The apolipoprotein E (APOE) e4 allele is the most prevalent genetic risk factor for Alzheimer's disease (AD). Hippocampal volumes are generally smaller in AD patients carrying the e4 allele compared to e4 noncarriers. Here we examined the effect of APOE e4 on hippocampal morphometry in a large imaging database—the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). We automatically segmented and constructed hippocampal surfaces from the baseline MR images of 725 subjects with known APOE genotype information including 167 with AD, 354 with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and 204 normal controls. High-order correspondences between hippocampal surfaces were enforced across subjects with a novel inverse consistent surface fluid registration method. Multivariate statistics consisting of multivariate tensor-based morphometry (mTBM) and radial distance were computed for surface deformation analysis. Using Hotelling's T2 test, we found significant morphological deformation in APOE e4 carriers relative to noncarriers in the entire cohort as well as in the nondemented (pooled MCI and control) subjects, affecting the left hippocampus more than the right, and this effect was more pronounced in e4 homozygotes than heterozygotes. Our findings are consistent with previous studies that showed e4 carriers exhibit accelerated hippocampal atrophy; we extend these findings to a novel measure of hippocampal morphometry. Hippocampal morphometry has significant potential as an imaging biomarker of early stage AD.

Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) is a transitional stage between normal aging and dementia and people with MCI are at high risk of progression to dementia. MCI is attracting increasing attention, as it offers an opportunity to target the disease process during an early symptomatic stage. Structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) measures have been the mainstay of Alzheimer's disease (AD) imaging research, however, ventricular morphometry analysis remains challenging because of its complicated topological structure. Here we describe a novel ventricular morphometry system based on the hyperbolic Ricci flow method and tensor-based morphometry (TBM) statistics. Unlike prior ventricular surface parameterization methods, hyperbolic conformal parameterization is angle-preserving and does not have any singularities. Our system generates a one-to-one diffeomorphic mapping between ventricular surfaces with consistent boundary matching conditions. The TBM statistics encode a great deal of surface deformation information that could be inaccessible or overlooked by other methods. We applied our system to the baseline MRI scans of a set of MCI subjects from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI: 71 MCI converters vs. 62 MCI stable). Although the combined ventricular area and volume features did not differ between the two groups, our fine-grained surface analysis revealed significant differences in the ventricular regions close to the temporal lobe and posterior cingulate, structures that are affected early in AD. Significant correlations were also detected between ventricular morphometry, neuropsychological measures, and a previously described imaging index based on fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) scans. This novel ventricular morphometry method may offer a new and more sensitive approach to study preclinical and early symptomatic stage AD.

The apolipoprotein E (APOE) e4 genotype is a powerful risk factor for late-onset Alzheimer’s disease (AD). In the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) cohort, we previously reported significant baseline structural differences in APOE e4 carriers relative to non-carriers, involving the left hippocampus more than the right—a difference more pronounced in e4 homozygotes than heterozygotes. We now examine the longitudinal effects of APOE genotype on hippocampal morphometry at 6-, 12- and 24-months, in the ADNI cohort. We employed a new automated surface registration system based on conformal geometry and tensor-based morphometry. Among different hippocampal surfaces, we computed high-order correspondences, using a novel inverse-consistent surface-based fluid registration method and multivariate statistics consisting of multivariate tensor-based morphometry (mTBM) and radial distance. At each time point, using Hotelling’s T² test, we found significant morphological deformation in APOE e4 carriers relative to non-carriers in the full cohort as well as in the non-demented (pooled MCI and control) subjects at each follow-up interval. In the complete ADNI cohort, we found greater atrophy of the left hippocampus than the right, and this asymmetry was more pronounced in e4 homozygotes than heterozygotes. These findings, combined with our earlier investigations, demonstrate an e4 dose effect on accelerated hippocampal atrophy, and support the enrichment of prevention trial cohorts with e4 carriers.

The sensitivity of Earth’s wetlands to observed shifts in global precipitation and temperature patterns and their ability to produce large quantities of methane gas are key global change questions. We present a microwave satellite-based approach for mapping fractional surface water (FW) globally at 25-km resolution. The approach employs a land cover-supported, atmospherically-corrected dynamic mixture model applied to 20+ years (1992–2013) of combined, daily, passive/active microwave remote sensing data. The resulting product, known as Surface Water Microwave Product Series (SWAMPS), shows strong microwave sensitivity to sub-grid scale open water and inundated wetlands comprising open plant canopies. SWAMPS’ FW compares favorably (R² = 91%–94%) with higher-resolution, global-scale maps of open water from MODIS and SRTM-MOD44W. Correspondence of SWAMPS with open water and wetland products from satellite SAR in Alaska and the Amazon deteriorates when exposed wetlands or inundated forests captured by the SAR products were added to the open water fraction reflecting SWAMPS’ inability to detect water underneath the soil surface or beneath closed forest canopies. Except for a brief period of drying during the first 4 years of observation, the inundation extent for the global domain excluding the coast was largely stable. Regionally, inundation in North America is advancing while inundation is on the retreat in Tropical Africa and North Eurasia. SWAMPS provides a consistent and long-term global record of daily FW dynamics, with documented accuracies suitable for hydrologic assessment and global change-related investigations.

