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- Creators: Department of Psychology
- Creators: Ira A. Fulton Schools of Engineering
- Resource Type: Text
- Status: Published
Description
The main objective of this research is to develop an integrated method to study emergent behavior and consequences of evolution and adaptation in engineered complex adaptive systems (ECASs). A multi-layer conceptual framework and modeling approach including behavioral and structural aspects is provided to describe the structure of a class of engineered complex systems and predict their future adaptive patterns. The approach allows the examination of complexity in the structure and the behavior of components as a result of their connections and in relation to their environment. This research describes and uses the major differences of natural complex adaptive systems (CASs) with artificial/engineered CASs to build a framework and platform for ECAS. While this framework focuses on the critical factors of an engineered system, it also enables one to synthetically employ engineering and mathematical models to analyze and measure complexity in such systems. In this way concepts of complex systems science are adapted to management science and system of systems engineering. In particular an integrated consumer-based optimization and agent-based modeling (ABM) platform is presented that enables managers to predict and partially control patterns of behaviors in ECASs. Demonstrated on the U.S. electricity markets, ABM is integrated with normative and subjective decision behavior recommended by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). The approach integrates social networks, social science, complexity theory, and diffusion theory. Furthermore, it has unique and significant contribution in exploring and representing concrete managerial insights for ECASs and offering new optimized actions and modeling paradigms in agent-based simulation.
ContributorsHaghnevis, Moeed (Author) / Askin, Ronald G. (Thesis advisor) / Armbruster, Dieter (Thesis advisor) / Mirchandani, Pitu (Committee member) / Wu, Tong (Committee member) / Hedman, Kory (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
With the rapid development of mobile sensing technologies like GPS, RFID, sensors in smartphones, etc., capturing position data in the form of trajectories has become easy. Moving object trajectory analysis is a growing area of interest these days owing to its applications in various domains such as marketing, security, traffic monitoring and management, etc. To better understand movement behaviors from the raw mobility data, this doctoral work provides analytic models for analyzing trajectory data. As a first contribution, a model is developed to detect changes in trajectories with time. If the taxis moving in a city are viewed as sensors that provide real time information of the traffic in the city, a change in these trajectories with time can reveal that the road network has changed. To detect changes, trajectories are modeled with a Hidden Markov Model (HMM). A modified training algorithm, for parameter estimation in HMM, called m-BaumWelch, is used to develop likelihood estimates under assumed changes and used to detect changes in trajectory data with time. Data from vehicles are used to test the method for change detection. Secondly, sequential pattern mining is used to develop a model to detect changes in frequent patterns occurring in trajectory data. The aim is to answer two questions: Are the frequent patterns still frequent in the new data? If they are frequent, has the time interval distribution in the pattern changed? Two different approaches are considered for change detection, frequency-based approach and distribution-based approach. The methods are illustrated with vehicle trajectory data. Finally, a model is developed for clustering and outlier detection in semantic trajectories. A challenge with clustering semantic trajectories is that both numeric and categorical attributes are present. Another problem to be addressed while clustering is that trajectories can be of different lengths and also have missing values. A tree-based ensemble is used to address these problems. The approach is extended to outlier detection in semantic trajectories.
ContributorsKondaveeti, Anirudh (Author) / Runger, George C. (Thesis advisor) / Mirchandani, Pitu (Committee member) / Pan, Rong (Committee member) / Maciejewski, Ross (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
This research develops heuristics for scheduling electric power production amid uncertainty. Reliability is becoming more difficult to manage due to growing uncertainty from renewable resources. This challenge is compounded by the risk of resource outages, which can occur any time and without warning. Stochastic optimization is a promising tool but remains computationally intractable for large systems. The models used in industry instead schedule for the forecast and withhold generation reserve for scenario response, but they are blind to how this reserve may be constrained by network congestion. This dissertation investigates more effective heuristics to improve economics and reliability in power systems where congestion is a concern.
