Matching Items (50)
Description
Current policies subsidizing or accelerating deployment of photovoltaics (PV) are typically motivated by claims of environmental benefit, such as the reduction of CO2 emissions generated by the fossil-fuel fired power plants that PV is intended to displace. Existing practice is to assess these environmental benefits on a net life-cycle basis, where CO2 benefits occurring during use of the PV panels is found to exceed emissions generated during the PV manufacturing phase including materials extraction and manufacture of the PV panels prior to installation. However, this approach neglects to recognize that the environmental costs of CO2 release during manufacture are incurred early, while environmental benefits accrue later. Thus, where specific policy targets suggest meeting CO2 reduction targets established by a certain date, rapid PV deployment may have counter-intuitive, albeit temporary, undesired consequences. Thus, on a cumulative radiative forcing (CRF) basis, the environmental improvements attributable to PV might be realized much later than is currently understood. This phenomenon is particularly acute when PV manufacture occurs in areas using CO2 intensive energy sources (e.g., coal), but deployment occurs in areas with less CO2 intensive electricity sources (e.g., hydro). This thesis builds a dynamic Cumulative Radiative Forcing (CRF) model to examine the inter-temporal warming impacts of PV deployments in three locations: California, Wyoming and Arizona. The model includes the following factors that impact CRF: PV deployment rate, choice of PV technology, pace of PV technology improvements, and CO2 intensity in the electricity mix at manufacturing and deployment locations. Wyoming and California show the highest and lowest CRF benefits as they have the most and least CO2 intensive grids, respectively. CRF payback times are longer than CO2 payback times in all cases. Thin film, CdTe PV technologies have the lowest manufacturing CO2 emissions and therefore the shortest CRF payback times. This model can inform policies intended to fulfill time-sensitive CO2 mitigation goals while minimizing short term radiative forcing.
ContributorsTriplican Ravikumar, Dwarakanath (Author) / Seager, Thomas P (Thesis advisor) / Fraser, Matthew P (Thesis advisor) / Chester, Mikhail V (Committee member) / Sinha, Parikhit (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Contrary to many previous travel demand forecasts there is increasing evidence that vehicle travel in developed countries may be peaking. The underlying causes of this peaking are still under much debate and there has been a mobilization of research, largely focused at the national scale, to study the explanatory drivers but research focused at the metropolitan scale, where transportation policy and planning are frequently decided, is relatively thin. Additionally, a majority of this research has focused on changes within the activity system without considering the impact transportation infrastructure has on overall travel demand. Using Los Angeles County California, we investigate Peak Car and whether the saturation of automobile infrastructure, in addition to societal and economic factors, may be a suppressing factor. After peaking in 2002, vehicle travel in Los Angeles County in 2010 was estimated at 78 billion and was 20.3 billion shy of projections made in 2002. The extent to which infrastructure saturation may contribute to Peak Car is evaluated by analyzing social and economic factors that may have impacted personal automobile usage over the last decade. This includes changing fuel prices, fuel economy, population growth, increased utilization of alternate transportation modes, changes in driver demographics , travel time and income levels. Summation of all assessed factors reveals there is at least some portion of the 20 billion VMT that is unexplained in all but the worst case scenario. We hypothesize that the unexplained remaining VMT may be explained by infrastructure supply constraints that result in suppression of travel. This finding has impacts on how we see the role of hard infrastructure systems in urban growth and we explore these impacts in the research.
ContributorsFraser, Andrew (Author) / Chester, Mikhail V (Thesis advisor) / Pendyala, Ram M. (Committee member) / Seager, Thomas P (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
The environmental and economic assessment of neighborhood-scale transit-oriented urban form changes should include initial construction impacts through long-term use to fully understand the benefits and costs of smart growth policies. The long-term impacts of moving people closer to transit require the coupling of behavioral forecasting with environmental assessment. Using new light rail and bus rapid transit in Los Angeles, California as a case study, a life-cycle environmental and economic assessment is developed to assess the potential range of impacts resulting from mixed-use infill development. An integrated transportation and land use life-cycle assessment framework is developed to estimate energy consumption, air emissions, and economic (public, developer, and user) costs. Residential and commercial buildings, automobile travel, and transit operation changes are included and a 60-year forecast is developed that compares transit-oriented growth against growth in areas without close access to high-capacity transit service. The results show that commercial developments create the greatest potential for impact reductions followed by residential commute shifts to transit, both of which may be effected by access to high-capacity transit, reduced parking requirements, and developer incentives. Greenhouse gas emission reductions up to 470 Gg CO2-equivalents per year can be achieved with potential costs savings for TOD users. The potential for respiratory impacts (PM10-equivalents) and smog formation can be reduced by 28-35%. The shift from business-as-usual growth to transit-oriented development can decrease user costs by $3,100 per household per year over the building lifetime, despite higher rental costs within the mixed-use development.
