Matching Items (94)
Description
Longitudinal recursive partitioning (LRP) is a tree-based method for longitudinal data. It takes a sample of individuals that were each measured repeatedly across time, and it splits them based on a set of covariates such that individuals with similar trajectories become grouped together into nodes. LRP does this by fitting a mixed-effects model to each node every time that it becomes partitioned and extracting the deviance, which is the measure of node purity. LRP is implemented using the classification and regression tree algorithm, which suffers from a variable selection bias and does not guarantee reaching a global optimum. Additionally, fitting mixed-effects models to each potential split only to extract the deviance and discard the rest of the information is a computationally intensive procedure. Therefore, in this dissertation, I address the high computational demand, variable selection bias, and local optimum solution. I propose three approximation methods that reduce the computational demand of LRP, and at the same time, allow for a straightforward extension to recursive partitioning algorithms that do not have a variable selection bias and can reach the global optimum solution. In the three proposed approximations, a mixed-effects model is fit to the full data, and the growth curve coefficients for each individual are extracted. Then, (1) a principal component analysis is fit to the set of coefficients and the principal component score is extracted for each individual, (2) a one-factor model is fit to the coefficients and the factor score is extracted, or (3) the coefficients are summed. The three methods result in each individual having a single score that represents the growth curve trajectory. Therefore, now that the outcome is a single score for each individual, any tree-based method may be used for partitioning the data and group the individuals together. Once the individuals are assigned to their final nodes, a mixed-effects model is fit to each terminal node with the individuals belonging to it.
I conduct a simulation study, where I show that the approximation methods achieve the goals proposed while maintaining a similar level of out-of-sample prediction accuracy as LRP. I then illustrate and compare the methods using an applied data.
I conduct a simulation study, where I show that the approximation methods achieve the goals proposed while maintaining a similar level of out-of-sample prediction accuracy as LRP. I then illustrate and compare the methods using an applied data.
ContributorsStegmann, Gabriela (Author) / Grimm, Kevin (Thesis advisor) / Edwards, Michael (Committee member) / MacKinnon, David (Committee member) / McNeish, Daniel (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
Description
There is a need to reinvent evidence-based interventions (EBIs) for pediatric anxiety problems to better address the demands of real-word service delivery settings and achieve public health impact. The time- and resource-intensive nature of most EBIs for youth anxiety has frequently been noted as a barrier to the utilization of EBIs in community settings, leading to increased attention towards exploring the viability of briefer, more accessible protocols. Principally, this research reports between-group effect sizes from brief-interventions targeting pediatric anxiety and classifies each as well-established, probably efficacious, possibly efficacious, experimental, or questionable. brief interventions yielded an overall mean effect size of 0.19 on pediatric anxiety outcomes from pre to post. Effect sizes varied significantly by level of intervention: Pre to post-intervention effects were strongest for brief-treatments (0.35), followed by brief-targeted prevention (0.22), and weakest for brief-universal prevention (0.09). No participant or other intervention characteristic emerged as significant moderators of effect sizes. In terms of standard of evidence, one brief intervention is well-established, and five are probably efficacious, with most drawing on cognitive and behavioral change procedures and/or family systems models. At this juncture, the minimal intervention needed for clinical change in pediatric anxiety points to in-vivo exposures for specific phobias (~3 hours), cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) with social skills training (~3 hours), and CBT based parent training (~6 hours, eight digital modules with clinician support). This research concludes with a discussion on limitations to available brief EBIs, practice guidelines, and future research needed to capitalize on the viability of briefer protocols in enhancing access to, and impact of, evidence-based care in the real-world.
