Filtering by
- Member of: ASU Electronic Theses and Dissertations
Research shows that the subject of mathematics, although revered, remains a source of trepidation for many individuals, as they find it difficult to form a connection between the work they do on paper and their work's practical applications. This research study describes the impact of teaching a challenging introductive applied mathematics course on high school students' skills and attitudes towards mathematics in a college Summer Program. In the analysis of my research data, I identified several emerging changes in skills and attitudes towards mathematics, skills that high-school students needed or developed when taking the mathematical modeling course. Results indicated that the applied mathematics course had a positive impact on several students' attitudes, in general, such as, self-confidence, meanings of what mathematics is, and their perceptions of what solutions are. It also had a positive impact on several skills, such as translating real-life situations to mathematics via flow diagrams, translating the models' solutions back from mathematics to the real world, and interpreting graphs. Students showed positive results when the context of their problems was applied or graphical, and fewer improvement on problems that were not. Research also indicated some negatives outcomes, a decrease in confidence for certain students, and persistent negative ways of thinking about graphs. Based on these findings, I make recommendations for teaching similar mathematical modeling at the pre-university level, to encourage the development of young students through educational, research and similar mentorship activities, to increase their inspiration and interest in mathematics, and possibly consider a variety of sciences, technology, engineering and mathematics-related (STEM) fields and careers.
thropological research goal. This dissertation looks at the role of data-driven social
networks on infectious disease transmission and evolution. The dissertation has two
projects. The first project is an examination of the effects of the superspreading
phenomenon, wherein a relatively few individuals are responsible for a dispropor-
tionate number of secondary cases, on the patterns of an infectious disease. The
second project examines the timing of the initial introduction of tuberculosis (TB) to
the human population. The results suggest that TB has a long evolutionary history
with hunter-gatherers. Both of these projects demonstrate the consequences of social
networks for infectious disease transmission and evolution.
The introductory chapter provides a review of social network-based studies in an-
thropology and epidemiology. Particular emphasis is paid to the concept and models
of superspreading and why to consider it, as this is central to the discussion in chapter
2. The introductory chapter also reviews relevant epidemic mathematical modeling
studies.
In chapter 2, social networks are connected with superspreading events, followed
by an investigation of how social networks can provide greater understanding of in-
fectious disease transmission through mathematical models. Using the example of
SARS, the research shows how heterogeneity in transmission rate impacts super-
spreading which, in turn, can change epidemiological inference on model parameters
for an epidemic.
Chapter 3 uses a different mathematical model to investigate the evolution of TB
in hunter-gatherers. The underlying question is the timing of the introduction of TB
to the human population. Chapter 3 finds that TB’s long latent period is consistent
with the evolutionary pressure which would be exerted by transmission on a hunter-
igatherer social network. Evidence of a long coevolution with humans indicates an
early introduction of TB to the human population.
Both of the projects in this dissertation are demonstrations of the impact of var-
ious characteristics and types of social networks on infectious disease transmission
dynamics. The projects together force epidemiologists to think about networks and
their context in nontraditional ways.
The theoretical lens of developmental psychologists Lev Vygotsky (1978, 1987) and Lois Holzman (2010) that sees learning and development as a social process is used. From this view student development in MTBI is attributed to the collaborative and creative way students co-create the process of becoming scientists. This results in building a continuing network of academic and professional relationships among peers and mentors, in which around three quarters of MTBI PhD graduates come from underrepresented groups.
The extent to which MTBI creates a Vygotskian learning environment is explored from the perspectives of participants who earned doctoral degrees. Previously hypothesized factors (Castillo-Garsow, Castillo-Chavez and Woodley, 2013) that affect participants’ educational and professional development are expanded on.
Factors identified by participants are a passion for the mathematical sciences; desire to grow; enriching collaborative and peer-like interactions; and discovering career options. The self-recognition that they had the ability to be successful, key element of the Vygotskian-Holzman theoretical framework, was a commonly identified theme for their educational development and professional growth.
Participants characterize the collaborative and creative aspects of MTBI. They reported that collaborative dynamics with peers were strengthened as they co-created a learning environment that facilitated and accelerated their understanding of the mathematics needed to address their research. The dynamics of collaboration allowed them to complete complex homework assignments, and helped them formulate and complete their projects. Participants identified the creative environments of their research projects as where creativity emerged in the dynamics of the program.
These data-driven findings characterize for the first time a summer program in the mathematical sciences as a Vygotskian-Holzman environment, that is, a `place’ where participants are seen as capable applied mathematicians, where the dynamics of collaboration and creativity are fundamental components.
This thesis looks first at the impact that limited access to vaccine stockpiles may have on a single influenza outbreak. The purpose is to highlight the challenges faced by populations embedded in inadequate health systems and to identify and assess ways of ameliorating the impact of resource limitations on public health policy.
Age-specific per capita constraint rates play an important role on the dynamics of communicable diseases and, influenza is, of course, no exception. Yet the challenges associated with estimating age-specific contact rates have not been decisively met. And so, this thesis attempts to connect contact theory with age-specific contact data in the context of influenza outbreaks in practical ways. In mathematical epidemiology, proportionate mixing is used as the preferred theoretical mixing structure and so, the frame of discussion of this dissertation follows this specific theoretical framework. The questions that drive this dissertation, in the context of influenza dynamics, proportionate mixing, and control, are:
I. What is the role of age-aggregation on the dynamics of a single outbreak? Or simply speaking, does the number and length of the age-classes used to model a population make a significant difference on quantitative predictions?
II. What would the age-specific optimal influenza vaccination policies be? Or, what are the age-specific vaccination policies needed to control an outbreak in the presence of limited or unlimited vaccine stockpiles?
