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Description
Preserving a system’s viability in the presence of diversity erosion is critical if the goal is to sustainably support biodiversity. Reduction in population heterogeneity, whether inter- or intraspecies, may increase population fragility, either decreasing its ability to adapt effectively to environmental changes or facilitating the survival and success of ordinarily rare phenotypes. The latter may result in over-representation of individuals who may participate in resource utilization patterns that can lead to over-exploitation, exhaustion, and, ultimately, collapse of both the resource and the population that depends on it. Here, we aim to identify regimes that can signal whether a consumer–resource system is capable of supporting viable degrees of heterogeneity. The framework used here is an expansion of a previously introduced consumer–resource type system of a population of individuals classified by their resource consumption. Application of the Reduction Theorem to the system enables us to evaluate the health of the system through tracking both the mean value of the parameter of resource (over)consumption, and the population variance, as both change over time. The article concludes with a discussion that highlights applicability of the proposed system to investigation of systems that are affected by particularly devastating overly adapted populations, namely cancerous cells. Potential intervention approaches for system management are discussed in the context of cancer therapies.
ContributorsKareva, Irina (Author) / Morin, Benjamin (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor) / Julie Ann Wrigley Global Institute of Sustainability (Contributor)
Created2015-02-01
Description
Background
In the weeks following the first imported case of Ebola in the U. S. on September 29, 2014, coverage of the very limited outbreak dominated the news media, in a manner quite disproportionate to the actual threat to national public health; by the end of October, 2014, there were only four laboratory confirmed cases of Ebola in the entire nation. Public interest in these events was high, as reflected in the millions of Ebola-related Internet searches and tweets performed in the month following the first confirmed case. Use of trending Internet searches and tweets has been proposed in the past for real-time prediction of outbreaks (a field referred to as “digital epidemiology”), but accounting for the biases of public panic has been problematic. In the case of the limited U. S. Ebola outbreak, we know that the Ebola-related searches and tweets originating the U. S. during the outbreak were due only to public interest or panic, providing an unprecedented means to determine how these dynamics affect such data, and how news media may be driving these trends.
Methodology
We examine daily Ebola-related Internet search and Twitter data in the U. S. during the six week period ending Oct 31, 2014. TV news coverage data were obtained from the daily number of Ebola-related news videos appearing on two major news networks. We fit the parameters of a mathematical contagion model to the data to determine if the news coverage was a significant factor in the temporal patterns in Ebola-related Internet and Twitter data.
Conclusions
We find significant evidence of contagion, with each Ebola-related news video inspiring tens of thousands of Ebola-related tweets and Internet searches. Between 65% to 76% of the variance in all samples is described by the news media contagion model.
In the weeks following the first imported case of Ebola in the U. S. on September 29, 2014, coverage of the very limited outbreak dominated the news media, in a manner quite disproportionate to the actual threat to national public health; by the end of October, 2014, there were only four laboratory confirmed cases of Ebola in the entire nation. Public interest in these events was high, as reflected in the millions of Ebola-related Internet searches and tweets performed in the month following the first confirmed case. Use of trending Internet searches and tweets has been proposed in the past for real-time prediction of outbreaks (a field referred to as “digital epidemiology”), but accounting for the biases of public panic has been problematic. In the case of the limited U. S. Ebola outbreak, we know that the Ebola-related searches and tweets originating the U. S. during the outbreak were due only to public interest or panic, providing an unprecedented means to determine how these dynamics affect such data, and how news media may be driving these trends.
Methodology
We examine daily Ebola-related Internet search and Twitter data in the U. S. during the six week period ending Oct 31, 2014. TV news coverage data were obtained from the daily number of Ebola-related news videos appearing on two major news networks. We fit the parameters of a mathematical contagion model to the data to determine if the news coverage was a significant factor in the temporal patterns in Ebola-related Internet and Twitter data.
Conclusions
We find significant evidence of contagion, with each Ebola-related news video inspiring tens of thousands of Ebola-related tweets and Internet searches. Between 65% to 76% of the variance in all samples is described by the news media contagion model.
ContributorsTowers, Sherry (Author) / Afzal, Shehzad (Author) / Bernal, Gilbert (Author) / Bliss, Nadya (Author) / Brown, Shala (Author) / Espinoza, Baltazar (Author) / Jackson, Jasmine (Author) / Judson-Garcia, Julia (Author) / Khan, Maryam (Author) / Lin, Michael (Author) / Mamada, Robert (Author) / Moreno, Victor (Author) / Nazari, Fereshteh (Author) / Okuneye, Kamaldeen (Author) / Ross, Mary (Author) / Rodriguez, Claudia (Author) / Medlock, Jan (Author) / Ebert, David (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor) / Mary Lou Fulton Teachers College (Contributor) / Educational Leadership and Innovation (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Global Security Initiative (Contributor)
Created2015-06-11
Description
Background
Seroepidemiological studies before and after the epidemic wave of H1N1-2009 are useful for estimating population attack rates with a potential to validate early estimates of the reproduction number, R, in modeling studies.
