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Accumulating evidence implicates exposure to adverse childhood experiences in the development of hypocortisolism in the long-term, and researchers are increasingly examining individual-level mechanisms that may underlie, exacerbate or attenuate this relation among at-risk populations. The current study takes a developmentally and theoretically informed approach to examining episodic childhood stressors, inherent and voluntary self-regulation, and physiological reactivity among a longitudinal sample of youth who experienced parental divorce. Participants were drawn from a larger randomized controlled trial of a preventive intervention for children of divorce between the ages of 9 and 12. The current sample included 159 young adults (mean age = 25.5 years; 53% male; 94% Caucasian) who participated in six waves of data collection, including a 15-year follow-up study. Participants reported on exposure to negative life events (four times over a 9-month period) during childhood, and mothers rated child temperament. Six years later, youth reported on the use of active and avoidant coping strategies, and 15 years later, they participated in a standardized psychosocial stress task and provided salivary cortisol samples prior to and following the task. Path analyses within a structural equation framework revealed that a multiple mediation model best fit the data. It was found that children with better mother-rated self-regulation (i.e. low impulsivity, low negative emotionality, and high attentional focus) exhibited lower total cortisol output 15 years later. In addition, greater self-regulation in childhood predicted greater use of active coping in adolescence, whereas a greater number of negative life events predicted increased use of avoidant coping in adolescence. Finally, a greater number of negative events in childhood predicted marginally lower total cortisol output, and higher levels of active coping in adolescence were associated with greater total cortisol output in young adulthood. Findings suggest that children of divorce who exhibit better self-regulation evidence lower cortisol output during a standardized psychosocial stress task relative to those who have higher impulsivity, lower attentional focus, and/or higher negative emotionality. The conceptual significance of the current findings, including the lack of evidence for hypothesized relations, methodological issues that arose, and issues in need of future research are discussed.
ContributorsHagan, Melissa (Author) / Luecken, Linda (Thesis advisor) / MacKinnon, David (Committee member) / Wolchik, Sharlene (Committee member) / Doane, Leah (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
In order to analyze data from an instrument administered at multiple time points it is a common practice to form composites of the items at each wave and to fit a longitudinal model to the composites. The advantage of using composites of items is that smaller sample sizes are required in contrast to second order models that include the measurement and the structural relationships among the variables. However, the use of composites assumes that longitudinal measurement invariance holds; that is, it is assumed that that the relationships among the items and the latent variables remain constant over time. Previous studies conducted on latent growth models (LGM) have shown that when longitudinal metric invariance is violated, the parameter estimates are biased and that mistaken conclusions about growth can be made. The purpose of the current study was to examine the impact of non-invariant loadings and non-invariant intercepts on two longitudinal models: the LGM and the autoregressive quasi-simplex model (AR quasi-simplex). A second purpose was to determine if there are conditions in which researchers can reach adequate conclusions about stability and growth even in the presence of violations of invariance. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to achieve the purposes. The method consisted of generating items under a linear curve of factors model (COFM) or under the AR quasi-simplex. Composites of the items were formed at each time point and analyzed with a linear LGM or an AR quasi-simplex model. The results showed that AR quasi-simplex model yielded biased path coefficients only in the conditions with large violations of invariance. The fit of the AR quasi-simplex was not affected by violations of invariance. In general, the growth parameter estimates of the LGM were biased under violations of invariance. Further, in the presence of non-invariant loadings the rejection rates of the hypothesis of linear growth increased as the proportion of non-invariant items and as the magnitude of violations of invariance increased. A discussion of the results and limitations of the study are provided as well as general recommendations.
ContributorsOlivera-Aguilar, Margarita (Author) / Millsap, Roger E. (Thesis advisor) / Levy, Roy (Committee member) / MacKinnon, David (Committee member) / West, Stephen G. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Mathematical modeling of infectious diseases can help public health officials to make decisions related to the mitigation of epidemic outbreaks. However, over or under estimations of the morbidity of any infectious disease can be problematic. Therefore, public health officials can always make use of better models to study the potential implication of their decisions and strategies prior to their implementation. Previous work focuses on the mechanisms underlying the different epidemic waves observed in Mexico during the novel swine origin influenza H1N1 pandemic of 2009 and showed extensions of classical models in epidemiology by adding temporal variations in different parameters that are likely to change during the time course of an epidemic, such as, the influence of media, social distancing, school closures, and how vaccination policies may affect different aspects of the dynamics of an epidemic. This current work further examines the influence of different factors considering the randomness of events by adding stochastic processes to meta-population models. I present three different approaches to compare different stochastic methods by considering discrete and continuous time. For the continuous time stochastic modeling approach I consider the continuous-time Markov chain process using forward Kolmogorov equations, for the discrete time stochastic modeling I consider stochastic differential equations using Wiener's increment and Poisson point increments, and also I consider the discrete-time Markov chain process. These first two stochastic modeling approaches will be presented in a one city and two city epidemic models using, as a base, our deterministic model. The last one will be discussed briefly on a one city SIS and SIR-type model.