ContributorsNahlik, Matthew (Author) / Chester, Mikhail V (Thesis advisor) / Pendyala, Ram (Committee member) / Fraser, Matthew (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Comparative life cycle assessment (LCA) evaluates the relative performance of multiple products, services, or technologies with the purpose of selecting the least impactful alternative. Nevertheless, characterized results are seldom conclusive. When one alternative performs best in some aspects, it may also performs worse in others. These tradeoffs among different impact categories make it difficult to identify environmentally preferable alternatives. To help reconcile this dilemma, LCA analysts have the option to apply normalization and weighting to generate comparisons based upon a single score. However, these approaches can be misleading because they suffer from problems of reference dataset incompletion, linear and fully compensatory aggregation, masking of salient tradeoffs, weight insensitivity and difficulties incorporating uncertainty in performance assessment and weights. Consequently, most LCA studies truncate impacts assessment at characterization, which leaves decision-makers to confront highly uncertain multi-criteria problems without the aid of analytic guideposts. This study introduces Stochastic Multi attribute Analysis (SMAA), a novel approach to normalization and weighting of characterized life-cycle inventory data for use in comparative Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The proposed method avoids the bias introduced by external normalization references, and is capable of exploring high uncertainty in both the input parameters and weights.
ContributorsPrado, Valentina (Author) / Seager, Thomas P (Thesis advisor) / Chester, Mikhail V (Committee member) / Kullapa Soratana (Committee member) / Tervonen, Tommi (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
Electricity infrastructure vulnerabilities were assessed for future heat waves due to climate change. Critical processes and component relationships were identified and characterized with consideration for the terminal event of service outages, including cascading failures in transmission-level components that can result in blackouts. The most critical dependency identified was the increase in peak electricity demand with higher air temperatures. Historical and future air temperatures were characterized within and across Los Angeles County, California (LAC) and Maricopa County (Phoenix), Arizona. LAC was identified as more vulnerable to heat waves than Phoenix due to a wider distribution of historical temperatures. Two approaches were developed to estimate peak demand based on air temperatures, a top-down statistical model and bottom-up spatial building energy model. Both approaches yielded similar results, in that peak demand should increase sub-linearly at temperatures above 40°C (104 °F) due to saturation in the coincidence of air conditioning (AC) duty cycles. Spatial projections for peak demand were developed for LAC to 2060 considering potential changes in population, building type, building efficiency, AC penetration, appliance efficiency, and air temperatures due climate change. These projections were spatially allocated to delivery system components (generation, transmission lines, and substations) to consider their vulnerability in terms of thermal de-rated capacity and weather adjusted load factor (load divided by capacity). Peak hour electricity demand was projected to increase in residential and commercial sectors by 0.2–6.5 GW (2–51%) by 2060. All grid components, except those near Santa Monica Beach, were projected to experience 2–20% capacity loss due to air temperatures exceeding 40 °C (104 °F). Based on scenario projections, and substation load factors for Southern California Edison (SCE), SCE will require 848—6,724 MW (4-32%) of additional substation capacity or peak shaving in its LAC service territories by 2060 to meet additional demand associated with population growth projections.
ContributorsBurillo, Daniel (Author) / Chester, Mikhail V (Thesis advisor) / Ruddell, Benjamin (Committee member) / Johnson, Nathan (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
In developed countries, municipalities deliver drinking water to constituents through water distribution systems. These transport water from a treatment plant to homes, restaurants, and any other site of end use. Proper water distribution system infrastructure functionality is a critical concern to city planners and managers because component failures within these systems restrict or prevent the ability to deliver water. The reduced capacity to deliver water forces the health and well being of all citizens into jeopardy. The breakdown of a component can even spark the failure of several more components, causing a sequence of cascading failures with catastrophic consequences. To make matters worse, some forms of component failures are unpredictable and it is impossible to foresee every possible failure that could occur. In order to prevent cataclysmic losses that are experienced during system failures, the development of resilient water distribution infrastructure is vital. A resilient water distribution system possesses an adaptive capacity to mitigate the loss of service resulting from component failures. Traditionally, infrastructure resilience research has been retrospective in nature, analyzing the infrastructure system after it suffered a failure event. However, this research project takes water distribution resilience research in a new direction. The research identifies the Sensing Anticipating, Adaptation, and Learning processes that are inherent in the current operations of each component in the water distribution system (pumps, pipes, valves, tanks, nodes). Additional SAAL processes have been recommended for the components that lack adaptive management in current practice. This workis unique in that it applies resilience theory to water distribution systems in an anticipatory manner. This anticipatory application of resilience will provide operators with actionable process for them to implement during failure situations. In this setting, resilience is applied to existing systems for noticeable improvements in operation during failure situations.