Methodology/Principal Findings
Since the final epidemic size, the proportion of individuals in a population who become infected during an epidemic, is not the result of a binomial sampling process because infection events are not independent of each other, we propose the use of an asymptotic distribution of the final size to compute approximate 95% confidence intervals of the observed final size. This allows the comparison of the observed final sizes against predictions based on the modeling study (R = 1.15, 1.40 and 1.90), which also yields simple formulae for determining sample sizes for future seroepidemiological studies. We examine a total of eleven published seroepidemiological studies of H1N1-2009 that took place after observing the peak incidence in a number of countries. Observed seropositive proportions in six studies appear to be smaller than that predicted from R = 1.40; four of the six studies sampled serum less than one month after the reported peak incidence. The comparison of the observed final sizes against R = 1.15 and 1.90 reveals that all eleven studies appear not to be significantly deviating from the prediction with R = 1.15, but final sizes in nine studies indicate overestimation if the value R = 1.90 is used.
Conclusions
Sample sizes of published seroepidemiological studies were too small to assess the validity of model predictions except when R = 1.90 was used. We recommend the use of the proposed approach in determining the sample size of post-epidemic seroepidemiological studies, calculating the 95% confidence interval of observed final size, and conducting relevant hypothesis testing instead of the use of methods that rely on a binomial proportion.
Seroepidemiological studies before and after the epidemic wave of H1N1-2009 are useful for estimating population attack rates with a potential to validate early estimates of the reproduction number, R, in modeling studies.
Methodology/Principal Findings
Since the final epidemic size, the proportion of individuals in a population who become infected during an epidemic, is not the result of a binomial sampling process because infection events are not independent of each other, we propose the use of an asymptotic distribution of the final size to compute approximate 95% confidence intervals of the observed final size. This allows the comparison of the observed final sizes against predictions based on the modeling study (R = 1.15, 1.40 and 1.90), which also yields simple formulae for determining sample sizes for future seroepidemiological studies. We examine a total of eleven published seroepidemiological studies of H1N1-2009 that took place after observing the peak incidence in a number of countries. Observed seropositive proportions in six studies appear to be smaller than that predicted from R = 1.40; four of the six studies sampled serum less than one month after the reported peak incidence. The comparison of the observed final sizes against R = 1.15 and 1.90 reveals that all eleven studies appear not to be significantly deviating from the prediction with R = 1.15, but final sizes in nine studies indicate overestimation if the value R = 1.90 is used.
Conclusions
Sample sizes of published seroepidemiological studies were too small to assess the validity of model predictions except when R = 1.90 was used. We recommend the use of the proposed approach in determining the sample size of post-epidemic seroepidemiological studies, calculating the 95% confidence interval of observed final size, and conducting relevant hypothesis testing instead of the use of methods that rely on a binomial proportion.
ContributorsNishiura, Hiroshi (Author) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor)
Created2011-03-24
Description
Background
Several past studies have found that media reports of suicides and homicides appear to subsequently increase the incidence of similar events in the community, apparently due to the coverage planting the seeds of ideation in at-risk individuals to commit similar acts.
Methods
Here we explore whether or not contagion is evident in more high-profile incidents, such as school shootings and mass killings (incidents with four or more people killed). We fit a contagion model to recent data sets related to such incidents in the US, with terms that take into account the fact that a school shooting or mass murder may temporarily increase the probability of a similar event in the immediate future, by assuming an exponential decay in contagiousness after an event.
Conclusions
We find significant evidence that mass killings involving firearms are incented by similar events in the immediate past. On average, this temporary increase in probability lasts 13 days, and each incident incites at least 0.30 new incidents (p = 0.0015). We also find significant evidence of contagion in school shootings, for which an incident is contagious for an average of 13 days, and incites an average of at least 0.22 new incidents (p = 0.0001). All p-values are assessed based on a likelihood ratio test comparing the likelihood of a contagion model to that of a null model with no contagion. On average, mass killings involving firearms occur approximately every two weeks in the US, while school shootings occur on average monthly. We find that state prevalence of firearm ownership is significantly associated with the state incidence of mass killings with firearms, school shootings, and mass shootings.
Several past studies have found that media reports of suicides and homicides appear to subsequently increase the incidence of similar events in the community, apparently due to the coverage planting the seeds of ideation in at-risk individuals to commit similar acts.
Methods
Here we explore whether or not contagion is evident in more high-profile incidents, such as school shootings and mass killings (incidents with four or more people killed). We fit a contagion model to recent data sets related to such incidents in the US, with terms that take into account the fact that a school shooting or mass murder may temporarily increase the probability of a similar event in the immediate future, by assuming an exponential decay in contagiousness after an event.
