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Mortality of 1918 influenza virus was high, partly due to bacteria coinfections. We characterize pandemic mortality in Arizona, which had high prevalence of tuberculosis. We applied regressions to over 35,000 data points to estimate the basic reproduction number and excess mortality. Age-specific mortality curves show elevated mortality for all age groups, especially the young, and senior sparing effects. The low value for reproduction number indicates that transmissibility was moderately low.
ContributorsJenner, Melinda Eva (Author) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Thesis director) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
Self-maintenance behaviors, like preening in birds, can have important effects on fitness in many animals. Birds produce preen oil, which is a mixture of volatile and non-volatile compounds, that is spread through their feathers during grooming and influences feather integrity, waterproofing, and coloration. As urban areas grow and present conditions that may demand increased feather self-maintenance (e.g. due to soiling, pollution, elevated UV exposure due to natural habitat alterations), it is important to examine how preening and preen oil may be affected by this process. I assessed variation in preen oil composition in house finches (Haemorhous mexicanus) as a function of sex, urbanization, and plumage hue, a sexually selected indicator of male quality. Preen oil samples from birds captured at urban and rural sites were analyzed using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. We detected 18 major peaks, which we tentatively identified as esters, and found that, although there were no sex or urban-rural differences in preen oil constituents, there was a significant interactive effect of sex and urbanization, with rural females and urban males having higher amounts of some components. This suggests that factors that vary with sex or urbanization, such as the timing of seasonal cycles, are affecting preen oil composition. There were no significant relationships between coloration and preen oil composition, suggesting that preen oil composition does not vary with male quality.
ContributorsBrooks, Ellen Elizabeth (Author) / McGraw, Kevin (Thesis director) / Liebig, Juergen (Committee member) / Weaver, Melinda (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
Background: While research has quantified the mortality burden of the 1957 H2N2 influenza pandemic in the United States, little is known about how the virus spread locally in Arizona, an area where the dry climate was promoted as reducing respiratory illness transmission yet tuberculosis prevalence was high.
Methods: Using archival death certificates from 1954 to 1961, this study quantified the age-specific seasonal patterns, excess-mortality rates, and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona. By applying cyclical Serfling linear regression models to weekly mortality rates, the excess-mortality rates due to respiratory and all-causes were estimated for each age group during the pandemic period. The reproduction number was quantified from weekly data using a simple growth rate method and generation intervals of 3 and 4 days. Local newspaper articles from The Arizona Republic were analyzed from 1957-1958.
Results: Excess-mortality rates varied between waves, age groups, and causes of death, but overall remained low. From October 1959-June 1960, the most severe wave of the pandemic, the absolute excess-mortality rate based on respiratory deaths per 10,000 population was 17.85 in the elderly (≥65 years). All other age groups had extremely low excess-mortality and the typical U-shaped age-pattern was absent. However, relative risk was greatest (3.61) among children and young adolescents (5-14 years) from October 1957-March 1958, based on incidence rates of respiratory deaths. Transmissibility was greatest during the same 1957-1958 period, when the mean reproduction number was 1.08-1.11, assuming 3 or 4 day generation intervals and exponential or fixed distributions.
Conclusions: Maricopa County largely avoided pandemic influenza from 1957-1961. Understanding this historical pandemic and the absence of high excess-mortality rates and transmissibility in Maricopa County may help public health officials prepare for and mitigate future outbreaks of influenza.
Methods: Using archival death certificates from 1954 to 1961, this study quantified the age-specific seasonal patterns, excess-mortality rates, and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona. By applying cyclical Serfling linear regression models to weekly mortality rates, the excess-mortality rates due to respiratory and all-causes were estimated for each age group during the pandemic period. The reproduction number was quantified from weekly data using a simple growth rate method and generation intervals of 3 and 4 days. Local newspaper articles from The Arizona Republic were analyzed from 1957-1958.
