Matching Items (48)
Description
A quantitative analysis of a system that has a complex reliability structure always involves considerable challenges. This dissertation mainly addresses uncertainty in- herent in complicated reliability structures that may cause unexpected and undesired results.
The reliability structure uncertainty cannot be handled by the traditional relia- bility analysis tools such as Fault Tree and Reliability Block Diagram due to their deterministic Boolean logic. Therefore, I employ Bayesian network that provides a flexible modeling method for building a multivariate distribution. By representing a system reliability structure as a joint distribution, the uncertainty and correlations existing between system’s elements can effectively be modeled in a probabilistic man- ner. This dissertation focuses on analyzing system reliability for the entire system life cycle, particularly, production stage and early design stages.
In production stage, the research investigates a system that is continuously mon- itored by on-board sensors. With modeling the complex reliability structure by Bayesian network integrated with various stochastic processes, I propose several methodologies that evaluate system reliability on real-time basis and optimize main- tenance schedules.
In early design stages, the research aims to predict system reliability based on the current system design and to improve the design if necessary. The three main challenges in this research are: 1) the lack of field failure data, 2) the complex reliability structure and 3) how to effectively improve the design. To tackle the difficulties, I present several modeling approaches using Bayesian inference and nonparametric Bayesian network where the system is explicitly analyzed through the sensitivity analysis. In addition, this modeling approach is enhanced by incorporating a temporal dimension. However, the nonparametric Bayesian network approach generally accompanies with high computational efforts, especially, when a complex and large system is modeled. To alleviate this computational burden, I also suggest to building a surrogate model with quantile regression.
In summary, this dissertation studies and explores the use of Bayesian network in analyzing complex systems. All proposed methodologies are demonstrated by case studies.
The reliability structure uncertainty cannot be handled by the traditional relia- bility analysis tools such as Fault Tree and Reliability Block Diagram due to their deterministic Boolean logic. Therefore, I employ Bayesian network that provides a flexible modeling method for building a multivariate distribution. By representing a system reliability structure as a joint distribution, the uncertainty and correlations existing between system’s elements can effectively be modeled in a probabilistic man- ner. This dissertation focuses on analyzing system reliability for the entire system life cycle, particularly, production stage and early design stages.
In production stage, the research investigates a system that is continuously mon- itored by on-board sensors. With modeling the complex reliability structure by Bayesian network integrated with various stochastic processes, I propose several methodologies that evaluate system reliability on real-time basis and optimize main- tenance schedules.
In early design stages, the research aims to predict system reliability based on the current system design and to improve the design if necessary. The three main challenges in this research are: 1) the lack of field failure data, 2) the complex reliability structure and 3) how to effectively improve the design. To tackle the difficulties, I present several modeling approaches using Bayesian inference and nonparametric Bayesian network where the system is explicitly analyzed through the sensitivity analysis. In addition, this modeling approach is enhanced by incorporating a temporal dimension. However, the nonparametric Bayesian network approach generally accompanies with high computational efforts, especially, when a complex and large system is modeled. To alleviate this computational burden, I also suggest to building a surrogate model with quantile regression.
In summary, this dissertation studies and explores the use of Bayesian network in analyzing complex systems. All proposed methodologies are demonstrated by case studies.
ContributorsLee, Dongjin (Author) / Pan, Rong (Thesis advisor) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Committee member) / Wu, Teresa (Committee member) / Du, Xiaoping (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
This dissertation proposes a new set of analytical methods for high dimensional physiological sensors. The methodologies developed in this work were motivated by problems in learning science, but also apply to numerous disciplines where high dimensional signals are present. In the education field, more data is now available from traditional sources and there is an important need for analytical methods to translate this data into improved learning. Affecting Computing which is the study of new techniques that develop systems to recognize and model human emotions is integrating different physiological signals such as electroencephalogram (EEG) and electromyogram (EMG) to detect and model emotions which later can be used to improve these learning systems.
