Matching Items (150)
Description
Surveys have shown that several hundred billion weather forecasts are obtained by the United States public each year, and that weather news is one of the most consumed topics in the media. This indicates that the forecast provides information that is significant to the public, and that the public utilizes details associated with it to inform aspects of their life. Phoenix, Arizona is a dry, desert region that experiences a monsoon season and extreme heat. How then, does the weather forecast influence the way Phoenix residents make decisions? This paper aims to draw connections between the weather forecast, decision making, and people who live in a desert environment. To do this, a ten-minute survey was deployed through Amazon Mechanical Turk (MTurk) in which 379 respondents were targeted. The survey asks 45 multiple choice and ranking questions categorized into four sections: obtainment of the forecast, forecast variables of interest, informed decision making based on unique weather variables, and demographics. This research illuminates how residents in the Phoenix metropolitan area use the local weather forecast for decision-making on daily activities, and the main meteorological factors that drive those decisions.
ContributorsMarturano, Julia (Author) / Middel, Ariane (Thesis director) / Schneider, Florian (Committee member) / School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning (Contributor, Contributor, Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2021-05
Description
Haiti has witnessed high deforestation rates in recent decades, caused largely by the fuel needs of a growing population. The resulting soil loss is estimated to have contributed towards a decline in agricultural productivity of 0.5% -1.2% per year since 1997. Recent studies show the potential of biochar use through pyrolysis technology to increase crop yields and improve soil health. However, the appropriateness of this technology in the context of Haiti remains unexplored. The three objectives of this research were to identify agricultural- and fuel-use-related needs and gaps in rural Haitian communities; determine the appropriateness of biochar pyrolyzer technology, used to convert agricultural biomass into a carbon-rich charcoal; and develop an action-oriented plan for use by development organizations, communities, and governmental institutions to increase the likelihood of adoption. Data were collected using participatory rural appraisal techniques involving 30 individual interviews and three focus-group discussions in the villages of Cinquantin and La Boule in the La Coupe region of central Haiti. Topics discussed include agricultural practices and assets, fuel use and needs, technology use and adoption, and social management practices. The Sustainable Livelihoods framework was used to examine the assets of households and the livelihood strategies being employed. Individual and focus group interviews were analyzed to identify specific needs and gaps. E.M. Rogers' Diffusion of Innovations theory was used to develop potential strategies for the introduction of pyrolysis technology. Preliminary results indicate biochar pyrolysis has potential to address agricultural and fuel needs in rural Haiti. Probable early adopters of biochar technology include households that have adopted new agricultural techniques in the past, and those with livestock. Education about biochar, and a variety of pyrolysis technology options from which villagers may select, are important factors in successful adoption of biochar use. A grain mill as an example in one of the study villages provides a model of ownership and use of pyrolysis technology that may increase its likelihood of successful adoption. Additionally, women represent a group that may be well suited to control a new local biochar enterprise, potentially benefiting the community.
ContributorsDelaney, Michael Ryan (Author) / Aggarwal, Rimjhim (Thesis advisor) / Chhetri, Nalini (Committee member) / Henderson, Mark (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
Rabies disease remains enzootic among raccoons, skunks, foxes and bats in the United States. It is of primary concern for public-health agencies to control spatial spread of rabies in wildlife and its potential spillover infection of domestic animals and humans. Rabies is invariably fatal in wildlife if untreated, with a non-negligible incubation period. Understanding how this latency affects spatial spread of rabies in wildlife is the concern of chapter 2 and 3. Chapter 1 deals with the background of mathematical models for rabies and lists main objectives. In chapter 2, a reaction-diffusion susceptible-exposed-infected (SEI) model and a delayed diffusive susceptible-infected (SI) model are constructed to describe the same epidemic process -- rabies spread in foxes. For the delayed diffusive model a non-local infection term with delay is resulted from modeling the dispersal during incubation stage. Comparison is made regarding minimum traveling wave speeds of the two models, which are verified using numerical experiments. In chapter 3, starting with two Kermack and McKendrick's models where infectivity, death rate and diffusion rate of infected individuals can depend on the age of infection, the asymptotic speed of spread $c^\ast$ for the cumulated force of infection can be analyzed. For the special case of fixed incubation period, the asymptotic speed of spread is governed by the same integral equation for both models. Although explicit solutions for $c^\ast$ are difficult to obtain, assuming that diffusion coefficient of incubating animals is small, $c^\ast$ can be estimated in terms of model parameter values. Chapter 4 considers the implementation of realistic landscape in simulation of rabies spread in skunks and bats in northeast Texas. The Finite Element Method (FEM) is adopted because the irregular shapes of realistic landscape naturally lead to unstructured grids in the spatial domain. This implementation leads to a more accurate description of skunk rabies cases distributions.
