Investigating local-scale interactions within a network makes it possible to test hypotheses about the mechanisms of global network connectivity and to ask whether there are general rules underlying network function across systems. Here we use motif analysis to determine whether the interactions within social insect colonies resemble the patterns exhibited by other animal associations or if they exhibit characteristics of biological regulatory systems. Colonies exhibit a predominance of feed-forward interaction motifs, in contrast to the densely interconnected clique patterns that characterize human interaction and animal social networks. The regulatory motif signature supports the hypothesis that social insect colonies are shaped by selection for network patterns that integrate colony functionality at the group rather than individual level, and demonstrates the utility of this approach for analysis of selection effects on complex systems across biological levels of organization.

Contemporary human populations conform to ecogeographic predictions that animals will become more compact in cooler climates and less compact in warmer ones. However, it remains unclear to what extent this pattern reflects plastic responses to current environments or genetic differences among populations. Analyzing anthropometric surveys of 232,684 children and adults from across 80 ethnolinguistic groups in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and the Americas, we confirm that body surface-to-volume correlates with contemporary temperature at magnitudes found in more latitudinally diverse samples (Adj. R² = 0.14-0.28). However, far more variation in body surface-to-volume is attributable to genetic population structure (Adj. R² = 0.50-0.74). Moreover, genetic population structure accounts for nearly all of the observed relationship between contemporary temperature and body surface-to-volume among children and adults. Indeed, after controlling for population structure, contemporary temperature accounts for no more than 4% of the variance in body form in these groups. This effect of genetic affinity on body form is also independent of other ecological variables, such as dominant mode of subsistence and household wealth per capita. These findings suggest that the observed fit of human body surface-to-volume with current climate in this sample reflects relatively large effects of existing genetic population structure of contemporary humans compared to plastic response to current environments.

We have little knowledge of how climatic variation (and by proxy, habitat variation) influences the phylogenetic structure of tropical communities. Here, we quantified the phylogenetic structure of mammal communities in Africa to investigate how community structure varies with respect to climate and species richness variation across the continent. In addition, we investigated how phylogenetic patterns vary across carnivores, primates, and ungulates. We predicted that climate would differentially affect the structure of communities from different clades due to between-clade biological variation. We examined 203 communities using two metrics, the net relatedness (NRI) and nearest taxon (NTI) indices. We used simultaneous autoregressive models to predict community phylogenetic structure from climate variables and species richness. We found that most individual communities exhibited a phylogenetic structure consistent with a null model, but both climate and species richness significantly predicted variation in community phylogenetic metrics. Using NTI, species rich communities were composed of more distantly related taxa for all mammal communities, as well as for communities of carnivorans or ungulates. Temperature seasonality predicted the phylogenetic structure of mammal, carnivoran, and ungulate communities, and annual rainfall predicted primate community structure. Additional climate variables related to temperature and rainfall also predicted the phylogenetic structure of ungulate communities. We suggest that both past interspecific competition and habitat filtering have shaped variation in tropical mammal communities. The significant effect of climatic factors on community structure has important implications for the diversity of mammal communities given current models of future climate change.

We asked how team dynamics can be captured in relation to function by considering games in the first round of the NBA 2010 play-offs as networks. Defining players as nodes and ball movements as links, we analyzed the network properties of degree centrality, clustering, entropy and flow centrality across teams and positions, to characterize the game from a network perspective and to determine whether we can assess differences in team offensive strategy by their network properties. The compiled network structure across teams reflected a fundamental attribute of basketball strategy. They primarily showed a centralized ball distribution pattern with the point guard in a leadership role.

However, individual play-off teams showed variation in their relative involvement of other players/positions in ball distribution, reflected quantitatively by differences in clustering and degree centrality. We also characterized two potential alternate offensive strategies by associated variation in network structure: (1) whether teams consistently moved the ball towards their shooting specialists, measured as “uphill/downhill” flux, and (2) whether they distributed the ball in a way that reduced predictability, measured as team entropy.

These network metrics quantified different aspects of team strategy, with no single metric wholly predictive of success. However, in the context of the 2010 play-offs, the values of clustering (connectedness across players) and network entropy (unpredictability of ball movement) had the most consistent association with team advancement. Our analyses demonstrate the utility of network approaches in quantifying team strategy and show that testable hypotheses can be evaluated using this approach. These analyses also highlight the richness of basketball networks as a dataset for exploring the relationships between network structure and dynamics with team organization and effectiveness.

Background: Multiple studies show that obesity and depression tend to cluster in women. An “appearance concern” pathway has been proposed as one basic explanation of why higher weights might lead to depression. The transition to motherhood is a life phase in which women’s body image, weight, and depressive risk are in flux, with average weight increasing overall during this period. Examination of how these factors interact from pre- to post-pregnancy provides a means to test how body image plays a key role, as proposed, in causally shaping women’s depressive risk.

Methods: Tracking 39,915 pregnant women in the Norwegian Mother and Child (MoBA) Cohort Study forward 36 months after their deliveries, we test the moderating and mediating effects of body image concerns on the emergence of new mothers’ depressive symptoms by using a binary logistic regression model with a discrete-time event history approach and mediation analysis with bootstrapping.

Results: For women with high pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI), weight gain heightens their depressive symptoms over time. Body image concerns mediate the association between weight gain and the development of depressive symptoms regardless of weight status. However, the mediation effect is more evident for women with higher pre-pregnancy BMI. Conversely, better body image is highly protective against the transition to mild or more severe depressive symptoms among new mothers, but only for women who were not classified as obese prior to their pregnancies.

