Matching Items (69)
Description
Ten regional climate models (RCMs) and atmosphere-ocean generalized model parings from the North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program were used to estimate the shift of extreme precipitation due to climate change using present-day and future-day climate scenarios. RCMs emulate winter storms and one-day duration events at the sub-regional level. Annual maximum series were derived for each model pairing, each modeling period; and for annual and winter seasons. The reliability ensemble average (REA) method was used to qualify each RCM annual maximum series to reproduce historical records and approximate average predictions, because there are no future records. These series determined (a) shifts in extreme precipitation frequencies and magnitudes, and (b) shifts in parameters during modeling periods. The REA method demonstrated that the winter season had lower REA factors than the annual season. For the winter season the RCM pairing of the Hadley regional Model 3 and the Geophysical Fluid-Dynamics Laboratory atmospheric-land generalized model had the lowest REA factors. However, in replicating present-day climate, the pairing of the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics' Regional Climate Model Version 3 with the Geophysical Fluid-Dynamics Laboratory atmospheric-land generalized model was superior. Shifts of extreme precipitation in the 24-hour event were measured using precipitation magnitude for each frequency in the annual maximum series, and the difference frequency curve in the generalized extreme-value-function parameters. The average trend of all RCM pairings implied no significant shift in the winter annual maximum series, however the REA-selected models showed an increase in annual-season precipitation extremes: 0.37 inches for the 100-year return period and for the winter season suggested approximately 0.57 inches for the same return period. Shifts of extreme precipitation were estimated using predictions 70 years into the future based on RCMs. Although these models do not provide climate information for the intervening 70 year period, the models provide an assertion on the behavior of future climate. The shift in extreme precipitation may be significant in the frequency distribution function, and will vary depending on each model-pairing condition. The proposed methodology addresses the many uncertainties associated with the current methodologies dealing with extreme precipitation.
ContributorsRiaño, Alejandro (Author) / Mays, Larry W. (Thesis advisor) / Vivoni, Enrique (Committee member) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Woody plant encroachment is a worldwide phenomenon linked to water availability in semiarid systems. Nevertheless, the implications of woody plant encroachment on the hydrologic cycle are poorly understood, especially at the catchment scale. This study takes place in a pair of small semiarid rangeland undergoing the encroachment of Prosopis velutina Woot., or velvet mesquite tree. The similarly-sized basins are in close proximity, leading to equivalent meteorological and soil conditions. One basin was treated for mesquite in 1974, while the other represents the encroachment process. A sensor network was installed to measure ecohydrological states and fluxes, including precipitation, runoff, soil moisture and evapotranspiration. Observations from June 1, 2011 through September 30, 2012 are presented to describe the seasonality and spatial variability of ecohydrological conditions during the North American Monsoon (NAM). Runoff observations are linked to historical changes in runoff production in each watershed. Observations indicate that the mesquite-treated basin generates more runoff pulses and greater runoff volume for small rainfall events, while the mesquite-encroached basin generates more runoff volume for large rainfall events. A distributed hydrologic model is applied to both basins to investigate the runoff threshold processes experienced during the NAM. Vegetation in the two basins is classified into grass, mesquite, or bare soil using high-resolution imagery. Model predictions are used to investigate the vegetation controls on soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and runoff generation. The distributed model shows that grass and mesquite sites retain the highest levels of soil moisture. The model also captures the runoff generation differences between the two watersheds that have been observed over the past decade. Generally, grass sites in the mesquite-treated basin have less plant interception and evapotranspiration, leading to higher soil moisture that supports greater runoff for small rainfall events. For large rainfall events, the mesquite-encroached basin produces greater runoff due to its higher fraction of bare soil. The results of this study show that a distributed hydrologic model can be used to explain runoff threshold processes linked to woody plant encroachment at the catchment-scale and provides useful interpretations for rangeland management in semiarid areas.