Two general approaches are developed. Both approximate the effects of recourse decisions without actually solving a stochastic model. The first approach procures more reserve whenever approximate recourse policies stress the transmission network. The second approach procures reserve at prime locations by generalizing the existing practice of reserve disqualification. The latter approach is applied for feasibility and is later extended to limit scenario costs. Testing demonstrates expected cost improvements around 0.5%-1.0% for the IEEE 73-bus test case, which can translate to millions of dollars per year even for modest systems. The heuristics developed in this dissertation perform somewhere between established deterministic and stochastic models: providing an economic benefit over current practices without substantially increasing computational times.
Two general approaches are developed. Both approximate the effects of recourse decisions without actually solving a stochastic model. The first approach procures more reserve whenever approximate recourse policies stress the transmission network. The second approach procures reserve at prime locations by generalizing the existing practice of reserve disqualification. The latter approach is applied for feasibility and is later extended to limit scenario costs. Testing demonstrates expected cost improvements around 0.5%-1.0% for the IEEE 73-bus test case, which can translate to millions of dollars per year even for modest systems. The heuristics developed in this dissertation perform somewhere between established deterministic and stochastic models: providing an economic benefit over current practices without substantially increasing computational times.
ContributorsLyon, Joshua Daniel (Author) / Zhang, Muhong (Thesis advisor) / Hedman, Kory W (Thesis advisor) / Askin, Ronald G. (Committee member) / Mirchandani, Pitu (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
Today's competitive markets force companies to constantly engage in the complex task of managing their demand. In make-to-order manufacturing or service systems, the demand of a product is shaped by price and lead times, where high price and lead time quotes ensure profitability for supplier, but discourage the customers from placing orders. Low price and lead times, on the other hand, generally result in high demand, but do not necessarily ensure profitability. The price and lead time quotation problem considers the trade-off between offering high and low prices and lead times. The recent practices in make-to- order manufacturing companies reveal the importance of dynamic quotation strategies, under which the prices and lead time quotes flexibly change depending on the status of the system. In this dissertation, the objective is to model a make-to-order manufacturing system and explore various aspects of dynamic quotation strategies such as the behavior of optimal price and lead time decisions, the impact of customer preferences on optimal decisions, the benefits of employing dynamic quotation in comparison to simpler quotation strategies, and the benefits of coordinating price and lead time decisions. I first consider a manufacturer that receives demand from spot purchasers (who are quoted dynamic price and lead times), as well as from contract customers who have agree- ments with the manufacturer with fixed price and lead time terms. I analyze how customer preferences affect the optimal price and lead time decisions, the benefits of dynamic quo- tation, and the optimal mix of spot purchaser and contract customers. These analyses necessitate the computation of expected tardiness of customer orders at the moment cus- tomer enters the system. Hence, in the second part of the dissertation, I develop method- ologies to compute the expected tardiness in multi-class priority queues. For the trivial single class case, a closed formulation is obtained. For the more complex multi-class case, numerical inverse Laplace transformation algorithms are developed. In the last part of the dissertation, I model a decentralized system with two components. Marketing department determines the price quotes with the objective of maximizing revenues, and manufacturing department determines the lead time quotes to minimize lateness costs. I discuss the ben- efits of coordinating price and lead time decisions, and develop an incentivization scheme to reduce the negative impacts of lack of coordination.
