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Intervertebral Disc Degeneration (IVDD) is a complex phenomenon characterizing the desiccation and structural compromise of the primary joint in the human spine. The intervertebral disc (IVD) serves to connect vertebral bodies, cushion shock, and allow for flexion and extension of the vertebral column. Often presenting in the 4th or 5th decades of life as low back pain, this disease was originally believed to be the result of natural “wear and tear” coupled with repetitive mechanical insult, and as such most studies focus on patients between 40 and 50 years of age. Research over the past two decades, however, has demonstrated that environmental factors have only a modest effect on disc degeneration, with genetic influences playing a much more substantial role. Extensive research has focused on this process, though definitive risk factors and a clear pathophysiology have proven elusive. The aim of this study was to assemble a cohort of patients exhibiting definitive signs of degeneration who were well below the average age of presentation, with minimal or no exposure to suspected environmental risk factors and to conduct a targeted genome analysis in an attempt to elucidate a common genetic component. Through whole genome sequencing and analysis, the results corroborated findings in a previous study, as well as demonstrated a potential connection and influence between mutations found in IVD structural or functional genes, and the provocation of IVDD. Though the sample size was limited in scale and age, these findings suggest that further IVDD research into the association of variants in collagen, aggrecan and the insulin-like growth factor receptor genes of young patients with an early presentation of disc degeneration and minimal exposure to suspected risk factors is merited.
ContributorsFulton, Travis (Author) / Liebig, Juergen (Thesis advisor) / Neisewander, Janet (Committee member) / Theodore, Nicholas (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
Extraordinary medical advances have led to significant reductions in the burden of infectious diseases in humans. However, infectious diseases still account for more than 13 million annual deaths. This large burden is partly due to some pathogens having found suitable conditions to emerge and spread in denser and more connected host populations, and others having evolved to escape the pressures imposed by the rampant use of antimicrobials. It is then critical to improve our understanding of how diseases spread in these modern landscapes, characterized by new host population structures and socio-economic environments, as well as containment measures such as the deployment of drugs. Thus, the motivation of this dissertation is two-fold. First, we study, using both data-driven and modeling approaches, the the spread of infectious diseases in urban areas. As a case study, we use confirmed-cases data on sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) in the United States to assess the conduciveness of population size of urban areas and their socio-economic characteristics as predictors of STD incidence. We find that the scaling of STD incidence in cities is superlinear, and that the percent of African-Americans residing in cities largely determines these statistical patterns. Since disparities in access to health care are often exacerbated in urban areas, within this project we also develop two modeling frameworks to study the effect of health care disparities on epidemic outcomes. Discrepant results between the two approaches indicate that knowledge of the shape of the recovery period distribution, not just its mean and variance, is key for assessing the epidemiological impact of inequalities. The second project proposes to study, from a modeling perspective, the spread of drug resistance in human populations featuring vital dynamics, stochasticity and contact structure. We derive effective treatment regimes that minimize both the overall disease burden and the spread of resistance. Additionally, targeted treatment in structured host populations may lead to higher levels of drug resistance, and if drug-resistant strains are compensated, they can spread widely even when the wild-type strain is below its epidemic threshold.
ContributorsPatterson-Lomba, Oscar (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Thesis advisor) / Towers, Sherry (Thesis advisor) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Warning coloration deters predators from attacking prey that are defended, usually by being distasteful, toxic, or otherwise costly for predators to pursue and consume. Predators may have an innate response to warning colors or learn to associate them with a defense through trial and error. In general, predators should select for warning signals that are easy to learn and recognize. Previous research demonstrates long-wavelength colors (e.g. red and yellow) are effective because they are readily detected and learned. However, a number of defended animals display short-wavelength coloration (e.g. blue and violet), such as the pipevine swallowtail butterfly (Battus philenor). The role of blue coloration in warning signals had not previously been explicitly tested. My research showed in laboratory experiments that curve-billed thrashers (Toxostoma curvirostre) and Gambel's quail (Callipepla gambelii) can learn and recognize the iridescent blue of B. philenor as a warning signal and that it is innately avoided. I tested the attack rates of these colors in the field and blue was not as effective as orange. I concluded that blue colors may function as warning signals, but the effectiveness is likely dependent on the context and predator.