A warming climate is altering land-atmosphere exchanges of carbon, with a potential for increased vegetation productivity as well as the mobilization of permafrost soil carbon stores. Here we investigate land-atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO₂) cycling through analysis of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and its component fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) and soil carbon residence time, simulated by a set of land surface models (LSMs) over a region spanning the drainage basin of Northern Eurasia. The retrospective simulations cover the period 1960–2009 at 0.5° resolution, which is a scale common among many global carbon and climate model simulations. Model performance benchmarks were drawn from comparisons against both observed CO₂ fluxes derived from site-based eddy covariance measurements as well as regional-scale GPP estimates based on satellite remote-sensing data.

The site-based comparisons depict a tendency for overestimates in GPP and ER for several of the models, particularly at the two sites to the south. For several models the spatial pattern in GPP explains less than half the variance in the MODIS MOD17 GPP product. Across the models NEP increases by as little as 0.01 to as much as 0.79 g C m^-2 yr^-2, equivalent to 3 to 340 % of the respective model means, over the analysis period. For the multimodel average the increase is 135 % of the mean from the first to last 10 years of record (1960–1969 vs. 2000–2009), with a weakening CO₂ sink over the latter decades. Vegetation net primary productivity increased by 8 to 30 % from the first to last 10 years, contributing to soil carbon storage gains. The range in regional mean NEP among the group is twice the multimodel mean, indicative of the uncertainty in CO₂ sink strength.

The models simulate that inputs to the soil carbon pool exceeded losses, resulting in a net soil carbon gain amid a decrease in residence time. Our analysis points to improvements in model elements controlling vegetation productivity and soil respiration as being needed for reducing uncertainty in land-atmosphere CO₂ exchange. These advances will require collection of new field data on vegetation and soil dynamics, the development of benchmarking data sets from measurements and remote-sensing observations, and investments in future model development and intercomparison studies.

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) involves a gradual breakdown of brain connectivity, and network analyses offer a promising new approach to track and understand disease progression. Even so, our ability to detect degenerative changes in brain networks depends on the methods used. Here we compared several tractography and feature extraction methods to see which ones gave best diagnostic classification for 202 people with AD, mild cognitive impairment or normal cognition, scanned with 41-gradient diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging as part of the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) project. We computed brain networks based on whole brain tractography with nine different methods – four of them tensor-based deterministic (FACT, RK2, SL, and TL), two orientation distribution function (ODF)-based deterministic (FACT, RK2), two ODF-based probabilistic approaches (Hough and PICo), and one “ball-and-stick” approach (Probtrackx). Brain networks derived from different tractography algorithms did not differ in terms of classification performance on ADNI, but performing principal components analysis on networks helped classification in some cases. Small differences may still be detectable in a truly vast cohort, but these experiments help assess the relative advantages of different tractography algorithms, and different post-processing choices, when used for classification.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a progressive brain disease. Accurate detection of AD and its prodromal stage, mild cognitive impairment (MCI), are crucial. There is also a growing interest in identifying brain imaging biomarkers that help to automatically differentiate stages of Alzheimer's disease. Here, we focused on brain structural networks computed from diffusion MRI and proposed a new feature extraction and classification framework based on higher order singular value decomposition and sparse logistic regression. In tests on publicly available data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, our proposed framework showed promise in detecting brain network differences that help in classifying different stages of Alzheimer's disease.

