Carefully calibrated transmission models have the potential to guide public health officials on the nature and scale of the interventions required to control epidemics. In the context of the ongoing Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic in Liberia, Drake and colleagues, in this issue of PLOS Biology, employed an elegant modeling approach to capture the distributions of the number of secondary cases that arise in the community and health care settings in the context of changing population behaviors and increasing hospital capacity. Their findings underscore the role of increasing the rate of safe burials and the fractions of infectious individuals who seek hospitalization together with hospital capacity to achieve epidemic control. However, further modeling efforts of EVD transmission and control in West Africa should utilize the spatial-temporal patterns of spread in the region by incorporating spatial heterogeneity in the transmission process. Detailed datasets are urgently needed to characterize temporal changes in population behaviors, contact networks at different spatial scales, population mobility patterns, adherence to infection control measures in hospital settings, and hospitalization and reporting rates.

Background: Ebola virus disease (EVD) has generated a large epidemic in West Africa since December 2013. This mini-review is aimed to clarify and illustrate different theoretical concepts of infectiousness in order to compare the infectiousness across different communicable diseases including EVD.

Methods: We employed a transmission model that rests on the renewal process in order to clarify theoretical concepts on infectiousness, namely the basic reproduction number, R₀, which measures the infectiousness per generation of cases, the force of infection (i.e. the hazard rate of infection), the intrinsic growth rate (i.e. infectiousness per unit time) and the per-contact probability of infection (i.e. infectiousness per effective contact).

Results: Whereas R₀ of EVD is similar to that of influenza, the growth rate (i.e. the measure of infectiousness per unit time) for EVD was shown to be comparatively lower than that for influenza. Moreover, EVD and influenza differ in mode of transmission whereby the probability of transmission per contact is lower for EVD compared to that of influenza.

Conclusions: The slow spread of EVD associated with the need for physical contact with body fluids supports social distancing measures including contact tracing and case isolation. Descriptions and interpretations of different variables quantifying infectiousness need to be used clearly and objectively in the scientific community and for risk communication.

Driven by an increasing number of studies demonstrating its relevance to a broad variety of disease states, the bioenergy production phenotype has been widely characterized at the bulk sample level. Its cell-to-cell variability, a key player associated with cancer cell survival and recurrence, however, remains poorly understood due to ensemble averaging of the current approaches. We present a technology platform for performing oxygen consumption and extracellular acidification measurements of several hundreds to 1,000 individual cells per assay, while offering simultaneous analysis of cellular communication effects on the energy production phenotype. The platform comprises two major components: a tandem optical sensor for combined oxygen and pH detection, and a microwell device for isolation and analysis of single and few cells in hermetically sealed sub-nanoliter chambers. Our approach revealed subpopulations of cells with aberrant energy production profiles and enables determination of cellular response variability to electron transfer chain inhibitors and ion uncouplers.

Functional and molecular cell-to-cell variability is pivotal at the cellular, tissue and whole-organism levels. Yet, the ultimate goal of directly correlating the function of the individual cell with its biomolecular profile remains elusive. We present a platform for integrated analysis of functional and transcriptional phenotypes in the same single cells. We investigated changes in the cellular respiration and gene expression diversity resulting from adaptation to repeated episodes of acute hypoxia in a premalignant progression model. We find differential, progression stage-specific alterations in phenotypic heterogeneity and identify cells with aberrant phenotypes. To our knowledge, this study is the first demonstration of an integrated approach to elucidate how heterogeneity at the transcriptional level manifests in the physiologic profile of individual cells in the context of disease progression.

The histone deacetylase (HDAC) inhibitor vorinostat has received significant attention in recent years as an ‘epigenetic’ drug used to treat solid tumors. However, its mechanisms of action are not entirely understood, particularly with regard to its interaction with the aberrations in 3D nuclear structure that accompany neoplastic progression. We investigated the impact of vorinostat on human esophageal epithelial cell lines derived from normal, metaplastic (pre-cancerous), and malignant tissue. Using a combination of novel optical computed tomography (CT)-based quantitative 3D absorption microscopy and conventional confocal fluorescence microscopy, we show that subjecting malignant cells to vorinostat preferentially alters their 3D nuclear architecture relative to non-cancerous cells. Optical CT (cell CT) imaging of fixed single cells showed that drug-treated cancer cells exhibit significant alterations in nuclear morphometry. Confocal microscopy revealed that vorinostat caused changes in the distribution of H3K9ac-marked euchromatin and H3K9me3-marked constitutive heterochromatin. Additionally, 3D immuno-FISH showed that drug-induced expression of the DNA repair gene MGMT was accompanied by spatial relocation toward the center of the nucleus in the nuclei of metaplastic but not in non-neoplastic cells. Our data suggest that vorinostat’s differential modulation of 3D nuclear architecture in normal and abnormal cells could play a functional role in its anti-cancer action.

In carcinogenesis, intercellular interactions within and between cell types are critical but remain poorly understood. We present a study on intercellular interactions between normal and premalignant epithelial cells and their functional relevance in the context of premalignant to malignant progression in Barrett’s esophagus. Using whole transcriptome profiling we found that in the presence of normal epithelial cells, dysplastic cells but not normal cells, exhibit marked down-regulation of a number of key signaling pathways, including the transforming growth factor beta (TGFβ) and epithelial growth factor (EGF). Functional assays revealed both cell types showed repressed proliferation and significant changes in motility (speed, displacement and directionality) as a result of interactions between the two cell types. Cellular interactions appear to be mediated through both direct cell-cell contact and secreted ligands. The findings of this study are important in that they reveal, for the first time, the effects of cellular communication on gene expression and cellular function between premalignant (dysplastic) epithelial cells and their normal counterparts.

