's immunological response to another. Moreover, no work has been found in the literature that considers the variability of the host immune health or that examines a disease at the population level and its corresponding interconnectedness with the host immune system. Knowing that the spread of the disease in the population starts at the individual level, this thesis explores how variability in immune system response within an endemic environment affects an individual's vulnerability, and how prone it is to co-infections. Immunology-based models of Malaria and Tuberculosis (TB) are constructed by extending and modifying existing mathematical models in the literature. The two are then combined to give a single nine-variable model of co-infection with Malaria and TB. Because these models are difficult to gain any insight analytically due to the large number of parameters, a phenomenological model of co-infection is proposed with subsystems corresponding to the individual immunology-based model of a single infection. Within this phenomenological model, the variability of the host immune health is also incorporated through three different pathogen response curves using nonlinear bounded Michaelis-Menten functions that describe the level or state of immune system (healthy, moderate and severely compromised). The immunology-based models of Malaria and TB give numerical results that agree with the biological observations. The Malaria--TB co-infection model gives reasonable results and these suggest that the order in which the two diseases are introduced have an impact on the behavior of both. The subsystems of the phenomenological models that correspond to a single infection (either of Malaria or TB) mimic much of the observed behavior of the immunology-based counterpart and can demonstrate different behavior depending on the chosen pathogen response curve. In addition, varying some of the parameters and initial conditions in the phenomenological model yields a range of topologically different mathematical behaviors, which suggests that this behavior may be able to be observed in the immunology-based models as well. The phenomenological models clearly replicate the qualitative behavior of primary and secondary infection as well as co-infection. The mathematical solutions of the models correspond to the fundamental states described by immunologists: virgin state, immune state and tolerance state. The phenomenological model of co-infection also demonstrates a range of parameter values and initial conditions in which the introduction of a second disease causes both diseases to grow without bound even though those same parameters and initial conditions did not yield unbounded growth in the corresponding subsystems. This results applies to all three states of the host immune system. In terms of the immunology-based system, this would suggest the following: there may be parameter values and initial conditions in which a person can clear Malaria or TB (separately) from their system but in which the presence of both can result in the person dying of one of the diseases. Finally, this thesis studies links between epidemiology (population level) and immunology in an effort to assess the impact of pathogen's spread within the population on the immune response of individuals. Models of Malaria and TB are proposed that incorporate the immune system of the host into a mathematical model of an epidemic at the population level.
ContributorsSoho, Edmé L (Author) / Wirkus, Stephen (Thesis advisor) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Thesis advisor) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
Solution methods for certain linear and nonlinear evolution equations are presented in this dissertation. Emphasis is placed mainly on the analytical treatment of nonautonomous differential equations, which are challenging to solve despite the existent numerical and symbolic computational software programs available. Ideas from the transformation theory are adopted allowing one to solve the problems under consideration from a non-traditional perspective. First, the Cauchy initial value problem is considered for a class of nonautonomous and inhomogeneous linear diffusion-type equation on the entire real line. Explicit transformations are used to reduce the equations under study to their corresponding standard forms emphasizing on natural relations with certain Riccati(and/or Ermakov)-type systems. These relations give solvability results for the Cauchy problem of the parabolic equation considered. The superposition principle allows to solve formally this problem from an unconventional point of view. An eigenfunction expansion approach is also considered for this general evolution equation. Examples considered to corroborate the efficacy of the proposed solution methods include the Fokker-Planck equation, the Black-Scholes model and the one-factor Gaussian Hull-White model. The results obtained in the first part are used to solve the Cauchy initial value problem for certain inhomogeneous Burgers-type equation. The connection between linear (the Diffusion-type) and nonlinear (Burgers-type) parabolic equations is stress in order to establish a strong commutative relation. Traveling wave solutions of a nonautonomous Burgers equation are also investigated. Finally, it is constructed explicitly the minimum-uncertainty squeezed states for quantum harmonic oscillators. They are derived by the action of corresponding maximal kinematical invariance group on the standard ground state solution. It is shown that the product of the variances attains the required minimum value only at the instances that one variance is a minimum and the other is a maximum, when the squeezing of one of the variances occurs. Such explicit construction is possible due to the relation between the diffusion-type equation studied in the first part and the time-dependent Schrodinger equation. A modication of the radiation field operators for squeezed photons in a perfect cavity is also suggested with the help of a nonstandard solution of Heisenberg's equation of motion.