Blue colors are often iridescent in nature and the effect of iridescence on warning signal function was unknown. I reared B. philenor larvae under varied food deprivation treatments. Iridescent colors did not have more variation than pigment-based colors under these conditions; variation which could affect predator learning. Learning could also be affected by changes in appearance, as iridescent colors change in both hue and brightness as the angle of illuminating light and viewer change in relation to the color surface. Iridescent colors can also be much brighter than pigment-based colors and iridescent animals can statically display different hues. I tested these potential effects on warning signal learning by domestic chickens (Gallus gallus domesticus) and found that variation due to the directionality of iridescence and a brighter warning signal did not influence learning. However, blue-violet was learned more readily than blue-green. These experiments revealed that the directionality of iridescent coloration does not likely negatively affect its potential effectiveness as a warning signal.
Blue colors are often iridescent in nature and the effect of iridescence on warning signal function was unknown. I reared B. philenor larvae under varied food deprivation treatments. Iridescent colors did not have more variation than pigment-based colors under these conditions; variation which could affect predator learning. Learning could also be affected by changes in appearance, as iridescent colors change in both hue and brightness as the angle of illuminating light and viewer change in relation to the color surface. Iridescent colors can also be much brighter than pigment-based colors and iridescent animals can statically display different hues. I tested these potential effects on warning signal learning by domestic chickens (Gallus gallus domesticus) and found that variation due to the directionality of iridescence and a brighter warning signal did not influence learning. However, blue-violet was learned more readily than blue-green. These experiments revealed that the directionality of iridescent coloration does not likely negatively affect its potential effectiveness as a warning signal.
ContributorsPegram, Kimberly Vann (Author) / Rutowski, Ronald L (Thesis advisor) / Hoelldobler, Berthold (Committee member) / Liebig, Juergen (Committee member) / McGraw, Kevin (Committee member) / Smith, Brian H. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
The coordination of group behavior in the social insects is representative of a broader phenomenon in nature, emergent biological complexity. In such systems, it is believed that large-scale patterns result from the interaction of relatively simple subunits. This dissertation involved the study of one such system: the social foraging of the ant Temnothorax rugatulus. Physically tiny with small population sizes, these cavity-dwelling ants provide a good model system to explore the mechanisms and ultimate origins of collective behavior in insect societies. My studies showed that colonies robustly exploit sugar water. Given a choice between feeders unequal in quality, colonies allocate more foragers to the better feeder. If the feeders change in quality, colonies are able to reallocate their foragers to the new location of the better feeder. These qualities of flexibility and allocation could be explained by the nature of positive feedback (tandem run recruitment) that these ants use. By observing foraging colonies with paint-marked ants, I was able to determine the `rules' that individuals follow: foragers recruit more and give up less when they find a better food source. By altering the nutritional condition of colonies, I found that these rules are flexible - attuned to the colony state. In starved colonies, individual ants are more likely to explore and recruit to food sources than in well-fed colonies. Similar to honeybees, Temmnothorax foragers appear to modulate their exploitation and recruitment behavior in response to environmental and social cues. Finally, I explored the influence of ecology (resource distribution) on the foraging success of colonies. Larger colonies showed increased consistency and a greater rate of harvest than smaller colonies, but this advantage was mediated by the distribution of resources. While patchy or rare food sources exaggerated the relative success of large colonies, regularly (or easily found) distributions leveled the playing field for smaller colonies. Social foraging in ant societies can best be understood when we view the colony as a single organism and the phenotype - group size, communication, and individual behavior - as integrated components of a homeostatic unit.