Migration is a fundamental cellular behavior that plays an indispensable role in development and homeostasis, but can also contribute to pathology such as cancer metastasis. Due to its relevance to many aspects of human health, the ability to accurately measure cell migration is of broad interest, and numerous approaches have been developed. One of the most commonly employed approaches, because of its simplicity and throughput, is the exclusion zone assay in which cells are allowed to migrate into an initially cell-free region. A major drawback of this assay is that it relies on simply counting cells in the exclusion zone and therefore cannot distinguish the effects of proliferation from migration. We report here a simple modification to the exclusion zone migration assay that exclusively measures cell migration and is not affected by proliferation. This approach makes use of a lineage-tracing vital stain that is retained through cell generations and effectively reads out migration relative to the original, parental cell population. This modification is simple, robust, non-perturbing, and inexpensive. We validate the method in a panel of cell lines under conditions that inhibit or promote migration and demonstrate its use in normal and cancer cell lines as well as primary cells.

The ongoing Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas poses a major global public health emergency. While ZIKV is transmitted from human to human by bites of Aedes mosquitoes, recent evidence indicates that ZIKV can also be transmitted via sexual contact with cases of sexually transmitted ZIKV reported in Argentina, Canada, Chile, France, Italy, New Zealand, Peru, Portugal, and the USA. Yet, the role of sexual transmission on the spread and control of ZIKV infection is not well-understood. We introduce a mathematical model to investigate the impact of mosquito-borne and sexual transmission on the spread and control of ZIKV and calibrate the model to ZIKV epidemic data from Brazil, Colombia, and El Salvador. Parameter estimates yielded a basic reproduction number R_0 = 2.055 (95% CI: 0.523–6.300), in which the percentage contribution of sexual transmission is 3.044% (95% CI: 0.123–45.73). Our sensitivity analyses indicate that R_0 is most sensitive to the biting rate and mortality rate of mosquitoes while sexual transmission increases the risk of infection and epidemic size and prolongs the outbreak. Prevention and control efforts against ZIKV should target both the mosquito-borne and sexual transmission routes.

Background: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), a rodent-borne infectious disease, is one of the most serious public health threats in China. Increasing our understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns of HFRS infections could guide local prevention and control strategies.

Methodology/Principal Findings: We employed statistical models to analyze HFRS case data together with environmental data from the Dongting Lake district during 2005–2010. Specifically, time-specific ecologic niche models (ENMs) were used to quantify and identify risk factors associated with HFRS transmission as well as forecast seasonal variation in risk across geographic areas. Results showed that the Maximum Entropy model provided the best predictive ability (AUC = 0.755). Time-specific Maximum Entropy models showed that the potential risk areas of HFRS significantly varied across seasons. High-risk areas were mainly found in the southeastern and southwestern areas of the Dongting Lake district. Our findings based on models focused on the spring and winter seasons showed particularly good performance. The potential risk areas were smaller in March, May and August compared with those identified for June, July and October to December. Both normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and land use types were found to be the dominant risk factors.

Conclusions/Significance: Our findings indicate that time-specific ENMs provide a useful tool to forecast the spatial and temporal risk of HFRS.

Background:
Pandemic influenza is said to 'shift mortality' to younger age groups; but also to spare a subpopulation of the elderly population. Does one of these effects dominate? Might this have important ramifications?

Methods: We estimated age-specific excess mortality rates for all-years for which data were available in the 20th century for Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the UK, and the USA for people older than 44 years of age. We modeled variation with age, and standardized estimates to allow direct comparison across age groups and countries. Attack rate data for four pandemics were assembled.

Results: For nearly all seasons, an exponential model characterized mortality data extremely well. For seasons of emergence and a variable number of seasons following, however, a subpopulation above a threshold age invariably enjoyed reduced mortality. 'Immune escape', a stepwise increase in mortality among the oldest elderly, was observed a number of seasons after both the A(H2N2) and A(H3N2) pandemics. The number of seasons from emergence to escape varied by country. For the latter pandemic, mortality rates in four countries increased for younger age groups but only in the season following that of emergence. Adaptation to both emergent viruses was apparent as a progressive decrease in mortality rates, which, with two exceptions, was seen only in younger age groups. Pandemic attack rate variation with age was estimated to be similar across four pandemics with very different mortality impact.

Conclusions: In all influenza pandemics of the 20th century, emergent viruses resembled those that had circulated previously within the lifespan of then-living people. Such individuals were relatively immune to the emergent strain, but this immunity waned with mutation of the emergent virus. An immune subpopulation complicates and may invalidate vaccine trials. Pandemic influenza does not 'shift' mortality to younger age groups; rather, the mortality level is reset by the virulence of the emerging virus and is moderated by immunity of past experience. In this study, we found that after immune escape, older age groups showed no further mortality reduction, despite their being the principal target of conventional influenza vaccines. Vaccines incorporating variants of pandemic viruses seem to provide little benefit to those previously immune. If attack rates truly are similar across pandemics, it must be the case that immunity to the pandemic virus does not prevent infection, but only mitigates the consequences.