ContributorsVega-Guzmán, José Manuel, 1982- (Author) / Sulov, Sergei K (Thesis advisor) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Thesis advisor) / Platte, Rodrigo (Committee member) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Consideration of both biological and human-use dynamics in coupled social-ecological systems is essential for the success of interventions such as marine reserves. As purely human institutions, marine reserves have no direct effects on ecological systems. Consequently, the success of a marine reserve depends on managers` ability to alter human behavior in the direction and magnitude that supports reserve objectives. Further, a marine reserve is just one component in a larger coupled social-ecological system. The social, economic, political, and biological landscape all determine the social acceptability of a reserve, conflicts that arise, how the reserve interacts with existing fisheries management, accuracy of reserve monitoring, and whether the reserve is ultimately able to meet conservation and fishery enhancement goals. Just as the social-ecological landscape is critical at all stages for marine reserve, from initial establishment to maintenance, the reserve in turn interacts with biological and human use dynamics beyond its borders. Those interactions can lead to the failure of a reserve to meet management goals, or compromise management goals outside the reserve. I use a bio-economic model of a fishery in a spatially patchy environment to demonstrate how the pre-reserve fisheries management strategy determines the pattern of fishing effort displacement once the reserve is established, and discuss the social, political, and biological consequences of different patterns for the reserve and the fishery. Using a stochastic bio-economic model, I demonstrate how biological and human use connectivity can confound the accurate detection of reserve effects by violating assumptions in the quasi-experimental framework. Finally, I examine data on recreational fishing site selection to investigate changes in response to the announcement of enforcement of a marine reserve in the Gulf of California, Mexico. I generate a scale of fines that would fully or partially protect the reserve, providing a data-driven way for managers to balance biological and socio-economic goals. I suggest that natural resource managers consider human use dynamics with the same frequency, rigor, and tools as they do biological stocks.
ContributorsFujitani, Marie (Author) / Abbott, Joshua (Thesis advisor) / Fenichel, Eli (Thesis advisor) / Gerber, Leah (Committee member) / Anderies, John (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
This paper studies the change in social diversity and interaction space from the Classic to Postclassic periods in the Mimbres Valley and East Mimbres Area. Between the Classic and Postclassic periods the Mimbres region of the American Southwest exhibits an increase in diversity of ceramic wares. Previous research suggests that increased diversity of ceramics indicates a more diverse community, which could pose challenges to local social interaction (Nelson et al. 2011). I am interested in whether the architecture of plazas, focal points of communities' social structures, change in response to the growing social diversity. To examine this, I quantify the diversity of painted ceramics at Classic and Postclassic villages as well as the extent of the enclosure of plazas. I find that there is a definite shift towards greater plaza enclosure between the Classic and Postclassic periods. I conclude this paper with a discussion of possible interpretations of this trend regarding the social reactions of Mimbres communities to the changes which reshaped the region between the Classic and Postclassic periods.
ContributorsHarkness, Rebecca Jean (Author) / Nelson, Margaret (Thesis director) / Hegmon, Michelle (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor) / School of Historical, Philosophical and Religious Studies (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
Mortality of 1918 influenza virus was high, partly due to bacteria coinfections. We characterize pandemic mortality in Arizona, which had high prevalence of tuberculosis. We applied regressions to over 35,000 data points to estimate the basic reproduction number and excess mortality. Age-specific mortality curves show elevated mortality for all age groups, especially the young, and senior sparing effects. The low value for reproduction number indicates that transmissibility was moderately low.
ContributorsJenner, Melinda Eva (Author) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Thesis director) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
Background: While research has quantified the mortality burden of the 1957 H2N2 influenza pandemic in the United States, little is known about how the virus spread locally in Arizona, an area where the dry climate was promoted as reducing respiratory illness transmission yet tuberculosis prevalence was high.