The first contribution proposes an event-crossover (ECO) methodology to analyze performance in learning environments. The methodology is relevant to studies where it is desired to evaluate the relationships between sentinel events in a learning environment and a physiological measurement which is provided in real time.
The second contribution introduces analytical methods to study relationships between multi-dimensional physiological signals and sentinel events in a learning environment. The methodology proposed learns physiological patterns in the form of node activations near time of events using different statistical techniques.
The third contribution addresses the challenge of performance prediction from physiological signals. Features from the sensors which could be computed early in the learning activity were developed for input to a machine learning model. The objective is to predict success or failure of the student in the learning environment early in the activity. EEG was used as the physiological signal to train a pattern recognition algorithm in order to derive meta affective states.
The last contribution introduced a methodology to predict a learner's performance using Bayes Belief Networks (BBNs). Posterior probabilities of latent nodes were used as inputs to a predictive model in real-time as evidence was accumulated in the BBN.
The methodology was applied to data streams from a video game and from a Damage Control Simulator which were used to predict and quantify performance. The proposed methods provide cognitive scientists with new tools to analyze subjects in learning environments.
The first contribution proposes an event-crossover (ECO) methodology to analyze performance in learning environments. The methodology is relevant to studies where it is desired to evaluate the relationships between sentinel events in a learning environment and a physiological measurement which is provided in real time.
The second contribution introduces analytical methods to study relationships between multi-dimensional physiological signals and sentinel events in a learning environment. The methodology proposed learns physiological patterns in the form of node activations near time of events using different statistical techniques.
The third contribution addresses the challenge of performance prediction from physiological signals. Features from the sensors which could be computed early in the learning activity were developed for input to a machine learning model. The objective is to predict success or failure of the student in the learning environment early in the activity. EEG was used as the physiological signal to train a pattern recognition algorithm in order to derive meta affective states.
The last contribution introduced a methodology to predict a learner's performance using Bayes Belief Networks (BBNs). Posterior probabilities of latent nodes were used as inputs to a predictive model in real-time as evidence was accumulated in the BBN.
The methodology was applied to data streams from a video game and from a Damage Control Simulator which were used to predict and quantify performance. The proposed methods provide cognitive scientists with new tools to analyze subjects in learning environments.
ContributorsLujan Moreno, Gustavo A. (Author) / Runger, George C. (Thesis advisor) / Atkinson, Robert K (Thesis advisor) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Committee member) / Villalobos, Rene (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
Description
The main objective of this research is to develop reliability assessment methodologies to quantify the effect of various environmental factors on photovoltaic (PV) module performance degradation. The manufacturers of these photovoltaic modules typically provide a warranty level of about 25 years for 20% power degradation from the initial specified power rating. To quantify the reliability of such PV modules, the Accelerated Life Testing (ALT) plays an important role. But there are several obstacles that needs to be tackled to conduct such experiments, since there has not been enough historical field data available. Even if some time-series performance data of maximum output power (Pmax) is available, it may not be useful to develop failure/degradation mode-specific accelerated tests. This is because, to study the specific failure modes, it is essential to use failure mode-specific performance variable (like short circuit current, open circuit voltage or fill factor) that is directly affected by the failure mode, instead of overall power which would be affected by one or more of the performance variables. Hence, to address several of the above-mentioned issues, this research is divided into three phases. The first phase deals with developing models to study climate specific failure modes using failure mode specific parameters instead of power degradation. The limited field data collected after a long time (say 18-21 years), is utilized to model the degradation rate and the developed model is then calibrated to account for several unknown environmental effects using the available qualification testing data. The second phase discusses the cumulative damage modeling method to quantify the effects of various environmental variables on the overall power production of the photovoltaic module. Mainly, this cumulative degradation modeling approach is used to model the power degradation path and quantify the effects of high frequency multiple environmental input data (like temperature, humidity measured every minute or hour) with very sparse response data (power measurements taken quarterly or annually). The third phase deals with optimal planning and inference framework using Iterative-Accelerated Life Testing (I-ALT) methodology. All the proposed methodologies are demonstrated and validated using appropriate case studies.
