The 1918 influenza pandemic was a major epidemiological event of the twentieth century resulting in at least twenty million deaths worldwide; however, despite its historical, epidemiological, and biological relevance, it remains poorly understood. Here we examine the relationship between annual pneumonia and influenza death rates in the pre-pandemic (1910–17) and pandemic (1918–20) periods and the scaling of mortality with latitude, longitude and population size, using data from 66 large cities of the United States. The mean pre-pandemic pneumonia death rates were highly associated with pneumonia death rates during the pandemic period (Spearman ρ = 0.64–0.72; P<0.001). By contrast, there was a weak correlation between pre-pandemic and pandemic influenza mortality rates. Pneumonia mortality rates partially explained influenza mortality rates in 1918 (ρ = 0.34, P = 0.005) but not during any other year. Pneumonia death counts followed a linear relationship with population size in all study years, suggesting that pneumonia death rates were homogeneous across the range of population sizes studied. By contrast, influenza death counts followed a power law relationship with a scaling exponent of ∼0.81 (95%CI: 0.71, 0.91) in 1918, suggesting that smaller cities experienced worst outcomes during the pandemic. A linear relationship was observed for all other years. Our study suggests that mortality associated with the 1918–20 influenza pandemic was in part predetermined by pre-pandemic pneumonia death rates in 66 large US cities, perhaps through the impact of the physical and social structure of each city. Smaller cities suffered a disproportionately high per capita influenza mortality burden than larger ones in 1918, while city size did not affect pneumonia mortality rates in the pre-pandemic and pandemic periods.

Background: The role of demographic factors, climatic conditions, school cycles, and connectivity patterns in shaping the spatio-temporal dynamics of pandemic influenza is not clearly understood. Here we analyzed the spatial, age and temporal evolution of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in Chile, a southern hemisphere country covering a long and narrow strip comprising latitudes 17°S to 56°S.

Methods: We analyzed the dissemination patterns of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic across 15 regions of Chile based on daily hospitalizations for severe acute respiratory disease and laboratory confirmed A/H1N1 influenza infection from 01-May to 31-December, 2009. We explored the association between timing of pandemic onset and peak pandemic activity and several geographical and demographic indicators, school vacations, climatic factors, and international passengers. We also estimated the reproduction number (R) based on the growth rate of the exponential pandemic phase by date of symptoms onset, estimated using maximum likelihood methods.

Results: While earlier pandemic onset was associated with larger population size, there was no association with connectivity, demographic, school or climatic factors. In contrast, there was a latitudinal gradient in peak pandemic timing, representing a 16-39-day lag in disease activity from the southern regions relative to the northernmost region (P < 0.001). Geographical differences in latitude of Chilean regions, maximum temperature and specific humidity explained 68.5% of the variability in peak timing (P = 0.01). In addition, there was a decreasing gradient in reproduction number from south to north Chile (P < 0.0001). The regional mean R estimates were 1.6-2.0, 1.3-1.5, and 1.2-1.3 for southern, central and northern regions, respectively, which were not affected by the winter vacation period.

Conclusions: There was a lag in the period of most intense 2009 pandemic influenza activity following a South to North traveling pattern across regions of Chile, significantly associated with geographical differences in minimum temperature and specific humidity. The latitudinal gradient in timing of pandemic activity was accompanied by a gradient in reproduction number (P < 0.0001). Intensified surveillance strategies in colder and drier southern regions could lead to earlier detection of pandemic influenza viruses and improved control outcomes.

Background: Increasing our understanding of the factors affecting the severity of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in different regions of the world could lead to improved clinical practice and mitigation strategies for future influenza pandemics. Even though a number of studies have shed light into the risk factors associated with severe outcomes of 2009 A/H1N1 influenza infections in different populations (e.g., [1-5]), analyses of the determinants of mortality risk spanning multiple pandemic waves and geographic regions are scarce. Between-country differences in the mortality burden of the 2009 pandemic could be linked to differences in influenza case management, underlying population health, or intrinsic differences in disease transmission [6]. Additional studies elucidating the determinants of disease severity globally are warranted to guide prevention efforts in future influenza pandemics.

In Mexico, the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic was characterized by a three-wave pattern occurring in the spring, summer, and fall of 2009 with substantial geographical heterogeneity [7]. A recent study suggests that Mexico experienced high excess mortality burden during the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic relative to other countries [6]. However, an assessment of potential factors that contributed to the relatively high pandemic death toll in Mexico are lacking. Here, we fill this gap by analyzing a large series of laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1 influenza cases, hospitalizations, and deaths monitored by the Mexican Social Security medical system during April 1 through December 31, 2009 in Mexico. In particular, we quantify the association between disease severity, hospital admission delays, and neuraminidase inhibitor use by demographic characteristics, pandemic wave, and geographic regions of Mexico.

