High-resolution, global quantification of fossil fuel CO[subscript 2] emissions is emerging as a critical need in carbon cycle science and climate policy. We build upon a previously developed fossil fuel data assimilation system (FFDAS) for estimating global high-resolution fossil fuel CO[subscript 2] emissions. We have improved the underlying observationally based data sources, expanded the approach through treatment of separate emitting sectors including a new pointwise database of global power plants, and extended the results to cover a 1997 to 2010 time series at a spatial resolution of 0.1°. Long-term trend analysis of the resulting global emissions shows subnational spatial structure in large active economies such as the United States, China, and India. These three countries, in particular, show different long-term trends and exploration of the trends in nighttime lights, and population reveal a decoupling of population and emissions at the subnational level. Analysis of shorter-term variations reveals the impact of the 2008–2009 global financial crisis with widespread negative emission anomalies across the U.S. and Europe. We have used a center of mass (CM) calculation as a compact metric to express the time evolution of spatial patterns in fossil fuel CO[subscript 2] emissions. The global emission CM has moved toward the east and somewhat south between 1997 and 2010, driven by the increase in emissions in China and South Asia over this time period. Analysis at the level of individual countries reveals per capita CO[subscript 2] emission migration in both Russia and India. The per capita emission CM holds potential as a way to succinctly analyze subnational shifts in carbon intensity over time. Uncertainties are generally lower than the previous version of FFDAS due mainly to an improved nightlight data set.

Allowing resource users to communicate in behavioural experiments on commons dilemmas increases the level of cooperation. In actual common pool resource dilemmas in the real world, communication is costly, which is an important detail missing from most typical experiments. We conducted experiments where participants must give up harvesting opportunities to communicate. The constrained communication treatment is compared with the effect of limited information about the state of the resource and the actions of the other participants. We find that despite making communication costly, performance of groups improves in all treatments with communication. We also find that constraining communication has a more significant effect than limiting information on the performance of groups.

Online communities are becoming increasingly important as platforms for large-scale human cooperation. These communities allow users seeking and sharing professional skills to solve problems collaboratively. To investigate how users cooperate to complete a large number of knowledge-producing tasks, we analyze Stack Exchange, one of the largest question and answer systems in the world. We construct attention networks to model the growth of 110 communities in the Stack Exchange system and quantify individual answering strategies using the linking dynamics on attention networks. We identify two answering strategies. Strategy A aims at performing maintenance by doing simple tasks, whereas strategy B aims at investing time in doing challenging tasks. Both strategies are important: empirical evidence shows that strategy A decreases the median waiting time for answers and strategy B increases the acceptance rate of answers. In investigating the strategic persistence of users, we find that users tends to stick on the same strategy over time in a community, but switch from one strategy to the other across communities. This finding reveals the different sets of knowledge and skills between users. A balance between the population of users taking A and B strategies that approximates 2:1, is found to be optimal to the sustainable growth of communities.

Background: Immunosignaturing is a new peptide microarray based technology for profiling of humoral immune responses. Despite new challenges, immunosignaturing gives us the opportunity to explore new and fundamentally different research questions. In addition to classifying samples based on disease status, the complex patterns and latent factors underlying immunosignatures, which we attempt to model, may have a diverse range of applications.

Methods: We investigate the utility of a number of statistical methods to determine model performance and address challenges inherent in analyzing immunosignatures. Some of these methods include exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses, classical significance testing, structural equation and mixture modeling.

Results: We demonstrate an ability to classify samples based on disease status and show that immunosignaturing is a very promising technology for screening and presymptomatic screening of disease. In addition, we are able to model complex patterns and latent factors underlying immunosignatures. These latent factors may serve as biomarkers for disease and may play a key role in a bioinformatic method for antibody discovery.

Conclusion: Based on this research, we lay out an analytic framework illustrating how immunosignatures may be useful as a general method for screening and presymptomatic screening of disease as well as antibody discovery.