ContributorsHafizoglu, Ahmet Baykal (Author) / Gel, Esma S (Thesis advisor) / Villalobos, Jesus R (Committee member) / Mirchandani, Pitu (Committee member) / Keskinocak, Pinar (Committee member) / Runger, George C. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
Healthcare operations have enjoyed reduced costs, improved patient safety, and
innovation in healthcare policy over a huge variety of applications by tackling prob-
lems via the creation and optimization of descriptive mathematical models to guide
decision-making. Despite these accomplishments, models are stylized representations
of real-world applications, reliant on accurate estimations from historical data to jus-
tify their underlying assumptions. To protect against unreliable estimations which
can adversely affect the decisions generated from applications dependent on fully-
realized models, techniques that are robust against misspecications are utilized while
still making use of incoming data for learning. Hence, new robust techniques are ap-
plied that (1) allow for the decision-maker to express a spectrum of pessimism against
model uncertainties while (2) still utilizing incoming data for learning. Two main ap-
plications are investigated with respect to these goals, the first being a percentile
optimization technique with respect to a multi-class queueing system for application
in hospital Emergency Departments. The second studies the use of robust forecasting
techniques in improving developing countries’ vaccine supply chains via (1) an inno-
vative outside of cold chain policy and (2) a district-managed approach to inventory
control. Both of these research application areas utilize data-driven approaches that
feature learning and pessimism-controlled robustness.
innovation in healthcare policy over a huge variety of applications by tackling prob-
lems via the creation and optimization of descriptive mathematical models to guide
decision-making. Despite these accomplishments, models are stylized representations
of real-world applications, reliant on accurate estimations from historical data to jus-
tify their underlying assumptions. To protect against unreliable estimations which
can adversely affect the decisions generated from applications dependent on fully-
realized models, techniques that are robust against misspecications are utilized while
still making use of incoming data for learning. Hence, new robust techniques are ap-
plied that (1) allow for the decision-maker to express a spectrum of pessimism against
model uncertainties while (2) still utilizing incoming data for learning. Two main ap-
plications are investigated with respect to these goals, the first being a percentile
optimization technique with respect to a multi-class queueing system for application
in hospital Emergency Departments. The second studies the use of robust forecasting
techniques in improving developing countries’ vaccine supply chains via (1) an inno-
vative outside of cold chain policy and (2) a district-managed approach to inventory
control. Both of these research application areas utilize data-driven approaches that
feature learning and pessimism-controlled robustness.
ContributorsBren, Austin (Author) / Saghafian, Soroush (Thesis advisor) / Mirchandani, Pitu (Thesis advisor) / Wu, Teresa (Committee member) / Pan, Rong (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
The energy consumption by public drinking water and wastewater utilities represent up to 30%-40% of a municipality energy bill. The largest energy consumption is used to operate motors for pumping. As a result, the engineering and control community develop the Variable Speed Pumps (VSPs) which allow for regulating valves in the network instead of the traditional binary ON/OFF pumps. Potentially, VSPs save up to 90% of annual energy cost compared to the binary pump. The control problem has been tackled in the literature as “Pump Scheduling Optimization” (PSO) with a main focus on the cost minimization. Nonetheless, engineering literature is mostly concerned with the problem of understanding “healthy working conditions” (e.g., leakages, breakages) for a water infrastructure rather than the costs. This is very critical because if we operate a network under stress, it may satisfy the demand at present but will likely hinder network functionality in the future.
This research addresses the problem of analyzing working conditions of large water systems by means of a detailed hydraulic simulation model (e.g., EPANet) to gain insights into feasibility with respect to pressure, tank level, etc. This work presents a new framework called Feasible Set Approximation – Probabilistic Branch and Bound (FSA-PBnB) for the definition and determination of feasible solutions in terms of pumps regulation. We propose the concept of feasibility distance, which is measured as the distance of the current solution from the feasibility frontier to estimate the distribution of the feasibility values across the solution space. Based on this estimate, pruning the infeasible regions and maintaining the feasible regions are proposed to identify the desired feasible solutions. We test the proposed algorithm with both theoretical and real water networks. The results demonstrate that FSA-PBnB has the capability to identify the feasibility profile in an efficient way. Additionally, with the feasibility distance, we can understand the quality of sub-region in terms of feasibility.
The present work provides a basic feasibility determination framework on the low dimension problems. When FSA-PBnB extends to large scale constraint optimization problems, a more intelligent sampling method may be developed to further reduce the computational effort.
