Several past studies have found that media reports of suicides and homicides appear to subsequently increase the incidence of similar events in the community, apparently due to the coverage planting the seeds of ideation in at-risk individuals to commit similar acts.
Methods
Here we explore whether or not contagion is evident in more high-profile incidents, such as school shootings and mass killings (incidents with four or more people killed). We fit a contagion model to recent data sets related to such incidents in the US, with terms that take into account the fact that a school shooting or mass murder may temporarily increase the probability of a similar event in the immediate future, by assuming an exponential decay in contagiousness after an event.
Conclusions
We find significant evidence that mass killings involving firearms are incented by similar events in the immediate past. On average, this temporary increase in probability lasts 13 days, and each incident incites at least 0.30 new incidents (p = 0.0015). We also find significant evidence of contagion in school shootings, for which an incident is contagious for an average of 13 days, and incites an average of at least 0.22 new incidents (p = 0.0001). All p-values are assessed based on a likelihood ratio test comparing the likelihood of a contagion model to that of a null model with no contagion. On average, mass killings involving firearms occur approximately every two weeks in the US, while school shootings occur on average monthly. We find that state prevalence of firearm ownership is significantly associated with the state incidence of mass killings with firearms, school shootings, and mass shootings.
The transmission dynamics of Tuberculosis (TB) involve complex epidemiological and socio-economical interactions between individuals living in highly distinct regional conditions. The level of exogenous reinfection and first time infection rates within high-incidence settings may influence the impact of control programs on TB prevalence. The impact that effective population size and the distribution of individuals’ residence times in different patches have on TB transmission and control are studied using selected scenarios where risk is defined by the estimated or perceive first time infection and/or exogenous re-infection rates.
Methods
This study aims at enhancing the understanding of TB dynamics, within simplified, two patch, risk-defined environments, in the presence of short term mobility and variations in reinfection and infection rates via a mathematical model. The modeling framework captures the role of individuals’ ‘daily’ dynamics within and between places of residency, work or business via the average proportion of time spent in residence and as visitors to TB-risk environments (patches). As a result, the effective population size of Patch i (home of i-residents) at time t must account for visitors and residents of Patch i, at time t.
Results
The study identifies critical social behaviors mechanisms that can facilitate or eliminate TB infection in vulnerable populations. The results suggest that short-term mobility between heterogeneous patches contributes to significant overall increases in TB prevalence when risk is considered only in terms of direct new infection transmission, compared to the effect of exogenous reinfection. Although, the role of exogenous reinfection increases the risk that come from large movement of individuals, due to catastrophes or conflict, to TB-free areas.
Conclusions
The study highlights that allowing infected individuals to move from high to low TB prevalence areas (for example via the sharing of treatment and isolation facilities) may lead to a reduction in the total TB prevalence in the overall population. The higher the population size heterogeneity between distinct risk patches, the larger the benefit (low overall prevalence) under the same “traveling” patterns. Policies need to account for population specific factors (such as risks that are inherent with high levels of migration, local and regional mobility patterns, and first time infection rates) in order to be long lasting, effective and results in low number of drug resistant cases.
Animals use diverse signal types (e.g. visual, auditory) to honestly advertise their genotypic and/or phenotypic quality to prospective mates or rivals. Behavioral displays and other dynamically updateable signals (e.g. songs, vibrations) can reliably reveal an individual’s quality in real-time, but it is unclear whether more fixed traits like feather coloration, which is often developed months before breeding, still reveal an individual’s quality at the time of signal use. To address this gap, we investigated if various indices of health and condition – including body condition (residual body mass), poxvirus infection, degree of habitat urbanization, and circulating levels of ketones, glucose, vitamins, and carotenoids – were related to the expression of male plumage coloration at the start of the spring breeding season in wild male house finches (Haemorhous mexicanus), a species in which many studies have demonstrated a link between plumage redness and the health and condition of individuals at the time the feathers are grown in late summer and autumn. We found that, at the time of pair formation, plumage hue was correlated with body condition, such that redder males were in better condition (i.e. higher residual mass). Also, as in previous studies, we found that rural males had redder plumage; however, urban males had more saturated plumage. In sum, these results reveal that feather coloration developed long before breeding still can be indicative to choosy mates of a male’s current condition and suggest that females who prefer to mate with redder males may also gain proximate material benefits (e.g. better incubation provisioning) by mating with these individuals in good current condition.
Bioindicators of wildlife health are useful tools for studying the viability of various organisms and populations, and can include a range of phenotypic variables, such as behavior, body size, and physiological parameters, such as circulating hormones and nutrients. Few studies have investigated the utility of total plasma protein as a predictor of environmental or nutritional variation among birds, as well as variation across different seasons and life-history stages. Here I examined relationships between plasma protein and season, urbanization, sex, body condition, molt status, and disease state in house finches (Haemorhous mexicanus). I sampled blood from house finches across three seasons (winter, summer and fall 2021) and measured plasma protein levels using a Bradford assay. I also collected data including condition, sex, and poxvirus infection state at capture, as well as fecal samples to assess gut parasitism (coccidiosis). During the fall season I also estimated molt status, as number of actively growing feathers. I found circulating plasma protein concentration to be lower in the fall during molt than during winter or summer. I also found a significant relationship between circulating protein levels and capture site, as well as novel links to molt state and pox presence, with urban birds, those infected with pox, and those in more intense molt having higher protein levels. My results support the hypotheses that plasma protein concentration can be indicative of a bird’s body molt (which demands considerable protein for feather synthesis) and degree of habitat urbanization, although future work is needed to determine why protein levels were higher in virus-infected birds.