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Seroepidemiological studies before and after the epidemic wave of H1N1-2009 are useful for estimating population attack rates with a potential to validate early estimates of the reproduction number, R, in modeling studies.
Methodology/Principal Findings
Since the final epidemic size, the proportion of individuals in a population who become infected during an epidemic, is not the result of a binomial sampling process because infection events are not independent of each other, we propose the use of an asymptotic distribution of the final size to compute approximate 95% confidence intervals of the observed final size. This allows the comparison of the observed final sizes against predictions based on the modeling study (R = 1.15, 1.40 and 1.90), which also yields simple formulae for determining sample sizes for future seroepidemiological studies. We examine a total of eleven published seroepidemiological studies of H1N1-2009 that took place after observing the peak incidence in a number of countries. Observed seropositive proportions in six studies appear to be smaller than that predicted from R = 1.40; four of the six studies sampled serum less than one month after the reported peak incidence. The comparison of the observed final sizes against R = 1.15 and 1.90 reveals that all eleven studies appear not to be significantly deviating from the prediction with R = 1.15, but final sizes in nine studies indicate overestimation if the value R = 1.90 is used.
Conclusions
Sample sizes of published seroepidemiological studies were too small to assess the validity of model predictions except when R = 1.90 was used. We recommend the use of the proposed approach in determining the sample size of post-epidemic seroepidemiological studies, calculating the 95% confidence interval of observed final size, and conducting relevant hypothesis testing instead of the use of methods that rely on a binomial proportion.
Animals use diverse signal types (e.g. visual, auditory) to honestly advertise their genotypic and/or phenotypic quality to prospective mates or rivals. Behavioral displays and other dynamically updateable signals (e.g. songs, vibrations) can reliably reveal an individual’s quality in real-time, but it is unclear whether more fixed traits like feather coloration, which is often developed months before breeding, still reveal an individual’s quality at the time of signal use. To address this gap, we investigated if various indices of health and condition – including body condition (residual body mass), poxvirus infection, degree of habitat urbanization, and circulating levels of ketones, glucose, vitamins, and carotenoids – were related to the expression of male plumage coloration at the start of the spring breeding season in wild male house finches (Haemorhous mexicanus), a species in which many studies have demonstrated a link between plumage redness and the health and condition of individuals at the time the feathers are grown in late summer and autumn. We found that, at the time of pair formation, plumage hue was correlated with body condition, such that redder males were in better condition (i.e. higher residual mass). Also, as in previous studies, we found that rural males had redder plumage; however, urban males had more saturated plumage. In sum, these results reveal that feather coloration developed long before breeding still can be indicative to choosy mates of a male’s current condition and suggest that females who prefer to mate with redder males may also gain proximate material benefits (e.g. better incubation provisioning) by mating with these individuals in good current condition.