ContributorsStoll, Ryan (Author) / Pina, Armando A. (Thesis advisor) / Gonzales, Nancy (Committee member) / MacKinnon, David (Committee member) / Perez, Marisol (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
Description
Anthropogenic land use has irrevocably transformed the natural systems on which humankind relies. Understanding where, why, and how social and economic processes drive globally-important land-use changes, from deforestation to urbanization, has advanced substantially. Illicit and clandestine activities--behavior that is intentionally secret because it breaks formal laws or violates informal norms--are poorly understood, however, despite the recognition of their significant role in land change. This dissertation fills this lacuna by studying illicit and clandestine activity and quantifying its influence on land-use patterns through examining informal urbanization in Mexico City and deforestation Central America. The first chapter introduces the topic, presenting a framework to examine illicit transactions in land systems. The second chapter uses data from interviews with actors involved with land development in Mexico City, demonstrating how economic and political payoffs explain the persistence of four types of informal urban expansion. The third chapter examines how electoral politics influence informal urban expansion and land titling in Mexico City using panel regression. Results show land title distribution increases just before elections, and more titles are extended to loyal voters of the dominant party in power. Urban expansion increases with electoral competition in local elections for borough chiefs and legislators. The fourth chapter tests and confirms the hypothesis that narcotrafficking has a causal effect on forest loss in Central America from 2001-2016 using two proxies of narcoactivity: drug seizures and events from media reports. The fifth chapter explores the spatial signature and pattern of informal urban development. It uses a typology of urban informality identified in chapter two to hypothesize and demonstrate distinct urban expansion patterns from satellite imagery. The sixth and final chapter summarizes the role of illicit and clandestine activity in shaping deforestation and urban expansion through illegal economies, electoral politics, and other informal transactions. Measures of illicit and clandestine activity should--and could--be incorporated into land change models to account for a wider range of relevant causes. This dissertation shines a new light on the previously hidden processes behind ever-easier to detect land-use patterns as earth observing satellites increase spatial and temporal resolution.
ContributorsTellman, Elizabeth (Author) / Turner II, Billie L (Thesis advisor) / Eakin, Hallie (Thesis advisor) / Janssen, Marco (Committee member) / Alba, Felipe de (Committee member) / Jain, Meha (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
Description
Evidence from the 20th century demonstrated that early life stress (ELS) produces long lasting neuroendocrine and behavioral effects related to an increased vulnerability towards psychiatric illnesses such as major depressive disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder, schizophrenia, and substance use disorder. Substance use disorders (SUDs) are complex neurological and behavioral psychiatric illnesses. The development, maintenance, and relapse of SUDs involve multiple brain systems and are affected by many variables, including socio-economic and genetic factors. Pre-clinical studies demonstrate that ELS affects many of the same systems, such as the reward circuitry and executive function involved with addiction-like behaviors. Previous research has focused on cocaine, ethanol, opiates, and amphetamine, while few studies have investigated ELS and methamphetamine (METH) vulnerability. METH is a highly addictive psychostimulant that when abused, has deleterious effects on the user and society. However, a critical unanswered question remains; how do early life experiences modulate both neural systems and behavior in adulthood? The emerging field of neuroepigenetics provides a potential answer to this question. Methyl CpG binding protein 2 (MeCP2), an epigenetic tag, has emerged as one possible mediator between initial drug use and the transition to addiction. Additionally, there are various neural systems that undergo long lasting epigenetics changes after ELS, such as the response of the hypothalamo-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis to stressors. Despite this, little attention has been given to the interactions between ELS, epigenetics, and addiction vulnerability. The studies described herein investigated the effects of ELS on METH self-administration (SA) in adult male rats. Next, we investigated the effects of ELS and METH SA on MeCP2 expression in the nucleus accumbens and dorsal striatum. Additionally, we investigated the effects of virally-mediated knockdown of MeCP2 expression in the nucleus accumbens core on METH SA, motivation to obtain METH under conditions of increasing behavioral demand, and reinstatement of METH-seeking in rats with and without a history of ELS. The results of these studies provide insights into potential epigenetic mechanisms by which ELS can produce an increased vulnerability to addiction in adulthood. Moreover, these studies shed light on possible novel molecular targets for treating addiction in individuals with a history of ELS.
