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Description
Diseases have been part of human life for generations and evolve within the population, sometimes dying out while other times becoming endemic or the cause of recurrent outbreaks. The long term influence of a disease stems from different dynamics within or between pathogen-host, that have been analyzed and studied by many researchers using mathematical models. Co-infection with different pathogens is common, yet little is known about how infection with one pathogen affects the host's immunological response to another. Moreover, no work has been found in the literature that considers the variability of the host immune health or that examines a disease at the population level and its corresponding interconnectedness with the host immune system. Knowing that the spread of the disease in the population starts at the individual level, this thesis explores how variability in immune system response within an endemic environment affects an individual's vulnerability, and how prone it is to co-infections. Immunology-based models of Malaria and Tuberculosis (TB) are constructed by extending and modifying existing mathematical models in the literature. The two are then combined to give a single nine-variable model of co-infection with Malaria and TB. Because these models are difficult to gain any insight analytically due to the large number of parameters, a phenomenological model of co-infection is proposed with subsystems corresponding to the individual immunology-based model of a single infection. Within this phenomenological model, the variability of the host immune health is also incorporated through three different pathogen response curves using nonlinear bounded Michaelis-Menten functions that describe the level or state of immune system (healthy, moderate and severely compromised). The immunology-based models of Malaria and TB give numerical results that agree with the biological observations. The Malaria--TB co-infection model gives reasonable results and these suggest that the order in which the two diseases are introduced have an impact on the behavior of both. The subsystems of the phenomenological models that correspond to a single infection (either of Malaria or TB) mimic much of the observed behavior of the immunology-based counterpart and can demonstrate different behavior depending on the chosen pathogen response curve. In addition, varying some of the parameters and initial conditions in the phenomenological model yields a range of topologically different mathematical behaviors, which suggests that this behavior may be able to be observed in the immunology-based models as well. The phenomenological models clearly replicate the qualitative behavior of primary and secondary infection as well as co-infection. The mathematical solutions of the models correspond to the fundamental states described by immunologists: virgin state, immune state and tolerance state. The phenomenological model of co-infection also demonstrates a range of parameter values and initial conditions in which the introduction of a second disease causes both diseases to grow without bound even though those same parameters and initial conditions did not yield unbounded growth in the corresponding subsystems. This results applies to all three states of the host immune system. In terms of the immunology-based system, this would suggest the following: there may be parameter values and initial conditions in which a person can clear Malaria or TB (separately) from their system but in which the presence of both can result in the person dying of one of the diseases. Finally, this thesis studies links between epidemiology (population level) and immunology in an effort to assess the impact of pathogen's spread within the population on the immune response of individuals. Models of Malaria and TB are proposed that incorporate the immune system of the host into a mathematical model of an epidemic at the population level.
ContributorsSoho, Edmé L (Author) / Wirkus, Stephen (Thesis advisor) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Thesis advisor) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
Mathematical models are important tools for addressing problems that exceed experimental capabilities. In this work, I present ordinary and partial differential equation (ODE, PDE) models for two problems: Vicodin abuse and impact cratering.
The prescription opioid Vicodin is the nation's most widely prescribed pain reliever. The majority of Vicodin abusers are first introduced via prescription, distinguishing it from other drugs in which the most common path to abuse begins with experimentation. I develop and analyze two mathematical models of Vicodin use and abuse, considering only those patients with an initial Vicodin prescription. Through adjoint sensitivity analysis, I show that focusing efforts on prevention rather than treatment has greater success at reducing the total population of abusers. I prove that solutions to each model exist, are unique, and are non-negative. I also derive conditions for which these solutions are asymptotically stable.
Verification and Validation (V&V) are necessary processes to ensure accuracy of computational methods. Simulations are essential for addressing impact cratering problems, because these problems often exceed experimental capabilities. I show that the Free Lagrange (FLAG) hydrocode, developed and maintained by Los Alamos National Laboratory, can be used for impact cratering simulations by verifying FLAG against two analytical models of aluminum-on-aluminum impacts at different impact velocities and validating FLAG against a glass-into-water laboratory impact experiment. My verification results show good agreement with the theoretical maximum pressures, and my mesh resolution study shows that FLAG converges at resolutions low enough to reduce the required computation time from about 28 hours to about 25 minutes.
