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Description
Mathematical epidemiology, one of the oldest and richest areas in mathematical biology, has significantly enhanced our understanding of how pathogens emerge, evolve, and spread. Classical epidemiological models, the standard for predicting and managing the spread of infectious disease, assume that contacts between susceptible and infectious individuals depend on their relative frequency in the population. The behavioral factors that underpin contact rates are not generally addressed. There is, however, an emerging a class of models that addresses the feedbacks between infectious disease dynamics and the behavioral decisions driving host contact. Referred to as “economic epidemiology” or “epidemiological economics,” the approach explores the determinants of decisions about the number and type of contacts made by individuals, using insights and methods from economics. We show how the approach has the potential both to improve predictions of the course of infectious disease, and to support development of novel approaches to infectious disease management.
ContributorsPerrings, Charles (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Author) / Daszak, Peter (Author) / Fenichel, Eli P. (Author) / Finnoff, David (Author) / Horan, Richard D. (Author) / Kilpatrick, A. Marm (Author) / Kinzig, Ann (Author) / Kuminoff, Nicolai (Author) / Levin, Simon (Author) / Morin, Benjamin (Author) / Smith, Katherine F. (Author) / Springborn, Michael (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor) / W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Economics (Contributor) / Julie Ann Wrigley Global Institute of Sustainability (Contributor)
Created2015-12-01
Description
Inhibition by ammonium at concentrations above 1000 mgN/L is known to harm the methanogenesis phase of anaerobic digestion. We anaerobically digested swine waste and achieved steady state COD-removal efficiency of around 52% with no fatty-acid or H[subscript 2] accumulation. As the anaerobic microbial community adapted to the gradual increase of total ammonia-N (NH[subscript 3]-N) from 890 ± 295 to 2040 ± 30 mg/L, the Bacterial and Archaeal communities became less diverse. Phylotypes most closely related to hydrogenotrophic Methanoculleus (36.4%) and Methanobrevibacter (11.6%), along with acetoclastic Methanosaeta (29.3%), became the most abundant Archaeal sequences during acclimation. This was accompanied by a sharp increase in the relative abundances of phylotypes most closely related to acetogens and fatty-acid producers (Clostridium, Coprococcus, and Sphaerochaeta) and syntrophic fatty-acid Bacteria (Syntrophomonas, Clostridium, Clostridiaceae species, and Cloacamonaceae species) that have metabolic capabilities for butyrate and propionate fermentation, as well as for reverse acetogenesis. Our results provide evidence countering a prevailing theory that acetoclastic methanogens are selectively inhibited when the total ammonia-N concentration is greater than ~1000 mgN/L. Instead, acetoclastic and hydrogenotrophic methanogens coexisted in the presence of total ammonia-N of ~2000 mgN/L by establishing syntrophic relationships with fatty-acid fermenters, as well as homoacetogens able to carry out forward and reverse acetogenesis.
ContributorsEsquivel Elizondo, Sofia (Author) / Parameswaran, Prathap (Author) / Delgado, Anca (Author) / Maldonado, Juan (Author) / Rittmann, Bruce (Author) / Krajmalnik-Brown, Rosa (Author) / Biodesign Institute (Contributor) / Swette Center for Environmental Biotechnology (Contributor) / Ira A. Fulton Schools of Engineering (Contributor) / School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment (Contributor)
Created2016-08-11
Description
Background
Seroepidemiological studies before and after the epidemic wave of H1N1-2009 are useful for estimating population attack rates with a potential to validate early estimates of the reproduction number, R, in modeling studies.