Methods: We analyzed a large series of laboratory-confirmed pandemic A/H1N1 influenza cases from a prospective surveillance system maintained by the Mexican Social Security system, April-December 2009. We considered a spectrum of disease severity encompassing outpatient visits, hospitalizations, and deaths, and recorded demographic and geographic information on individual patients. We assessed the impact of neuraminidase inhibitor treatment and hospital admission delay (≤ > 2 days after disease onset) on the risk of death by multivariate logistic regression.

Results: Approximately 50% of all A/H1N1-positive patients received antiviral medication during the Spring and Summer 2009 pandemic waves in Mexico while only 9% of A/H1N1 cases received antiviral medications during the fall wave (P < 0.0001). After adjustment for age, gender, and geography, antiviral treatment significantly reduced the risk of death (OR = 0.52 (95% CI: 0.30, 0.90)) while longer hospital admission delays increased the risk of death by 2.8-fold (95% CI: 2.25, 3.41).

Conclusions: Our findings underscore the potential impact of decreasing admission delays and increasing antiviral use to mitigate the mortality burden of future influenza pandemics.

Background: Highly refined surveillance data on the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic are crucial to quantify the spatial and temporal characteristics of the pandemic. There is little information about the spatial-temporal dynamics of pandemic influenza in South America. Here we provide a quantitative description of the age-specific morbidity pandemic patterns across administrative areas of Peru.

Methods: We used daily cases of influenza-like-illness, tests for A/H1N1 influenza virus infections, and laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1 influenza cases reported to the epidemiological surveillance system of Peru's Ministry of Health from May 1 to December 31, 2009. We analyzed the geographic spread of the pandemic waves and their association with the winter school vacation period, demographic factors, and absolute humidity. We also estimated the reproduction number and quantified the association between the winter school vacation period and the age distribution of cases.

Results: The national pandemic curve revealed a bimodal winter pandemic wave, with the first peak limited to school age children in the Lima metropolitan area, and the second peak more geographically widespread. The reproduction number was estimated at 1.6–2.2 for the Lima metropolitan area and 1.3–1.5 in the rest of Peru. We found a significant association between the timing of the school vacation period and changes in the age distribution of cases, while earlier pandemic onset was correlated with large population size. By contrast there was no association between pandemic dynamics and absolute humidity.

Conclusions: Our results indicate substantial spatial variation in pandemic patterns across Peru, with two pandemic waves of varying timing and impact by age and region. Moreover, the Peru data suggest a hierarchical transmission pattern of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 driven by large population centers. The higher reproduction number of the first pandemic wave could be explained by high contact rates among school-age children, the age group most affected during this early wave.

Serum Amyloid A (SAA) is an acute phase protein complex consisting of several abundant isoforms. The N- terminus of SAA is critical to its function in amyloid formation. SAA is frequently truncated, either missing an arginine or an arginine-serine dipeptide, resulting in isoforms that may influence the capacity to form amyloid. However, the relative abundance of truncated SAA in diabetes and chronic kidney disease is not known.

Methods: Using mass spectrometric immunoassay, the abundance of SAA truncations relative to the native variants was examined in plasma of 91 participants with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease and 69 participants without diabetes.

Results: The ratio of SAA 1.1 (missing N-terminal arginine) to native SAA 1.1 was lower in diabetics compared to non-diabetics (p = 0.004), and in males compared to females (p<0.001). This ratio was negatively correlated with glycated hemoglobin (r = −0.32, p<0.001) and triglyceride concentrations (r = −0.37, p<0.001), and positively correlated with HDL cholesterol concentrations (r = 0.32, p<0.001).

Conclusion: The relative abundance of the N-terminal arginine truncation of SAA1.1 is significantly decreased in diabetes and negatively correlates with measures of glycemic and lipid control.

The oxidative modification of apolipoprotein A-I’s methionine148 (M148) is associated with defective HDL function in vitro. Multiple reaction monitoring (MRM) is a mass spectrometric technique that can be used to quantitate post-translational modifications. In this study, we developed an MRM assay to monitor the abundance ratio of the peptide containing oxidized M148 to the native peptide in ApoA-I. Measurement of the oxidized-to-unoxidized-M148 ratio was reproducible (CV < 5%). The extent of methionine M148 oxidation in the HDL of healthy controls, and type 2 diabetic participants with and without prior cardiovascular events (CVD) were then examined. The results suggest a significant increase in the relative ratio of the peptide containing oxidized M148 to the unmodified peptide in the HDL of participants with diabetes and CVD (p < 0.001), compared to participants without CVD. Monitoring the abundance ratio of the peptides containing oxidized and unoxidized M148 by MRM provides a means of examining the relationship between M148 oxidation and vascular complications in CVD.