This research addresses the problem of analyzing working conditions of large water systems by means of a detailed hydraulic simulation model (e.g., EPANet) to gain insights into feasibility with respect to pressure, tank level, etc. This work presents a new framework called Feasible Set Approximation – Probabilistic Branch and Bound (FSA-PBnB) for the definition and determination of feasible solutions in terms of pumps regulation. We propose the concept of feasibility distance, which is measured as the distance of the current solution from the feasibility frontier to estimate the distribution of the feasibility values across the solution space. Based on this estimate, pruning the infeasible regions and maintaining the feasible regions are proposed to identify the desired feasible solutions. We test the proposed algorithm with both theoretical and real water networks. The results demonstrate that FSA-PBnB has the capability to identify the feasibility profile in an efficient way. Additionally, with the feasibility distance, we can understand the quality of sub-region in terms of feasibility.
The present work provides a basic feasibility determination framework on the low dimension problems. When FSA-PBnB extends to large scale constraint optimization problems, a more intelligent sampling method may be developed to further reduce the computational effort.
ContributorsTsai, Yi-An (Author) / Pedrielli, Giulia (Thesis advisor) / Mirchandani, Pitu (Committee member) / Mascaro, Giuseppe (Committee member) / Zabinsky, Zelda (Committee member) / Candelieri, Antonio (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
Recently, automation, shared use, and electrification are proposed and viewed as the “three revolutions” in the future transportation sector to significantly relieve traffic congestion, reduce pollutant emissions, and increase transportation system sustainability. Motivated by the three revolutions, this research targets on the passenger-focused scheduled transportation systems, where (1) the public transit systems provide high-quality ridesharing schedules/services and (2) the upcoming optimal activity planning systems offer the best vehicle routing and assignment for household daily scheduled activities.
The high quality of system observability is the fundamental guarantee for accurately predicting and controlling the system. The rich information from the emerging heterogeneous data sources is making it possible. This research proposes a modeling framework to systemically account for the multi-source sensor information in urban transit systems to quantify the estimated state uncertainty. A system of linear equations and inequalities is proposed to generate the information space. Also, the observation errors are further considered by a least square model. Then, a number of projection functions are introduced to match the relation between the unique information space and different system states, and its corresponding state estimate uncertainties are further quantified by calculating its maximum state range.
In addition to optimizing daily operations, the continuing advances in information technology provide precious individual travel behavior data and trip information for operational planning in transit systems. This research also proposes a new alternative modeling framework to systemically account for boundedly rational decision rules of travelers in a dynamic transit service network with tight capacity constraints. An agent-based single-level integer linear formulation is proposed and can be effectively by the Lagrangian decomposition.
The recently emerging trend of self-driving vehicles and information sharing technologies starts creating a revolutionary paradigm shift for traveler mobility applications. By considering a deterministic traveler decision making framework, this research addresses the challenges of how to optimally schedule household members’ daily scheduled activities under the complex household-level activity constraints by proposing a set of integer linear programming models. Meanwhile, in the microscopic car-following level, the trajectory optimization of autonomous vehicles is also studied by proposing a binary integer programming model.
The high quality of system observability is the fundamental guarantee for accurately predicting and controlling the system. The rich information from the emerging heterogeneous data sources is making it possible. This research proposes a modeling framework to systemically account for the multi-source sensor information in urban transit systems to quantify the estimated state uncertainty. A system of linear equations and inequalities is proposed to generate the information space. Also, the observation errors are further considered by a least square model. Then, a number of projection functions are introduced to match the relation between the unique information space and different system states, and its corresponding state estimate uncertainties are further quantified by calculating its maximum state range.
In addition to optimizing daily operations, the continuing advances in information technology provide precious individual travel behavior data and trip information for operational planning in transit systems. This research also proposes a new alternative modeling framework to systemically account for boundedly rational decision rules of travelers in a dynamic transit service network with tight capacity constraints. An agent-based single-level integer linear formulation is proposed and can be effectively by the Lagrangian decomposition.