ContributorsLewis, Candace (Author) / Olive, M. Foster (Thesis advisor) / Hammer, Ronald (Committee member) / Neisewander, Janet (Committee member) / Sanabria, Federico (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
Positive alcohol outcome expectancies (AOEs) are consistent longitudinal predictors of later alcohol use; however, exclusion of solitary drinking contexts in the measurement of AOEs may have resulted in an underestimation of the importance of low arousal positive (LAP) effects. The current study aimed to clarify the literature on the association between AOEs and drinking outcomes by examining the role of drinking context in AOE measurement. Further, exclusion of contextual influences has also limited understanding of the unique effects of AOEs relative to subjective responses (SR) to alcohol. The present study addressed this important question by exploring relations between AOEs and SR when drinking context was held constant across parallel measures of these constructs. Understanding which of these factors drives relations between alcohol effects and drinking behavior has important implications for intervention. After conducting confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and tests of measurement invariance for the AOE and SR measures, 4 aims collectively examined the role of context in reporting of AOEs (Aims 1 and 2), the extent to which context specific AOEs uniquely relate to drinking outcomes (Aim 3), and the importance of context effects on correspondence between AOEs and SR (Aim 4). Results of Aims 1 and 2 demonstrated that participants are imagining contexts when reporting on measures of AOEs that do not specify the context, and found significant mean differences in high and low arousal positive AOEs across contexts. Contrary to the hypotheses of Aim 3, context-specific AOEs were not significantly associated with drinking behavior. Results of Aim 4 indicated that while LAP AOEs for both unspecified and solitary contexts were associated with LAP SR in a solitary setting, unspecified context AOEs had a stronger relation than the solitary context AOEs. No significant relations between high arousal positive (HAP) AOEs and HAP SR emerged. The findings suggest that further investigation of the relation between context-specific AOEs and drinking outcomes/SR is warranted. Future studies of these hypotheses in samples with a wider range of drinking behavior, or at different stages of alcohol involvement, will elucidate whether mean level differences in context specific AOEs are important in understanding alcohol related outcomes.
ContributorsScott, Caitlin (Author) / Corbin, William (Thesis advisor) / MacKinnon, David (Committee member) / Barrera, Manuel (Committee member) / Chassin, Laurie (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
Recent advances in hierarchical or multilevel statistical models and causal inference using the potential outcomes framework hold tremendous promise for mock and real jury research. These advances enable researchers to explore how individual jurors can exert a bottom-up effect on the jury’s verdict and how case-level features can exert a top-down effect on a juror’s perception of the parties at trial. This dissertation explains and then applies these technical advances to a pre-existing mock jury dataset to provide worked examples in an effort to spur the adoption of these techniques. In particular, the paper introduces two new cross-level mediated effects and then describes how to conduct ecological validity tests with these mediated effects. The first cross-level mediated effect, the a1b1 mediated effect, is the juror level mediated effect for a jury level manipulation. The second cross-level mediated effect, the a2bc mediated effect, is the unique contextual effect that being in a jury has on the individual the juror. When a mock jury study includes a deliberation versus non-deliberation manipulation, the a1b1 can be compared for the two conditions, enabling a general test of ecological validity. If deliberating in a group generally influences the individual, then the two indirect effects should be significantly different. The a2bc can also be interpreted as a specific test of how much changes in jury level means of this specific mediator effect juror level decision-making.