Results: Excess-mortality rates varied between waves, age groups, and causes of death, but overall remained low. From October 1959-June 1960, the most severe wave of the pandemic, the absolute excess-mortality rate based on respiratory deaths per 10,000 population was 17.85 in the elderly (≥65 years). All other age groups had extremely low excess-mortality and the typical U-shaped age-pattern was absent. However, relative risk was greatest (3.61) among children and young adolescents (5-14 years) from October 1957-March 1958, based on incidence rates of respiratory deaths. Transmissibility was greatest during the same 1957-1958 period, when the mean reproduction number was 1.08-1.11, assuming 3 or 4 day generation intervals and exponential or fixed distributions.
Conclusions: Maricopa County largely avoided pandemic influenza from 1957-1961. Understanding this historical pandemic and the absence of high excess-mortality rates and transmissibility in Maricopa County may help public health officials prepare for and mitigate future outbreaks of influenza.
ContributorsCobos, April J (Author) / Jehn, Megan (Thesis director) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
The study examines cross-cultural perceptions of wastewater reuse from 282 participants from four global sites representing varied levels of socio-economic and political development from the Global North and Global South: Spain, New Zealand, Fiji, and Guatemala. The data comes from the Global Ethnohydrology Survey conducted by the School of Human Evolution and Social Change during the summer of 2013. The Global Ethnohydrology Study is a transdisciplinary multi-year research initiative that examines the range of variation in local ecological knowledge of water issues, also known as "ethnohydrology." Participants were asked about their willingness, level of disgust, and concern with using treated wastewater for various daily activities. Additionally, they were asked to draw schematic representations of how wastewater should be treated to become drinkable again. Using visual content analysis, the drawings were coded for a variety of treatment levels and specific treatment processes. Conclusions about the perceived health implications from wastewater reuse that can stem from drinking treated wastewater were made. The relationship between humans and wastewater is one that has many direct social and health impacts on communities at large. In reaction to global limitations of freshwater, wastewater serves as a valuable resource to tap into. This research examines the cross-cultural public health concerns about treated wastewater in order to draw conclusions that can aid in strategic implementation of advocacy and public education about wastewater reuse.
ContributorsPatel, Sarah Shakir (Author) / Wutich, Amber (Thesis director) / Rice, Jacelyn (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
Collective decision making in social organism societies involves a large network of communication systems. Studying the processes behind the transmission of information allows for greater understanding of the decision making capabilities of a group. For Temnothorax rugatulus colonies, information is commonly spread in the form of tandem running, a linear recruitment pattern where a leading ant uses a short-ranged pheromone to direct a following ant to a target location (in tandem).The observed phenomenon of reverse tandem running (RTR), where a follower is lead from a target back to the home nest, has not been as extensively studied as forward tandem running and transportation recruitment activities. This study seeks to explain a potential reason for the presence of the RTR behavior; more specifically, the study explores the idea that reverse tandem run followers are being shown a specific route to the home nest by a highly experienced and efficient leading ant. Ten colonies had migrations induced experimentally in order to generate some reverse tandem running activity. Once an RTR has been observed, the follower and leader were studied for behavior and their pathways were analyzed. It was seen that while RTR paths were quite efficient (1.4x a straight line distance), followers did not experience a statistically significant improvement in their pathways between the home and target nests (based on total distance traveled) when compared to similar non-RTR ants. Further, RTR leading ants were no more efficient than other non-RTR ants. It was observed that some followers began recruiting after completion of an RTR, but the number than changed their behavior was not significant. Thus, the results of this experiment cannot conclusively show that RTR followers are utilizing reverse tandem runs to improve their routes between the home and target nests.