ContributorsShaffer, Zachary (Author) / Pratt, Stephen C (Thesis advisor) / Hölldobler, Bert (Committee member) / Janssen, Marco (Committee member) / Fewell, Jennifer (Committee member) / Liebig, Juergen (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Urban scaling analysis has introduced a new scientific paradigm to the study of cities. With it, the notions of size, heterogeneity and structure have taken a leading role. These notions are assumed to be behind the causes for why cities differ from one another, sometimes wildly. However, the mechanisms by which size, heterogeneity and structure shape the general statistical patterns that describe urban economic output are still unclear. Given the rapid rate of urbanization around the globe, we need precise and formal mathematical understandings of these matters. In this context, I perform in this dissertation probabilistic, distributional and computational explorations of (i) how the broadness, or narrowness, of the distribution of individual productivities within cities determines what and how we measure urban systemic output, (ii) how urban scaling may be expressed as a statistical statement when urban metrics display strong stochasticity, (iii) how the processes of aggregation constrain the variability of total urban output, and (iv) how the structure of urban skills diversification within cities induces a multiplicative process in the production of urban output.
ContributorsGómez-Liévano, Andrés (Author) / Lobo, Jose (Thesis advisor) / Muneepeerakul, Rachata (Thesis advisor) / Bettencourt, Luis M. A. (Committee member) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
The increased number of novel pathogens that potentially threaten the human population has motivated the development of mathematical and computational modeling approaches for forecasting epidemic impact and understanding key environmental characteristics that influence the spread of diseases. Yet, in the case that substantial uncertainty surrounds the transmission process during a rapidly developing infectious disease outbreak, complex mechanistic models may be too difficult to be calibrated quick enough for policy makers to make informed decisions. Simple phenomenological models that rely on a small number of parameters can provide an initial platform for assessing the epidemic trajectory, estimating the reproduction number and quantifying the disease burden from the early epidemic phase.
Chapter 1 provides background information and motivation for infectious disease forecasting and outlines the rest of the thesis.
In chapter 2, logistic patch models are used to assess and forecast the 2013-2015 West Africa Zaire ebolavirus epidemic. In particular, this chapter is concerned with comparing and contrasting the effects that spatial heterogeneity has on the forecasting performance of the cumulative infected case counts reported during the epidemic.
In chapter 3, two simple phenomenological models inspired from population biology are used to assess the Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics (RAPIDD) Ebola Challenge; a simulated epidemic that generated 4 infectious disease scenarios. Because of the nature of the synthetically generated data, model predictions are compared to exact epidemiological quantities used in the simulation.
In chapter 4, these models are applied to the 1904 Plague epidemic that occurred in Bombay. This chapter provides evidence that these simple models may be applicable to infectious diseases no matter the disease transmission mechanism.
Chapter 5, uses the patch models from chapter 2 to explore how migration in the 1904 Plague epidemic changes the final epidemic size.
The final chapter is an interdisciplinary project concerning within-host dynamics of cereal yellow dwarf virus-RPV, a plant pathogen from a virus group that infects over 150 grass species. Motivated by environmental nutrient enrichment due to anthropological activities, mathematical models are employed to investigate the relevance of resource competition to pathogen and host dynamics.
Chapter 1 provides background information and motivation for infectious disease forecasting and outlines the rest of the thesis.
In chapter 2, logistic patch models are used to assess and forecast the 2013-2015 West Africa Zaire ebolavirus epidemic. In particular, this chapter is concerned with comparing and contrasting the effects that spatial heterogeneity has on the forecasting performance of the cumulative infected case counts reported during the epidemic.
In chapter 3, two simple phenomenological models inspired from population biology are used to assess the Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics (RAPIDD) Ebola Challenge; a simulated epidemic that generated 4 infectious disease scenarios. Because of the nature of the synthetically generated data, model predictions are compared to exact epidemiological quantities used in the simulation.
In chapter 4, these models are applied to the 1904 Plague epidemic that occurred in Bombay. This chapter provides evidence that these simple models may be applicable to infectious diseases no matter the disease transmission mechanism.
Chapter 5, uses the patch models from chapter 2 to explore how migration in the 1904 Plague epidemic changes the final epidemic size.
The final chapter is an interdisciplinary project concerning within-host dynamics of cereal yellow dwarf virus-RPV, a plant pathogen from a virus group that infects over 150 grass species. Motivated by environmental nutrient enrichment due to anthropological activities, mathematical models are employed to investigate the relevance of resource competition to pathogen and host dynamics.
