Actuaries can analyze healthcare trends to determine if rates are reasonable and if reserves are adequate. In this talk, we will provide a framework of methods to analyze the healthcare trend during the pandemic. COVID-19 may influence future healthcare cost trends in many ways. First, direct COVID-19 costs may increase the amount of total experienced healthcare costs. However, with the implementation of social distancing, the amount of regularly scheduled care may be deferred to a future date. There are also many unknown factors regarding the transmission of the virus. Implementing epidemiology models allows us to predict infections by studying the dynamics of the disease. The correlation between infection amounts and hospitalization occupancies provide a methodology to estimate the amount of deferred and recouped amounts of regularly scheduled healthcare costs. Thus, the combination of the models allows to model the healthcare cost trend impact due to COVID-19.

An X class solar flare has the potential to remove our satellites from orbit, permanently deactivate our main forms of communication and bring humanity into a technology-free age. By using Geant4, it is possible to simulate several layers of the Earth's atmosphere and send a simulated solar flare and coronal mass ejection. This thesis will show the interaction of photons and protons of various energies with several kilometers of atmosphere.

In collaboration with Moog Broad Reach and Arizona State University, a<br/>team of five undergraduate students designed a hardware design solution for<br/>protecting flash memory data in a spaced-based radioactive environment. Team<br/>Aegis have been working on the research, design, and implementation of a<br/>Verilog- and Python-based error correction code using a Reed-Solomon method<br/>to identify bit changes of error code. For an additional senior design project, a<br/>Python code was implemented that runs statistical analysis to identify whether<br/>the error correction code is more effective than a triple-redundancy check as well<br/>as determining if the presence of errors can be modeled by a regression model.

Optimal foraging theory provides a suite of tools that model the best way that an animal will <br/>structure its searching and processing decisions in uncertain environments. It has been <br/>successful characterizing real patterns of animal decision making, thereby providing insights<br/>into why animals behave the way they do. However, it does not speak to how animals make<br/>decisions that tend to be adaptive. Using simulation studies, prior work has shown empirically<br/>that a simple decision-making heuristic tends to produce prey-choice behaviors that, on <br/>average, match the predicted behaviors of optimal foraging theory. That heuristic chooses<br/>to spend time processing an encountered prey item if that prey item's marginal rate of<br/>caloric gain (in calories per unit of processing time) is greater than the forager's<br/>current long-term rate of accumulated caloric gain (in calories per unit of total searching<br/>and processing time). Although this heuristic may seem intuitive, a rigorous mathematical<br/>argument for why it tends to produce the theorized optimal foraging theory behavior has<br/>not been developed. In this thesis, an analytical argument is given for why this<br/>simple decision-making heuristic is expected to realize the optimal performance<br/>predicted by optimal foraging theory. This theoretical guarantee not only provides support<br/>for why such a heuristic might be favored by natural selection, but it also provides<br/>support for why such a heuristic might a reliable tool for decision-making in autonomous<br/>engineered agents moving through theatres of uncertain rewards. Ultimately, this simple<br/>decision-making heuristic may provide a recipe for reinforcement learning in small robots<br/>with little computational capabilities.

2D fetal echocardiography (ECHO) can be used for monitoring heart development in utero. This study’s purpose is to empirically model normal fetal heart growth and function changes during development by ECHO and compare these to fetuses diagnosed with and without cardiomyopathy with diabetic mothers. There are existing mathematical models describing fetal heart development but they warrant revalidation and adjustment. 377 normal fetuses with healthy mothers, 98 normal fetuses with diabetic mothers, and 37 fetuses with cardiomyopathy and diabetic mothers had their cardiac structural dimensions, cardiothoracic ratio, valve flow velocities, and heart rates measured by fetal ECHO in a retrospective chart review. Cardiac features were fitted to linear functions, with respect to gestational age, femur length, head circumference, and biparietal diameter and z-scores were created to model normal fetal growth for all parameters. These z-scores were used to assess what metrics had no difference in means between the normal fetuses of both healthy and diabetic mothers, but differed from those diagnosed with cardiomyopathy. It was found that functional metrics like mitral and tricuspid E wave and pulmonary velocity could be important predictors for cardiomyopathy when fitted by gestational age, femur length, head circumference, and biparietal diameter. Additionally, aortic and tricuspid annulus diameters when fitted to estimated gestational age showed potential to be predictors for fetal cardiomyopathy. While the metrics overlapped over their full range, combining them together may have the potential for predicting cardiomyopathy in utero. Future directions of this study will explore creating a classifier model that can predict cardiomyopathy using the metrics assessed in this study.

The Founders lab is a year-long program that gives its students an opportunity to participate in a unique team-based, experiential Barrett honors thesis project to design and apply marketing and sales strategies, as well as business and financial models to start up and launch a new business. This honors thesis project focuses on increasing the rate of vaccination outcomes in a country where people are increasingly busy (less time) and unwilling to get a needle through a new business venture that provides a service that brings vaccinations straight to businesses, making them available for their employees. Through our work with the Founders Lab, our team was able to create this pitch deck.

We think about hope every day, even if we do not consciously think about it. It is an important part of our lives. It affects our subjective well-being and physical health. Yet, many people do not know the importance of hope and how it can be created within one's self. A workshop was designed to increase the knowledge of hope, primarily for college students. The workshop focused on defining hope, explaining how hope plays a part in a healthy lifestyle, and how to create hope for themselves. This project looked at the Hope Theory, discovered by Charles Snyder, and how it can be measured hope through goal attainment<br/>onattainment.

Dreadnought is a free-to-play multiplayer flight simulation in which two teams of 8 players each compete against one another to complete an objective. Each player controls a large-scale spaceship, various aspects of which can be customized to improve a player’s performance in a game. One such aspect is Officer Briefings, which are passive abilities that grant ships additional capabilities. Two of these Briefings, known as Retaliator and Get My Good Side, have strong synergy when used together, which has led to the Dreadnought community’s claiming that the Briefings are too powerful and should be rebalanced to be more in line with the power levels of other Briefings. This study collected gameplay data with and without the use of these specific Officer Briefings to determine the precise impact on gameplay. Linear correlation matrices and inference on two means were used to determine performance impact. It was found that, although these Officer Briefings do improve an individual player’s performance in a game, they do not have a consistent impact on the player’s team performance, and that these Officer Briefings are therefore not in need of rebalancing.