ContributorsColling, Blake David (Author) / Pratt, Stephen (Thesis director) / Liebig, Juergen (Committee member) / Sasaki, Takao (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor)
Created2014-12
Description
Communication amongst eusocial insect is key to their success. Ants rely on signaling to mediate many different functions within a colony such as policing and nest mate recognition. Camponotus floridanus uses chemosensory signaling in the form of cuticular hydrocarbons to regulate these functions. Each cuticular hydrocarbon profile contains numerous hydrocarbons, however it is yet to be seen if Camponotus floridanus can discriminate between linear hydrocarbons of similar length. Individual specimens were conditioned in three different ways: 5 conditioning with high concentration of sugar water (1;1 ratio), 1 conditioning with high concentration of sugar water, and 5 conditioning with low concentration of sugar water (1;4). Two linear hydrocarbons were use, C23 and C24, with C23 always being the conditioned stimulus. Specimens who were conditioned 5 times with high concentration of sugar water were the only group to show a significant response to the conditioned stimulus with a p-value of .008 and exhibited discrimination behavior 46% of the time. When compared 5 conditioning with high concentration to the other two testing conditioning groups, 1 conditioning with high concentration produced an insignificant p-value of .13 was obtained whereas when comparing it with 5 conditioning low concentration of sugar a significant p-value of .0132 was obtained. This indiciates that Camponotus floridanus are capable of discrimination however must be conditioned with high concentration of sugar water, while number of conditioning is insignificant.
ContributorsDamari, Ben Aviv (Author) / Liebig, Juergen (Thesis director) / Ghaninia, Majid (Committee member) / Pratt, Stephen (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor)
Created2014-05
Description
Cuticular hydrocarbons (CHCs) play a crucial role in social insect recognition systems. In this study we investigated mate choice in the red harvester ant, Pogonomyrmex barbatus. In Phoenix, this species has two lineages, J1 and J2, which look identical, but are genetically isolated. In the genetic caste determination (GCD) system workers and queens are determined by their genotype (i.e., workers develop from interlineage crosses, queens from intralineage crosses). As such, J1 and J2 lineages are dependent on each other in order for colonies to produce both workers and reproductive queens. Given their genetic isolation and interdependence, we hypothesized that the CHCs of alate males and queens are affected by lineage, and that differences in the CHC profile are used for mate recognition. We tested these hypotheses by analyzing the lineage distributions of actively mating pairs (n=65), and compared them with the overall distribution of male and female sexuals (n=180). We additionally analyzed the five most abundant CHC compounds for 20 of the actively mating P. barbatus alate male and queen pairs to determine how variable the two lineages are between each sex. We found that mating pair distributions did not significantly differ from those expected under a random mating system (�2= 1.4349, P= 0.6973), however, CHC profiles did differ between J1 and J2 lineages and sexes for the five most abundant CHC compounds. Our results show that random mating is taking place in this population, however given the differences observed in CHC profiles, mate recognition could be taking place.
ContributorsTula Del Moral Testai, Pedro Rafael (Co-author) / Cash, Elizabeth (Co-author) / Gadau, Juergen (Thesis director) / Liebig, Juergen (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of International Letters and Cultures (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor)
Created2014-05
Description
Evolutionary theory predicts that animal behavior is generally governed by decision rules (heuristics) which adhere to ecological rationality: the tendency to make decisions that maximize fitness in most situations the animal encounters. However, the particular heuristics used by ant colonies of the genus Temnothorax and their propensity towards ecological rationality are up for debate. These ants are adept at choosing a nest site, making a collective decision based on complex interactions between the many individual choices made by workers. Colonies will migrate between nests either upon the destruction of their current home or the discovery of a sufficiently superior nest. This study offers a descriptive analysis of the heuristics potentially used in nest-site decision-making. Colonies were offered a choice of nests characterized by the Ebbinghaus Illusion: a perceptual illusion which effectively causes the viewer to perceive a circle as larger when it is surrounded by small circles than when that same circle is surrounded by large circles. Colonies were separated into two conditions: in one, they were given the option to move to a high-quality nest surrounded by poor-quality nests, and in the other they were given the option to move to a high-quality nest surrounded by medium-quality nests. The colonies in the poor condition were found to be more likely to move to the good nest than were colonies in the medium condition at a statistically significant level. That is, they responded to the Ebbinghaus Effect in the way that is normally expected. This result was discussed in terms of its implications for the ecological rationality of the nest-site choice behavior of these ants.