ContributorsPierini, Nicole A (Author) / Vivoni, Enrique R (Thesis advisor) / Wang, Zhi-Hua (Committee member) / Mays, Larry W. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Surgery as a profession requires significant training to improve both clinical decision making and psychomotor proficiency. In the medical knowledge domain, tools have been developed, validated, and accepted for evaluation of surgeons' competencies. However, assessment of the psychomotor skills still relies on the Halstedian model of apprenticeship, wherein surgeons are observed during residency for judgment of their skills. Although the value of this method of skills assessment cannot be ignored, novel methodologies of objective skills assessment need to be designed, developed, and evaluated that augment the traditional approach. Several sensor-based systems have been developed to measure a user's skill quantitatively, but use of sensors could interfere with skill execution and thus limit the potential for evaluating real-life surgery. However, having a method to judge skills automatically in real-life conditions should be the ultimate goal, since only with such features that a system would be widely adopted. This research proposes a novel video-based approach for observing surgeons' hand and surgical tool movements in minimally invasive surgical training exercises as well as during laparoscopic surgery. Because our system does not require surgeons to wear special sensors, it has the distinct advantage over alternatives of offering skills assessment in both learning and real-life environments. The system automatically detects major skill-measuring features from surgical task videos using a computing system composed of a series of computer vision algorithms and provides on-screen real-time performance feedback for more efficient skill learning. Finally, the machine-learning approach is used to develop an observer-independent composite scoring model through objective and quantitative measurement of surgical skills. To increase effectiveness and usability of the developed system, it is integrated with a cloud-based tool, which automatically assesses surgical videos upload to the cloud.
ContributorsIslam, Gazi (Author) / Li, Baoxin (Thesis advisor) / Liang, Jianming (Thesis advisor) / Dinu, Valentin (Committee member) / Greenes, Robert (Committee member) / Smith, Marshall (Committee member) / Kahol, Kanav (Committee member) / Patel, Vimla L. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
This dissertation investigates the condition of skeletal muscle insulin resistance using bioinformatics and computational biology approaches. Drawing from several studies and numerous data sources, I have attempted to uncover molecular mechanisms at multiple levels. From the detailed atomistic simulations of a single protein, to datamining approaches applied at the systems biology level, I provide new targets to explore for the research community. Furthermore I present a new online web resource that unifies various bioinformatics databases to enable discovery of relevant features in 3D protein structures.
ContributorsMielke, Clinton (Author) / Mandarino, Lawrence (Committee member) / LaBaer, Joshua (Committee member) / Magee, D. Mitchell (Committee member) / Dinu, Valentin (Committee member) / Willis, Wayne (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Land-atmosphere interactions of semiarid shrublands have garnered significant scientific interest. One of the main tools used for this research is the eddy covariance (EC) method, which measures fluxes of energy, water vapor, and carbon dioxide. EC fluxes can be difficult to interpret due to complexities within the EC footprint (i.e. the surface conditions that contribute to the flux measurements). Most EC studies use a small number of soil probes to estimate the land surface states underlying the measured fluxes, which likely undersamples the footprint-scale conditions, especially in semiarid shrublands which are characterized by high spatial and temporal variability. In this study, I installed a dense network of soil moisture and temperature probe profiles in the footprint region of an EC tower at two semiarid sites: a woody savanna in southern Arizona and a mixed shrubland in southern New Mexico. For data from May to September 2013, I link land surface states to EC fluxes through daily footprints estimated using an analytical model. Novel approaches are utilized to partition evapotranspiration, estimate EC footprint soil states, connect differences in fluxes to footprint composition, and assess key drivers behind soil state variability. I verify the hypothesis that a small number of soil probes poorly estimates the footprint conditions for soil moisture, due to its high spatial variability. Soil temperature, however, behaves more consistently in time and space. As such, distributed surface measurements within the EC footprint allow for stronger ties between evapotranspiration and moisture, but demonstrate no significant improvement in connecting sensible heat flux and temperature. I also find that in these systems vegetation cover appears to have stronger controls on soil moisture and temperature than does soil texture. Further, I explore the influence of footprint vegetation composition on the measured fluxes, which reveals that during the monsoon season evaporative fraction tends to increase with footprint bare soil coverage for the New Mexico site and that the ratio of daily transpiration to evapotranspiration increases with grass coverage at the Arizona site. The thesis results are useful for understanding the land-atmosphere interactions of these ecosystems and for guiding future EC studies in heterogeneous landscapes.
