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Description
Background
In the weeks following the first imported case of Ebola in the U. S. on September 29, 2014, coverage of the very limited outbreak dominated the news media, in a manner quite disproportionate to the actual threat to national public health; by the end of October, 2014, there were only four laboratory confirmed cases of Ebola in the entire nation. Public interest in these events was high, as reflected in the millions of Ebola-related Internet searches and tweets performed in the month following the first confirmed case. Use of trending Internet searches and tweets has been proposed in the past for real-time prediction of outbreaks (a field referred to as “digital epidemiology”), but accounting for the biases of public panic has been problematic. In the case of the limited U. S. Ebola outbreak, we know that the Ebola-related searches and tweets originating the U. S. during the outbreak were due only to public interest or panic, providing an unprecedented means to determine how these dynamics affect such data, and how news media may be driving these trends.
Methodology
We examine daily Ebola-related Internet search and Twitter data in the U. S. during the six week period ending Oct 31, 2014. TV news coverage data were obtained from the daily number of Ebola-related news videos appearing on two major news networks. We fit the parameters of a mathematical contagion model to the data to determine if the news coverage was a significant factor in the temporal patterns in Ebola-related Internet and Twitter data.
Conclusions
We find significant evidence of contagion, with each Ebola-related news video inspiring tens of thousands of Ebola-related tweets and Internet searches. Between 65% to 76% of the variance in all samples is described by the news media contagion model.
In the weeks following the first imported case of Ebola in the U. S. on September 29, 2014, coverage of the very limited outbreak dominated the news media, in a manner quite disproportionate to the actual threat to national public health; by the end of October, 2014, there were only four laboratory confirmed cases of Ebola in the entire nation. Public interest in these events was high, as reflected in the millions of Ebola-related Internet searches and tweets performed in the month following the first confirmed case. Use of trending Internet searches and tweets has been proposed in the past for real-time prediction of outbreaks (a field referred to as “digital epidemiology”), but accounting for the biases of public panic has been problematic. In the case of the limited U. S. Ebola outbreak, we know that the Ebola-related searches and tweets originating the U. S. during the outbreak were due only to public interest or panic, providing an unprecedented means to determine how these dynamics affect such data, and how news media may be driving these trends.
Methodology
We examine daily Ebola-related Internet search and Twitter data in the U. S. during the six week period ending Oct 31, 2014. TV news coverage data were obtained from the daily number of Ebola-related news videos appearing on two major news networks. We fit the parameters of a mathematical contagion model to the data to determine if the news coverage was a significant factor in the temporal patterns in Ebola-related Internet and Twitter data.
Conclusions
We find significant evidence of contagion, with each Ebola-related news video inspiring tens of thousands of Ebola-related tweets and Internet searches. Between 65% to 76% of the variance in all samples is described by the news media contagion model.
ContributorsTowers, Sherry (Author) / Afzal, Shehzad (Author) / Bernal, Gilbert (Author) / Bliss, Nadya (Author) / Brown, Shala (Author) / Espinoza, Baltazar (Author) / Jackson, Jasmine (Author) / Judson-Garcia, Julia (Author) / Khan, Maryam (Author) / Lin, Michael (Author) / Mamada, Robert (Author) / Moreno, Victor (Author) / Nazari, Fereshteh (Author) / Okuneye, Kamaldeen (Author) / Ross, Mary (Author) / Rodriguez, Claudia (Author) / Medlock, Jan (Author) / Ebert, David (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor) / Mary Lou Fulton Teachers College (Contributor) / Educational Leadership and Innovation (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Global Security Initiative (Contributor)
Created2015-06-11
Description
Background
Seroepidemiological studies before and after the epidemic wave of H1N1-2009 are useful for estimating population attack rates with a potential to validate early estimates of the reproduction number, R, in modeling studies.
Methodology/Principal Findings
Since the final epidemic size, the proportion of individuals in a population who become infected during an epidemic, is not the result of a binomial sampling process because infection events are not independent of each other, we propose the use of an asymptotic distribution of the final size to compute approximate 95% confidence intervals of the observed final size. This allows the comparison of the observed final sizes against predictions based on the modeling study (R = 1.15, 1.40 and 1.90), which also yields simple formulae for determining sample sizes for future seroepidemiological studies. We examine a total of eleven published seroepidemiological studies of H1N1-2009 that took place after observing the peak incidence in a number of countries. Observed seropositive proportions in six studies appear to be smaller than that predicted from R = 1.40; four of the six studies sampled serum less than one month after the reported peak incidence. The comparison of the observed final sizes against R = 1.15 and 1.90 reveals that all eleven studies appear not to be significantly deviating from the prediction with R = 1.15, but final sizes in nine studies indicate overestimation if the value R = 1.90 is used.
