Surveys have shown that several hundred billion weather forecasts are obtained by the United States public each year, and that weather news is one of the most consumed topics in the media. This indicates that the forecast provides information that is significant to the public, and that the public utilizes details associated with it to inform aspects of their life. Phoenix, Arizona is a dry, desert region that experiences a monsoon season and extreme heat. How then, does the weather forecast influence the way Phoenix residents make decisions? This paper aims to draw connections between the weather forecast, decision making, and people who live in a desert environment. To do this, a ten-minute survey was deployed through Amazon Mechanical Turk (MTurk) in which 379 respondents were targeted. The survey asks 45 multiple choice and ranking questions categorized into four sections: obtainment of the forecast, forecast variables of interest, informed decision making based on unique weather variables, and demographics. This research illuminates how residents in the Phoenix metropolitan area use the local weather forecast for decision-making on daily activities, and the main meteorological factors that drive those decisions.
Methods: Using archival death certificates from 1954 to 1961, this study quantified the age-specific seasonal patterns, excess-mortality rates, and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona. By applying cyclical Serfling linear regression models to weekly mortality rates, the excess-mortality rates due to respiratory and all-causes were estimated for each age group during the pandemic period. The reproduction number was quantified from weekly data using a simple growth rate method and generation intervals of 3 and 4 days. Local newspaper articles from The Arizona Republic were analyzed from 1957-1958.
Results: Excess-mortality rates varied between waves, age groups, and causes of death, but overall remained low. From October 1959-June 1960, the most severe wave of the pandemic, the absolute excess-mortality rate based on respiratory deaths per 10,000 population was 17.85 in the elderly (≥65 years). All other age groups had extremely low excess-mortality and the typical U-shaped age-pattern was absent. However, relative risk was greatest (3.61) among children and young adolescents (5-14 years) from October 1957-March 1958, based on incidence rates of respiratory deaths. Transmissibility was greatest during the same 1957-1958 period, when the mean reproduction number was 1.08-1.11, assuming 3 or 4 day generation intervals and exponential or fixed distributions.
Conclusions: Maricopa County largely avoided pandemic influenza from 1957-1961. Understanding this historical pandemic and the absence of high excess-mortality rates and transmissibility in Maricopa County may help public health officials prepare for and mitigate future outbreaks of influenza.
Level of education had little impact on whether or not women received the nutrition packet. Of those women with no education, 63.1% received the packet. Of those with any education, 63.9% got the packet.
In contrast, distance was strongly correlated with whether or not women received the packet. For example, of the women living within 200 meters of the health center, 93.2% received a nutrition packet. Of the women living between 250 meters and one kilometer of the health center, 68.4% received a nutrition packet. Of the women living over one kilometer from the health center, only 25% received a nutrition packet. The relationship between uptake of packets and women’s perception of distance to the health center was also explored. Out of 50 women who did not receive the packet, all of the women who said there was no health center in their village did live more than one kilometer from a health center. Of the women who lived between 250 meters and one kilometer from the health center, 40% felt it was too far. Of the women who lived more than a kilometer from the health center, 66.7% felt it was too far and 29.6% said there was no health center in their village. Again, it does not appear that ‘too far’ is just a default reason for women, but that actual distance, more so than education, is a major contributing factor in their ability to take the nutrition packet. These findings suggest that improving access to supplemental nutrition packets at the village level may increase uptake by the women.