Conclusions
We find significant evidence that mass killings involving firearms are incented by similar events in the immediate past. On average, this temporary increase in probability lasts 13 days, and each incident incites at least 0.30 new incidents (p = 0.0015). We also find significant evidence of contagion in school shootings, for which an incident is contagious for an average of 13 days, and incites an average of at least 0.22 new incidents (p = 0.0001). All p-values are assessed based on a likelihood ratio test comparing the likelihood of a contagion model to that of a null model with no contagion. On average, mass killings involving firearms occur approximately every two weeks in the US, while school shootings occur on average monthly. We find that state prevalence of firearm ownership is significantly associated with the state incidence of mass killings with firearms, school shootings, and mass shootings.
ContributorsTowers, Sherry (Author) / Gomez-Lievano, Andres (Author) / Khan, Maryam (Author) / Mubayi, Anuj (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor)
Created2015-07-02
Description
Thousands of human lives are lost every day due to chronic diseases, some more preventable than others. For years, the gold standard for diagnosing and monitoring these diseases has been through traditional methods such as individualized doctor-patient clinical evaluations, usually involving laboratory tests. These methods, though effective, can be costly, time-consuming, and fail to encompass an overarching perspective of the health profile of the larger population. Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has successfully been employed for decades as a population-level data source informing on the consumption of licit and illicit substance use. It also is showing promise for its use as a community-wide diagnostic tool for broader public health measurements. This literature review constitutes a theoretical evaluation of the potential use of WBE for monitoring the top two deadly diseases in the United States; cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer. Literature-reported metabolites indicative of these diseases were evaluated to determine if they were capable of being identified and monitored in wastewater. Potential analytes include cardiac-specific troponin, α-fenotroin, and inositol. Results obtained within suggest WBE could be used as a viable and economical tool to track and monitor the top deadly diseases in human populations. This methodology could be implemented in tandem with current practices in order to provide a more holistic understanding of prevalence and risk for CVD and cancer.
ContributorsAmin, Vivek (Author) / Halden, Rolf (Thesis director) / Niebuhr, Robert (Committee member) / Bowes, Devin (Committee member) / School of Human Evolution & Social Change (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-05
Description
Microplastics are defined as small pieces of plastics that are less than five millimeters in size. These microplastics can vary in their appearance, are known to be harmful to aquatic life and can threaten life cycles of marine organisms because of their chemical make-up and the toxic additives used in their manufacture. Although small in size, it is hypothesized that microplastics can serve as an example of how human activities can alter ecosystems near and far. To investigate the implications and determine the potential impact of microplastics on a protected atoll’s ecosystems, red-footed booby (Sula sula) guano samples from six locations on Palmyra Atoll were acquired from North Carolina State University via The Nature Conservancy and were inspected for the presence of microplastics. Each of the guano samples were weighed and prepared via wet oxidation. Microplastic fibers were detected via stereoscope microscopy and analyzed for chemical composition via Raman spectroscopy. All six sampling locations within Palmyra Atoll contained microplastic fibers identified as polyethylene terephthalate, with North-South Causeway and Eastern Island having the highest average number of microplastic fibers found per gram of guano sample (n = 0.611). These data provide evidence that seabirds can serve as vectors for the spread of microplastic pollution. This research lends context to the widespread impact of plastic pollution and states possible implications of its presence in delicate ecosystems.
ContributorsAnderson, Alyssa Cerise (Author) / Lisenbee, Cayle (Thesis director) / Halden, Rolf (Committee member) / Rolsky, Charles (Committee member) / College of Health Solutions (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
Current methods measuring the consumption of prescription and illicit drugs are often hampered by innate limitations, the data is slow and often restricted, which can impact the relevance and robustness of the associated data. Here, wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) was applied as an alternative metric to measure trends in the consumption of twelve narcotics within a collegiate setting from January 2018 to May 2018 at a Southwestern U.S. university. The present follow-up study was designed to identify potential changes in the consumption patterns of prescription and illicit drugs as the academic year progressed. Samples were collected from two sites that capture nearly 100% of campus-generated wastewater. Seven consecutive 24-hour composite raw wastewater samples were collected each month (n = 68) from both locations. The study identified the average consumption of select narcotics, in units of mg/day/1000 persons in the following order: cocaine (528 ± 266), heroin (404 ± 315), methylphenidate (343 ± 396), amphetamine (308 ±105), ecstasy (MDMA; 114 ± 198), oxycodone (57 ± 28), methadone (58 ± 73), and codeine (84 ± 40). The consumption of oxycodone, methadone, heroin, and cocaine were identified as statistically lower in the Spring 2018 semester compared to the Fall 2017. Universities may need to increase drug education for the fall semester to lower the consumption of drugs in that semester. Data from this research encompasses both human health and the built environment by evaluating public health through collection of municipal wastewater, allowing public health officials rapid and robust narcotic consumption data while maintaining the anonymity of the students, faculty, and staff.