Methods: Using archival death certificates from 1954 to 1961, this study quantified the age-specific seasonal patterns, excess-mortality rates, and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona. By applying cyclical Serfling linear regression models to weekly mortality rates, the excess-mortality rates due to respiratory and all-causes were estimated for each age group during the pandemic period. The reproduction number was quantified from weekly data using a simple growth rate method and generation intervals of 3 and 4 days. Local newspaper articles from The Arizona Republic were analyzed from 1957-1958.
Results: Excess-mortality rates varied between waves, age groups, and causes of death, but overall remained low. From October 1959-June 1960, the most severe wave of the pandemic, the absolute excess-mortality rate based on respiratory deaths per 10,000 population was 17.85 in the elderly (≥65 years). All other age groups had extremely low excess-mortality and the typical U-shaped age-pattern was absent. However, relative risk was greatest (3.61) among children and young adolescents (5-14 years) from October 1957-March 1958, based on incidence rates of respiratory deaths. Transmissibility was greatest during the same 1957-1958 period, when the mean reproduction number was 1.08-1.11, assuming 3 or 4 day generation intervals and exponential or fixed distributions.
Conclusions: Maricopa County largely avoided pandemic influenza from 1957-1961. Understanding this historical pandemic and the absence of high excess-mortality rates and transmissibility in Maricopa County may help public health officials prepare for and mitigate future outbreaks of influenza.
Methods: Using archival death certificates from 1954 to 1961, this study quantified the age-specific seasonal patterns, excess-mortality rates, and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona. By applying cyclical Serfling linear regression models to weekly mortality rates, the excess-mortality rates due to respiratory and all-causes were estimated for each age group during the pandemic period. The reproduction number was quantified from weekly data using a simple growth rate method and generation intervals of 3 and 4 days. Local newspaper articles from The Arizona Republic were analyzed from 1957-1958.
Results: Excess-mortality rates varied between waves, age groups, and causes of death, but overall remained low. From October 1959-June 1960, the most severe wave of the pandemic, the absolute excess-mortality rate based on respiratory deaths per 10,000 population was 17.85 in the elderly (≥65 years). All other age groups had extremely low excess-mortality and the typical U-shaped age-pattern was absent. However, relative risk was greatest (3.61) among children and young adolescents (5-14 years) from October 1957-March 1958, based on incidence rates of respiratory deaths. Transmissibility was greatest during the same 1957-1958 period, when the mean reproduction number was 1.08-1.11, assuming 3 or 4 day generation intervals and exponential or fixed distributions.
Conclusions: Maricopa County largely avoided pandemic influenza from 1957-1961. Understanding this historical pandemic and the absence of high excess-mortality rates and transmissibility in Maricopa County may help public health officials prepare for and mitigate future outbreaks of influenza.
ContributorsCobos, April J (Author) / Jehn, Megan (Thesis director) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
This project created a teaching curriculum resource guide for using the popular series, The Hunger Games, in 6th-8th grade classrooms to introduce cultural issues such as child soldiers and international development to students. Studies have shown that literature can cultivate empathy and encourage youth to act. This combined with the expanding phenomenon of participatory culture and fandom activism as outlined by Henry Jenkins demonstrate the potential for youth to learn and act when given the opportunity and resources to do so. The curriculum is composed of three units: The first is a three-week reading of the books with various activities for students to really understand the narrative and source text. The second and third units address the issues of child soldiers and international development using The Hunger Games as a framework and a keystone to build connections so that these complex issues are accessible to youth. This project is a first step in the development of a curriculum that spans the full trilogy and covers a variety of current event topics.
ContributorsSimpson, Rebecca (Author) / Sivak, Henry (Thesis director) / Blasingame, James (Committee member) / Nelson, Margaret (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor)
Created2014-05
Description
Background: Latinos represent 40.8% of the population in Phoenix (U.S. Census Bureau Population Division, 2010). South Phoenix, also known as the South Mountain Village, defined in geographical terms as area zip codes 85040 and 85042; is a predominantly Latino community comprised of mixed citizenship status households. During the 2010 United States Census 60.3% of the population in South Phoenix identified as Latino, 25.75% of the total population was foreign born. Of the foreign born population, 88.95% were of Latin American origin (United States Census Bureau, 2007-2011 American Community Survey). Understanding how Latino immigrants perceive differences in health between their communities in country of origin and communities in the United States is largely unknown. Irrespective of political positions, understanding how Latino immigrants perceive personal health and the health of their communities is of interest to inform public policy and implement needed interventions in the
public health sphere.