Asteroid 16 Psyche is the largest M-type (metallic) asteroid in the Main Asteroid Belt. Radar albedo data indicate Psyche's surface is rich in metallic content, but estimates for Psyche's composition vary widely. Psyche has two large impact structures in its Southern hemisphere, with estimated diameters from 50 km to 70 km and estimated depths up to 6.4 km. I use the FLAG hydrocode to model the formation of the largest of these impact structures. My results indicate an oblique angle of impact rather than a vertical impact. These results also support previous claims that Psyche is metallic and porous.
The prescription opioid Vicodin is the nation's most widely prescribed pain reliever. The majority of Vicodin abusers are first introduced via prescription, distinguishing it from other drugs in which the most common path to abuse begins with experimentation. I develop and analyze two mathematical models of Vicodin use and abuse, considering only those patients with an initial Vicodin prescription. Through adjoint sensitivity analysis, I show that focusing efforts on prevention rather than treatment has greater success at reducing the total population of abusers. I prove that solutions to each model exist, are unique, and are non-negative. I also derive conditions for which these solutions are asymptotically stable.
Verification and Validation (V&V) are necessary processes to ensure accuracy of computational methods. Simulations are essential for addressing impact cratering problems, because these problems often exceed experimental capabilities. I show that the Free Lagrange (FLAG) hydrocode, developed and maintained by Los Alamos National Laboratory, can be used for impact cratering simulations by verifying FLAG against two analytical models of aluminum-on-aluminum impacts at different impact velocities and validating FLAG against a glass-into-water laboratory impact experiment. My verification results show good agreement with the theoretical maximum pressures, and my mesh resolution study shows that FLAG converges at resolutions low enough to reduce the required computation time from about 28 hours to about 25 minutes.
Asteroid 16 Psyche is the largest M-type (metallic) asteroid in the Main Asteroid Belt. Radar albedo data indicate Psyche's surface is rich in metallic content, but estimates for Psyche's composition vary widely. Psyche has two large impact structures in its Southern hemisphere, with estimated diameters from 50 km to 70 km and estimated depths up to 6.4 km. I use the FLAG hydrocode to model the formation of the largest of these impact structures. My results indicate an oblique angle of impact rather than a vertical impact. These results also support previous claims that Psyche is metallic and porous.
ContributorsCaldwell, Wendy K (Author) / Wirkus, Stephen (Thesis advisor) / Asphaug, Erik (Committee member) / Camacho, Erika T (Committee member) / Crook, Sharon (Committee member) / Plesko, Catherine S (Committee member) / Smith, Hal (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
Description
For as long as humans have been working, they have been looking for ways to get that work done better, faster, and more efficient. Over the course of human history, mankind has created innumerable spectacular inventions, all with the goal of making the economy and daily life more efficient. Today, innovations and technological advancements are happening at a pace like never seen before, and technology like automation and artificial intelligence are poised to once again fundamentally alter the way people live and work in society. Whether society is prepared or not, robots are coming to replace human labor, and they are coming fast. In many areas artificial intelligence has disrupted entire industries of the economy. As people continue to make advancements in artificial intelligence, more industries will be disturbed, more jobs will be lost, and entirely new industries and professions will be created in their wake. The future of the economy and society will be determined by how humans adapt to the rapid innovations that are taking place every single day. In this paper I will examine the extent to which automation will take the place of human labor in the future, project the potential effect of automation to future unemployment, and what individuals and society will need to do to adapt to keep pace with rapidly advancing technology. I will also look at the history of automation in the economy. For centuries humans have been advancing technology to make their everyday work more productive and efficient, and for centuries this has forced humans to adapt to the modern technology through things like training and education. The thesis will additionally examine the ways in which the U.S. education system will have to adapt to meet the demands of the advancing economy, and how job retraining programs must be modernized to prepare workers for the changing economy.
ContributorsCunningham, Reed P. (Author) / DeSerpa, Allan (Thesis director) / Haglin, Brett (Committee member) / School of International Letters and Cultures (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
Nuclear weapons possess enormous potential to inflict damage on our world. The majority of countries in the world denounce the proliferation of these weapons, but a minority of countries have a desire to proliferate. This essay analyzes the impact of regime type and alliance strength to a nuclear state on protégé proliferation decisions. Prior research focuses on single factors in proliferation decisions and fails to take in to account the multi-faceted factors that influence the international system that states operate in. The analysis finds that regime type gives an indication about a state’s likelihood to proliferate, but does not explain proliferation choices comprehensively. Alliance strength plays a large role in a state’s security calculations and must be analyzed in conjunction to regime type to understand proliferation decisions.