Methodology/Principal Findings
Since the final epidemic size, the proportion of individuals in a population who become infected during an epidemic, is not the result of a binomial sampling process because infection events are not independent of each other, we propose the use of an asymptotic distribution of the final size to compute approximate 95% confidence intervals of the observed final size. This allows the comparison of the observed final sizes against predictions based on the modeling study (R = 1.15, 1.40 and 1.90), which also yields simple formulae for determining sample sizes for future seroepidemiological studies. We examine a total of eleven published seroepidemiological studies of H1N1-2009 that took place after observing the peak incidence in a number of countries. Observed seropositive proportions in six studies appear to be smaller than that predicted from R = 1.40; four of the six studies sampled serum less than one month after the reported peak incidence. The comparison of the observed final sizes against R = 1.15 and 1.90 reveals that all eleven studies appear not to be significantly deviating from the prediction with R = 1.15, but final sizes in nine studies indicate overestimation if the value R = 1.90 is used.
Conclusions
Sample sizes of published seroepidemiological studies were too small to assess the validity of model predictions except when R = 1.90 was used. We recommend the use of the proposed approach in determining the sample size of post-epidemic seroepidemiological studies, calculating the 95% confidence interval of observed final size, and conducting relevant hypothesis testing instead of the use of methods that rely on a binomial proportion.
Seroepidemiological studies before and after the epidemic wave of H1N1-2009 are useful for estimating population attack rates with a potential to validate early estimates of the reproduction number, R, in modeling studies.
Methodology/Principal Findings
Since the final epidemic size, the proportion of individuals in a population who become infected during an epidemic, is not the result of a binomial sampling process because infection events are not independent of each other, we propose the use of an asymptotic distribution of the final size to compute approximate 95% confidence intervals of the observed final size. This allows the comparison of the observed final sizes against predictions based on the modeling study (R = 1.15, 1.40 and 1.90), which also yields simple formulae for determining sample sizes for future seroepidemiological studies. We examine a total of eleven published seroepidemiological studies of H1N1-2009 that took place after observing the peak incidence in a number of countries. Observed seropositive proportions in six studies appear to be smaller than that predicted from R = 1.40; four of the six studies sampled serum less than one month after the reported peak incidence. The comparison of the observed final sizes against R = 1.15 and 1.90 reveals that all eleven studies appear not to be significantly deviating from the prediction with R = 1.15, but final sizes in nine studies indicate overestimation if the value R = 1.90 is used.
Conclusions
Sample sizes of published seroepidemiological studies were too small to assess the validity of model predictions except when R = 1.90 was used. We recommend the use of the proposed approach in determining the sample size of post-epidemic seroepidemiological studies, calculating the 95% confidence interval of observed final size, and conducting relevant hypothesis testing instead of the use of methods that rely on a binomial proportion.
ContributorsNishiura, Hiroshi (Author) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor)
Created2011-03-24
Description
We studied the microbial community structure of pilot two-stage membrane biofilm reactors (MBfRs) designed to reduce nitrate (NO[subscript 3]–) and perchlorate (ClO[subscript 4]–) in contaminated groundwater. The groundwater also contained oxygen (O[subscript 2]) and sulfate (SO[2 over 4]–), which became important electron sinks that affected the NO[subscript 3]– and ClO[subscript 4]– removal rates. Using pyrosequencing, we elucidated how important phylotypes of each “primary” microbial group, i.e., denitrifying bacteria (DB), perchlorate-reducing bacteria (PRB), and sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB), responded to changes in electron-acceptor loading. UniFrac, principal coordinate analysis (PCoA), and diversity analyses documented that the microbial community of biofilms sampled when the MBfRs had a high acceptor loading were phylogenetically distant from and less diverse than the microbial community of biofilm samples with lower acceptor loadings. Diminished acceptor loading led to SO[2 over 4]– reduction in the lag MBfR, which allowed Desulfovibrionales (an SRB) and Thiothrichales (sulfur-oxidizers) to thrive through S cycling. As a result of this cooperative relationship, they competed effectively with DB/PRB phylotypes such as Xanthomonadales and Rhodobacterales. Thus, pyrosequencing illustrated that while DB, PRB, and SRB responded predictably to changes in acceptor loading, a decrease in total acceptor loading led to important shifts within the “primary” groups, the onset of other members (e.g., Thiothrichales), and overall greater diversity.