Background: Microarray image analysis processes scanned digital images of hybridized arrays to produce the input spot-level data for downstream analysis, so it can have a potentially large impact on those and subsequent analysis. Signal saturation is an optical effect that occurs when some pixel values for highly expressed genes or peptides exceed the upper detection threshold of the scanner software (2¹⁶ - 1 = 65, 535 for 16-bit images). In practice, spots with a sizable number of saturated pixels are often flagged and discarded. Alternatively, the saturated values are used without adjustments for estimating spot intensities. The resulting expression data tend to be biased downwards and can distort high-level analysis that relies on these data. Hence, it is crucial to effectively correct for signal saturation.

Results: We developed a flexible mixture model-based segmentation and spot intensity estimation procedure that accounts for saturated pixels by incorporating a censored component in the mixture model. As demonstrated with biological data and simulation, our method extends the dynamic range of expression data beyond the saturation threshold and is effective in correcting saturation-induced bias when the lost information is not tremendous. We further illustrate the impact of image processing on downstream classification, showing that the proposed method can increase diagnostic accuracy using data from a lymphoma cancer diagnosis study.

Conclusions: The presented method adjusts for signal saturation at the segmentation stage that identifies a pixel as part of the foreground, background or other. The cluster membership of a pixel can be altered versus treating saturated values as truly observed. Thus, the resulting spot intensity estimates may be more accurate than those obtained from existing methods that correct for saturation based on already segmented data. As a model-based segmentation method, our procedure is able to identify inner holes, fuzzy edges and blank spots that are common in microarray images. The approach is independent of microarray platform and applicable to both single- and dual-channel microarrays.

Background: High-throughput technologies such as DNA, RNA, protein, antibody and peptide microarrays are often used to examine differences across drug treatments, diseases, transgenic animals, and others. Typically one trains a classification system by gathering large amounts of probe-level data, selecting informative features, and classifies test samples using a small number of features. As new microarrays are invented, classification systems that worked well for other array types may not be ideal. Expression microarrays, arguably one of the most prevalent array types, have been used for years to help develop classification algorithms. Many biological assumptions are built into classifiers that were designed for these types of data. One of the more problematic is the assumption of independence, both at the probe level and again at the biological level. Probes for RNA transcripts are designed to bind single transcripts. At the biological level, many genes have dependencies across transcriptional pathways where co-regulation of transcriptional units may make many genes appear as being completely dependent. Thus, algorithms that perform well for gene expression data may not be suitable when other technologies with different binding characteristics exist. The immunosignaturing microarray is based on complex mixtures of antibodies binding to arrays of random sequence peptides. It relies on many-to-many binding of antibodies to the random sequence peptides. Each peptide can bind multiple antibodies and each antibody can bind multiple peptides. This technology has been shown to be highly reproducible and appears promising for diagnosing a variety of disease states. However, it is not clear what is the optimal classification algorithm for analyzing this new type of data.

Results: We characterized several classification algorithms to analyze immunosignaturing data. We selected several datasets that range from easy to difficult to classify, from simple monoclonal binding to complex binding patterns in asthma patients. We then classified the biological samples using 17 different classification algorithms. Using a wide variety of assessment criteria, we found ‘Naïve Bayes’ far more useful than other widely used methods due to its simplicity, robustness, speed and accuracy.

Conclusions: ‘Naïve Bayes’ algorithm appears to accommodate the complex patterns hidden within multilayered immunosignaturing microarray data due to its fundamental mathematical properties.

On-going efforts to understand the dynamics of coupled social-ecological (or more broadly, coupled infrastructure) systems and common pool resources have led to the generation of numerous datasets based on a large number of case studies. This data has facilitated the identification of important factors and fundamental principles which increase our understanding of such complex systems. However, the data at our disposal are often not easily comparable, have limited scope and scale, and are based on disparate underlying frameworks inhibiting synthesis, meta-analysis, and the validation of findings. Research efforts are further hampered when case inclusion criteria, variable definitions, coding schema, and inter-coder reliability testing are not made explicit in the presentation of research and shared among the research community. This paper first outlines challenges experienced by researchers engaged in a large-scale coding project; then highlights valuable lessons learned; and finally discusses opportunities for further research on comparative case study analysis focusing on social-ecological systems and common pool resources. Includes supplemental materials and appendices published in the International Journal of the Commons 2016 Special Issue. Volume 10 - Issue 2 - 2016.