Conclusions: These findings support a role for body image concerns in the etiology of depressive symptoms during the transition to motherhood. The findings suggest body image interventions before or during pregnancy could help reduce risks of depression in the early postpartum period and well beyond.

Background:
Data assimilation refers to methods for updating the state vector (initial condition) of a complex spatiotemporal model (such as a numerical weather model) by combining new observations with one or more prior forecasts. We consider the potential feasibility of this approach for making short-term (60-day) forecasts of the growth and spread of a malignant brain cancer (glioblastoma multiforme) in individual patient cases, where the observations are synthetic magnetic resonance images of a hypothetical tumor.

Results:
We apply a modern state estimation algorithm (the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter), previously developed for numerical weather prediction, to two different mathematical models of glioblastoma, taking into account likely errors in model parameters and measurement uncertainties in magnetic resonance imaging. The filter can accurately shadow the growth of a representative synthetic tumor for 360 days (six 60-day forecast/update cycles) in the presence of a moderate degree of systematic model error and measurement noise.

Conclusions:
The mathematical methodology described here may prove useful for other modeling efforts in biology and oncology. An accurate forecast system for glioblastoma may prove useful in clinical settings for treatment planning and patient counseling.

This study explores long-term deviations from wind averages, specifically near the surface across central North America and adjoining oceans (25°–50°N, 60°–130°W) for 1979–2012 (408 months) by utilizing the North American Regional Reanalysis 10-m wind climate datasets. Regions where periods of anomalous wind speeds were observed (i.e., 1 standard deviation below/above both the long-term mean annual and mean monthly wind speeds at each grid point) were identified. These two climatic extremes were classified as wind lulls (WLs; below) or wind blows (WBs; above). Major findings for the North American study domain indicate that 1) mean annual wind speeds range from 1–3 m s^-1 (Intermountain West) to over 7 m s^-1 (offshore the East and West Coasts), 2) mean durations for WLs and WBs are high for much of the southeastern United States and for the open waters of the North Atlantic Ocean, respectively, 3) the longest WL/WB episodes for the majority of locations have historically not exceeded 5 months, 4) WLs and WBs are most common during June and October, respectively, for the upper Midwest, 5) WLs are least frequent over the southwestern United States during the North American monsoon, and 6) no significant anomalous wind trends exist over land or sea.

With approximately 20 % of the world’s population living in its downstream watersheds, the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) is considered “Asia’s Water Tower.” However, grasslands of the QTP, where most of Asia’s great rivers originate, are becoming increasingly degraded, which leads to elevated population densities of a native small mammal, the plateau pika (Ochotona curzoniae). As a result pikas have been characterized as a pest leading to wide-spread poisoning campaigns in an attempt to restore grassland quality. A contrary view is that pikas are a keystone species for biodiversity and that their burrowing activity provides a critical ecosystem service by increasing the infiltration rate of water, hence reducing overland flow. We demonstrate that poisoning plateau pikas significantly reduces infiltration rate of water across the QTP creating the potential for watershed-level impacts. Our results demonstrate the importance of burrowing mammals as ecosystem engineers, particularly with regard to their influence on hydrological functioning.

The influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) produces pronounced regional variability in drought over the Caribbean, Central America and equatorial South America area. Through spatial statistical analyses, we identified a marked dichotomy between drought values of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) in northern Mexico and equatorial South America as a function of the AMO. The relationship is such that significant negative correlations between the drought index and phase of the AMO are identified for northern Mexico and on the Atlantic side of Central America. This indicates that drought (negative values of the SPEI) episodes are linked to the positive phase of the AMO. Alternately, there are high positive correlations between the AMO and on the Pacific side of Central America, the Caribbean and mainly in the northern South American area closest to the equator. Although many potential causes have been proposed in explanation of precipitation variability over the region, this geographic dichotomy suggests that movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) may play a significance role. The heightened vulnerability of the developing nations in this region to drought episodes makes forecasting droughts of great importance. These nations are greatly dependent on water intensive industries to maintain economic development. Thus, the findings of this research can assist in informing drought preparedness strategies to mitigate significant losses due to drought.

Graph pebbling is a network optimization model for transporting discrete resources that are consumed in transit: the movement of 2 pebbles across an edge consumes one of the pebbles. The pebbling number of a graph is the fewest number of pebbles t so that, from any initial configuration of t pebbles on its vertices, one can place a pebble on any given target vertex via such pebbling steps. It is known that deciding whether a given configuration on a particular graph can reach a specified target is NP-complete, even for diameter 2 graphs, and that deciding whether the pebbling number has a prescribed upper bound is Π[P over 2]-complete. On the other hand, for many families of graphs there are formulas or polynomial algorithms for computing pebbling numbers; for example, complete graphs, products of paths (including cubes), trees, cycles, diameter 2 graphs, and more. Moreover, graphs having minimum pebbling number are called Class 0, and many authors have studied which graphs are Class 0 and what graph properties guarantee it, with no characterization in sight. In this paper we investigate an important family of diameter 3 chordal graphs called split graphs; graphs whose vertex set can be partitioned into a clique and an independent set. We provide a formula for the pebbling number of a split graph, along with an algorithm for calculating it that runs in O(n[superscript β]) time, where β = 2ω/(ω + 1) [= over ∼] 1.41 and ω [= over ∼] 2.376 is the exponent of matrix multiplication. Furthermore we determine that all split graphs with minimum degree at least 3 are Class 0.