ContributorsBala Subramaniyan, Arun (Author) / Pan, Rong (Thesis advisor) / Tamizhmani, Govindasamy (Thesis advisor) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Committee member) / Wu, Teresa (Committee member) / Kuitche, Joseph (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2020
Description
In conventional supervised learning tasks, information retrieval from extensive collections of data happens automatically at low cost, whereas in many real-world problems obtaining labeled data can be hard, time-consuming, and expensive. Consider healthcare systems, for example, where unlabeled medical images are abundant while labeling requires a considerable amount of knowledge from experienced physicians. Active learning addresses this challenge with an iterative process to select instances from the unlabeled data to annotate and improve the supervised learner. At each step, the query of examples to be labeled can be considered as a dilemma between exploitation of the supervised learner's current knowledge and exploration of the unlabeled input features.
Motivated by the need for efficient active learning strategies, this dissertation proposes new algorithms for batch-mode, pool-based active learning. The research considers the following questions: how can unsupervised knowledge of the input features (exploration) improve learning when incorporated with supervised learning (exploitation)? How to characterize exploration in active learning when data is high-dimensional? Finally, how to adaptively make a balance between exploration and exploitation?
The first contribution proposes a new active learning algorithm, Cluster-based Stochastic Query-by-Forest (CSQBF), which provides a batch-mode strategy that accelerates learning with added value from exploration and improved exploitation scores. CSQBF balances exploration and exploitation using a probabilistic scoring criterion based on classification probabilities from a tree-based ensemble model within each data cluster.
The second contribution introduces two more query strategies, Double Margin Active Learning (DMAL) and Cluster Agnostic Active Learning (CAAL), that combine consistent exploration and exploitation modules into a coherent and unified measure for label query. Instead of assuming a fixed clustering structure, CAAL and DMAL adopt a soft-clustering strategy which provides a new approach to formalize exploration in active learning.
The third contribution addresses the challenge of dynamically making a balance between exploration and exploitation criteria throughout the active learning process. Two adaptive algorithms are proposed based on feedback-driven bandit optimization frameworks that elegantly handle this issue by learning the relationship between exploration-exploitation trade-off and an active learner's performance.
Motivated by the need for efficient active learning strategies, this dissertation proposes new algorithms for batch-mode, pool-based active learning. The research considers the following questions: how can unsupervised knowledge of the input features (exploration) improve learning when incorporated with supervised learning (exploitation)? How to characterize exploration in active learning when data is high-dimensional? Finally, how to adaptively make a balance between exploration and exploitation?
The first contribution proposes a new active learning algorithm, Cluster-based Stochastic Query-by-Forest (CSQBF), which provides a batch-mode strategy that accelerates learning with added value from exploration and improved exploitation scores. CSQBF balances exploration and exploitation using a probabilistic scoring criterion based on classification probabilities from a tree-based ensemble model within each data cluster.
The second contribution introduces two more query strategies, Double Margin Active Learning (DMAL) and Cluster Agnostic Active Learning (CAAL), that combine consistent exploration and exploitation modules into a coherent and unified measure for label query. Instead of assuming a fixed clustering structure, CAAL and DMAL adopt a soft-clustering strategy which provides a new approach to formalize exploration in active learning.
The third contribution addresses the challenge of dynamically making a balance between exploration and exploitation criteria throughout the active learning process. Two adaptive algorithms are proposed based on feedback-driven bandit optimization frameworks that elegantly handle this issue by learning the relationship between exploration-exploitation trade-off and an active learner's performance.