Governing common pool resources (CPR) in the face of disturbances such as globalization and climate change is challenging. The outcome of any CPR governance regime is the influenced by local combinations of social, institutional, and biophysical factors, as well as cross-scale interdependencies. In this study, we take a step towards understanding multiple-causation of CPR outcomes by analyzing 1) the co-occurrence of Design Principles (DP) by activity (irrigation, fishery and forestry), and 2) the combination(s) of DPs leading to social and ecological success. We analyzed 69 cases pertaining to three different activities: irrigation, fishery, and forestry. We find that the importance of the design principles is dependent upon the natural and hard human made infrastructure (i.e. canals, equipment, vessels etc.). For example, clearly defined social boundaries are important when the natural infrastructure is highly mobile (i.e. tuna fish), while monitoring is more important when the natural infrastructure is more static (i.e. forests or water contained within an irrigation system). However, we also find that congruence between local conditions and rules and proportionality between investment and extraction are key for CPR success independent from the natural and human hard made infrastructure. We further provide new visualization techniques for co-occurrence patterns and add to qualitative comparative analysis by introducing a reliability metric to deal with a large meta-analysis dataset on secondary data where information is missing or uncertain.

Includes supplemental materials and appendices publications in International Journal of the Commons 2016 Special Issue. Volume 10 - Issue 2 - 2016

Sustainability theory can help achieve desirable social-ecological states by generalizing lessons across contexts and improving the design of sustainability interventions. To accomplish these goals, we argue that theory in sustainability science must (1) explain the emergence and persistence of social-ecological states, (2) account for endogenous cultural change, (3) incorporate cooperation dynamics, and (4) address the complexities of multilevel social-ecological interactions. We suggest that cultural evolutionary theory broadly, and cultural multilevel selection in particular, can improve on these fronts. We outline a multilevel evolutionary framework for describing social-ecological change and detail how multilevel cooperative dynamics can determine outcomes in environmental dilemmas. We show how this framework complements existing sustainability frameworks with a description of the emergence and persistence of sustainable institutions and behavior, a means to generalize causal patterns across social-ecological contexts, and a heuristic for designing and evaluating effective sustainability interventions. We support these assertions with case examples from developed and developing countries in which we track cooperative change at multiple levels of social organization as they impact social-ecological outcomes. Finally, we make suggestions for further theoretical development, empirical testing, and application.

Introduction: The ketogenic diet (KD) is a high-fat, low-carbohydrate diet that alters metabolism by increasing the level of ketone bodies in the blood. KetoCal® (KC) is a nutritionally complete, commercially available 4∶1 (fat∶ carbohydrate+protein) ketogenic formula that is an effective non-pharmacologic treatment for the management of refractory pediatric epilepsy. Diet-induced ketosis causes changes to brain homeostasis that have potential for the treatment of other neurological diseases such as malignant gliomas.

Methods: We used an intracranial bioluminescent mouse model of malignant glioma. Following implantation animals were maintained on standard diet (SD) or KC. The mice received 2×4 Gy of whole brain radiation and tumor growth was followed by in vivo imaging.

Results: Animals fed KC had elevated levels of β-hydroxybutyrate (p = 0.0173) and an increased median survival of approximately 5 days relative to animals maintained on SD. KC plus radiation treatment were more than additive, and in 9 of 11 irradiated animals maintained on KC the bioluminescent signal from the tumor cells diminished below the level of detection (p<0.0001). Animals were switched to SD 101 days after implantation and no signs of tumor recurrence were seen for over 200 days.

Conclusions: KC significantly enhances the anti-tumor effect of radiation. This suggests that cellular metabolic alterations induced through KC may be useful as an adjuvant to the current standard of care for the treatment of human malignant gliomas.