ContributorsOntiveros-Valencia, Aura (Author) / Tang, Youneng (Author) / Zhao, Heping (Author) / Friese, David (Author) / Overstreet, Ryan (Author) / Smith, Jennifer (Author) / Evans, Patrick (Author) / Rittmann, Bruce (Author) / Krajmalnik-Brown, Rosa (Author) / Biodesign Institute (Contributor) / Swette Center for Environmental Biotechnology (Contributor) / Julie Ann Wrigley Global Institute of Sustainability (Contributor) / School of Sustainability (Contributor)
Created2014-07-01
Description
pH and fermentable substrates impose selective pressures on gut microbial communities and their metabolisms. We evaluated the relative contributions of pH, alkalinity, and substrate on microbial community structure, metabolism, and functional interactions using triplicate batch cultures started from fecal slurry and incubated with an initial pH of 6.0, 6.5, or 6.9 and 10 mM glucose, fructose, or cellobiose as the carbon substrate. We analyzed 16S rRNA gene sequences and fermentation products. Microbial diversity was driven by both pH and substrate type. Due to insufficient alkalinity, a drop in pH from 6.0 to ~4.5 clustered pH 6.0 cultures together and distant from pH 6.5 and 6.9 cultures, which experienced only small pH drops. Cellobiose yielded more acidity than alkalinity due to the amount of fermentable carbon, which moved cellobiose pH 6.5 cultures away from other pH 6.5 cultures. The impact of pH on microbial community structure was reflected by fermentative metabolism. Lactate accumulation occurred in pH 6.0 cultures, whereas propionate and acetate accumulations were observed in pH 6.5 and 6.9 cultures and independently from the type of substrate provided. Finally, pH had an impact on the interactions between lactate-producing and -consuming communities. Lactate-producing Streptococcus dominated pH 6.0 cultures, and acetate- and propionate-producing Veillonella, Bacteroides, and Escherichia dominated the cultures started at pH 6.5 and 6.9. Acid inhibition on lactate-consuming species led to lactate accumulation. Our results provide insights into pH-derived changes in fermenting microbiota and metabolisms in the human gut.
ContributorsIlhan, Zehra (Author) / Marcus, Andrew (Author) / Kang, Dae-Wook (Author) / Rittmann, Bruce (Author) / Krajmalnik-Brown, Rosa (Author) / Biodesign Institute (Contributor) / Swette Center for Environmental Biotechnology (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / Fundamental and Applied Microbiomics (Contributor) / Ira A. Fulton Schools of Engineering (Contributor) / School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment (Contributor)
Created2017-05-03
Description
Background
Syngas fermentation, the bioconversion of CO, CO[subscript 2], and H[subscript 2] to biofuels and chemicals, has undergone considerable optimization for industrial applications. Even more, full-scale plants for ethanol production from syngas fermentation by pure cultures are being built worldwide. The composition of syngas depends on the feedstock gasified and the gasification conditions. However, it remains unclear how different syngas mixtures affect the metabolism of carboxidotrophs, including the ethanol/acetate ratios. In addition, the potential application of mixed cultures in syngas fermentation and their advantages over pure cultures have not been deeply explored. In this work, the effects of CO[subscript 2] and H[subscript 2] on the CO metabolism by pure and mixed cultures were studied and compared. For this, a CO-enriched mixed culture and two isolated carboxidotrophs were grown with different combinations of syngas components (CO, CO:H[subscript 2], CO:CO[subscript 2], or CO:CO[subscript 2]:H[subscript 2]).
