Methods: Using archival death certificates from 1954 to 1961, this study quantified the age-specific seasonal patterns, excess-mortality rates, and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona. By applying cyclical Serfling linear regression models to weekly mortality rates, the excess-mortality rates due to respiratory and all-causes were estimated for each age group during the pandemic period. The reproduction number was quantified from weekly data using a simple growth rate method and generation intervals of 3 and 4 days. Local newspaper articles from The Arizona Republic were analyzed from 1957-1958.
Results: Excess-mortality rates varied between waves, age groups, and causes of death, but overall remained low. From October 1959-June 1960, the most severe wave of the pandemic, the absolute excess-mortality rate based on respiratory deaths per 10,000 population was 17.85 in the elderly (≥65 years). All other age groups had extremely low excess-mortality and the typical U-shaped age-pattern was absent. However, relative risk was greatest (3.61) among children and young adolescents (5-14 years) from October 1957-March 1958, based on incidence rates of respiratory deaths. Transmissibility was greatest during the same 1957-1958 period, when the mean reproduction number was 1.08-1.11, assuming 3 or 4 day generation intervals and exponential or fixed distributions.
Conclusions: Maricopa County largely avoided pandemic influenza from 1957-1961. Understanding this historical pandemic and the absence of high excess-mortality rates and transmissibility in Maricopa County may help public health officials prepare for and mitigate future outbreaks of influenza.
Seroepidemiological studies before and after the epidemic wave of H1N1-2009 are useful for estimating population attack rates with a potential to validate early estimates of the reproduction number, R, in modeling studies.
Methodology/Principal Findings
Since the final epidemic size, the proportion of individuals in a population who become infected during an epidemic, is not the result of a binomial sampling process because infection events are not independent of each other, we propose the use of an asymptotic distribution of the final size to compute approximate 95% confidence intervals of the observed final size. This allows the comparison of the observed final sizes against predictions based on the modeling study (R = 1.15, 1.40 and 1.90), which also yields simple formulae for determining sample sizes for future seroepidemiological studies. We examine a total of eleven published seroepidemiological studies of H1N1-2009 that took place after observing the peak incidence in a number of countries. Observed seropositive proportions in six studies appear to be smaller than that predicted from R = 1.40; four of the six studies sampled serum less than one month after the reported peak incidence. The comparison of the observed final sizes against R = 1.15 and 1.90 reveals that all eleven studies appear not to be significantly deviating from the prediction with R = 1.15, but final sizes in nine studies indicate overestimation if the value R = 1.90 is used.
Conclusions
Sample sizes of published seroepidemiological studies were too small to assess the validity of model predictions except when R = 1.90 was used. We recommend the use of the proposed approach in determining the sample size of post-epidemic seroepidemiological studies, calculating the 95% confidence interval of observed final size, and conducting relevant hypothesis testing instead of the use of methods that rely on a binomial proportion.
The panel discusses and elucidate components of a student-to-student peer program and cover comprehensive planning aspects of personnel, communication and workflow methodologies, interdisciplinary representation, and competency building activities. They will share training and work protocols, focusing on the evolution of the program from conceptualization through implementation. The presentation is an interactive conversation between the panelists (covering varying aspects and perspectives of the program) and the audience.
The substance of this article is based upon a lightning talk given at RDAP Summit 2019.
Getting to the Core of Services: Considering the Arizona State University Library as a Core Facility
In 2014/2015, Arizona State University (ASU) Libraries, the Labriola National American Indian Data Center, and the ASU American Indian Studies Department completed an ASU Institute for Humanities Research (IHR) seed grant entitled “Carlos Montezuma’s Wassaja Newsletter: Digitization, Access and Context” to digitize all ASU held issues of the newsletter Wassaja Freedom’s Signal for the Indian, which Yavapai activist-intellectual Carlos Montezuma, MD (1866-1923) self-published during 1916-1922. The grant team additionally selected a portion of the ASU Libraries Carlos Montezuma archival collection for digitization to provide a more complete picture of Dr. Carlos Montezuma’s life and work.
The ASU grant team produced a searchable online collection on the ASU Digital Repository and created an online exhibition in conjunction with the IHR Nexus Lab’s Developing Wassaja Project. The Nexus Lab’s role at ASU is to grow the digital humanities through interdisciplinary collaborations bringing together humanities, science, and technology. The Nexus Lab partnered with the grant team to create the Developing Wassaja Project which provided an opportunity for faculty, staff, and students at ASU to engage in electronic publication through web application development.
The resulting web platform, Wassaja: A Carlos Montezuma Project, provides context for this digitized collection and facilitates community interaction, including a partnership with Dr. Montezuma’s home community the Fort McDowell Yavapai Nation. In this webcast, Digital Projects Librarian Matthew Harp, Developing Wassaja Project team member Joe Buenker (subject librarian), and grant team member Joyce Martin (librarian and curator of the Labriola National American Indian Data Center) will discuss and demonstrate the resources created and the resulting partnership with the Fort McDowell Yavapai Nation. The webcast will focus on identifying collaborators and needed skills to engage in Digital Humanities research and on identifying the stages of a collaborative project.
Participants will gain insight on working directly with diverse communities; overcoming technical limitations of traditional institutional repositories; collaborative strategies with faculty, research centers, and cultural heritage societies; solutions for moving hidden collections into an engaging digital exhibition; integrating digital humanities research and instruction with library curation; and preparing for long term costs and management issues.