The recently emerging trend of self-driving vehicles and information sharing technologies starts creating a revolutionary paradigm shift for traveler mobility applications. By considering a deterministic traveler decision making framework, this research addresses the challenges of how to optimally schedule household members’ daily scheduled activities under the complex household-level activity constraints by proposing a set of integer linear programming models. Meanwhile, in the microscopic car-following level, the trajectory optimization of autonomous vehicles is also studied by proposing a binary integer programming model.
ContributorsLiu, Jiangtao (Author) / Zhou, Xuesong (Thesis advisor) / Pendyala, Ram (Committee member) / Mirchandani, Pitu (Committee member) / Lou, Yingyan (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
I study the problem of locating Relay nodes (RN) to improve the connectivity of a set
of already deployed sensor nodes (SN) in a Wireless Sensor Network (WSN). This is
known as the Relay Node Placement Problem (RNPP). In this problem, one or more
nodes called Base Stations (BS) serve as the collection point of all the information
captured by SNs. SNs have limited transmission range and hence signals are transmitted
from the SNs to the BS through multi-hop routing. As a result, the WSN
is said to be connected if there exists a path for from each SN to the BS through
which signals can be hopped. The communication range of each node is modeled
with a disk of known radius such that two nodes are said to communicate if their
communication disks overlap. The goal is to locate a given number of RNs anywhere
in the continuous space of the WSN to maximize the number of SNs connected (i.e.,
maximize the network connectivity). To solve this problem, I propose an integer
programming based approach that iteratively approximates the Euclidean distance
needed to enforce sensor communication. This is achieved through a cutting-plane
approach with a polynomial-time separation algorithm that identies distance violations.
I illustrate the use of my algorithm on large-scale instances of up to 75 nodes
which can be solved in less than 60 minutes. The proposed method shows solutions
times many times faster than an alternative nonlinear formulation.
of already deployed sensor nodes (SN) in a Wireless Sensor Network (WSN). This is
known as the Relay Node Placement Problem (RNPP). In this problem, one or more
nodes called Base Stations (BS) serve as the collection point of all the information
captured by SNs. SNs have limited transmission range and hence signals are transmitted
from the SNs to the BS through multi-hop routing. As a result, the WSN
is said to be connected if there exists a path for from each SN to the BS through
which signals can be hopped. The communication range of each node is modeled
with a disk of known radius such that two nodes are said to communicate if their
communication disks overlap. The goal is to locate a given number of RNs anywhere
in the continuous space of the WSN to maximize the number of SNs connected (i.e.,
maximize the network connectivity). To solve this problem, I propose an integer
programming based approach that iteratively approximates the Euclidean distance
needed to enforce sensor communication. This is achieved through a cutting-plane
approach with a polynomial-time separation algorithm that identies distance violations.
I illustrate the use of my algorithm on large-scale instances of up to 75 nodes
which can be solved in less than 60 minutes. The proposed method shows solutions
times many times faster than an alternative nonlinear formulation.
ContributorsSurendran, Vishal Sairam Jaitra (Author) / Sefair, Jorge (Thesis advisor) / Mirchandani, Pitu (Committee member) / Grubesic, Anthony (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
Description
Many factors are at play within the genome of an organism, contributing to much of the diversity and variation across the tree of life. While the genome is generally encoded by four nucleotides, A, C, T, and G, this code can be expanded. One particular mechanism that we examine in this thesis is modification of bases—more specifically, methylation of Adenine (m6A) within the GATC motif of Escherichia coli. These methylated adenines are especially important in a process called methyl-directed mismatch repair (MMR), a pathway responsible for repairing errors in the DNA sequence produced by replication. In this pathway, methylated adenines identify the parent strand and direct the repair proteins to correct the erroneous base in the daughter strand. While the primary role of methylated adenines at GATC sites is to direct the MMR pathway, this methylation has also been found to affect other processes, such as gene expression, the activity of transposable elements, and the timing of DNA replication. However, in the absence of MMR, the ability of these other processes to maintain adenine methylation and its targets is unknown.