ContributorsLiu, Hao (Author) / Kuang, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Jackiewicz, Zdzislaw (Committee member) / Lanchier, Nicolas (Committee member) / Smith, Hal (Committee member) / Thieme, Horst (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Descriptionnone
ContributorsZamil, Ruaa (Author) / Parmentier, Mary J (Thesis advisor) / Chhetri, Nalini (Committee member) / Grossman, Gary (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
For over a century, researchers have been investigating collective cognition, in which a group of individuals together process information and act as a single cognitive unit. However, I still know little about circumstances under which groups achieve better (or worse) decisions than individuals. My dissertation research directly addressed this longstanding question, using the house-hunting ant Temnothorax rugatulus as a model system. Here I applied concepts and methods developed in psychology not only to individuals but also to colonies in order to investigate differences of their cognitive abilities. This approach is inspired by the superorganism concept, which sees a tightly integrated insect society as the analog of a single organism. I combined experimental manipulations and models to elucidate the emergent processes of collective cognition. My studies show that groups can achieve superior cognition by sharing the burden of option assessment among members and by integrating information from members using positive feedback. However, the same positive feedback can lock the group into a suboptimal choice in certain circumstances. Although ants are obligately social, my results show that they can be isolated and individually tested on cognitive tasks. In the future, this novel approach will help the field of animal behavior move towards better understanding of collective cognition.
ContributorsSasaki, Takao (Author) / Pratt, Stephen C (Thesis advisor) / Amazeen, Polemnia (Committee member) / Liebig, Jürgen (Committee member) / Janssen, Marco (Committee member) / Fewell, Jennifer (Committee member) / Hölldobler, Bert (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Bacteriophage (phage) are viruses that infect bacteria. Typical laboratory experiments show that in a chemostat containing phage and susceptible bacteria species, a mutant bacteria species will evolve. This mutant species is usually resistant to the phage infection and less competitive compared to the susceptible bacteria species. In some experiments, both susceptible and resistant bacteria species, as well as phage, can coexist at an equilibrium for hundreds of hours. The current research is inspired by these observations, and the goal is to establish a mathematical model and explore sufficient and necessary conditions for the coexistence. In this dissertation a model with infinite distributed delay terms based on some existing work is established. A rigorous analysis of the well-posedness of this model is provided, and it is proved that the susceptible bacteria persist. To study the persistence of phage species, a "Phage Reproduction Number" (PRN) is defined. The mathematical analysis shows phage persist if PRN > 1 and vanish if PRN < 1. A sufficient condition and a necessary condition for persistence of resistant bacteria are given. The persistence of the phage is essential for the persistence of resistant bacteria. Also, the resistant bacteria persist if its fitness is the same as the susceptible bacteria and if PRN > 1. A special case of the general model leads to a system of ordinary differential equations, for which numerical simulation results are presented.
ContributorsHan, Zhun (Author) / Smith, Hal (Thesis advisor) / Armbruster, Dieter (Committee member) / Kawski, Matthias (Committee member) / Kuang, Yang (Committee member) / Thieme, Horst (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
In vertebrate outer retina, changes in the membrane potential of horizontal cells affect the calcium influx and glutamate release of cone photoreceptors via a negative feedback. This feedback has a number of important physiological consequences. One is called background-induced flicker enhancement (BIFE) in which the onset of dim background enhances the center flicker response of horizontal cells. The underlying mechanism for the feedback is still unclear but competing hypotheses have been proposed. One is the GABA hypothesis, which states that the feedback is mediated by gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA), an inhibitory neurotransmitter released from horizontal cells. Another is the ephaptic hypothesis, which contends that the feedback is non-GABAergic and is achieved through the modulation of electrical potential in the intersynaptic cleft between cones and horizontal cells. In this study, a continuum spine model of the cone-horizontal cell synaptic circuitry is formulated. This model, a partial differential equation system, incorporates both the GABA and ephaptic feedback mechanisms. Simulation results, in comparison with experiments, indicate that the ephaptic mechanism is necessary in order for the model to capture the major spatial and temporal dynamics of the BIFE effect. In addition, simulations indicate that the GABA mechanism may play some minor modulation role.
ContributorsChang, Shaojie (Author) / Baer, Steven M. (Thesis advisor) / Gardner, Carl L (Thesis advisor) / Crook, Sharon M (Committee member) / Kuang, Yang (Committee member) / Ringhofer, Christian (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
The spread of invasive species may be greatly affected by human responses to prior species spread, but models and estimation methods seldom explicitly consider human responses. I investigate the effects of management responses on estimates of invasive species spread rates. To do this, I create an agent-based simulation model of an insect invasion across a county-level citrus landscape. My model provides an approximation of a complex spatial environment while allowing the "truth" to be known. The modeled environment consists of citrus orchards with insect pests dispersing among them. Insects move across the simulation environment infesting orchards, while orchard managers respond by administering insecticide according to analyst-selected behavior profiles and management responses may depend on prior invasion states. Dispersal data is generated in each simulation and used to calculate spread rate via a set of estimators selected for their predominance in the empirical literature. Spread rate is a mechanistic, emergent phenomenon measured at the population level caused by a suite of latent biological, environmental, and anthropogenic. I test the effectiveness of orchard behavior profiles on invasion suppression and evaluate the robustness of the estimators given orchard responses. I find that allowing growers to use future expectations of spread in management decisions leads to reduced spread rates. Acting in a preventative manner by applying insecticide before insects are actually present, orchards are able to lower spread rates more than by reactive behavior alone. Spread rates are highly sensitive to spatial configuration. Spatial configuration is hardly a random process, consisting of many latent factors often not accounted for in spread rate estimation. Not considering these factors may lead to an omitted variables bias and skew estimation results. The ability of spread rate estimators to predict future spread varies considerably between estimators, and with spatial configuration, invader biological parameters, and orchard behavior profile. The model suggests that understanding the latent factors inherent to dispersal is important for selecting phenomenological models of spread and interpreting estimation results. This indicates a need for caution when evaluating spread. Although standard practice, current empirical estimators may both over- and underestimate spread rate in the simulation.
