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Mathematical epidemiology, one of the oldest and richest areas in mathematical biology, has significantly enhanced our understanding of how pathogens emerge, evolve, and spread. Classical epidemiological models, the standard for predicting and managing the spread of infectious disease, assume that contacts between susceptible and infectious individuals depend on their relative frequency in the population. The behavioral factors that underpin contact rates are not generally addressed. There is, however, an emerging a class of models that addresses the feedbacks between infectious disease dynamics and the behavioral decisions driving host contact. Referred to as “economic epidemiology” or “epidemiological economics,” the approach explores the determinants of decisions about the number and type of contacts made by individuals, using insights and methods from economics. We show how the approach has the potential both to improve predictions of the course of infectious disease, and to support development of novel approaches to infectious disease management.
ContributorsPerrings, Charles (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Author) / Daszak, Peter (Author) / Fenichel, Eli P. (Author) / Finnoff, David (Author) / Horan, Richard D. (Author) / Kilpatrick, A. Marm (Author) / Kinzig, Ann (Author) / Kuminoff, Nicolai (Author) / Levin, Simon (Author) / Morin, Benjamin (Author) / Smith, Katherine F. (Author) / Springborn, Michael (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor) / W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Economics (Contributor) / Julie Ann Wrigley Global Institute of Sustainability (Contributor)
Created2015-12-01
Description
Honey bee workers display remarkable flexibility in the aging process. This plasticity is closely tied to behavioral maturation. Workers who initiate foraging behavior at earlier ages have shorter lifespans, and much of the variation in total lifespan can be explained by differences in pre-foraging lifespan. Vitellogenin (Vg), a yolk precursor protein, influences worker lifespan both as a regulator of behavioral maturation and through anti-oxidant and immune functions. Experimental reduction of Vg mRNA, and thus Vg protein levels, in wild-type bees results in precocious foraging behavior, decreased lifespan, and increased susceptibility to oxidative damage. We sought to separate the effects of Vg on lifespan due to behavioral maturation from those due to immune and antioxidant function using two selected strains of honey bees that differ in their phenotypic responsiveness to Vg gene knockdown. Surprisingly, we found that lifespans lengthen in the strain described as behaviorally and hormonally insensitive to Vg reduction. We then performed targeted gene expression analyses on genes hypothesized to mediate aging and lifespan: the insulin-like peptides (Ilp1 and 2) and manganese superoxide dismutase (mnSOD). The two honey bee Ilps are the most upstream components in the insulin-signaling pathway, which influences lifespan in Drosophila melanogaster and other organisms, while manganese superoxide dismutase encodes an enzyme with antioxidant functions in animals. We found expression differences in the llps in fat body related to behavior (llp1 and 2) and genetic background (Ilp2), but did not find strain by treatment effects. Expression of mnSOD was also affected by behavior and genetic background. Additionally, we observed a differential response to Vg knockdown in fat body expression of mnSOD, suggesting that antioxidant pathways may partially explain the strain-specific lifespan responses to Vg knockdown.
ContributorsIhle, Kate (Author) / Fondrk, M. Kim (Author) / Page, Robert (Author) / Amdam, Gro (Author) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor)
Created2015-01-01
Description
The brain is considered the crux of identity, yet human behavior may be influenced by bacteria in gut microbiomes. Honeybees can exchange bacteria through their many social behaviors, making their microbiomes, and the effect they have on honeybee behavior, of interest. There is recent evidence suggesting the presence of bacteria existing in human brains, which can be investigated in honeybee brains due to their well-documented structure. The purpose of this study is to establish if lipopolysaccharide—a molecule on bacteria membranes—is present in the honeybee brain and if it colocalizes with vitellogenin—an immune mediator. Additionally, this study also seeks to establish the efficacy of embedding tissue samples in resin and performing immunohistochemistry for vitellogenin and lipopolysaccharide on sections.
ContributorsStrange, Amalie Sofie (Co-author) / Strange, Amalie (Co-author) / Amdam, Gro (Thesis director) / Baluch, Page (Committee member) / School of International Letters and Cultures (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor, Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-05
Description
While non-invasive breast cancer treatments may be considered less costly in the short-term, over the course of a lifetime, a more aggressive treatment can be overall less costly, especially with recurrence cases; however, these more aggressive treatments are not necessarily covered by insurance and are difficult to discuss in the short amount of time in physician consultations. This analysis studied data from 982 women diagnosed with breast cancer over a five-year period to evaluate monetary costs associated with treatment options and incorporated five in-depth interviews to understand experiences and non-monetary costs. Data showed the most expensive option was a unilateral mastectomy with radiation therapy and the least costly option was breast conserving surgery. Interviews determined each woman evaluated the monetary costs with each treatment but most heavily focused on personal values, biases and recommended opinions when deciding on a treatment. The use of prompt sheets before physician appointments and consultations, along with the addition of financial counselor meeting with each patient can improve patient satisfaction and alleviate stress by simplifying a woman's choice in deciding a treatment. In addition, increased insurance coverage to include every treatment chosen by women (rather than on a case-by-case basis), specifically contralateral prophylactic mastectomy and additional screening options, could decrease long term costs \u2014 both monetarily and in quality of life for patients.
