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Mathematical epidemiology, one of the oldest and richest areas in mathematical biology, has significantly enhanced our understanding of how pathogens emerge, evolve, and spread. Classical epidemiological models, the standard for predicting and managing the spread of infectious disease, assume that contacts between susceptible and infectious individuals depend on their relative frequency in the population. The behavioral factors that underpin contact rates are not generally addressed. There is, however, an emerging a class of models that addresses the feedbacks between infectious disease dynamics and the behavioral decisions driving host contact. Referred to as “economic epidemiology” or “epidemiological economics,” the approach explores the determinants of decisions about the number and type of contacts made by individuals, using insights and methods from economics. We show how the approach has the potential both to improve predictions of the course of infectious disease, and to support development of novel approaches to infectious disease management.
ContributorsPerrings, Charles (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Author) / Daszak, Peter (Author) / Fenichel, Eli P. (Author) / Finnoff, David (Author) / Horan, Richard D. (Author) / Kilpatrick, A. Marm (Author) / Kinzig, Ann (Author) / Kuminoff, Nicolai (Author) / Levin, Simon (Author) / Morin, Benjamin (Author) / Smith, Katherine F. (Author) / Springborn, Michael (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor) / W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Economics (Contributor) / Julie Ann Wrigley Global Institute of Sustainability (Contributor)
Created2015-12-01
Description
Background
Seroepidemiological studies before and after the epidemic wave of H1N1-2009 are useful for estimating population attack rates with a potential to validate early estimates of the reproduction number, R, in modeling studies.
Methodology/Principal Findings
Since the final epidemic size, the proportion of individuals in a population who become infected during an epidemic, is not the result of a binomial sampling process because infection events are not independent of each other, we propose the use of an asymptotic distribution of the final size to compute approximate 95% confidence intervals of the observed final size. This allows the comparison of the observed final sizes against predictions based on the modeling study (R = 1.15, 1.40 and 1.90), which also yields simple formulae for determining sample sizes for future seroepidemiological studies. We examine a total of eleven published seroepidemiological studies of H1N1-2009 that took place after observing the peak incidence in a number of countries. Observed seropositive proportions in six studies appear to be smaller than that predicted from R = 1.40; four of the six studies sampled serum less than one month after the reported peak incidence. The comparison of the observed final sizes against R = 1.15 and 1.90 reveals that all eleven studies appear not to be significantly deviating from the prediction with R = 1.15, but final sizes in nine studies indicate overestimation if the value R = 1.90 is used.
Conclusions
Sample sizes of published seroepidemiological studies were too small to assess the validity of model predictions except when R = 1.90 was used. We recommend the use of the proposed approach in determining the sample size of post-epidemic seroepidemiological studies, calculating the 95% confidence interval of observed final size, and conducting relevant hypothesis testing instead of the use of methods that rely on a binomial proportion.
Seroepidemiological studies before and after the epidemic wave of H1N1-2009 are useful for estimating population attack rates with a potential to validate early estimates of the reproduction number, R, in modeling studies.
Methodology/Principal Findings
Since the final epidemic size, the proportion of individuals in a population who become infected during an epidemic, is not the result of a binomial sampling process because infection events are not independent of each other, we propose the use of an asymptotic distribution of the final size to compute approximate 95% confidence intervals of the observed final size. This allows the comparison of the observed final sizes against predictions based on the modeling study (R = 1.15, 1.40 and 1.90), which also yields simple formulae for determining sample sizes for future seroepidemiological studies. We examine a total of eleven published seroepidemiological studies of H1N1-2009 that took place after observing the peak incidence in a number of countries. Observed seropositive proportions in six studies appear to be smaller than that predicted from R = 1.40; four of the six studies sampled serum less than one month after the reported peak incidence. The comparison of the observed final sizes against R = 1.15 and 1.90 reveals that all eleven studies appear not to be significantly deviating from the prediction with R = 1.15, but final sizes in nine studies indicate overestimation if the value R = 1.90 is used.
Conclusions
Sample sizes of published seroepidemiological studies were too small to assess the validity of model predictions except when R = 1.90 was used. We recommend the use of the proposed approach in determining the sample size of post-epidemic seroepidemiological studies, calculating the 95% confidence interval of observed final size, and conducting relevant hypothesis testing instead of the use of methods that rely on a binomial proportion.