Results
The CO metabolism of the mixed culture was somehow affected by the addition of CO[subscript 2] and/or H[subscript 2], but the pure cultures were more sensitive to changes in gas composition than the mixed culture. CO[subscript 2] inhibited CO oxidation by the Pleomorphomonas-like isolate and decreased the ethanol/acetate ratio by the Acetobacterium-like isolate. H[subscript 2] did not inhibit ethanol or H[subscript 2] production by the Acetobacterium and Pleomorphomonas isolates, respectively, but decreased their CO consumption rates. As part of the mixed culture, these isolates, together with other microorganisms, consumed H[subscript 2] and CO[subscript 2] (along with CO) for all conditions tested and at similar CO consumption rates (2.6 ± 0.6 mmol CO L[superscript −1] day[superscript −1]), while maintaining overall function (acetate production). Providing a continuous supply of CO by membrane diffusion caused the mixed culture to switch from acetate to ethanol production, presumably due to the increased supply of electron donor. In parallel with this change in metabolic function, the structure of the microbial community became dominated by Geosporobacter phylotypes, instead of Acetobacterium and Pleomorphomonas phylotypes.
Conclusions
These results provide evidence for the potential of mixed-culture syngas fermentation, since the CO-enriched mixed culture showed high functional redundancy, was resilient to changes in syngas composition, and was capable of producing acetate or ethanol as main products of CO metabolism.
Syngas fermentation, the bioconversion of CO, CO[subscript 2], and H[subscript 2] to biofuels and chemicals, has undergone considerable optimization for industrial applications. Even more, full-scale plants for ethanol production from syngas fermentation by pure cultures are being built worldwide. The composition of syngas depends on the feedstock gasified and the gasification conditions. However, it remains unclear how different syngas mixtures affect the metabolism of carboxidotrophs, including the ethanol/acetate ratios. In addition, the potential application of mixed cultures in syngas fermentation and their advantages over pure cultures have not been deeply explored. In this work, the effects of CO[subscript 2] and H[subscript 2] on the CO metabolism by pure and mixed cultures were studied and compared. For this, a CO-enriched mixed culture and two isolated carboxidotrophs were grown with different combinations of syngas components (CO, CO:H[subscript 2], CO:CO[subscript 2], or CO:CO[subscript 2]:H[subscript 2]).
Results
The CO metabolism of the mixed culture was somehow affected by the addition of CO[subscript 2] and/or H[subscript 2], but the pure cultures were more sensitive to changes in gas composition than the mixed culture. CO[subscript 2] inhibited CO oxidation by the Pleomorphomonas-like isolate and decreased the ethanol/acetate ratio by the Acetobacterium-like isolate. H[subscript 2] did not inhibit ethanol or H[subscript 2] production by the Acetobacterium and Pleomorphomonas isolates, respectively, but decreased their CO consumption rates. As part of the mixed culture, these isolates, together with other microorganisms, consumed H[subscript 2] and CO[subscript 2] (along with CO) for all conditions tested and at similar CO consumption rates (2.6 ± 0.6 mmol CO L[superscript −1] day[superscript −1]), while maintaining overall function (acetate production). Providing a continuous supply of CO by membrane diffusion caused the mixed culture to switch from acetate to ethanol production, presumably due to the increased supply of electron donor. In parallel with this change in metabolic function, the structure of the microbial community became dominated by Geosporobacter phylotypes, instead of Acetobacterium and Pleomorphomonas phylotypes.
Conclusions
These results provide evidence for the potential of mixed-culture syngas fermentation, since the CO-enriched mixed culture showed high functional redundancy, was resilient to changes in syngas composition, and was capable of producing acetate or ethanol as main products of CO metabolism.
ContributorsEsquivel Elizondo, Sofia (Author) / Delgado, Anca (Author) / Rittmann, Bruce (Author) / Krajmalnik-Brown, Rosa (Author) / Biodesign Institute (Contributor) / Swette Center for Environmental Biotechnology (Contributor) / Ira A. Fulton School of Engineering (Contributor) / School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment (Contributor)
Created2017-09-16