ContributorsPell, Bruce (Author) / Kuang, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Committee member) / Nagy, John (Committee member) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / Gardner, Carl (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
A complex social system, whether artificial or natural, can possess its macroscopic properties as a collective, which may change in real time as a result of local behavioral interactions among a number of agents in it. If a reliable indicator is available to abstract the macrolevel states, decision makers could use it to take a proactive action, whenever needed, in order for the entire system to avoid unacceptable states or con-verge to desired ones. In realistic scenarios, however, there can be many challenges in learning a model of dynamic global states from interactions of agents, such as 1) high complexity of the system itself, 2) absence of holistic perception, 3) variability of group size, 4) biased observations on state space, and 5) identification of salient behavioral cues. In this dissertation, I introduce useful applications of macrostate estimation in complex multi-agent systems and explore effective deep learning frameworks to ad-dress the inherited challenges. First of all, Remote Teammate Localization (ReTLo)is developed in multi-robot teams, in which an individual robot can use its local interactions with a nearby robot as an information channel to estimate the holistic view of the group. Within the problem, I will show (a) learning a model of a modular team can generalize to all others to gain the global awareness of the team of variable sizes, and (b) active interactions are necessary to diversify training data and speed up the overall learning process. The complexity of the next focal system escalates to a colony of over 50 individual ants undergoing 18-day social stabilization since a chaotic event. I will utilize this natural platform to demonstrate, in contrast to (b), (c)monotonic samples only from “before chaos” can be sufficient to model the panicked society, and (d) the model can also be used to discover salient behaviors to precisely predict macrostates.
ContributorsChoi, Taeyeong (Author) / Pavlic, Theodore (Thesis advisor) / Richa, Andrea (Committee member) / Ben Amor, Heni (Committee member) / Yang, Yezhou (Committee member) / Liebig, Juergen (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2020
Description
The flexibility and robustness of social insect colonies, when they cope with challenges as integrated units, raise many questions, such as how hundreds and thousands of individual local responses are coordinated without a central controlling process. Answering such questions requires: 1. Quantifiable collective responses of colonies under specific scenarios; 2. Decomposability of the collective colony-level response into individual responses; and 3. Mechanisms to integrate the colony- and individual-level responses. In the first part of my dissertation, I explore coordinated collective responses of colonies in during the alarm response to an alarmed nestmate (chapter 2&3). I develop a machine-learning approach to quantitatively estimate the collective and individual alarm response (chapter 2). Using this methodology, I demonstrate that colony alarm responses to the introduction of alarmed nestmates can be decomposed into immediately cascading, followed by variable dampening processes. Each of those processes are found to be modulated by variation in individual alarm responsiveness, as measured by alarm response threshold and persistence of alarm behavior. This variation is modulated in turn by environmental context, in particular with task-related social context (chapter 3). In the second part of my dissertation, I examine the mechanisms responsible for colonial changes in metabolic rate during ontogeny. Prior studies have found that larger ant colonies (as for larger organisms) have lower mass-specific metabolic rates, but the mechanisms remain unclear. In a 3.5-year study on 25 colonies, metabolic rates of colonies and colony components were measured during ontogeny (chapter 4). The scaling of metabolic rate during ontogeny was fit better by segmented regression or quadratic regression models than simple linear regression models, showing that colonies do not follow a universal power-law of metabolism during the ontogenetic development. Furthermore, I showed that the scaling of colonial metabolic rates can be primarily explained by changes in the ratio of brood to adult workers, which nonlinearly affects colonial metabolic rates. At high ratios of brood to workers, colony metabolic rates are low because the metabolic rate of larvae and pupae are much lower than adult workers. However, the high colony metabolic rates were observed in colonies with moderate brood: adult ratios, because higher ratios cause adult workers to be more active and have higher metabolic rates, presumably due to the extra work required to feed more brood.