Intertwined with the above questions are issues of resilience and uncertainty including, whether or not data collected on mixing (by social scientists) can be used effectively to address both questions in the context of influenza and proportionate mixing. The objective is to provide answers to these questions by assessing the role of aggregation (number and length of age classes) and model robustness (does the aggregation scheme selected makes a difference on influenza dynamics and control) via comparisons between purely data-driven model and proportionate mixing models.
In this thesis, I have developed a study that uses novel techniques to link robust statistical tests and mathematical modeling methods guided by limited data from developed and developing regions in order to address pressing clinical and epidemiological questions of interest. The procedure in this study consists of three primary steps, namely, data collection, uncertainty quantification in data, and linking dynamic model to collected data.
The first part of the study focuses on designing, collecting, and summarizing empirical data from the only national survey of hospitals ever conducted regarding patient controlled analgesia (PCA) practices among 168 hospitals across 40 states, in order to assess risks before putting patients on PCA. I used statistical relational models and exploratory data analysis to address the question. Risk factors assessed indicate a great concern for the safety of patients from one healthcare institution to other.
In the second part, I quantify uncertainty associated with data obtained from James A Lovell Federal Healthcare Center to primarily study the effect of Benign Prostatic Hypertrophy (BPH) on sleep architecture in patients with Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA). Patients with OSA and BPH demonstrated significant difference in their sleep architecture in comparison to patients without BPH. One of the ways to validate these differences in sleep architecture between the two groups may be to carry out a similar study that evaluates the effect of some other chronic disease on sleep architecture in patients with OSA.
Additionally, I also address theoretical statistical questions such as (1) how to estimate the distribution of a variable in order to retest null hypothesis when the sample size is limited, and (2) how changes on assumptions (like monotonicity and nonlinearity) translate into the effect of the independent variable on the outcome variable. To address these questions we use multiple techniques such as Partial Rank Correlation Coefficients (PRCC) based sensitivity analysis, Fractional Polynomials, and statistical relational models.
In the third part, my goal was to identify socio-economic-environment-related risk factors for Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) and use the identified critical factors to develop a mathematical model to understand VL transmission dynamics when data is highly underreported. I primarily studied the role of age-specific- susceptibility and epidemiological quantities on the dynamics of VL in the Indian state of Bihar. Statistical results provided ideas on the choice of the modeling framework and estimates of model parameters.
In the conclusion, this study addressed three primary theoretical modeling-related questions (1) how to analyze collected data when sample size limited, and how modeling assumptions varies results of data analysis? (2) Is it possible to identify hidden associations and nonlinearity of these associations using such underpowered data and (3) how statistical models provide more reasonable structure to mathematical modeling framework that can be used in turn to understand dynamics of the system.
In this work I explored the efficiency of integrating check-pointing into the application and the effectiveness of recovery that can be performed upon it. After evaluating the available fine-grained approaches to perform recovery, I am introducing InCheck, an in-application recovery scheme that can be integrated into instruction-duplication based techniques, thus providing a fast error recovery. The proposed technique makes light-weight checkpoints at the basic-block granularity, and uses them for recovery purposes.
To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed technique, 10,000 fault injection experiments were performed on different hardware components of a modern ARM in-order simulated processor. InCheck was able to recover from all detected errors by replaying about 20 instructions, however, the state of the art recovery scheme failed more than 200 times.
contagion. In Chapter Four, the dynamics of Zika virus are explored in two highly distinct idealized environments defined by a parameter that models highly distinctive levels of risk, the result of vector and host density and vector control measures. The underlying assumption is that these two communities are intimately connected due to economics with the impact of various patterns of mobility being incorporated via
the use of residency times. In short, a highly heterogeneous community is defined by its risk of acquiring a Zika infection within one of two "spaces," one lacking access to health services or effective vector control policies (lack of resources or ignored due to high levels of crime, or poverty, or both). Low risk regions are defined as those with access to solid health facilities and where vector control measures are implemented routinely. It was found that the better connected these communities are, the existence of communities where mobility between risk regions is not hampered, lower the overall, two patch Zika prevalence. Chapter Five focuses on the dynamics of tuberculosis (TB), a communicable disease, also on an idealized high-low risk set up. The impact of mobility within these two highly distinct TB-risk environments on the dynamics and control of this disease is systematically explored. It is found that collaboration and mobility, under some circumstances, can reduce the overall TB burden.
Treatment non-adherence is a less focused (so far) but crucial factor for the hindrance in WHO’s past VL elimination goals. Moreover, treatment non-adherers, hidden from surveillance, lead to high case-underreporting. Dynamical models are developed capturing the role of treatment-related human behaviors (patients’ infectivity, treatment access and non-adherence) on VL dynamics. The results suggest that the average duration of treatment adherence must be increased from currently 10 days to 17 days for a 28-day Miltefosine treatment to eliminate VL.
For STH, children are considered as a high-risk group due to their hygiene behaviors leading to higher exposure to contamination. Hence, Ghana, a resource-limited country, currently implements a school-based Mass Drug Administration (sMDA) program only among children. School staff (adults), equally exposed to this high environmental contamination of STH, are largely ignored under the current MDA program. Cost-effective MDA policies were modeled and compared using alternative definitions of “high-risk population”. This work optimized and evaluated how MDA along with the treatment for high-risk adults makes a significant improvement in STH control under the same budget. The criticality of risk-structured modeling depends on the infectivity coefficient being substantially different for the two adult risk groups.
This dissertation pioneers in highlighting the cruciality of treatment-related risk groups for NTD-control. It provides novel approaches to quantify relevant metrics and impact of population factors. Compliance with the principles and strategies from this study would require a change in political thinking in the neglected regions in order to achieve persistent NTD-control.