ContributorsAnderson, Cody Alan (Author) / Vivoni, Enrique R (Thesis advisor) / Wang, Zhihua (Committee member) / Mays, Larry W. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
The living world we inhabit and observe is extraordinarily complex. From the perspective of a person analyzing data about the living world, complexity is most commonly encountered in two forms: 1) in the sheer size of the datasets that must be analyzed and the physical number of mathematical computations necessary to obtain an answer and 2) in the underlying structure of the data, which does not conform to classical normal theory statistical assumptions and includes clustering and unobserved latent constructs. Until recently, the methods and tools necessary to effectively address the complexity of biomedical data were not ordinarily available. The utility of four methods--High Performance Computing, Monte Carlo Simulations, Multi-Level Modeling and Structural Equation Modeling--designed to help make sense of complex biomedical data are presented here.
ContributorsBrown, Justin Reed (Author) / Dinu, Valentin (Thesis advisor) / Johnson, William (Committee member) / Petitti, Diana (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
Critical care environments are complex in nature. Fluctuating team dynamics and the plethora of technology and equipment create unforeseen demands on clinicians. Such environments become chaotic very quickly due to the chronic exposure to unpredictable clusters of events. In order to cope with this complexity, clinicians tend to develop ad-hoc adaptations to function in an effective manner. It is these adaptations or "deviations" from expected behaviors that provide insight into the processes that shape the overall behavior of the complex system. The research described in this manuscript examines the cognitive basis of clinicians' adaptive mechanisms and presents a methodology for studying the same. Examining interactions in complex systems is difficult due to the disassociation between the nature of the environment and the tools available to analyze underlying processes. In this work, the use of a mixed methodology framework to study trauma critical care, a complex environment, is presented. The hybrid framework supplements existing methods of data collection (qualitative observations) with quantitative methods (use of electronic tags) to capture activities in the complex system. Quantitative models of activities (using Hidden Markov Modeling) and theoretical models of deviations were developed to support this mixed methodology framework. The quantitative activity models developed were tested with a set of fifteen simulated activities that represent workflow in trauma care. A mean recognition rate of 87.5% was obtained in automatically recognizing activities. Theoretical models, on the other hand, were developed using field observations of 30 trauma cases. The analysis of the classification schema (with substantial inter-rater reliability) and 161 deviations identified shows that expertise and role played by the clinician in the trauma team influences the nature of deviations made (p<0.01). The results shows that while expert clinicians deviate to innovate, deviations of novices often result in errors. Experts' flexibility and adaptiveness allow their deviations to generate innovative ideas, in particular when dynamic adjustments are required in complex situations. The findings suggest that while adherence to protocols and standards is important for novice practitioners to reduce medical errors and ensure patient safety, there is strong need for training novices in coping with complex situations as well.
ContributorsVankipuram, Mithra (Author) / Greenes, Robert A (Thesis advisor) / Patel, Vimla L. (Thesis advisor) / Petitti, Diana B. (Committee member) / Dinu, Valentin (Committee member) / Smith, Marshall L. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
This work involved the analysis of a public health system, and the design, development and deployment of enterprise informatics architecture, and sustainable community methods to address problems with the current public health system. Specifically, assessment of the Nationally Notifiable Disease Surveillance System (NNDSS) was instrumental in forming the design of the current implementation at the Southern Nevada Health District (SNHD). The result of the system deployment at SNHD was considered as a basis for projecting the practical application and benefits of an enterprise architecture. This approach has resulted in a sustainable platform to enhance the practice of public health by improving the quality and timeliness of data, effectiveness of an investigation, and reporting across the continuum.