ContributorsHsu, Kai Nalu (Author) / Wright, Thorin (Thesis director) / Thies, Cameron (Committee member) / W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
#VanLife is a long-time, up and coming lifestyle movement on social media centered around the process of leaving the traditional nine-to-five work week for a life on the road in a camper van. While the ‘hippie-esque’ vagabond lifestyle has its humble roots long before the turn of the century, the inception of social media platforms such as Instagram and Pinterest have fueled the more recent popularization of a full-time life on the road. #VanLifers often freelance on the road, work part time jobs, or gain sponsorships to help fund their traveling and humble lifestyle.
As the #VanLife craze continues to grow, new businesses are finding ways to meet the demand in the market. For #Vanlifers who own and operate their own camper vans, specialized companies like GoWesty, Vanagain, and Boxeer offer a full range of parts, upgrades, and custom mechanical and systems conversion kits to keep these vans on the road as OE manufacturers discontinue production on these parts. For those who have an itch to try out the #VanLife for a shorter period and without the financial commitment, companies like Roamerica, TontoTrails, and adventureRIGS offer nightly and weekly rental opportunities on fully-outfitted campervans ready to hit the road.
For my Honors Project I wrote a complete analysis on the history, development, and modernization of the #VanLife movement. With plans to take to the road for an extended period of time after graduation, I also developed a complete financial plan for a one-year #VanLife experience. The financial plan includes a comprehensive set of budgets that scrutinize the start-up an operational costs of the #VanLife and associated travel.
As the #VanLife craze continues to grow, new businesses are finding ways to meet the demand in the market. For #Vanlifers who own and operate their own camper vans, specialized companies like GoWesty, Vanagain, and Boxeer offer a full range of parts, upgrades, and custom mechanical and systems conversion kits to keep these vans on the road as OE manufacturers discontinue production on these parts. For those who have an itch to try out the #VanLife for a shorter period and without the financial commitment, companies like Roamerica, TontoTrails, and adventureRIGS offer nightly and weekly rental opportunities on fully-outfitted campervans ready to hit the road.
For my Honors Project I wrote a complete analysis on the history, development, and modernization of the #VanLife movement. With plans to take to the road for an extended period of time after graduation, I also developed a complete financial plan for a one-year #VanLife experience. The financial plan includes a comprehensive set of budgets that scrutinize the start-up an operational costs of the #VanLife and associated travel.
ContributorsRischitelli, Noah Gary (Author) / Garverick, Michael (Thesis director) / Dawson, Gregory (Committee member) / WPC Graduate Programs (Contributor) / School of Accountancy (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
This thesis project was conducted to create a practical tool to help micro and small local food enterprises identify potential strategies and sources of finance. Currently, many of these enterprises are unable to obtain the financial capital needed to start-up or maintain operations.
Sources and strategies of finance studied and ultimately included in the tool were Loans, Equity, Membership, Crowdfunding, and Grants. The tool designed was a matrix that takes into account various criteria of the business (e.g. business lifecycle, organizational structure, business performance) and generates a financial plan based on these criteria and how they align with the selected business strategies. After strategies are found, stakeholders can search through an institutional database created in conjunction with the matrix tool to find possible institutional providers of financing that relate to the strategy or strategies found.
The tool has shown promise in identifying sources of finance for micro and small local food enterprises in practical use with hypothetical business cases, however further practical use is necessary to provide further input and revise the tool as needed. Ultimately, the tool will likely become fully user-friendly and stakeholders will not need the assistance of another expert helping them to use it. Finally, despite the promise of the tool itself, the fundamental and underlying problem that many of these businesses face (lack of infrastructure and knowledge) still exists, and while this tool can also help capacity-building efforts towards both those seeking and those providing finance, an institutional attitude adjustment towards social and alternative enterprises is necessary in order to further simplify the process of obtaining finance.
Sources and strategies of finance studied and ultimately included in the tool were Loans, Equity, Membership, Crowdfunding, and Grants. The tool designed was a matrix that takes into account various criteria of the business (e.g. business lifecycle, organizational structure, business performance) and generates a financial plan based on these criteria and how they align with the selected business strategies. After strategies are found, stakeholders can search through an institutional database created in conjunction with the matrix tool to find possible institutional providers of financing that relate to the strategy or strategies found.
