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Parallel Monte Carlo applications require the pseudorandom numbers used on each processor to be independent in a probabilistic sense. The TestU01 software package is the standard testing suite for detecting stream dependence and other properties that make certain pseudorandom generators ineffective in parallel (as well as serial) settings. TestU01 employs two basic schemes for testing parallel generated streams. The first applies serial tests to the individual streams and then tests the resulting P-values for uniformity. The second turns all the parallel generated streams into one long vector and then applies serial tests to the resulting concatenated stream. Various forms of stream dependence can be missed by each approach because neither one fully addresses the multivariate nature of the accumulated data when generators are run in parallel. This dissertation identifies these potential faults in the parallel testing methodologies of TestU01 and investigates two different methods to better detect inter-stream dependencies: correlation motivated multivariate tests and vector time series based tests. These methods have been implemented in an extension to TestU01 built in C++ and the unique aspects of this extension are discussed. A variety of different generation scenarios are then examined using the TestU01 suite in concert with the extension. This enhanced software package is found to better detect certain forms of inter-stream dependencies than the original TestU01 suites of tests.
ContributorsIsmay, Chester (Author) / Eubank, Randall (Thesis advisor) / Young, Dennis (Committee member) / Kao, Ming-Hung (Committee member) / Lanchier, Nicolas (Committee member) / Reiser, Mark R. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Rabies disease remains enzootic among raccoons, skunks, foxes and bats in the United States. It is of primary concern for public-health agencies to control spatial spread of rabies in wildlife and its potential spillover infection of domestic animals and humans. Rabies is invariably fatal in wildlife if untreated, with a non-negligible incubation period. Understanding how this latency affects spatial spread of rabies in wildlife is the concern of chapter 2 and 3. Chapter 1 deals with the background of mathematical models for rabies and lists main objectives. In chapter 2, a reaction-diffusion susceptible-exposed-infected (SEI) model and a delayed diffusive susceptible-infected (SI) model are constructed to describe the same epidemic process -- rabies spread in foxes. For the delayed diffusive model a non-local infection term with delay is resulted from modeling the dispersal during incubation stage. Comparison is made regarding minimum traveling wave speeds of the two models, which are verified using numerical experiments. In chapter 3, starting with two Kermack and McKendrick's models where infectivity, death rate and diffusion rate of infected individuals can depend on the age of infection, the asymptotic speed of spread $c^\ast$ for the cumulated force of infection can be analyzed. For the special case of fixed incubation period, the asymptotic speed of spread is governed by the same integral equation for both models. Although explicit solutions for $c^\ast$ are difficult to obtain, assuming that diffusion coefficient of incubating animals is small, $c^\ast$ can be estimated in terms of model parameter values. Chapter 4 considers the implementation of realistic landscape in simulation of rabies spread in skunks and bats in northeast Texas. The Finite Element Method (FEM) is adopted because the irregular shapes of realistic landscape naturally lead to unstructured grids in the spatial domain. This implementation leads to a more accurate description of skunk rabies cases distributions.
ContributorsLiu, Hao (Author) / Kuang, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Jackiewicz, Zdzislaw (Committee member) / Lanchier, Nicolas (Committee member) / Smith, Hal (Committee member) / Thieme, Horst (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
By the von Neumann min-max theorem, a two person zero sum game with finitely many pure strategies has a unique value for each player (summing to zero) and each player has a non-empty set of optimal mixed strategies. If the payoffs are independent, identically distributed (iid) uniform (0,1) random variables, then with probability one, both players have unique optimal mixed strategies utilizing the same number of pure strategies with positive probability (Jonasson 2004). The pure strategies with positive probability in the unique optimal mixed strategies are called saddle squares. In 1957, Goldman evaluated the probability of a saddle point (a 1 by 1 saddle square), which was rediscovered by many authors including Thorp (1979). Thorp gave two proofs of the probability of a saddle point, one using combinatorics and one using a beta integral. In 1965, Falk and Thrall investigated the integrals required for the probabilities of a 2 by 2 saddle square for 2 × n and m × 2 games with iid uniform (0,1) payoffs, but they were not able to evaluate the integrals. This dissertation generalizes Thorp's beta integral proof of Goldman's probability of a saddle point, establishing an integral formula for the probability that a m × n game with iid uniform (0,1) payoffs has a k by k saddle square (k ≤ m,n). Additionally, the probabilities of a 2 by 2 and a 3 by 3 saddle square for a 3 × 3 game with iid uniform(0,1) payoffs are found. For these, the 14 integrals observed by Falk and Thrall are dissected into 38 disjoint domains, and the integrals are evaluated using the basic properties of the dilogarithm function. The final results for the probabilities of a 2 by 2 and a 3 by 3 saddle square in a 3 × 3 game are linear combinations of 1, π2, and ln(2) with rational coefficients.