ContributorsCruz-Aponte, Maytee (Author) / Wirkus, Stephen A. (Thesis advisor) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Thesis advisor) / Camacho, Erika T. (Committee member) / Kang, Yun (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Research shows that general parenting practices (e.g., support and discipline), influence adolescent substance use. However, socialization theory suggests that parental socialization occurs not only through general parenting practices, but also through parents' attempts to influence specific behaviors and values. A growing literature supports links between substance-specific parenting and adolescent substance use. For adolescent alcohol use, there are considerable limitations and gaps within this literature. To address these limitations, the present study examined the factor structure of alcohol-specific parenting, investigated the determinants of alcohol-specific parenting, and explored its association with nondrinking adolescents' attitudes about alcohol use. Using a high-risk sample of nondrinking adolescents and their parents, the current study found three dimensions of alcohol-specific parenting using both adolescent and parent reports, but also found evidence of non-invariance across reporters. Results also revealed complex roles of parental alcohol use disorder (AUD; including recovered and current AUD), family history of AUD, and current drinking as determinants of the three dimensions of anti-alcohol parenting behaviors. Moreover, the current study showed that the effects of these determinants varied by the reporter of the parenting behavior. Finally, the current study found the dimensions of alcohol-specific parenting to be unique and significant predictors of nondrinking adolescents' attitudes about alcohol, over and above general parenting practices, parent AUD, and parent current drinking. Given its demonstrated distinctness from general parenting practices, its link with adolescent alcohol attitudes, and its potential malleability, alcohol-specific parenting may be an important complement to interventions targeting parents of adolescents.
ContributorsHandley, Elizabeth D (Author) / Chassin, Laurie (Thesis advisor) / MacKinnon, David (Committee member) / Crnic, Keith (Committee member) / Sandler, Irwin (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
A functioning food web is the basis of a functioning community and ecosystem. Thus, it is important to understand the dynamics that control species behaviors and interactions. Alterations to the fundamental dynamics can prove detrimental to the future success of our environment. Research and analysis focus on the global dynamics involved in intraguild predation (IGP), a three species subsystem involving both competition and predation. A mathematical model is derived using differential equations based on pre-existing models to accurately predict species behavior. Analyses provide sufficient conditions for species persistence and extinction that can be used to explain global dynamics. Dynamics are compared for two separate models, one involving a specialist predator and the second involving a generalist predator, where systems involving a specialist predator are prone to unstable dynamics. Analyses have implications in biological conservation tactics including various methods of prevention and preservation. Simulations are used to compare dynamics between models involving continuous time and those involving discrete time. Furthermore, we derive a semi-discrete model that utilizes both continuous and discrete time series dynamics. Simulations imply that Holling's Type III functional response controls the potential for three species persistence. Complicated dynamics govern the IGP subsystem involving the white-footed mouse, gypsy moth, and oak, and they ultimately cause the synchronized defoliation of forests across the Northeastern United States. Acorn mast seasons occur every 4-5 years, and they occur simultaneously across a vast geographic region due to universal cues. Research confirms that synchronization can be transferred across trophic levels to explain how this IGP system ultimately leads to gypsy moth outbreaks. Geographically referenced data is used to track and slow the spread of gypsy moths further into the United States. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are used to create visual, readily accessible, displays of trap records, defoliation frequency, and susceptible forest stands. Mathematical models can be used to explain both changes in population densities and geographic movement. Analyses utilizing GIS softwares offer a different, but promising, way of approaching the vast topic of conservation biology. Simulations and maps are produced that can predict the effects of conservation efforts.
ContributorsWedekin, Lauren (Author) / Kang, Yun (Thesis advisor) / Green, Douglas (Committee member) / Miller, William (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
We model communication among social insects as an interacting particle system in which individuals perform one of two tasks and neighboring sites anti-mimic one another. Parameters of our model are a probability of defection 2 (0; 1) and relative cost ci > 0 to the individual performing task i. We examine this process on complete graphs, bipartite graphs, and the integers, answering questions about the relationship between communication, defection rates and the division of labor. Assuming the division of labor is ideal when exactly half of the colony is performing each task, we nd that on some bipartite graphs and the integers it can eventually be made arbitrarily close to optimal if defection rates are sufficiently small. On complete graphs the fraction of individuals performing each task is also closest to one half when there is no defection, but is bounded by a constant dependent on the relative costs of each task.