Background: The cytokine MIF (Macrophage Migration Inhibitory Factor) has diverse physiological roles and is present at elevated concentrations in numerous disease states. However, its molecular heterogeneity has not been previously investigated in biological samples. Mass Spectrometric Immunoassay (MSIA) may help elucidate MIF post-translational modifications existing in vivo and provide additional clarity regarding its relationship to diverse pathologies.

Results: In this work, we have developed and validated a fully quantitative MSIA assay for MIF, and used it in the discovery and quantification of different proteoforms of MIF in serum samples, including cysteinylated and glycated MIF. The MSIA assay had a linear range of 1.56-50 ng/mL, and exhibited good precision, linearity, and recovery characteristics. The new assay was applied to a small cohort of human serum samples, and benchmarked against an MIF ELISA assay.

Conclusions: The quantitative MIF MSIA assay provides a sensitive, precise and high throughput method to delineate and quantify MIF proteoforms in biological samples.

Background: Cystatin C (CysC) is an endogenous cysteine protease inhibitor that can be used to assess the progression of kidney function. Recent studies demonstrate that CysC is a more specific indicator of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) than creatinine. CysC in plasma exists in multiple proteoforms. The goal of this study was to clarify the association of native CysC, CysC missing N-terminal Serine (CysC des-S), and CysC without three N-terminal residues (CysC des-SSP) with diabetic chronic kidney disease (CKD).

Results: Using mass spectrometric immunoassay, the plasma concentrations of native CysC and the two CysC truncation proteoforms were examined in 111 individuals from three groups: 33 non-diabetic controls, 34 participants with type 2 diabetes (DM) and without CKD and 44 participants with diabetic CKD. Native CysC concentrations were 1.4 fold greater in CKD compared to DM group (p = 0.02) and 1.5 fold greater in CKD compared to the control group (p = 0.001). CysC des-S concentrations were 1.55 fold greater in CKD compared to the DM group (p = 0.002) and 1.9 fold greater in CKD compared to the control group (p = 0.0002). CysC des-SSP concentrations were 1.8 fold greater in CKD compared to the DM group (p = 0.008) and 1.52 fold greater in CKD compared to the control group (p = 0.002). In addition, the concentrations of CysC proteoforms were greater in the setting of albuminuria. The truncated CysC proteoform concentrations were associated with estimated GFR independent of native CysC concentrations.

Conclusion: Our findings demonstrate a greater amount of CysC proteoforms in diabetic CKD. We therefore suggest assessing the role of cystatin C proteoforms in the progression of CKD.

Insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF1) is an important biomarker for the management of growth hormone disorders. Recently there has been rising interest in deploying mass spectrometric (MS) methods of detection for measuring IGF1. However, widespread clinical adoption of any MS-based IGF1 assay will require increased throughput and speed to justify the costs of analyses, and robust industrial platforms that are reproducible across laboratories. Presented here is an MS-based quantitative IGF1 assay with performance rating of >1,000 samples/day, and a capability of quantifying IGF1 point mutations and posttranslational modifications. The throughput of the IGF1 mass spectrometric immunoassay (MSIA) benefited from a simplified sample preparation step, IGF1 immunocapture in a tip format, and high-throughput MALDI-TOF MS analysis. The Limit of Detection and Limit of Quantification of the resulting assay were 1.5 μg/L and 5 μg/L, respectively, with intra- and inter-assay precision CVs of less than 10%, and good linearity and recovery characteristics. The IGF1 MSIA was benchmarked against commercially available IGF1 ELISA via Bland-Altman method comparison test, resulting in a slight positive bias of 16%. The IGF1 MSIA was employed in an optimized parallel workflow utilizing two pipetting robots and MALDI-TOF-MS instruments synced into one-hour phases of sample preparation, extraction and MSIA pipette tip elution, MS data collection, and data processing. Using this workflow, high-throughput IGF1 quantification of 1,054 human samples was achieved in approximately 9 hours. This rate of assaying is a significant improvement over existing MS-based IGF1 assays, and is on par with that of the enzyme-based immunoassays. Furthermore, a mutation was detected in ∼1% of the samples (SNP: rs17884626, creating an A→T substitution at position 67 of the IGF1), demonstrating the capability of IGF1 MSIA to detect point mutations and posttranslational modifications.