Conclusions
Sample sizes of published seroepidemiological studies were too small to assess the validity of model predictions except when R = 1.90 was used. We recommend the use of the proposed approach in determining the sample size of post-epidemic seroepidemiological studies, calculating the 95% confidence interval of observed final size, and conducting relevant hypothesis testing instead of the use of methods that rely on a binomial proportion.
Seroepidemiological studies before and after the epidemic wave of H1N1-2009 are useful for estimating population attack rates with a potential to validate early estimates of the reproduction number, R, in modeling studies.
Methodology/Principal Findings
Since the final epidemic size, the proportion of individuals in a population who become infected during an epidemic, is not the result of a binomial sampling process because infection events are not independent of each other, we propose the use of an asymptotic distribution of the final size to compute approximate 95% confidence intervals of the observed final size. This allows the comparison of the observed final sizes against predictions based on the modeling study (R = 1.15, 1.40 and 1.90), which also yields simple formulae for determining sample sizes for future seroepidemiological studies. We examine a total of eleven published seroepidemiological studies of H1N1-2009 that took place after observing the peak incidence in a number of countries. Observed seropositive proportions in six studies appear to be smaller than that predicted from R = 1.40; four of the six studies sampled serum less than one month after the reported peak incidence. The comparison of the observed final sizes against R = 1.15 and 1.90 reveals that all eleven studies appear not to be significantly deviating from the prediction with R = 1.15, but final sizes in nine studies indicate overestimation if the value R = 1.90 is used.
Conclusions
Sample sizes of published seroepidemiological studies were too small to assess the validity of model predictions except when R = 1.90 was used. We recommend the use of the proposed approach in determining the sample size of post-epidemic seroepidemiological studies, calculating the 95% confidence interval of observed final size, and conducting relevant hypothesis testing instead of the use of methods that rely on a binomial proportion.
ContributorsNishiura, Hiroshi (Author) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor)
Created2011-03-24
Description
Background
Several past studies have found that media reports of suicides and homicides appear to subsequently increase the incidence of similar events in the community, apparently due to the coverage planting the seeds of ideation in at-risk individuals to commit similar acts.
Methods
Here we explore whether or not contagion is evident in more high-profile incidents, such as school shootings and mass killings (incidents with four or more people killed). We fit a contagion model to recent data sets related to such incidents in the US, with terms that take into account the fact that a school shooting or mass murder may temporarily increase the probability of a similar event in the immediate future, by assuming an exponential decay in contagiousness after an event.
Conclusions
We find significant evidence that mass killings involving firearms are incented by similar events in the immediate past. On average, this temporary increase in probability lasts 13 days, and each incident incites at least 0.30 new incidents (p = 0.0015). We also find significant evidence of contagion in school shootings, for which an incident is contagious for an average of 13 days, and incites an average of at least 0.22 new incidents (p = 0.0001). All p-values are assessed based on a likelihood ratio test comparing the likelihood of a contagion model to that of a null model with no contagion. On average, mass killings involving firearms occur approximately every two weeks in the US, while school shootings occur on average monthly. We find that state prevalence of firearm ownership is significantly associated with the state incidence of mass killings with firearms, school shootings, and mass shootings.
Several past studies have found that media reports of suicides and homicides appear to subsequently increase the incidence of similar events in the community, apparently due to the coverage planting the seeds of ideation in at-risk individuals to commit similar acts.
Methods
Here we explore whether or not contagion is evident in more high-profile incidents, such as school shootings and mass killings (incidents with four or more people killed). We fit a contagion model to recent data sets related to such incidents in the US, with terms that take into account the fact that a school shooting or mass murder may temporarily increase the probability of a similar event in the immediate future, by assuming an exponential decay in contagiousness after an event.
Conclusions
We find significant evidence that mass killings involving firearms are incented by similar events in the immediate past. On average, this temporary increase in probability lasts 13 days, and each incident incites at least 0.30 new incidents (p = 0.0015). We also find significant evidence of contagion in school shootings, for which an incident is contagious for an average of 13 days, and incites an average of at least 0.22 new incidents (p = 0.0001). All p-values are assessed based on a likelihood ratio test comparing the likelihood of a contagion model to that of a null model with no contagion. On average, mass killings involving firearms occur approximately every two weeks in the US, while school shootings occur on average monthly. We find that state prevalence of firearm ownership is significantly associated with the state incidence of mass killings with firearms, school shootings, and mass shootings.