The tool has shown promise in identifying sources of finance for micro and small local food enterprises in practical use with hypothetical business cases, however further practical use is necessary to provide further input and revise the tool as needed. Ultimately, the tool will likely become fully user-friendly and stakeholders will not need the assistance of another expert helping them to use it. Finally, despite the promise of the tool itself, the fundamental and underlying problem that many of these businesses face (lack of infrastructure and knowledge) still exists, and while this tool can also help capacity-building efforts towards both those seeking and those providing finance, an institutional attitude adjustment towards social and alternative enterprises is necessary in order to further simplify the process of obtaining finance.
ContributorsDwyer, Robert Francis (Author) / Wiek, Arnim (Thesis director) / Forrest, Nigel (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-05
Description
This paper will focus on the changes in China's OFDI while also explaining its growth. However, another primary focus will be comparing the relationships between China, Hong Kong, and Africa. This paper will show the correlating changes between the three regions and explain the distribution of China's investments. One argument is that Hong Kong may play a large role in facilitating Chinese investment into Africa, which if not disaggregated, could lead to inaccurate numbers of China's FDI into Africa. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the importance of China's relationship with Hong Kong and Africa. In 2012, Garth Shelton argued that Hong Kong was an important gateway in South Africa's trade with China. Since then, many others have made similar claims in support of Hong Kong's bigger role. However, due to the difficulty of finding specific data for each region, these analyses are incomplete and fail to clearly substantiate their theory. I will try to find a correlation by gathering my own data, tables, and through different interviews.
ContributorsSon, James (Author) / Simonson, Mark (Thesis director) / Iheduru, Okechukwu (Committee member) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
This thesis examines the impact of price changes of select microprocessors on the market share and 5-year gross profit net present values of Company X in the networking market through a multi-step analysis. The networking market includes segments including media processing, cloud services, security, routers & switches, and access points. For this thesis our team focused on the routers & switches, as well as the security segments. Company X wants to capitalize on the expected growth of the networking market as it transitions to its fifth generation (henceforth referred to as 5G) by positioning itself favorably in its customers eyes through high quality products offered at competitive prices. Our team performed a quantitative analysis of benchmark data to measure the performances of Company X's products against those of its competitors. We collected this data from third party computer reviewers, as well as the published reports of Company X and its competitors. Through the use of a preference matrix, we then normalized this performance data to adjust for different scales. In order to provide a well-rounded analysis, we adjusted these normalized performances for power consumption (using thermal design power as a proxy) as well as price. We believe these adjusted performances are more valuable than raw benchmark data, as they appeal to the demands of price-sensitive customers. Based on these comparisons, our team was able to assess price changes for their market and discounted financial impact on Company X. Our findings challenge the current pricing of one of the two products being analyzed and suggests a 9% decrease in the price of said product. This recommendation most effectively positions Company X for the development of 5G by offering the best balance of market share and NPV.
ContributorsArias, Stephen (Co-author) / Masson, Taylor (Co-author) / McCall, Kyle (Co-author) / Dimitroff, Alex (Co-author) / Hardy, Sebastian (Co-author) / Simonson, Mark (Thesis director) / Haller, Marcie (Committee member) / School of Accountancy (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
While developing and maintaining a connection between a brand and a customer has always been in the forefront of marketers' agendas, it has become an even more pressing goal as digital trends in marketing surface. Although the idea of using rewards to foster consumer-brand connection has been around for decades, marketers are still struggling to optimize the benefits. How can marketers use rewards to better connect with their customers? Are there certain types of rewards that are more effective than others? Are certain rewards more effective when being implemented under brands of a certain personality type? In a society that values connection and relationship, marketers cannot lose their ability to appreciate customers under digital constraints and to marketplace competition. Through a field study and scenario-based experiment, we explore how and why low conditional vs. high conditional rewards influence consumer-brand connection and the role brand personality plays.
ContributorsBauer, Madelaine Anne (Co-author) / Bryant, Kelly (Co-author) / Lisjak, Monika (Thesis director) / Samper, Adriana (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Department of Marketing (Contributor) / Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
DescriptionI made a full business plan and pitch to investors for a company I plan on starting next semester.
ContributorsOramas, Michael (Author) / Trujillo, Rhett (Thesis director) / Naumann, Gary (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Department of Management and Entrepreneurship (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-12