ContributorsLovis-McMahon, David (Author) / Schweitzer, Nicholas (Thesis advisor) / Saks, Michael (Thesis advisor) / Salerno, Jessica (Committee member) / MacKinnon, David (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
Variability in subjective response to alcohol has been shown to predict drinking behavior as well as the development of alcohol use disorders. The current study examined the extent to which individual differences in alcohol pharmacokinetics impact subjective response and drinking behavior during a single session alcohol administration paradigm. Participants (N = 98) completed measures of subjective response at two time points following alcohol consumption. Pharmacokinetic properties (rate of absorption and metabolism) were inferred using multiple BAC readings to calculate the area under the curve during the ascending limb for absorption and descending limb for metabolism. Following the completion of the subjective response measures, an ad-libitum taste rating task was implemented in which participants were permitted to consume additional alcoholic beverages. The amount consumed during the taste rating task served as the primary outcome variable. Results of the study indicated that participants who metabolized alcohol more quickly maintained a greater level of subjective stimulation as blood alcohol levels declined and reported greater reductions in subjective sedation. Although metabolism did not have a direct influence on within session alcohol consumption, a faster metabolism did relate to increased ad-libitum consumption indirectly through greater acute tolerance to sedative effects and greater maintenance of stimulant effects. Rate of absorption did not significantly predict subjective response or within session drinking. The results of the study add clarity to theories of subjective response to alcohol, and suggest that those at highest risk for alcohol problems experience a more rapid reduction in sedation following alcohol consumption while simultaneously experiencing heightened levels of stimulation. Variability in pharmacokinetics, namely how quickly one metabolizes alcohol, may be an identifiable biomarker of subjective response and may be used to infer risk for alcohol problems.
ContributorsBoyd, Stephen (Author) / Corbin, William R. (Thesis advisor) / Chassin, Laurie (Committee member) / MacKinnon, David (Committee member) / Olive, Michael Foster (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
The present study utilized longitudinal data from a high-risk community sample (n=254, 52.8% female, 47.2% children of alcoholics, 74% non-Hispanic Caucasian) to test questions concerning the effects of genetic risk, parental knowledge, and peer substance use on emerging adult substance use disorders (SUDs). Specifically, this study examined whether parental knowledge and peer substance use mediated the effects of parent alcohol use disorder (AUD) and genetic risk for behavioral undercontrol on SUD. The current study also examined whether genetic risk moderated effects of parental knowledge and peer substance use on risk for SUD. Finally, this study examined these questions over and above a genetic "control" which explained a large proportion of variance in the outcome, thereby providing a stricter test of environmental influences.
Analyses were performed in a path analysis framework. To test these research questions, the current study employed two polygenic risk scores. The first, a theory-based score, was formed using single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from receptor systems implicated in the amplification of positive effects in the presence of new/exciting stimuli and/or pleasure derived from using substances. The second, an empirically-based score, was formed using a data-driven approach that explained a large amount of variance in SUDs. Together, these scores allowed the present study to test explanations for the relations among parent AUD, parental knowledge, peer substance use, and SUDs.
Results of the current study found that having parents with less knowledge or an AUD conferred greater risk for SUDs, but only for those at higher genetic risk for behavioral undercontrol. The current study replicated research findings suggesting that peer substance use mediated the effect of parental AUD on SUD. However, it adds to this literature by suggesting that some mechanism other than increased behavioral undercontrol explains relations among parental AUD, peer substance use, and emerging adult SUD. Taken together, these findings indicate that children of parents with AUDs comprise a particularly risky group, although likelihood of SUD within this group is not uniform. These findings also suggest that some of the most important environmental risk factors for SUDs exert effects that vary across level of genetic propensity.
Analyses were performed in a path analysis framework. To test these research questions, the current study employed two polygenic risk scores. The first, a theory-based score, was formed using single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from receptor systems implicated in the amplification of positive effects in the presence of new/exciting stimuli and/or pleasure derived from using substances. The second, an empirically-based score, was formed using a data-driven approach that explained a large amount of variance in SUDs. Together, these scores allowed the present study to test explanations for the relations among parent AUD, parental knowledge, peer substance use, and SUDs.