ContributorsTowers, Sherry (Author) / Gomez-Lievano, Andres (Author) / Khan, Maryam (Author) / Mubayi, Anuj (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor)
Created2015-07-02
Description
Across the animal kingdom, communication serves a vital purpose. The transfer of information between and among species is often paramount to many behaviors including mating, collaboration, and defense. While research has provided tremendous insight into animal communication and interaction, there is still much that we have yet to understand. Due to their reliance on interactions that maximize efficiency within their complicated colony structure and array of member roles, eusocial insects serve as an excellent model for animal communication. Among eusocial insects, ants are some of the most heavily researched, with a tremendous amount of literature focused on their cuticular hydrocarbons. Along with serving as a waterproofing agent, cuticular hydrocarbons also play a major role in recognition and communication in these insects. By studying the importance of hydrocarbons in ant social structure, their tremendously specialized olfactory system, and the use of learning assays in its study, parallels between communication in ants and other animals are revealed, demonstrating how ants serve as a relevant model for animal communication as a whole.
ContributorsSpirek, Benton Forest Ensminger (Author) / Liebig, Juergen (Thesis director) / Pratt, Stephen (Committee member) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-12
Description
The 18S ribosomal RNA gene is ubiquitous across eukaryotes as it encodes the RNA component of the ribosomal small subunit. It is the most commonly used marker in molecular studies of unicellular eukaryotes (protists) due to its species specificity and high copy number in the protist genome. Recent studies have revealed the widespread occurrence of intragenomic (intra-individual) polymorphism in many protists, an understudied phenomenon which contradicts the assumed homogeneity of the 18S throughout an individual genome. This thesis quantifies and analyzes the level of intragenomic and intraspecific 18S sequence variability in three Trichonympha species (T. campanula, T. collaris, T. postcylindrica) from Zootermopsis termites. Single-cell DNA extractions, PCR, cloning, and sequencing were performed to obtain 18S rRNA sequence reads, which were then analyzed to determine levels of sequence divergence among individuals and among species. Intragenomic variability was encountered in all three species. However, excluding singleton mutations, sequence divergence was less than 1% in 53 of the 56 compared individuals. T. collaris exhibited the most substantial intragenomic variability, with sequence divergence ranging from 0 to 3.4%. Further studies with more clones per cell are needed to elucidate the true extent of intragenomic variability in Trichonympha.
ContributorsBobbett, Bradley (Author) / Gile, Gillian (Thesis director) / Liebig, Juergen (Committee member) / School of International Letters and Cultures (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-05
Adaptation of Camponotus floridanus’ Cuticular Hydrocarbon Profile under High Temperature Conditions
Description
Insects are small creatures highly susceptible to water loss. A major factor in the prevention of water loss through an insect’s cuticle are their cuticular hydrocarbons (CHC), a lipid layer consisting mostly of long-chain hydrocarbons. CHCs consist of different molecules called alkanes, alkenes, and methyl branched hydrocarbons which all have varying levels of hydrophobicity. Ants are a massively abundant family of insects with important roles in the ecosystem that also utilize CHCs. Camponotus floridanus isare athe native ant species of the Florida Keys which areis known to have variable environmental temperature. Being exposed to temperatures as high as 35 °C, these ants are expected to have mechanisms that allow them to adapt to their environment. It was hypothesized that CHCs may change in concentration or composition as a means to combat the changes in cuticular permeability due to the variable temperatures that the ants experience. We therefore used C. floridanus worker ants to learn more about CHC plasticity in insects when exposed to elevated temperatures. We found four CHC componentspeaks that showed a statistically significant increase in concentration when comparing the control to treatment colonies: 3,7 dimethyl C31, an underdetermined methyl branched C31, 3,7,11 trimethyl C31, and an undetermined tetramethylbranched C31. These significant changes in concentration occurred on longer chain hydrocarbons. Under further examination, it was found that there was a strong positive correlation between elution time and the differences in medians of peak area between control and treatment colonies. This shows that there was a shift in the CHC profile resulting in an increased concentration of longer chained methyl-branched hydrocarbons. It also suggests that branched hydrocarbons also play some role in the water proofing mechanism of C. floridanus.
ContributorsOn, Thomas (Co-author) / On, Tyler (Co-author) / Liebig, Juergen (Thesis director) / Harrison, Jon (Committee member) / Murdock, Tyler (Committee member) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-05
Description
I have conducted a creative that captures the power of women through an artistic perspective. The title of the creative project is “A Tribute to the Women Among us,” because this project’s purpose is to express gratitude for the women that fought for the rights I have today, and for the women I encounter in marches, continuing the fight. I have taken photographs of women and children at women's marches in the United States and in France, yielding a total of 10 photographs I will be presenting at my defense, and printing out to sell. All the profits made from the photographs will be donated to planned parenthood.