ContributorsOsumi, Alana (Author) / LaRosa, Julia (Thesis director) / Sivanantham, Jai (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor)
Created2018-12
Description
Background
The reproductive ground plan hypothesis of social evolution suggests that reproductive controls of a solitary ancestor have been co-opted during social evolution, facilitating the division of labor among social insect workers. Despite substantial empirical support, the generality of this hypothesis is not universally accepted. Thus, we investigated the prediction of particular genes with pleiotropic effects on ovarian traits and social behavior in worker honey bees as a stringent test of the reproductive ground plan hypothesis. We complemented these tests with a comprehensive genome scan for additional quantitative trait loci (QTL) to gain a better understanding of the genetic architecture of the ovary size of honey bee workers, a morphological trait that is significant for understanding social insect caste evolution and general insect biology.
Results
Back-crossing hybrid European x Africanized honey bee queens to the Africanized parent colony generated two study populations with extraordinarily large worker ovaries. Despite the transgressive ovary phenotypes, several previously mapped QTL for social foraging behavior demonstrated ovary size effects, confirming the prediction of pleiotropic genetic effects on reproductive traits and social behavior. One major QTL for ovary size was detected in each backcross, along with several smaller effects and two QTL for ovary asymmetry. One of the main ovary size QTL coincided with a major QTL for ovary activation, explaining 3/4 of the phenotypic variance, although no simple positive correlation between ovary size and activation was observed.
Conclusions
Our results provide strong support for the reproductive ground plan hypothesis of evolution in study populations that are independent of the genetic stocks that originally led to the formulation of this hypothesis. As predicted, worker ovary size is genetically linked to multiple correlated traits of the complex division of labor in worker honey bees, known as the pollen hoarding syndrome. The genetic architecture of worker ovary size presumably consists of a combination of trait-specific loci and general regulators that affect the whole behavioral syndrome and may even play a role in caste determination. Several promising candidate genes in the QTL intervals await further study to clarify their potential role in social insect evolution and the regulation of insect fertility in general.
The reproductive ground plan hypothesis of social evolution suggests that reproductive controls of a solitary ancestor have been co-opted during social evolution, facilitating the division of labor among social insect workers. Despite substantial empirical support, the generality of this hypothesis is not universally accepted. Thus, we investigated the prediction of particular genes with pleiotropic effects on ovarian traits and social behavior in worker honey bees as a stringent test of the reproductive ground plan hypothesis. We complemented these tests with a comprehensive genome scan for additional quantitative trait loci (QTL) to gain a better understanding of the genetic architecture of the ovary size of honey bee workers, a morphological trait that is significant for understanding social insect caste evolution and general insect biology.
Results
Back-crossing hybrid European x Africanized honey bee queens to the Africanized parent colony generated two study populations with extraordinarily large worker ovaries. Despite the transgressive ovary phenotypes, several previously mapped QTL for social foraging behavior demonstrated ovary size effects, confirming the prediction of pleiotropic genetic effects on reproductive traits and social behavior. One major QTL for ovary size was detected in each backcross, along with several smaller effects and two QTL for ovary asymmetry. One of the main ovary size QTL coincided with a major QTL for ovary activation, explaining 3/4 of the phenotypic variance, although no simple positive correlation between ovary size and activation was observed.
Conclusions
Our results provide strong support for the reproductive ground plan hypothesis of evolution in study populations that are independent of the genetic stocks that originally led to the formulation of this hypothesis. As predicted, worker ovary size is genetically linked to multiple correlated traits of the complex division of labor in worker honey bees, known as the pollen hoarding syndrome. The genetic architecture of worker ovary size presumably consists of a combination of trait-specific loci and general regulators that affect the whole behavioral syndrome and may even play a role in caste determination. Several promising candidate genes in the QTL intervals await further study to clarify their potential role in social insect evolution and the regulation of insect fertility in general.
ContributorsGraham, Allie M. (Author) / Munday, Michael D. (Author) / Kaftanoglu, Osman (Author) / Page, Robert (Author) / Amdam, Gro (Author) / Rueppell, Olav (Author) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor)
Created2011-04-13
Description
In 2016, in the United States alone, the cosmetics industry made an estimated 62.46 billion dollars in revenue (Revenue of the Cosmetic Industry in the U.S. 2002-2016 | Forecast). With a consistent increase in sales in the last several years, the industry has reached continued success even during times of hardship, such as the Great Recession of 2008. The use of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR), external campaigns, and thoughtful packaging and ingredients resonates with targeted consumers. This has served as an effective strategy to maintain growth in the industry. Cosmetic companies promote their brand image using these sustainability tactics, but there seems to be a lack of transparency in this unregulated industry. The purpose of this thesis is to determine if the cosmetics industry is a good steward of the sustainability movement. Important terms and concepts relating to the industry will be discussed, then an analysis of sustainability focused cosmetic brands will be provided, which highlights the extent to which these brands engage in activities that promote sustainability. This is followed by an application of findings to a company that could benefit from using such practices. Overall, the analysis of the different brands proved to be shocking and disappointing. This is due to the sheer amount that scored very poorly based on the sustainability criteria developed. The cosmetics industry is too inconsistent and too unregulated to truly act as a good steward for sustainability. Though some companies in the industry succeed, these accomplishments are not consistent across all cosmetic companies. Hence, the cosmetics industry as a good steward for sustainability can only be as strong as its weakest link.