ContributorsGuo, Xiaohui (Author) / Fewell, Jennifer H (Thesis advisor) / Kang, Yun (Thesis advisor) / Harrison, Jon F (Committee member) / Liebig, Juergen (Committee member) / Pratt, Stephen C (Committee member) / Pavlic, Theodore P (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2021
Description
Background: While prior studies have quantified the mortality burden of the 1957 H2N2 influenza pandemic at broad geographic regions in the United States, little is known about the pandemic impact at a local level. Here we focus on analyzing the transmissibility and mortality burden of this pandemic in Arizona, a setting where the dry climate was promoted as reducing respiratory illness transmission yet tuberculosis prevalence was high.
Methods: Using archival death certificates from 1954 to 1961, we quantified the age-specific seasonal patterns, excess-mortality rates, and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 H2N2 pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona. By applying cyclical Serfling linear regression models to weekly mortality rates, the excess-mortality rates due to respiratory and all-causes were estimated for each age group during the pandemic period. The reproduction number was quantified from weekly data using a simple growth rate method and assumed generation intervals of 3 and 4 days. Local newspaper articles published during 1957–1958 were also examined.
Results: Excess-mortality rates varied between waves, age groups, and causes of death, but overall remained low. From October 1959-June 1960, the most severe wave of the pandemic, the absolute excess-mortality rate based on respiratory deaths per 10,000 population was 16.59 in the elderly (≥65 years). All other age groups exhibit very low excess-mortality and the typical U-shaped age-pattern was absent. However, the standardized mortality ratio was greatest (4.06) among children and young adolescents (5–14 years) from October 1957-March 1958, based on mortality rates of respiratory deaths. Transmissibility was greatest during the same 1957–1958 period, when the mean reproduction number was estimated at 1.08–1.11, assuming 3- or 4-day generation intervals with exponential or fixed distributions.
Conclusions: Maricopa County exhibited very low mortality impact associated with the 1957 influenza pandemic. Understanding the relatively low excess-mortality rates and transmissibility in Maricopa County during this historic pandemic may help public health officials prepare for and mitigate future outbreaks of influenza.
ContributorsCobos, April (Author) / Nelson, Clinton (Author) / Jehn, Megan (Author) / Viboud, Cecile (Author) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Author) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor)
Created2016-08-11
Description
Background: Mutual policing is an important mechanism for reducing conflict in cooperative groups. In societies of ants, bees, and wasps, mutual policing of worker reproduction can evolve when workers are more closely related to the queen's sons than to the sons of workers or when the costs of worker reproduction lower the inclusive fitness of workers. During colony growth, relatedness within the colony remains the same, but the costs of worker reproduction may change. The costs of worker reproduction are predicted to be greatest in incipient colonies. If the costs associated with worker reproduction outweigh the individual direct benefits to workers, policing mechanisms as found in larger colonies may be absent in incipient colonies.
Results: We investigated policing behavior across colony growth in the ant 'Camponotus floridanus.' In large colonies of this species, worker reproduction is policed by the destruction of worker-laid eggs. We found workers from incipient colonies do not exhibit policing behavior, and instead tolerate all conspecific eggs. The change in policing behavior is consistent with changes in egg surface hydrocarbons, which provide the informational basis for policing; eggs laid by queens from incipient colonies lack the characteristic hydrocarbons on the surface of eggs laid by queens from large colonies, making them chemically indistinguishable from worker-laid eggs. We also tested the response to fertility information in the context of queen tolerance. Workers from incipient colonies attacked foreign queens from large colonies; whereas workers from large colonies tolerated such queens. Workers from both incipient and large colonies attacked foreign queens from incipient colonies.
Conclusions: Our results provide novel insights into the regulation of worker reproduction in social insects at both the proximate and ultimate levels. At the proximate level, our results show that mechanisms of social regulation, such as the response to fertility signals, change dramatically over a colony's life cycle. At the ultimate level, our results emphasize the importance of factors besides relatedness in predicting the level of conflict within a colony. Our results also suggest policing may not be an important regulatory force at every stage of colony development. Changes relating to the life cycle of the colony are sufficient to account for major differences in social regulation in an insect colony. Mechanisms of conflict mediation observed in one phase of a social group's development cannot be generalized to all stages.
ContributorsMoore, Dani (Author) / Liebig, Juergen (Author) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor)
Created2010-10-27