ContributorsMiss Ozuna, Alejandra Miss (Author) / Anand, Julia (Thesis director) / Mesch, Claudia (Committee member) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / Department of Psychology (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
When ants encounter liquid food, they have two options of transporting that food to their nests. The first is the social bucket method in which liquid is carried in the mandibles of the workers back to the nest. The second is trophallaxis in which liquid is imbibed and then transported inside the ant back to the nest. The liquid is then regurgitated to fellow nestmates. Ectatomma have been observed using the social bucket method of transport and were considered members of the Ponerine family. However, a new phylogeny created by Borowiec and Rabeling places Ectatomma near to Formecinae and Myrmicinae, both know for practicing trophallaxis. This seems to suggest either Ectatomma is able to utilize trophallaxis as well or that the evolutionary practice of trophallaxis is more plastic than previously believed. The ability of Ectatomma ruidum to utilize trophallaxis was examined in two experiments. The first experiment examined E. ruidum’s ability to practice worker to worker trophallaxis and the second examined E. ruidum’s ability to perform worker to larva trophallaxis. The results of both experiments indicated that E. ruidum cannot utilize trophallaxis but the larva of E. ruidum may be able to regurgitate to the workers. These results in turn seem to suggest that trophallaxis is a bit more plastic than originally thought.
ContributorsCunningham, Cassius Alexander (Author) / Pratt, Stephen (Thesis director) / Liebig, Juergen (Committee member) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Residential Choice’s Impact on Sustainable Transportation Options: A Study in the Phoenix Metro Area
Description
This study adds to the literature about residential choice and sustainable transportation. Through the interviews and the personal stories gathered, there was diversity shown in the residential location choice process. We also noticed that “commute” means different things to different households, and that many people did not consider their commute to work to be a primary factor determining their final home location. Moreover, many people were willing to increase their commute time, or trade access to desirable amenities for a longer commute. Commuting time to work was one example of the tradeoffs that homeowners make when choosing a home, but there were also others such as architectural type and access to neighborhood amenities. Lastly, time constraints proved to be a very significant factor in the home buying process. Several of our households had such strict time constraints that limited their search to a point of excluding whole areas. Overall, our study sheds light on transportation’s role in residential choice and underscores the complexity of the location choice process.
ContributorsKats, Elyse Nicole (Author) / Salon, Deborah (Thesis director) / Kuminoff, Nicolai (Committee member) / School of Sustainability (Contributor) / School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning (Contributor) / School of Community Resources and Development (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
An intimate view of the unique architecture of Harpegnathos saltwater nest using aluminum nest casts
Description
Abstract:
Given the incredible variety in ant nest architecture, this experiment sought to evaluate how the nest architecture of Harpegnathos saltator differs from other species’ nests. To achieve the ability to evaluate the structure of H. saltator nest, we created experimental colonies varying in size from 20, 40, 60, 80 workers of Harpegnathos saltator in five-gallon buckets of sand and then allowing the colonies to grow for four months and twelve days. To create the nest casts, we developed a charcoal kiln out of a galvanized trash can and used a ceramic crucible to hold the aluminum being melted. Using molten aluminum to create nest casts of each colony produced, we obtained three poorly developed nests and one decent nest. The decent nest cast, the 80 worker H. saltator nest, was lacking key features of H. saltator nests that have been excavated in the field. However, they do share many of the same structures such as the shaping of the chambers. The ability of the experimental colonies to excavate the soil provided in the buckets to them was likely halted by poor penetration of water into superficial layers of the soil, thus making the soil too difficult to excavate and form the structures that are key elements of the species nest architecture. Despite these key challenges which the colonies faced, the 80-worker colony showed extensive vertical development and did display features associated with natural H. saltator colonies. Thus, given the display of some key features associated with characteristics of the H. saltator nests excavated in the field, it can be said that with some modification to technique that this is a viable avenue for future study of nest architecture and colony structure.
Given the incredible variety in ant nest architecture, this experiment sought to evaluate how the nest architecture of Harpegnathos saltator differs from other species’ nests. To achieve the ability to evaluate the structure of H. saltator nest, we created experimental colonies varying in size from 20, 40, 60, 80 workers of Harpegnathos saltator in five-gallon buckets of sand and then allowing the colonies to grow for four months and twelve days. To create the nest casts, we developed a charcoal kiln out of a galvanized trash can and used a ceramic crucible to hold the aluminum being melted. Using molten aluminum to create nest casts of each colony produced, we obtained three poorly developed nests and one decent nest. The decent nest cast, the 80 worker H. saltator nest, was lacking key features of H. saltator nests that have been excavated in the field. However, they do share many of the same structures such as the shaping of the chambers. The ability of the experimental colonies to excavate the soil provided in the buckets to them was likely halted by poor penetration of water into superficial layers of the soil, thus making the soil too difficult to excavate and form the structures that are key elements of the species nest architecture. Despite these key challenges which the colonies faced, the 80-worker colony showed extensive vertical development and did display features associated with natural H. saltator colonies. Thus, given the display of some key features associated with characteristics of the H. saltator nests excavated in the field, it can be said that with some modification to technique that this is a viable avenue for future study of nest architecture and colony structure.
ContributorsAnderson, Clayton Edward (Author) / Liebig, Juergen (Thesis director) / Pratt, Stephen (Committee member) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05