ContributorsManley, Michael (Author) / Kadell, Kevin W. J. (Thesis advisor) / Kao, Ming-Hung (Committee member) / Lanchier, Nicolas (Committee member) / Lohr, Sharon (Committee member) / Reiser, Mark R. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
The southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) is listed as an endangered species throughout its range in the southwestern United States. Little is known about its sub-population spatial structure and how this impacts its population viability. In conjunction with being listed as endangered, a recovery plan was produced by the US Fish and Wildlife Service, with recovery units (sub-populations) roughly based on major river drainages. In the interest of examining this configuration of sub-populations and their impact on the measured population viability, I applied a multivariate auto-regressive state-space model to a spatially extensive time series of abundance data for the southwestern willow flycatcher over the period spanning 1995-2010 estimating critical growth parameters, correlation in environmental stochasticity or "synchronicity" between sub-populations (recovery units) and extinction risk of the sub-populations and the whole. The model estimates two parameters, the mean and variance of annual growth rate. Of the models I tested, I found the strongest support for a population model in which three of the recovery units were grouped (the Lower Colorado, Gila Basin, and Rio Grande recovery units) while keeping all others separate. This configuration has 6.6 times more support for the observed data than a configuration assigning each recovery unit to a separate sub-population, which is how they are circumscribed in the recovery plan. Given the best model, the mean growth rate is -0.0234 (CI95 -0.0939, 0.0412) with a variance of 0.0597 (CI95 0.0115, 0.1134). This growth rate is not significantly different from zero and this is reflected in the low potential for quasi-extinction. The cumulative probability of the population experiencing at least an 80% decline from current levels within 15 years for some sub-populations were much higher (range: 0.129-0.396 for an 80% decline). These results suggest that the rangewide population has a low risk of extinction in the next 15 years and that the formal recovery units specified by the original recovery plan do not correspond to proper sub-population units as defined by population synchrony.
ContributorsDockens, Patrick E. T. (Author) / Sabo, John (Thesis advisor) / Stromberg, Juliet (Committee member) / Fenichel, Eli (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
Land management practices such as domestic animal grazing can alter plant communities via changes in soil structure and chemistry, species composition, and plant nutrient content. These changes can affect the abundance and quality of plants consumed by insect herbivores with consequent changes in population dynamics. These population changes can translate to massive crop damage and pest control costs. My dissertation focused on Oedaleus asiaticus, a dominant Asian locust, and had three main objectives. First, I identified morphological, physiological, and behavioral characteristics of the migratory ("brown") and non-migratory ("green") phenotypes. I found that brown morphs had longer wings, larger thoraxes and higher metabolic rates compared to green morphs, suggesting that developmental plasticity allows greater migratory capacity in the brown morph of this locust. Second, I tested the hypothesis of a causal link between livestock overgrazing and an increase in migratory swarms of O. asiaticus. Current paradigms generally assume that increased plant nitrogen (N) should enhance herbivore performance by relieving protein-limitation, increasing herbivorous insect populations. I showed, in contrast to this scenario, that host plant N-enrichment and high protein artificial diets decreased the size and viability of O. asiaticus. Plant N content was lowest and locust abundance highest in heavily livestock-grazed fields where soils were N-depleted, likely due to enhanced erosion and leaching. These results suggest that heavy livestock grazing promotes outbreaks of this locust by reducing plant protein content. Third, I tested for the influence of dietary imbalance, in conjunction with high population density, on migratory plasticity. While high population density has clearly been shown to induce the migratory morph in several locusts, the effect of diet has been unclear. I found that locusts reared at high population density and fed unfertilized plants (i.e. high quality plants for O. asiaticus) had the greatest migratory capacity, and maintained a high percent of brown locusts. These results did not support the hypothesis that poor-quality resources increased expression of migratory phenotypes. This highlights a need to develop new theoretical frameworks for predicting how environmental factors will regulate migratory plasticity in locusts and perhaps other insects.