Results of the current study found that having parents with less knowledge or an AUD conferred greater risk for SUDs, but only for those at higher genetic risk for behavioral undercontrol. The current study replicated research findings suggesting that peer substance use mediated the effect of parental AUD on SUD. However, it adds to this literature by suggesting that some mechanism other than increased behavioral undercontrol explains relations among parental AUD, peer substance use, and emerging adult SUD. Taken together, these findings indicate that children of parents with AUDs comprise a particularly risky group, although likelihood of SUD within this group is not uniform. These findings also suggest that some of the most important environmental risk factors for SUDs exert effects that vary across level of genetic propensity.
ContributorsBountress, Kaitlin (Author) / Chassin, Laurie (Thesis advisor) / Crnic, Keith (Committee member) / Lemery-Chalfant, Kathryn (Committee member) / MacKinnon, David (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
This dissertation examines the various factors and processes that have been proposed as explanations for the spread of agriculture in the west Mediterranean. The expansion of the Neolithic in the west Mediterranean (the Impresso-Cardial Neolithic) is characterized by a rapid spread of agricultural subsistence and material culture from the southern portion of the Italian peninsula to the western coast of the Iberian peninsula. To address this unique case, four conceptual models of Neolithic spread have been proposed: the Wave of Advance, the Capillary Spread Model, the Maritime Pioneer Colonization Model and the Dual Model. An agent-based model, the Cardial Spread Model, was built to simulate each conceptual spread model in a spatially explicit environment for comparison with evidence from the archaeological record. Chronological information detailing the arrival of the Neolithic was used to create a map of the initial arrival of the Neolithic (a chronosurface) throughout the study area. The results of each conceptual spread model were then compared to the chronosurface in order to evaluate the relative performance of each conceptual model of spread. These experiments suggest that both the Dual and Maritime Pioneer Colonization models best fit the available chronological and spatial distribution of the Impresso-Cardial Neolithic.
For the purpose of informing agent movement and improving the fit of the conceptual spread models, a variety of paleoenvironmental maps were tested within the Cardial Spread Model. The outcome of these experiments suggests that topographic slope was an important factor in settlement location and that rivers were important vectors of transportation for early Neolithic migration. This research demonstrates the application of techniques rare to archaeological analysis, agent-based modeling and the inclusion of paleoenvironmental information, and provides a valuable tool that future researchers can utilize to further evaluate and fabricate new models of Neolithic expansion.
For the purpose of informing agent movement and improving the fit of the conceptual spread models, a variety of paleoenvironmental maps were tested within the Cardial Spread Model. The outcome of these experiments suggests that topographic slope was an important factor in settlement location and that rivers were important vectors of transportation for early Neolithic migration. This research demonstrates the application of techniques rare to archaeological analysis, agent-based modeling and the inclusion of paleoenvironmental information, and provides a valuable tool that future researchers can utilize to further evaluate and fabricate new models of Neolithic expansion.
ContributorsBergin, Sean M (Author) / Barton, Michael (Thesis advisor) / Janssen, Marco (Committee member) / Coudart, Anick (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
The closer integration of the world economy has yielded many positive benefits including the worldwide diffusion of innovative technologies and efficiency gains following the widening of international markets. However, closer integration also has negative consequences. Specifically, I focus on the ecology and economics of the spread of species and pathogens. I approach the problem using theoretical and applied models in ecology and economics. First, I use a multi-species theoretical network model to evaluate the ability of dispersal to maintain system-level biodiversity and productivity. I then extend this analysis to consider the effects of dispersal in a coupled social-ecological system where people derive benefits from species. Finally, I estimate an empirical model of the foot and mouth disease risks of trade. By combining outbreak and trade data I estimate the disease risks associated with the international trade in live animals while controlling for the biosecurity measures in place in importing countries and the presence of wild reservoirs. I find that the risks associated with the spread and dispersal of species may be positive or negative, but that this relationship depends on the ecological and economic components of the system and the interactions between them.
ContributorsShanafelt, David William (Author) / Perrings, Charles (Thesis advisor) / Fenichel, Eli (Committee member) / Richards, Timorthy (Committee member) / Janssen, Marco (Committee member) / Collins, James (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016