ContributorsNishiura, Hiroshi (Author) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor)
Created2011-03-24
Description
Spaceflight and spaceflight analogue culture enhance the virulence and pathogenesis-related stress resistance of the foodborne pathogen Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium (S. Typhimurium). This is an alarming finding as it suggests that astronauts may have an increased risk of infection during spaceflight. This risk is further exacerbated as multiple studies indicate that spaceflight negatively impacts aspects of the immune system. In order to ensure astronaut safety during long term missions, it is important to study the phenotypic effects of the microgravity environment on a range of medically important microbial pathogens that might be encountered by the crew. This ground-based study uses the NASA-engineered Rotating Wall Vessel (RWV) bioreactor as a spaceflight analogue culture system to grow bacteria under low fluid shear forces relative to those encountered in microgravity, and interestingly, in the intestinal tract during infection. The culture environment in the RWV is commonly referred to as low shear modeled microgravity (LSMMG). In this study, we characterized the stationary phase stress response of the enteric pathogen, Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis (S. Enteritidis), to LSMMG culture. We showed that LSMMG enhanced the resistance of stationary phase cultures of S. Enteritidis to acid and thermal stressors, which differed from the LSSMG stationary phase response of the closely related pathovar, S. Typhimurium. Interestingly, LSMMG increased the ability of both S. Enteritidis and S. Typhimurium to adhere to, invade into, and survive within an in vitro 3-D intestinal co-culture model containing immune cells. Our results indicate that LSMMG regulates pathogenesis-related characteristics of S. Enteritidis in ways that may present an increased health risk to astronauts during spaceflight missions.
ContributorsKoroli, Sara (Author) / Nickerson, Cheryl (Thesis director) / Barrila, Jennifer (Committee member) / Ott, C. Mark (Committee member) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / School of Molecular Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-05
Description
The International Space Station (ISS) utilizes recycled water for consumption, cleaning and air humidity control. The Environmental Control and Life Support Systems (ECLSS) have been rigorously tested at the NASA Johnson Space Center. Despite the advanced engineering of the water recovery system, bacterial biofilms have been recovered from this potable water source. Microbial contamination of potable water poses a potential threat to crew members onboard the ISS. Because astronauts have been found to have compromised immune systems, bacterial strains that would not typically be considered a danger must be carefully studied to better understand the mechanisms enabling their survival, including polymicrobial interactions. The need for a more thorough understanding of the effect of spaceflight environment on polymicrobial interactions and potential impact on crew health and vehicle integrity is heightened since 1) several potential pathogens have been isolated from the ISS potable water system, 2) spaceflight has been shown to induce unexpected alterations in microbial responses, and 3) emergent phenotypes are often observed when multiple bacterial species are co- cultured together, as compared to pure cultures of single species. In order to address these concerns, suitable growth media are required that will not only support the isolation of these microbes but also the ability to distinguish between them when grown as mixed cultures. In this study, selective and/or differential media were developed for bacterial isolates collected from the ISS potable water supply. In addition to facilitating discrimination between bacteria, the ideal media for each strain was intended to have a 100% recovery rate compared to traditional R2A media. Antibiotic and reagent susceptibility and resistance tests were conducted for the purpose of developing each individual medium. To study a wide range of targets, 12 antibiotics were selected from seven major classes, including penicillin, cephalosporins, fluoroquinolones, aminoglycosides, glycopeptides/lipoglycopeptides, macrolides/lincosamides/streptogramins, tetracyclines, in addition to seven unclassified antibiotics and three reagents. Once developed, medium efficacy was determined by means of growth curve experiments. The development of these media is a critical step for further research into the mechanisms utilized by these strains to survive the harsh conditions of the ISS water system. Furthermore, with an understanding of the complex nature of these polymicrobial communities, specific contamination targeting and control can be conducted to reduce the risk to crew members. Understanding these microbial species and their susceptibilities has potential application for future NASA human explorations, including those to Mars.
ContributorsKing, Olivia Grace (Author) / Nickerson, Cheryl (Thesis director) / Barrila, Jennifer (Committee member) / Ott, Mark (Committee member) / School of Sustainability (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-12
Description
Blood donations today undergo extensive screening for transfusion transmitted infections (TTI) since the discovery of the first infectious agent in the early 1900s. Nucleic Acid Testing (NAT) is a serological test used widely in disease detection. NAT is known to rapidly and effectively detect pathogenic genomic material in blood by reducing the "window period" of infection. However, NAT produces false negative results for disease positive samples posing a risk of disease transmission. Therefore, NAT is used in conjunction with the Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) to mitigate these risks. However, the ELISA assay also poses the same risk as NAT. This study proposes immunosignaturing as an alternative serological test that may combat this risk and investigates whether it would be more effective than other standardized serological tests in disease detection. Immunosignaturing detects antibodies by utilizing a microarray of randomized peptide sequences. Immunosignaturing provides information about an individual's immune health from the pattern of reactivity of antibody-peptide binding. Unlike ELISA and NAT, immunosignaturing can be programmed to detect any disease and detect multiple diseases simultaneously. Using ELISA, NAT, and immunosignaturing, immune profiles of asymptomatic patients were constructed for 10 different classes of blood borne diseases. A pattern of infection was identified for each disease and the sensitivity and specificity of these assays were assessed relative to each other. Results indicate that immunosignaturing can be a viable diagnostic tool in blood testing. Immunosignatures demonstrated increased sensitivity and specificity compared to ELISA and NAT in discerning disease positive and negative samples within and across different classes of disease.