ContributorsShams, Ghazal (Author) / Runger, George C. (Thesis advisor) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Committee member) / Escobedo, Adolfo (Committee member) / Pedrielli, Giulia (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2020
Description
In this dissertation two research questions in the field of applied experimental design were explored. First, methods for augmenting the three-level screening designs called Definitive Screening Designs (DSDs) were investigated. Second, schemes for strategic subdata selection for nonparametric predictive modeling with big data were developed.
Under sparsity, the structure of DSDs can allow for the screening and optimization of a system in one step, but in non-sparse situations estimation of second-order models requires augmentation of the DSD. In this work, augmentation strategies for DSDs were considered, given the assumption that the correct form of the model for the response of interest is quadratic. Series of augmented designs were constructed and explored, and power calculations, model-robustness criteria, model-discrimination criteria, and simulation study results were used to identify the number of augmented runs necessary for (1) effectively identifying active model effects, and (2) precisely predicting a response of interest. When the goal is identification of active effects, it is shown that supersaturated designs are sufficient; when the goal is prediction, it is shown that little is gained by augmenting beyond the design that is saturated for the full quadratic model. Surprisingly, augmentation strategies based on the I-optimality criterion do not lead to better predictions than strategies based on the D-optimality criterion.
Computational limitations can render standard statistical methods infeasible in the face of massive datasets, necessitating subsampling strategies. In the big data context, the primary objective is often prediction but the correct form of the model for the response of interest is likely unknown. Here, two new methods of subdata selection were proposed. The first is based on clustering, the second is based on space-filling designs, and both are free from model assumptions. The performance of the proposed methods was explored visually via low-dimensional simulated examples; via real data applications; and via large simulation studies. In all cases the proposed methods were compared to existing, widely used subdata selection methods. The conditions under which the proposed methods provide advantages over standard subdata selection strategies were identified.
Under sparsity, the structure of DSDs can allow for the screening and optimization of a system in one step, but in non-sparse situations estimation of second-order models requires augmentation of the DSD. In this work, augmentation strategies for DSDs were considered, given the assumption that the correct form of the model for the response of interest is quadratic. Series of augmented designs were constructed and explored, and power calculations, model-robustness criteria, model-discrimination criteria, and simulation study results were used to identify the number of augmented runs necessary for (1) effectively identifying active model effects, and (2) precisely predicting a response of interest. When the goal is identification of active effects, it is shown that supersaturated designs are sufficient; when the goal is prediction, it is shown that little is gained by augmenting beyond the design that is saturated for the full quadratic model. Surprisingly, augmentation strategies based on the I-optimality criterion do not lead to better predictions than strategies based on the D-optimality criterion.
Computational limitations can render standard statistical methods infeasible in the face of massive datasets, necessitating subsampling strategies. In the big data context, the primary objective is often prediction but the correct form of the model for the response of interest is likely unknown. Here, two new methods of subdata selection were proposed. The first is based on clustering, the second is based on space-filling designs, and both are free from model assumptions. The performance of the proposed methods was explored visually via low-dimensional simulated examples; via real data applications; and via large simulation studies. In all cases the proposed methods were compared to existing, widely used subdata selection methods. The conditions under which the proposed methods provide advantages over standard subdata selection strategies were identified.
ContributorsNachtsheim, Abigael (Author) / Stufken, John (Thesis advisor) / Fricks, John (Committee member) / Kao, Ming-Hung (Committee member) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Committee member) / Reiser, Mark R. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2020
Description
Degradation process, as a course of progressive deterioration, commonly exists on many engineering systems. Since most failure mechanisms of these systems can be traced to the underlying degradation process, utilizing degradation data for reliability prediction is much needed. In industries, accelerated degradation tests (ADTs) are widely used to obtain timely reliability information of the system under test. This dissertation develops methodologies for the ADT data modeling and analysis.