ContributorsCease, Arianne (Author) / Harrison, Jon (Thesis advisor) / Elser, James (Thesis advisor) / DeNardo, Dale (Committee member) / Quinlan, Michael (Committee member) / Sabo, John (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
This dissertation examines six different models in the field of econophysics using interacting particle systems as the basis of exploration. In each model examined, the underlying structure is a graph G = (V , E ), where each x ∈ V represents an individual who is characterized by the number of coins in her possession at time t. At each time step t, an edge (x, y) ∈ E is chosen at random, resulting in an exchange of coins between individuals x and y according to the rules of the model. Random variables ξt, and ξt(x) keep track of the current configuration and number of coins individual x has at time t respectively. Of particular interest is the distribution of coins in the long run. Considered first are the uniform reshuffling model, immediate exchange model and model with saving propensity. For each of these models, the number of coins an individual can have is nonnegative and the total number of coins in the system is conserved for all time. It is shown here that the distribution of coins converges to the exponential distribution, gamma distribution and a pseudo gamma distribution respectively. The next two models introduce debt, however, the total number of coins again remains fixed. It is shown here that when there is an individual debt limit, the number of coins per individual converges to a shifted exponential distribution. Alternatively, when a collective debt limit is imposed on the whole population, a heuristic argument is given supporting the conjecture that the distribution of coins converges to an asymmetric Laplace distribution. The final model considered focuses on the effect of cooperation on a population. Unlike the previous models discussed here, the total number of coins in the system at any given time is not bounded and the process evolves in continuous time rather than in discrete time. For this model, death of an individual will occur if they run out of coins. It is shown here that the survival probability for the population is impacted by the level of cooperation along with how productive the population is as whole.
ContributorsReed, Stephanie Jo (Author) / Lanchier, Nicolas (Thesis advisor) / Smith, Hal (Committee member) / Gumel, Abba (Committee member) / Motsch, Sebastien (Committee member) / Camacho, Erika (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
Description
Environmental changes are occurring at an unprecedented rate, and these changes will undoubtedly lead to alterations in resource availability for many organisms. To effectively predict the implications of such changes, it is critical to better understand how organisms have adapted to coping with seasonally limited resources. The vast majority of previous work has focused on energy balance as the driver of changes in organismal physiology. While energy is clearly a vital currency, other resources can also be limited and impact physiological functions. Water is essential for life as it is the main constituent of cells, tissues, and organs. Yet, water has received little consideration for its role as a currency that impacts physiological functions. Given the importance of water to most major physiological systems, I investigated how water limitations interact with immune function, metabolism, and reproductive investment, an almost entirely unexplored area. Using multiple species and life stages, I demonstrated that dehydrated animals typically have enhanced innate immunity, regardless of whether the dehydration is a result of seasonal water constraints, water deprivation in the lab, or high physiological demand for water. My work contributed greatly to the understanding of immune function dynamics and lays a foundation for the study of hydration immunology as a component of the burgeoning field of ecoimmunology. While a large portion of my dissertation focused on the interaction between water balance and immune function, there are many other physiological processes that may be impacted by water restrictions. Accordingly, I recently expanded the understanding of how reproductive females can alter metabolic substrates to reallocate internal water during times of water scarcity, an important development in our knowledge of reproductive investments. Overall, by thoroughly evaluating implications and responses to water limitations, my dissertation, when combined previous acquired knowledge on food limitation, will enable scientists to better predict the impacts of future climate change, where, in many regions, rainfall events are forecasted to be less reliable, resulting in more frequent drought.
ContributorsBrusch, George, IV (Author) / DeNardo, Dale F (Thesis advisor) / Blattman, Joseph (Committee member) / French, Susannah (Committee member) / Sabo, John (Committee member) / Taylor, Emily (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
Description
The inherent risk in testing drugs has been hotly debated since the government first started regulating the drug industry in the early 1900s. Who can assume the risks associated with trying new pharmaceuticals is unclear when looked at through society's lens. In the mid twentieth century, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) published several guidance documents encouraging researchers to exclude women from early clinical drug research. The motivation to publish those documents and the subsequent guidance documents in which the FDA and other regulatory offices established their standpoints on women in drug research may have been connected to current events at the time. The problem of whether women should be involved in drug research is a question of who can assume risk and who is responsible for disseminating what specific kinds of information. The problem tends to be framed as one that juxtaposes the health of women and fetuses and sets their health as in opposition. That opposition, coupled with the inherent uncertainty in testing drugs, provides for a complex set of issues surrounding consent and access to information.