ContributorsSharma, Megumi (Author) / McFadden, Grant (Thesis director) / Nickerson, Cheryl (Committee member) / Green, Alex (Committee member) / School of Molecular Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
Mycobacterial infections, as represented by leprosy and tuberculosis, have persisted as human pathogens for millennia. Their environmental counterparts, nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM), are commodious infectious agents endowed with extensive innate and acquired antimicrobial resistance. The current drug development process selects for antibiotics with high specificity for definitive targets within bacterial metabolic and replication pathways. Because these compounds demonstrate limited efficacy against mycobacteria, novel antimycobacterial agents with unconventional mechanisms of action were identified. Two highly resistant NTMs, Mycobacterium abscessus (Mabs) a rapid-growing respiratory, skin, and soft tissue pathogen, and Mycobacterium ulcerans (MU), the causative agent of Buruli ulcer, were selected as targets. Compounds that indicated antimicrobial activity against other highly resistant pathogens were selected for initial screening. Antimicrobial peptides (AMPs) have demonstrated activity against a variety of bacterial pathogens, including mycobacterial species. Designed antimicrobial peptides (dAMPs), rationally-designed and synthetic contingents, combine iterative features of natural AMPs to achieve superior antimicrobial activity in resistant pathogens. Initial screening identified two dAMPs, RP554 and RP557, with bactericidal activity against Mabs. Clay-associated ions have previously demonstrated bactericidal activity against MU. Synthetic and customizable aluminosilicates have also demonstrated adsorption of bacterial cells and toxins. On this basis, two aluminosilicate materials, geopolymers (GP) and ion-exchange nanozeolites (IE-nZeos), were screened for antimicrobial activity against MU and its fast-growing relative, Mycobacterium marinum (Mmar). GPs demonstrated adsorption of MU cells and mycolactone, a secreted, lipophilic toxin, whereas Cu-nZeos and Ag-nZeos demonstrated antibacterial activity against MU and Mmar. Cumulatively, these results indicate that an integrative drug selection process may yield a new generation of antimycobacterial agents.
ContributorsDermody, Roslyn June (Author) / Haydel, Shelley E (Thesis advisor) / Bean, Heather (Committee member) / Nickerson, Cheryl (Committee member) / Stephanopoulos, Nicholas (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022
Description
Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), the etiological agent of the tuberculosis disease, is estimated to infect one-fourth of the human population and is responsible for 1.5 million deaths annually. The increased emergence of bacterial resistance to clinical interventions highlights the lack in development of novel antimicrobial therapeutics. Prototypical bacterial two-component systems (TCS) allow for sensing of extracellular stimuli and relay thereof to create a transcriptional response. The prrAB TCS is essential for viability in Mtb, presenting itself as an attractive novel drug target. In Mtb, PrrAB is involved in the adaptation to the intra-macrophage environment and recent work implicates PrrAB in the dosR-dependent hypoxia adaptation. This work defines a direct molecular and regulatory connection between Mtb PrrAB and the dosR-dependent hypoxia response. Using electrophoretic mobility shift assays combined with surface plasmon resonance, the Mtb dosR gene is established as a specific target of PrrA, corroborated by fluorescence reporter assays demonstrating a regulatory relationship. Considering the scarce understanding of prrAB essentiality in nontuberculous mycobacteria and the presence of multiple prrAB orthologs in Mycobacterium smegmatis and Mycobacterium abscessus, CRISPR interference was utilized to evaluate the essentiality of PrrAB beyond Mtb. prrAB was found to be inessential for viability in M. smegmatis yet required for in vitro growth. Conversely, M. abscessus prrAB repression led to enhanced in vitro growth. Diarylthiazole-48 (DAT-48) displayed decreased selectivity against M. abscessus but demonstrated enhanced intrinsic activity upon prrAB repression in M. abscessus. Lastly, to aid in the rapid determination of mycobacterial drug susceptibility and the detection of mycobacterial heteroresistance, the large volume scattering imaging (LVSim) platform was adapted for mycobacteria. Using LVSim, Mtb drug susceptibility was detected phenotypically within 6 hours, and clinically relevant mycobacterial heteroresistance was detected phenotypically within 10 generations. The data generated in these studies provide insight into the essential role of PrrAB in Mtb and its involvement in the dosR-dependent hypoxia adaptation, advance the understanding of mycobacterial PrrAB essentiality and PrrAB-associated mycobacterial growth dependency. These studies further establish molecular and mechanistic connection between PrrAB and DAT-48 in Mtb and M. abscessus and develop a rapid phenotypic drug susceptibility testing platform for mycobacteria.