In the first part of this dissertation, ADT is introduced along with three major challenges in the ADT data analysis – modeling framework, inference method, and the need of analyzing multi-dimensional processes. To overcome these challenges, in the second part, a hierarchical approach, that leads to a nonlinear mixed-effects regression model, to modeling a univariate degradation process is developed. With this modeling framework, the issues of ignoring uncertainties in both data analysis and lifetime prediction, as presented by an International Standard Organization (ISO) standard, are resolved. In the third part, an approach to modeling a bivariate degradation process is addressed. It is developed using the copula theory that brings the benefits of both model flexibility and inference convenience. This approach is provided with an efficient Bayesian method for reliability evaluation. In the last part, an extension to a multivariate modeling framework is developed. Three fundamental copula classes are applied to model the complex dependence structure among correlated degradation processes. The advantages of the proposed modeling framework and the effect of ignoring tail dependence are demonstrated through simulation studies. The applications of the copula-based multivariate degradation models on both system reliability evaluation and remaining useful life prediction are provided.
In summary, this dissertation studies and explores the use of statistical methods in analyzing ADT data. All proposed methodologies are demonstrated by case studies.
In the first part of this dissertation, ADT is introduced along with three major challenges in the ADT data analysis – modeling framework, inference method, and the need of analyzing multi-dimensional processes. To overcome these challenges, in the second part, a hierarchical approach, that leads to a nonlinear mixed-effects regression model, to modeling a univariate degradation process is developed. With this modeling framework, the issues of ignoring uncertainties in both data analysis and lifetime prediction, as presented by an International Standard Organization (ISO) standard, are resolved. In the third part, an approach to modeling a bivariate degradation process is addressed. It is developed using the copula theory that brings the benefits of both model flexibility and inference convenience. This approach is provided with an efficient Bayesian method for reliability evaluation. In the last part, an extension to a multivariate modeling framework is developed. Three fundamental copula classes are applied to model the complex dependence structure among correlated degradation processes. The advantages of the proposed modeling framework and the effect of ignoring tail dependence are demonstrated through simulation studies. The applications of the copula-based multivariate degradation models on both system reliability evaluation and remaining useful life prediction are provided.
In summary, this dissertation studies and explores the use of statistical methods in analyzing ADT data. All proposed methodologies are demonstrated by case studies.
ContributorsFANG, GUANQI (Author) / Pan, Rong (Thesis advisor) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Committee member) / Ju, Feng (Committee member) / Hong, Yili (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2020
Description
Nonregular designs are a preferable alternative to regular resolution four designs because they avoid confounding two-factor interactions. As a result nonregular designs can estimate and identify a few active two-factor interactions. However, due to the sometimes complex alias structure of nonregular designs, standard screening strategies can fail to identify all active effects. In this research, two-level nonregular screening designs with orthogonal main effects will be discussed. By utilizing knowledge of the alias structure, a design based model selection process for analyzing nonregular designs is proposed.
The Aliased Informed Model Selection (AIMS) strategy is a design specific approach that is compared to three generic model selection methods; stepwise regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), and the Dantzig selector. The AIMS approach substantially increases the power to detect active main effects and two-factor interactions versus the aforementioned generic methodologies. This research identifies design specific model spaces; sets of models with strong heredity, all estimable, and exhibit no model confounding. These spaces are then used in the AIMS method along with design specific aliasing rules for model selection decisions. Model spaces and alias rules are identified for three designs; 16-run no-confounding 6, 7, and 8-factor designs. The designs are demonstrated with several examples as well as simulations to show the AIMS superiority in model selection.
A final piece of the research provides a method for augmenting no-confounding designs based on a model spaces and maximum average D-efficiency. Several augmented designs are provided for different situations. A final simulation with the augmented designs shows strong results for augmenting four additional runs if time and resources permit.