To determine if the disruption of the MMR pathway results in the reduced conservation of methylated adenines as well as an increased tolerance for mutations that result in the loss or gain of new GATC sites, we surveyed individual clones isolated from experimentally evolving wild-type and MMR-deficient (mutL- ;conferring an 150x increase in mutation rate) populations of E. coli with whole-genome sequencing. Initial analysis revealed a lack of mutations affecting methylation sites (GATC tetranucleotides) in wild-type clones. However, the inherent low mutation rates conferred by the wild-type background render this result inconclusive, due to a lack of statistical power, and reveal a need for a more direct measure of changes in methylation status. Thus as a first step to comparative methylomics, we benchmarked four different methylation-calling pipelines on three biological replicates of the wildtype progenitor strain for our evolved populations.
While it is understood that these methylated sites play a role in the MMR pathway, it is not fully understood the full extent of their effect on the genome. Thus the goal of this thesis was to better understand the forces which maintain the genome, specifically concerning m6A within the GATC motif.
To determine if the disruption of the MMR pathway results in the reduced conservation of methylated adenines as well as an increased tolerance for mutations that result in the loss or gain of new GATC sites, we surveyed individual clones isolated from experimentally evolving wild-type and MMR-deficient (mutL- ;conferring an 150x increase in mutation rate) populations of E. coli with whole-genome sequencing. Initial analysis revealed a lack of mutations affecting methylation sites (GATC tetranucleotides) in wild-type clones. However, the inherent low mutation rates conferred by the wild-type background render this result inconclusive, due to a lack of statistical power, and reveal a need for a more direct measure of changes in methylation status. Thus as a first step to comparative methylomics, we benchmarked four different methylation-calling pipelines on three biological replicates of the wildtype progenitor strain for our evolved populations.
While it is understood that these methylated sites play a role in the MMR pathway, it is not fully understood the full extent of their effect on the genome. Thus the goal of this thesis was to better understand the forces which maintain the genome, specifically concerning m6A within the GATC motif.
ContributorsBoyer, Gwyneth (Author) / Lynch, Michael (Thesis director) / Behringer, Megan (Committee member) / Geiler-Samerotte, Kerry (Committee member) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / Department of Psychology (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-05
Description
This paper emphasizes how vital prosthetic devices are as tools for both congenital and acquired amputees in order to maximize this population's level of societal productivity, but several issues exist with the current technological focus of development by the prosthetic industry that creates unnecessary hurdles that amputees must surpass in order to truly benefit from these tools. The first major issue is that these devices are not readily available to all amputees. The astronomical cost of most prosthetic devices is a variable that restricts low income amputee populations from obtaining these vital tools regardless of their level of need, thus highlighting the fact that amputees who are not financially stable are not supported in a fashion that is conducive to their success. Also, cost greatly affects children who suffer from a missing appendage due to the fact that they are in constant need of prosthetic replacement because of physical growth and development. Another issue with the current focus of the prosthetic industry is that it focuses on acquired amputees because this population is much larger in comparison to congenital amputees and thus more lucrative. Congenital amputees' particular needs are often entirely ignored in terms of prosthetic innovation. Finally, low daily utilization is a major issue amongst the amputee population. Several variables exist with the use of prosthetic devices that cause many amputees to decide against the utilization of these tools, like difficulty of use and lack of comfort. This paper will provide solutions to cost, discrimination, issues in development, and daily utilization by emphasizing on how lowering the cost through alternative designs and materials, transitioning the focus of technological development onto the entire amputee population rather than targeting the most lucrative group, and advancing the design in a fashion to which promotes daily utilization will provide the largest level of societal support, so that the amputee population as a whole can maximize their level of productivity in a manner that will allow this group to conquer the hardships that are introduced into their lives due to a missing appendage.
ContributorsO'Connor, Casey Charles (Author) / Popova, Laura (Thesis director) / Graff, Sarah (Committee member) / Department of Psychology (Contributor) / School of Social Work (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05