ContributorsArcuri, Alesandro Antonio (Author) / Lanchier, Nicolas (Thesis director) / Kang, Yun (Committee member) / Fewell, Jennifer (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of International Letters and Cultures (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
The Axelrod Model is an agent-based adaptive model. The Axelrod Model shows the eects of a mechanism of convergent social inuence. Do local conver- gences generate global polarization ? Will it be possible for all dierences between individuals in a population comprised of neighbors to disappear ? There are many mechanisms to approach this issue ; the Axelrod Model is one of them.
ContributorsYu, Yili (Author) / Lanchier, Nicolas (Thesis director) / Kang, Yun (Committee member) / Brooks, Dan (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor)
Created2013-05
Description
This thesis explores and explains a stochastic model in Evolutionary Game Theory introduced by Dr. Nicolas Lanchier. The model is a continuous-time Markov chain that maps the two-dimensional lattice into the strategy space {1,2}. At every vertex in the grid there is exactly one player whose payoff is determined by its strategy and the strategies of its neighbors. Update times are exponential random variables with parameters equal to the absolute value of the respective cells' payoffs. The model is connected to an ordinary differential equation known as the replicator equation. This differential equation is analyzed to find its fixed points and stability. Then, by simulating the model using Java code and observing the change in dynamics which result from varying the parameters of the payoff matrix, the stochastic model's phase diagram is compared to the replicator equation's phase diagram to see what effect local interactions and stochastic update times have on the evolutionary stability of strategies. It is revealed that in the stochastic model altruistic strategies can be evolutionarily stable, and selfish strategies are only evolutionarily stable if they are more selfish than their opposing strategy. This contrasts with the replicator equation where selfishness is always evolutionarily stable and altruism never is.
ContributorsWehn, Austin Brent (Author) / Lanchier, Nicolas (Thesis director) / Kang, Yun (Committee member) / Motsch, Sebastien (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / School of International Letters and Cultures (Contributor)
Created2013-12
Description
The nature and correlates of emerging internalizing symptoms in young children are largely unknown. Maternal factors such as psychological symptoms and detached parenting style have been found to be present in children with anxiety and depression. Further, child attentional control in task completion has been associated with difficulty related to internalizing problems. This study tested hypotheses that child anxiety and depression at age five could be predicted by a combination of maternal distress and maternal detached behavior recorded at age three. An additional hypothesis was tested to determine if child attentional control at age four may be a partial mediator of the relation between maternal symptoms and parenting to child internalizing symptoms. Using structural equation modeling, no hypotheses were supported; child internalizing problems were not significantly predicted by maternal distress nor detached parenting. Further, child attentional control was not predicted by maternal distress or detached behavior, nor did attentional control predict internalizing problems. Findings indicate that over a two-year interval, childhood internalizing problems at age five are likely best predicted by early internalizing problems at age three. There was no support that the mother or child factors tested were predictive of child outcomes.
ContributorsSkelley, Shayna (Author) / Crnic, Keith A (Thesis advisor) / Eisenberg, Nancy (Committee member) / MacKinnon, David (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2010
Description
Mathematical epidemiology, one of the oldest and richest areas in mathematical biology, has significantly enhanced our understanding of how pathogens emerge, evolve, and spread. Classical epidemiological models, the standard for predicting and managing the spread of infectious disease, assume that contacts between susceptible and infectious individuals depend on their relative frequency in the population. The behavioral factors that underpin contact rates are not generally addressed. There is, however, an emerging a class of models that addresses the feedbacks between infectious disease dynamics and the behavioral decisions driving host contact. Referred to as “economic epidemiology” or “epidemiological economics,” the approach explores the determinants of decisions about the number and type of contacts made by individuals, using insights and methods from economics. We show how the approach has the potential both to improve predictions of the course of infectious disease, and to support development of novel approaches to infectious disease management.
ContributorsPerrings, Charles (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Author) / Daszak, Peter (Author) / Fenichel, Eli P. (Author) / Finnoff, David (Author) / Horan, Richard D. (Author) / Kilpatrick, A. Marm (Author) / Kinzig, Ann (Author) / Kuminoff, Nicolai (Author) / Levin, Simon (Author) / Morin, Benjamin (Author) / Smith, Katherine F. (Author) / Springborn, Michael (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor) / W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Economics (Contributor) / Julie Ann Wrigley Global Institute of Sustainability (Contributor)
Created2015-12-01