The Aliased Informed Model Selection (AIMS) strategy is a design specific approach that is compared to three generic model selection methods; stepwise regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), and the Dantzig selector. The AIMS approach substantially increases the power to detect active main effects and two-factor interactions versus the aforementioned generic methodologies. This research identifies design specific model spaces; sets of models with strong heredity, all estimable, and exhibit no model confounding. These spaces are then used in the AIMS method along with design specific aliasing rules for model selection decisions. Model spaces and alias rules are identified for three designs; 16-run no-confounding 6, 7, and 8-factor designs. The designs are demonstrated with several examples as well as simulations to show the AIMS superiority in model selection.
A final piece of the research provides a method for augmenting no-confounding designs based on a model spaces and maximum average D-efficiency. Several augmented designs are provided for different situations. A final simulation with the augmented designs shows strong results for augmenting four additional runs if time and resources permit.
ContributorsMetcalfe, Carly E (Author) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Thesis advisor) / Jones, Bradley (Committee member) / Pan, Rong (Committee member) / Pedrielli, Giulia (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2020
Description
Feature learning and the discovery of nonlinear variation patterns in high-dimensional data is an important task in many problem domains, such as imaging, streaming data from sensors, and manufacturing. This dissertation presents several methods for learning and visualizing nonlinear variation in high-dimensional data. First, an automated method for discovering nonlinear variation patterns using deep learning autoencoders is proposed. The approach provides a functional mapping from a low-dimensional representation to the original spatially-dense data that is both interpretable and efficient with respect to preserving information. Experimental results indicate that deep learning autoencoders outperform manifold learning and principal component analysis in reproducing the original data from the learned variation sources.
A key issue in using autoencoders for nonlinear variation pattern discovery is to encourage the learning of solutions where each feature represents a unique variation source, which we define as distinct features. This problem of learning distinct features is also referred to as disentangling factors of variation in the representation learning literature. The remainder of this dissertation highlights and provides solutions for this important problem.
An alternating autoencoder training method is presented and a new measure motivated by orthogonal loadings in linear models is proposed to quantify feature distinctness in the nonlinear models. Simulated point cloud data and handwritten digit images illustrate that standard training methods for autoencoders consistently mix the true variation sources in the learned low-dimensional representation, whereas the alternating method produces solutions with more distinct patterns.
Finally, a new regularization method for learning distinct nonlinear features using autoencoders is proposed. Motivated in-part by the properties of linear solutions, a series of learning constraints are implemented via regularization penalties during stochastic gradient descent training. These include the orthogonality of tangent vectors to the manifold, the correlation between learned features, and the distributions of the learned features. This regularized learning approach yields low-dimensional representations which can be better interpreted and used to identify the true sources of variation impacting a high-dimensional feature space. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of this method for nonlinear variation pattern discovery on both simulated and real data sets.
A key issue in using autoencoders for nonlinear variation pattern discovery is to encourage the learning of solutions where each feature represents a unique variation source, which we define as distinct features. This problem of learning distinct features is also referred to as disentangling factors of variation in the representation learning literature. The remainder of this dissertation highlights and provides solutions for this important problem.
An alternating autoencoder training method is presented and a new measure motivated by orthogonal loadings in linear models is proposed to quantify feature distinctness in the nonlinear models. Simulated point cloud data and handwritten digit images illustrate that standard training methods for autoencoders consistently mix the true variation sources in the learned low-dimensional representation, whereas the alternating method produces solutions with more distinct patterns.
Finally, a new regularization method for learning distinct nonlinear features using autoencoders is proposed. Motivated in-part by the properties of linear solutions, a series of learning constraints are implemented via regularization penalties during stochastic gradient descent training. These include the orthogonality of tangent vectors to the manifold, the correlation between learned features, and the distributions of the learned features. This regularized learning approach yields low-dimensional representations which can be better interpreted and used to identify the true sources of variation impacting a high-dimensional feature space. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of this method for nonlinear variation pattern discovery on both simulated and real data sets.
ContributorsHoward, Phillip (Author) / Runger, George C. (Thesis advisor) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Committee member) / Mirchandani, Pitu (Committee member) / Apley, Daniel (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016