ContributorsHaller, Yannik Alex (Author) / Haydel, Shelley E (Thesis advisor) / Bean, Heather (Committee member) / Nickerson, Cheryl (Committee member) / Plaisier, Christopher (Committee member) / Acharya, Abhinav (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023
Description
One of the identified health risk areas for human spaceflight is infectious disease, particularly involving environmental microorganisms already found on the International Space Station (ISS). In particular, bacteria belonging to the Burkholderia cepacia complex (Bcc) which can cause human disease in those who are immunocompromised, have been identified in the ISS water supply. This present study characterized the effect of spaceflight analog culture conditions on Bcc to certain physiological stresses (acid and thermal as well as intracellular survival in U927 human macrophage cells). The NASA-designed Rotating Wall Vessel (RWV) bioreactor was used as the spaceflight analogue culture system in these studies to grow Bcc bacterial cells under Low Shear Modeled Microgravity (LSMMG) conditions. Results show that LSMMG culture increased the resistance of Bcc to both acid and thermal stressors, but did not alter phagocytic uptake in 2-D monolayers of human monocytes.
ContributorsVu, Christian-Alexander (Author) / Nickerson, Cheryl (Thesis director) / Barrila, Jennifer (Committee member) / Ott, Mark (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Harrington Bioengineering Program (Contributor)
Created2023-05
Description
Yersinia enterocolitica is a major foodborne pathogen found worldwide that causes approximately 87,000 human cases and approximately 1,100 hospitalizations per year in the United States. Y. enterocolitica is a very unique pathogen with the domesticated pig acting as the main animal reservoir for pathogenic bio/serotypes, and as the primary source of human infection. Similar to other gastrointestinal infections, Yersinia enterocolitica is known to trigger autoimmune responses in humans. The most frequent complication associated with Y. enterocolitica is reactive arthritis - an aseptic, asymmetrical inflammation in the peripheral and axial joints, most frequently occurring as an autoimmune response in patients with the HLA-B27 histocompatability antigen. As a foodborne illness it may prove to be a reasonable explanation for some of the cases of arthritis observed in past populations that are considered to be of unknown etiology. The goal of this dissertation project was to study the relationship between the foodborne illness -Y. enterocolitica, and the incidence of arthritis in individuals with and without contact with the domesticated pig.
ContributorsBrown, Starletta (Author) / Hurtado, Ana M (Thesis advisor) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Committee member) / Hill, Kim (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
Despite the safe and effective use of attenuated vaccines for over fifty years, measles virus (MV) remains an insidious threat to global health. Problematically, infants less than one year of age, who are the most prone to severe infection and death by measles, cannot be immunized using current MV vaccines. For this dissertation, I generated and performed preclinical evaluation of two novel MV vaccine candidates. Based on data from clinical trials that showed increasing the dosage of current MV vaccines improved antibody responses in six-month-old recipients, I hypothesized that increasing the relevant antigenic stimulus of a standard titer dose would allow safe and effective immunization at a younger age. I generated two modified MVs with increased expression of the hemagglutinin (H) protein, the most important viral antigen for inducing protective neutralizing immunity, in the background of a current vaccine-equivalent. One virus, MVvac2-H2, expressed higher levels of full-length H, resulting in a three-fold increase in H incorporation into virions, while the second, MVvac2-Hsol, expressed and secreted truncated, soluble H protein to its extracellular environment. The alteration to the virion envelope of MVvac2-H2 conferred upon that virus a measurable resistance to in vitro neutralization. In initial screening in adult mouse models of vaccination, both modified MVs proved more immunogenic than their parental strain in outbred mice, while MVvac2-H2 additionally proved more immunogenic in the gold standard MV-susceptible mouse model. Remarkably, MVvac2-H2 better induced protective immunity in the presence of low levels of artificially introduced passive immunity that mimic the passive maternal immunity that currently limits vaccination of young infants, and that strongly inhibited responses to the current vaccine-equivalent. Finally, I developed a more physiological infant-like mouse model for MV vaccine testing, in which MV-susceptible dams vaccinated with the current vaccine-equivalent transfer passive immunity to their pups. This model will allow additional preclinical evaluation of the performance of MVvac2-H2 in pups of immune dams. Altogether, in this dissertation I identify a promising candidate, MVvac2-H2, for a next generation measles vaccine.
ContributorsJulik, Emily (Author) / Reyes del Valle, Jorge (Thesis advisor) / Chang, Yung (Committee member) / Blattman, Joseph (Committee member) / Hogue, Brenda (Committee member) / Nickerson, Cheryl (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016