Soil temperature (T_s) change is a key indicator of the dynamics of permafrost. On seasonal and interannual timescales, the variability of T_s determines the active-layer depth, which regulates hydrological soil properties and biogeochemical processes. On the multi-decadal scale, increasing T_s not only drives permafrost thaw/retreat but can also trigger and accelerate the decomposition of soil organic carbon. The magnitude of permafrost carbon feedbacks is thus closely linked to the rate of change of soil thermal regimes. In this study, we used nine process-based ecosystem models with permafrost processes, all forced by different observation-based climate forcing during the period 1960–2000, to characterize the warming rate of T_s in permafrost regions. There is a large spread of T_s trends at 20 cm depth across the models, with trend values ranging from 0.010 ± 0.003 to 0.031 ± 0.005 °C yr^-1. Most models show smaller increase in T_s with increasing depth. Air temperature (Tsub>a) and longwave downward radiation (LWDR) are the main drivers of T_s trends, but their relative contributions differ amongst the models. Different trends of LWDR used in the forcing of models can explain 61 % of their differences in T_s trends, while trends of T_a only explain 5 % of the differences in T_s trends. Uncertain climate forcing contributes a larger uncertainty in T_s trends (0.021 ± 0.008 °C yr^-1, mean ± standard deviation) than the uncertainty of model structure (0.012 ± 0.001 °C yr^-1), diagnosed from the range of response between different models, normalized to the same forcing. In addition, the loss rate of near-surface permafrost area, defined as total area where the maximum seasonal active-layer thickness (ALT) is less than 3 m loss rate, is found to be significantly correlated with the magnitude of the trends of T_s at 1 m depth across the models (R = −0.85, P = 0.003), but not with the initial total near-surface permafrost area (R = −0.30, P = 0.438). The sensitivity of the total boreal near-surface permafrost area to T_s at 1 m is estimated to be of −2.80 ± 0.67 million km²°C^-1. Finally, by using two long-term LWDR data sets and relationships between trends of LWDR and T_s across models, we infer an observation-constrained total boreal near-surface permafrost area decrease comprising between 39 ± 14  ×  10³ and 75 ± 14  ×  10³km²yr^-1 from 1960 to 2000. This corresponds to 9–18 % degradation of the current permafrost area.

A realistic simulation of snow cover and its thermal properties are important for accurate modelling of permafrost. We analyse simulated relationships between air and near-surface (20  cm) soil temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere permafrost region during winter, with a particular focus on snow insulation effects in nine land surface models, and compare them with observations from 268 Russian stations. There are large cross-model differences in the simulated differences between near-surface soil and air temperatures (ΔT; 3 to 14 °C), in the sensitivity of soil-to-air temperature (0.13 to 0.96 °C °^C-1), and in the relationship between ΔT and snow depth. The observed relationship between ΔT and snow depth can be used as a metric to evaluate the effects of each model's representation of snow insulation, hence guide improvements to the model's conceptual structure and process parameterisations. Models with better performance apply multilayer snow schemes and consider complex snow processes. Some models show poor performance in representing snow insulation due to underestimation of snow depth and/or overestimation of snow conductivity. Generally, models identified as most acceptable with respect to snow insulation simulate reasonable areas of near-surface permafrost (13.19 to 15.77 million  km²). However, there is not a simple relationship between the sophistication of the snow insulation in the acceptable models and the simulated area of Northern Hemisphere near-surface permafrost, because several other factors, such as soil depth used in the models, the treatment of soil organic matter content, hydrology and vegetation cover, also affect the simulated permafrost distribution.

In this paper, we develop a new automated surface registration system based on surface conformal parameterization by holomorphic 1-forms, inverse consistent surface fluid registration, and multivariate tensor-based morphometty (mTBM). First, we conformally map a surface onto a planar rectangle space with holomorphic 1-forms. Second, we compute surface conformal representation by combining its local conformal factor and mean curvature and linearly scale the dynamic range of the conformal representation to form the feature image of the surface. Third, we align the feature image with a chosen template image via the fluid image registration algorithm, which has been extended into the curvilinear coordinates to adjust for the distortion introduced by surface parameterization. The inverse consistent image registration algorithm is also incorporated in the system to jointly estimate the forward and inverse transformations between the study and template images. This alignment induces a corresponding deformation on the surface. We tested the system on Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) baseline dataset to study AD symptoms on hippocampus. In our system, by modeling a hippocampus as a 3D parametric surface, we nonlinearly registered each surface with a selected template surface. Then we used mTBM to analyze the morphometry difference between diagnostic groups. Experimental results show that the new system has better performance than two publicly available subcortical surface registration tools: FIRST and SPHARM. We also analyzed the genetic influence of the Apolipoprotein E(is an element of)4 allele (ApoE4), which is considered as the most prevalent risk factor for AD. Our work successfully detected statistically significant difference between ApoE4 carriers and non-carriers in both patients of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and healthy control subjects. The results show evidence that the ApoE genotype may be associated with accelerated brain atrophy so that our work provides a new MRI analysis tool that may help presymptomatic AD research.