Methods: Semi-structured interviews were collected from 55 adults from the South Phoenix community between November 2009 and September 2010. Interviews were digitally recorded with participant permission and transcribed. Of those collected, 48 transcribed interviews were analyzed using a codebook designed by the researcher. Percent agreement evaluated inter-rater reliability.Results: Latino immigrants in South Phoenix largely agree that health quality is heavily dependent on personal responsibility and not an intrinsic attribute of a given place. Emotional contentedness and distress, both factors of mental health, are impacted by cross-cultural differences between Latino and U.S. culture systems.
Conclusions: As people’s personal perceptions of differences in health are complex concepts influenced by personal backgrounds, culture, and beliefs, attempting to demark a side of the border as ‘healthier’ than the other using personal perceptions is overly simplified and misses central concepts. Instead, exploration of individual variables impacting health allowed this study to gain a more nuanced understanding in how people determine quality of both personal and environmental health. While Latino migrants in South Phoenix largely agree that health is based on personal responsibility and choices, many nonetheless experience higher levels of contentedness and emotional health in their country of origin.
public health sphere.
Methods: Semi-structured interviews were collected from 55 adults from the South Phoenix community between November 2009 and September 2010. Interviews were digitally recorded with participant permission and transcribed. Of those collected, 48 transcribed interviews were analyzed using a codebook designed by the researcher. Percent agreement evaluated inter-rater reliability.Results: Latino immigrants in South Phoenix largely agree that health quality is heavily dependent on personal responsibility and not an intrinsic attribute of a given place. Emotional contentedness and distress, both factors of mental health, are impacted by cross-cultural differences between Latino and U.S. culture systems.
Conclusions: As people’s personal perceptions of differences in health are complex concepts influenced by personal backgrounds, culture, and beliefs, attempting to demark a side of the border as ‘healthier’ than the other using personal perceptions is overly simplified and misses central concepts. Instead, exploration of individual variables impacting health allowed this study to gain a more nuanced understanding in how people determine quality of both personal and environmental health. While Latino migrants in South Phoenix largely agree that health is based on personal responsibility and choices, many nonetheless experience higher levels of contentedness and emotional health in their country of origin.
ContributorsGray, Laurel (Author) / Wutich, Amber (Thesis director) / Quiroga, S. Seline (Committee member) / Nelson, Margaret (Committee member) / Slade, B. Alexandra (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor)
Created2013-05
Description
The Mimbres tradition of southwestern New Mexico, underwent what can be characterized as continuity with change, a form of non-collapse transformation, from the Late Pithouse (ca. 550-1000 CE) to Classic (ca. 1000-1130 CE) period. Both transitions are characterized by large-scale shifts in housing, settlement patterns, pottery, and mortuary customs.The goal of this thesis is to evaluate changes in the intrasite and inter-site frequencies of selected nonlocal items in Mimbres burial contexts dating to the Late Pithouse and Classic periods. Because those living in the Mimbres region seem to have dramatically changed the ways in which they lived and expressed their social identities it is reasonable to assume that their mortuary use of these high-value objects might have also transformed.
ContributorsOwen, Paige Elizabeth (Author) / Nelson, Ben (Thesis director) / Nelson, Margaret (Committee member) / Russell, Will (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor)
Created2013-12
DescriptionThis paper provides an analysis of the differences in impacts made by companies that promote their sustainability efforts. A comparison of companies reveals that the ones with greater supply chain influence and larger consumer bases can make more concrete progress in terms of accomplishment for the sustainability realm.
ContributorsBeaubien, Courtney Lynn (Author) / Anderies, John (Thesis director) / Allenby, Brad (Committee member) / Janssen, Marco (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor)
Created2013-05