ContributorsMamus, Sydney Wasescha (Author) / Ostrom, Amy (Thesis director) / Kristofferson, Kirk (Committee member) / Department of Marketing (Contributor) / W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
This report was commissioned to provide an analysis and evaluation of consumer perceptions and branding as it relates to the political and social climate in America. To be able to do this, the paper analyzes shifts in the external environment as well as researching case studies and online consumer perception surveys. Overall, this paper aims to examine the distributed survey and attempt to correlate and identify how branding, consumer perceptions, and social and political issues all can work and affect one another. Through the administration of this survey, we were able to formulate a conclusion that points towards the importance of brands actively adhering to changing consumer preferences, ideals, and expectations.
ContributorsClark, Sydney (Co-author) / Loera, Carolina (Co-author) / Montoya, Detra (Thesis director) / Samper, Adriana (Committee member) / W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Department of Marketing (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
The use of generalized linear models in loss reserving is not new; many statistical models have been developed to fit the loss data gathered by various insurance companies. The most popular models belong to what Glen Barnett and Ben Zehnwirth in "Best Estimates for Reserves" call the "extended link ratio family (ELRF)," as they are developed from the chain ladder algorithm used by actuaries to estimate unpaid claims. Although these models are intuitive and easy to implement, they are nevertheless flawed because many of the assumptions behind the models do not hold true when fitted with real-world data. Even more problematically, the ELRF cannot account for environmental changes like inflation which are often observed in the status quo. Barnett and Zehnwirth conclude that a new set of models that contain parameters for not only accident year and development period trends but also payment year trends would be a more accurate predictor of loss development. This research applies the paper's ideas to data gathered by Company XYZ. The data was fitted with an adapted version of Barnett and Zehnwirth's new model in R, and a trend selection algorithm was developed to accompany the regression code. The final forecasts were compared to Company XYZ's booked reserves to evaluate the predictive power of the model.
ContributorsZhang, Zhihan Jennifer (Author) / Milovanovic, Jelena (Thesis director) / Tomita, Melissa (Committee member) / Zicarelli, John (Committee member) / W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
This research aims to look at the lower level collegiate athletics, Intramural sports and club sports, in comparison to Division 1 varsity athletics to see how their sport lives differ and why they are still competing when the reward does not seem as grand as the Varsity athletics. The findings show that the socially ingrained aspect of sports is the reason that most lower level athletes keep competing.
ContributorsHarvey, Abigail (Author) / Jonsson, Hjorleifur (Thesis director) / Jackson, Victoria (Committee member) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor) / W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
This report will provide an analysis of frontier market equity-based investment funds with respect to bivariate correlation analysis, global integration analysis, and US optimized portfolio statistics. My analysis has indicated strong diversification benefits of including frontier market equities in a US portfolio, given its low correlation to US equity concentrated portfolios especially portfolios that would consist of midcap and smallcap stocks. With the drawbacks of the bivariate correlation test, an additional global integration analysis has been included to reaffirm the value frontier markets offer in the form of integration. Integration is a second layer of the diversification analysis. I find that when analyzing frontier markets (FM) against developed markets (DM) there exhibits significantly less integration as compared to emerging markets against developed markets. This analysis goes one step further and quantifies integration of specific frontier market funds against the broader emerging and developed markets. This study finds that iShares MSCI frontier 100 ETF (Ticker: FM) exhibits the least integration amongst Guggenheim Frontier Markets ETF (Ticker: FRN), Templeton Frontier Markets A (Ticker: TFMAX), and Morgan Stanley Frontier Emg (Ticker: MFMIX). Lastly, this analysis covers the inadequacy with using Sharpe ratios and minimum volatility parameters to achieve portfolio optimization under a Monte-Carlo style 1000 portfolio simulation with frontier market funds in a broader US equity portfolio but finds better results when using a US equity and US bond combination portfolio. Overall, this analysis of frontier markets and frontier market funds has shown there still exists significant diversification benefits to US Investors when they engage in FM investments, specifically through diversified FM investment funds.
ContributorsHardy, Gunner Laine (Author) / Pruitt, Seth (Thesis director) / Brada, Josef (Committee member) / W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / Department of Psychology (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05