ContributorsCarlson, Alyssa Rose (Author) / Halden, Rolf (Thesis director) / Gushgari, Adam (Committee member) / School of Human Evolution & Social Change (Contributor) / Chemical Engineering Program (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-05
Description
The combined use of methamphetamine and opioids has been reported to be on the rise throughout the United States (U.S.). However, our knowledge of this phenomenon is largely based upon reported overdoses and overdose-related deaths, law enforcement seizures, and drug treatment records; data that are often slow, restricted, and only track a portion of the population participating in drug consumption activities. As an alternative, wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has the capability to track licit and illicit drug trends within an entire community, at a low cost and in near real-time, while providing anonymity to those contributing to the sewer shed. In this study, wastewater was collected from two Midwestern U.S. cities (2017-2019) and analyzed for the prevalence of methamphetamine and the opioids oxycodone, codeine, fentanyl, tramadol, hydrocodone, and hydromorphone. Monthly 24-hour time-weighted composite samples (n = 48) from each city were analyzed using isotope dilution liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry. Results showed that methamphetamine and total opioid consumption (milligram morphine equivalents) in City 1 were strongly correlated only in 2017 (Spearman rank order correlation coefficient, ρ = 0.78), the relationship driven by fentanyl, hydrocodone, and hydromorphone. For City 2, methamphetamine and total opioid consumption were strongly positively correlated during the entire study (ρ = 0.54), with the correlations driven by hydrocodone and hydromorphone. In both cities, hydrocodone and hydromorphone mass loads were highly correlated, suggesting a parent and metabolite relationship. WBE provides important insights into licit and illicit drug consumption patterns in near real-time as they evolve; important information for community stakeholders in municipalities across the U.S.
ContributorsClick, Kathleen Grace (Author) / Halden, Rolf (Thesis director) / Gushgari, Adam (Committee member) / Driver, Erin (Committee member) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution & Social Change (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-05
Description
Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disease resulting in loss of cognitive function and is not considered part of the typical aging process. Recently, research is being conducted to study environmental effects on AD because the exact molecular mechanisms behind AD are not known. The associations between various toxins and AD have been mixed and unclear. In order to better understand the role of the environment and toxic substances on AD, we conducted a literature review and geospatial analysis of environmental, specifically wastewater, contaminants that have biological plausibility for increasing risk of development or exacerbation of AD. This literature review assisted us in selecting 10 wastewater toxic substances that displayed a mixed or one-sided relationship with the symptoms or prevalence of Alzheimer’s for our data analysis. We utilized data of toxic substances in wastewater treatment plants and compared them to the crude rate of AD in the different Census regions of the United States to test for possible linear relationships. Using data from the Targeted National Sewage Sludge Survey (TNSSS) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), we developed an application using R Shiny to allow users to interactively visualize both datasets as choropleths of the United States and understand the importance of this area of research. Pearson’s correlation coefficient was calculated resulting in arsenic and cadmium displaying positive linear correlations with AD. Other analytes from this statistical analysis demonstrated mixed correlations with AD. This application and data analysis serve as a model in the methodology for further geospatial analysis on AD. Further data analysis and visualization at a lower level in terms of scope is necessary for more accurate and reliable evidence of a causal relationship between the wastewater substance analytes and AD.
GitHub Repository: https://github.com/komal-agrawal/AD_GIS.git
GitHub Repository: https://github.com/komal-agrawal/AD_GIS.git
ContributorsAgrawal, Komal (Author) / Scotch, Matthew (Thesis director) / Halden, Rolf (Committee member) / College of Health Solutions (Contributor, Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
With a rapidly decreasing amount of resources for construction, wood and bamboo have been suggested as renewable materials for increased use in the future to attain sustainability. Through a literature review, bamboo and wood growth, manufacturing and structural attributes were compared and then scored in a weighted matrix to determine the option that shows the higher rate of sustainability. In regards to the growth phase, which includes water usage, land usage, growth time, bamboo and wood showed similar characteristics overall, with wood scoring 1.11% higher than bamboo. Manufacturing, which captures the extraction and milling processes, is experiencing use of wood at levels four times those of bamboo, as bamboo production has not reached the efficiency of wood within the United States. Structural use proved to display bamboo’s power, as it scored 30% higher than wood. Overall, bamboo received a score 15% greater than that of wood, identifying this fast growing plant as the comparatively more sustainable construction material.
ContributorsThies, Jett Martin (Author) / Ward, Kristen (Thesis director) / Halden, Rolf (Committee member) / Industrial, Systems & Operations Engineering Prgm (Contributor) / Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Eng Program (Contributor, Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05