ContributorsMeek, Caroline Jane (Author) / Maienschein, Jane (Thesis director) / Brian, Jennifer (Committee member) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / Sanford School of Social and Family Dynamics (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
Social-emotional learning (SEL) methods are beginning to receive global attention in primary school education, yet the dominant emphasis on implementing these curricula is in high-income, urbanized areas. Consequently, the unique features of developing and integrating such methods in middle- or low-income rural areas are unclear. Past studies suggest that students exposed to SEL programs show an increase in academic performance, improved ability to cope with stress, and better attitudes about themselves, others, and school, but these curricula are designed with an urban focus. The purpose of this study was to conduct a needs-based analysis to investigate components specific to a SEL curriculum contextualized to rural primary schools. A promising organization committed to rural educational development is Barefoot College, located in Tilonia, Rajasthan, India. In partnership with Barefoot, we designed an ethnographic study to identify and describe what teachers and school leaders consider the highest needs related to their students' social and emotional education. To do so, we interviewed 14 teachers and school leaders individually or in a focus group to explore their present understanding of “social-emotional learning” and the perception of their students’ social and emotional intelligence. Analysis of this data uncovered common themes among classroom behaviors and prevalent opportunities to address social and emotional well-being among students. These themes translated into the three overarching topics and eight sub-topics explored throughout the curriculum, and these opportunities guided the creation of the 21 modules within it. Through a design-based research methodology, we developed a 40-hour curriculum by implementing its various modules within seven Barefoot classrooms alongside continuous reiteration based on teacher feedback and participant observation. Through this process, we found that student engagement increased during contextualized SEL lessons as opposed to traditional methods. In addition, we found that teachers and students preferred and performed better with an activities-based approach. These findings suggest that rural educators must employ particular teaching strategies when addressing SEL, including localized content and an experiential-learning approach. Teachers reported that as their approach to SEL shifted, they began to unlock the potential to build self-aware, globally-minded students. This study concludes that social and emotional education cannot be treated in a generalized manner, as curriculum development is central to the teaching-learning process.
ContributorsBucker, Delaney Sue (Author) / Carrese, Susan (Thesis director) / Barab, Sasha (Committee member) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor, Contributor) / School of Civic & Economic Thought and Leadership (Contributor) / School of International Letters and Cultures (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-05
Description
As of 2019, 30 US states have adopted abortion-specific informed consent laws that require state health departments to develop and disseminate written informational materials to patients seeking an abortion. Abortion is the only medical procedure for which states dictate the content of informed consent counseling. State abortion counseling materials have been criticized for containing inaccurate and misleading information, but overall, informed consent laws for abortion do not often receive national attention. The objective of this project was to determine the importance of informed consent laws to achieving the larger goal of dismantling the right to abortion. I found that informed consent counseling materials in most states contain a full timeline of fetal development, along with information about the risks of abortion, the risks of childbirth, and alternatives to abortion. In addition, informed consent laws for abortion are based on model legislation called the “Women’s Right to Know Act” developed by Americans United for Life (AUL). AUL calls itself the legal architect of the pro-life movement and works to pass laws at the state level that incrementally restrict abortion access so that it gradually becomes more difficult to exercise the right to abortion established by Roe v. Wade. The “Women’s Right to Know Act” is part of a larger package of model legislation called the “Women’s Protection Project,” a cluster of laws that place restrictions on abortion providers, purportedly to protect women, but actually to decrease abortion access. “Women’s Right to Know” counseling laws do not directly deny access to abortion, but they do reinforce key ideas important to the anti-abortion movement, like the concept of fetal personhood, distrust in medical professionals, the belief that pregnant people cannot be fully autonomous individuals, and the belief that abortion is not an ordinary medical procedure and requires special government oversight. “Women’s Right to Know” laws use the language of informed consent and the purported goal of protecting women to legitimize those ideas, and in doing so, they significantly undermine the right to abortion. The threat to abortion rights posed by laws like the “Women’s Right to Know” laws indicates the need to reevaluate and strengthen our ethical defense of the right to abortion.
ContributorsVenkatraman, Richa (Author) / Maienschein, Jane (Thesis director) / Brian, Jennifer (Thesis director) / Abboud, Carolina (Committee member) / Historical, Philosophical & Religious Studies (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor, Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-05