ContributorsKriseman, Jeffrey Michael (Author) / Dinu, Valentin (Thesis advisor) / Greenes, Robert (Committee member) / Johnson, William (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
Immunosignaturing is a technology that allows the humoral immune response to be observed through the binding of antibodies to random sequence peptides. The immunosignaturing microarray is based on complex mixtures of antibodies binding to arrays of random sequence peptides in a multiplexed fashion. There are computational and statistical challenges to the analysis of immunosignaturing data. The overall aim of my dissertation is to develop novel computational and statistical methods for immunosignaturing data to access its potential for diagnostics and drug discovery. Firstly, I discovered that a classification algorithm Naive Bayes which leverages the biological independence of the probes on our array in such a way as to gather more information outperforms other classification algorithms due to speed and accuracy. Secondly, using this classifier, I then tested the specificity and sensitivity of immunosignaturing platform for its ability to resolve four different diseases (pancreatic cancer, pancreatitis, type 2 diabetes and panIN) that target the same organ (pancreas). These diseases were separated with >90% specificity from controls and from each other. Thirdly, I observed that the immunosignature of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular complications are unique, consistent, and reproducible and can be separated by 100% accuracy from controls. But when these two complications arise in the same person, the resultant immunosignature is quite different in that of individuals with only one disease. I developed a method to trace back from informative random peptides in disease signatures to the potential antigen(s). Hence, I built a decipher system to trace random peptides in type 1 diabetes immunosignature to known antigens. Immunosignaturing, unlike the ELISA, has the ability to not only detect the presence of response but also absence of response during a disease. I observed, not only higher but also lower peptides intensities can be mapped to antigens in type 1 diabetes. To study immunosignaturing potential for population diagnostics, I studied effect of age, gender and geographical location on immunosignaturing data. For its potential to be a health monitoring technology, I proposed a single metric Coefficient of Variation that has shown potential to change significantly when a person enters a disease state.
ContributorsKukreja, Muskan (Author) / Johnston, Stephen Albert (Thesis advisor) / Stafford, Phillip (Committee member) / Dinu, Valentin (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
The North American Monsoon (NAM) is characterized by high inter- and intra-seasonal variability, and potential climate change effects have been forecasted to increase this variability. The potential effects of climate change to the hydrology of the southwestern U.S. is of interest as they could have consequences to water resources, floods, and land management. I applied a distributed watershed model, the Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN)-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS), to the Beaver Creek basin in Arizona. This sub-basin of the Verde River is representative of the regional topography, land cover, and soils distribution. As such, it can serve to illustrate the utility of distributed models for change assessment studies. Model calibration was performed utilizing radar-based NEXRAD data, and comparisons were done to two additional sources of precipitation data: ground-based stations and the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). Comparisons focus on the spatiotemporal distributions of precipitation and stream discharge. Utilizing the calibrated model, I applied scenarios from the HadCM3 General Circulation Model (GCM) which was dynamically downscaled by the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, to refine the representation of Arizona's regional climate. Two time periods were examined, a historical 1990-2000 and a future 2031-2040, to evaluate the hydrologic consequence in the form of differences and similarities between the decadal averages for temperature, precipitation, stream discharge and evapotranspiration. Results indicate an increase in mean air temperature over the basin by 1.2 ºC. The average decadal precipitation amounts increased between the two time periods by 2.4 times that of the historical period and had an increase in variability that was 3 times the historical period. For the future period, modeled streamflow discharge in the summer increased by a factor of 3. There was no significant change in the average evapotranspiration (ET). Overall trends of increase precipitation and variability for future climate scenarios have a more significant effect on the hydrologic response than temperature increases in the system during NAM in this study basin. The results from this study suggest that water management in the Beaver Creek will need to adapt to higher summer streamflow amounts.
ContributorsHawkins, Gretchen (Author) / Vivoni, Enrique R. (Thesis advisor) / Semken, Steven (Committee member) / Mays, Larry W. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012