ContributorsTalken, Lucas Warren (Author) / Pratt, Stephen (Thesis director) / Sasaki, Takao (Committee member) / Liebig, Juergen (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Department of Psychology (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor)
Created2014-05
Description
Background: Latinos represent 40.8% of the population in Phoenix (U.S. Census Bureau Population Division, 2010). South Phoenix, also known as the South Mountain Village, defined in geographical terms as area zip codes 85040 and 85042; is a predominantly Latino community comprised of mixed citizenship status households. During the 2010 United States Census 60.3% of the population in South Phoenix identified as Latino, 25.75% of the total population was foreign born. Of the foreign born population, 88.95% were of Latin American origin (United States Census Bureau, 2007-2011 American Community Survey). Understanding how Latino immigrants perceive differences in health between their communities in country of origin and communities in the United States is largely unknown. Irrespective of political positions, understanding how Latino immigrants perceive personal health and the health of their communities is of interest to inform public policy and implement needed interventions in the
public health sphere.
Methods: Semi-structured interviews were collected from 55 adults from the South Phoenix community between November 2009 and September 2010. Interviews were digitally recorded with participant permission and transcribed. Of those collected, 48 transcribed interviews were analyzed using a codebook designed by the researcher. Percent agreement evaluated inter-rater reliability.Results: Latino immigrants in South Phoenix largely agree that health quality is heavily dependent on personal responsibility and not an intrinsic attribute of a given place. Emotional contentedness and distress, both factors of mental health, are impacted by cross-cultural differences between Latino and U.S. culture systems.
Conclusions: As people’s personal perceptions of differences in health are complex concepts influenced by personal backgrounds, culture, and beliefs, attempting to demark a side of the border as ‘healthier’ than the other using personal perceptions is overly simplified and misses central concepts. Instead, exploration of individual variables impacting health allowed this study to gain a more nuanced understanding in how people determine quality of both personal and environmental health. While Latino migrants in South Phoenix largely agree that health is based on personal responsibility and choices, many nonetheless experience higher levels of contentedness and emotional health in their country of origin.
public health sphere.
Methods: Semi-structured interviews were collected from 55 adults from the South Phoenix community between November 2009 and September 2010. Interviews were digitally recorded with participant permission and transcribed. Of those collected, 48 transcribed interviews were analyzed using a codebook designed by the researcher. Percent agreement evaluated inter-rater reliability.Results: Latino immigrants in South Phoenix largely agree that health quality is heavily dependent on personal responsibility and not an intrinsic attribute of a given place. Emotional contentedness and distress, both factors of mental health, are impacted by cross-cultural differences between Latino and U.S. culture systems.
Conclusions: As people’s personal perceptions of differences in health are complex concepts influenced by personal backgrounds, culture, and beliefs, attempting to demark a side of the border as ‘healthier’ than the other using personal perceptions is overly simplified and misses central concepts. Instead, exploration of individual variables impacting health allowed this study to gain a more nuanced understanding in how people determine quality of both personal and environmental health. While Latino migrants in South Phoenix largely agree that health is based on personal responsibility and choices, many nonetheless experience higher levels of contentedness and emotional health in their country of origin.
ContributorsGray, Laurel (Author) / Wutich, Amber (Thesis director) / Quiroga, S. Seline (Committee member) / Nelson, Margaret (Committee member) / Slade, B. Alexandra (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor)
Created2013-05
Description
The Science of Water Art project is a collaborative work that brings together professionals, community members, college students and children to think about the role that water plays in each of our lives. Using a sample of 4th grade classrooms in Maricopa County, over 3000 drawings of children's perception of water today and in the future were collected. The 9-11 year olds were asked to draw pictures of 1) how they saw water being used in their neighborhood today (T1), and 2) how they imagined water would be used in their neighborhood 100 years from now (T2). The artwork was collected and coded for nine different themes, including: vegetation, scarcity, pollution, commercial sources of water, existing technology, technology innovation, recreational use, domestic use, and natural sources of water. Statistically significant differences were found between boys and girls for vegetation, technology and domestic use themes. This project allows for a look into how climate change and water insecurity is viewed by younger generations and gives a voice to children so that they may share their outlooks on this vital resource.
ContributorsVins, Holly Elizabeth (Author) / Wutich, Amber (Thesis director) / Newland, Judy (Committee member) / Beresford, Melissa (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of International Letters and Cultures (Contributor) / School of Social Transformation (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor)
Created2013-05