ContributorsShanafelt, David William (Author) / Fenichel, Eli P (Thesis advisor) / Richards, Timothy (Committee member) / Janssen, Marco (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
A niche group of non-traditional sports have grown in popularity over the course of most of the last century but especially in the last few decades. Adventure sports provide alternative forms of physical activity typically involving elements of nature, speed, adrenaline, and physical risk. These sports often take place in remote locations, require specialized equipment, and receive limited exposure to those that are not participants. There are many factors that contribute to limited participation within adventure sports but their popularity has continued to grow. Participants frequently devote much of their time, effort, and money showing a true passion for their sport. A case study on water skiers was performed to learn more about adventure sports and their participants. A detailed description of competitive water skiing is included because the competition format is not widely known. It was found that there are a number of reasons why people competitively water ski. The main ones are the unique sensations it offers, the water ski community, and the environment in which it takes place. It is a tough sport to become involved because of the costs, time commitments, access to lakes, and lack of knowledgeable skiers willing to mentor beginners. Although for different reasons, all respondents seemed to truly love the sport. People participate in adventure sports because of the unique aspects and opportunities involved with sports of this nature. The second portion is a coaching guide on all three events, driving, and judging including video examples of all but very high difficulty tricks. These tips and advice have been derived from fifteen years of experience with competitive water skiing. There is no single way to water ski but this is what one skier has found to help at each stage of improvement. It could not have been accomplished without the unimaginable amount of support received from family, coaches, and friends. It is always better to be watched by a coach but that is not always possible. This guide will give skiers a starting point for what to think about to help them figure out how to continue to improve in all three events. With the necessary time, resources, ambition, and circumstances; a small group of people who know nothing about water skiing could learn to become high performance competitors. It will be left with Sun Devil Water Ski Club to help future skiers who do not always have another skier to help teach them.
ContributorsMechler, Mason Charles (Author) / Chhetri, Nalini (Thesis director) / Yesenski, Tara (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Sustainability (Contributor) / Chemical Engineering Program (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
An investigation is undertaken of a prototype building-integrated solar photovoltaic-powered thermal storage system and air conditioning unit. The study verifies previous thermodynamic and economic conclusions and provides a more thorough analysis. A parameterized model was created for optimization of the system under various conditions. The model was used to evaluate energy and cost savings to determine viability of the system in several circumstances, such as a residence in Phoenix with typical cooling demand. The proposed design involves a modified chest freezer as a thermal storage tank with coils acting as the evaporator for the refrigeration cycle. Surrounding the coils, the tank contains small containers of water for high-density energy storage submerged in a low freezing-point solution of propylene glycol. The cooling power of excess photovoltaic and off-peak grid power that is generated by the air conditioning compressor is stored in the thermal storage tank by freezing the pure water. It is extracted by pumping the glycol across the ice containers and into an air handler to cool the building. Featured results of the modeling include the determination of an optimized system for a super-peak rate plan, grid-connected Phoenix house that has a 4-ton cooling load and requires a corresponding new air conditioner at 4.5 kW of power draw. Optimized for the highest payback over a ten year period, the system should consist of a thermal storage tank containing 454 liters (120 gallons) of water, a 3-ton rated air conditioning unit, requiring 2.7 kW, which is smaller than conventionally needed, and no solar photovoltaic array. The monthly summer savings would be $45.The upfront cost would be $5489, compared to a conventional system upfront cost of $5400, for a payback period of 0.33 years. Over ten years, this system will provide $2600 of savings. To optimize the system for the highest savings over a twenty year period, a thermal storage tank containing 272 liters (72 gallons) of water, a 40-m2 photovoltaic array with 15% efficiency, and a 3.5-ton, 3.1-kW rated air conditioning unit should be installed for an upfront cost of $19,900. This would provide monthly summer savings of $225 and 1062 kWh grid electricity, with a payback period of only 11 years and a total cost savings of $12,300 over twenty years. In comparison, a system with the same size photovoltaic array but without storage would result in a payback period of 16 years. Results are also determined for other cooling requirements and installation sizes, such that the viability of this type of system in different conditions can be discussed. The use of this model for determining the optimized system configuration given different constraints is also described.
ContributorsMagerman, Beth Francine (Author) / Phelan, Patrick (Thesis director) / Goodnick, Stephen (Committee member) / Chhetri, Nalini (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Sustainability (Contributor) / Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Program (Contributor)
Created2013-05