ContributorsRodriguez, Jordan Robert (Author) / Seager, Thomas (Thesis director) / Eisenberg, Daniel (Committee member) / Bondank, Emily (Committee member) / Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering Programs (Contributor) / School of Sustainability (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
While public transit systems are perceived to produce lower GHG emission intensities per passenger miles traveled (PMT) and per vehicle miles traveled (VMT), there is a limited understanding of emissions per PMT/VMT across cities, or of how emissions may change across modes (light, metro, commuter, and bus) and time (e.g., with changing electricity mixes in the future). In order to better understand the GHG emissions intensity of public transit systems, a comparative emissions assessment was developed utilizing the National Transit Database (NTD) which reports energy use from 1997 to 2012 of rail and bus systems across the US. By determining the GHG emission intensities (per VMT or per PMT) for each mode of transit across multiple years, the modes of transit can be better compared between one another. This comparison can help inform future goals to reduce GHG emissions as well as target reductions from the mode of transit that has the highest emissions. The proposed analysis of the NTD and comparison of modal emission intensities will be used to develop future forecasting that can guide public transit systems towards a sustainable future.
ContributorsCano, Alex (Author) / Chester, Mikhail (Thesis director) / Seager, Thomas (Committee member) / Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering Programs (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Sustainability (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor)
Created2014-12
Description
One of the salient challenges of sustainability is the Tragedy of the Commons, where individuals acting independently and rationally deplete a common resource despite their understanding that it is not in the group's long term best interest to do so. Hardin presents this dilemma as nearly intractable and solvable only by drastic, government-mandated social reforms, while Ostrom's empirical work demonstrates that community-scale collaboration can circumvent tragedy without any elaborate outside intervention. Though more optimistic, Ostrom's work provides scant insight into larger-scale dilemmas such as climate change. Consequently, it remains unclear if the sustainable management of global resources is possible without significant government mediation. To investigate, we conducted two game theoretic experiments that challenged students in different countries to collaborate digitally and manage a hypothetical common resource. One experiment involved students attending Arizona State University and the Rochester Institute of Technology in the US and Mountains of the Moon University in Uganda, while the other included students at Arizona State and the Management Development Institute in India. In both experiments, students were randomly assigned to one of three production roles: Luxury, Intermediate, and Subsistence. Students then made individual decisions about how many units of goods they wished to produce up to a set maximum per production class. Luxury players gain the most profit (i.e. grade points) per unit produced, but they also emit the most externalities, or social costs, which directly subtract from the profit of everybody else in the game; Intermediate players produce a medium amount of profit and externalities per unit, and Subsistence players produce a low amount of profit and externalities per unit. Variables influencing and/or inhibiting collaboration were studied using pre- and post-game surveys. This research sought to answer three questions: 1) Are international groups capable of self-organizing in a way that promotes sustainable resource management?, 2) What are the key factors that inhibit or foster collective action among international groups?, and 3) How well do Hardin's theories and Ostrom's empirical models predict the observed behavior of students in the game? The results of gameplay suggest that international cooperation is possible, though likely sub-optimal. Statistical analysis of survey data revealed that heterogeneity and levels of trust significantly influenced game behavior. Specific traits of heterogeneity among students found to be significant were income, education, assigned production role, number of people in one's household, college class, college major, and military service. Additionally, it was found that Ostrom's collective action framework was a better predictor of game outcome than Hardin's theories. Overall, this research lends credence to the plausibility of international cooperation in tragedy of the commons scenarios such as climate change, though much work remains to be done.
ContributorsStanton, Albert Grayson (Author) / Clark, Susan Spierre (Thesis director) / Seager, Thomas (Committee member) / Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering Programs (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2014-12
Description
Team dynamics: a system of behaviors and psychological processes occurring within a social group (wiki). This definition classifies it as pertaining to a social group, so how do team dynamics vary from one specific social group to another? Social groups are created for many different reasons, some inherent (such as families) and some created intentionally with knowledge of what is being done (such as athletic teams, class project groups, and groups in the workforce). The way these groups interact and work as a team shapes how efficient they can work and how well they are able to achieve set goals. Therefore, in order to predict how well a particular group or team might perform in a routine project, it is useful to analyze the way they work together on a regular basis. Certain aspects of different groups, such as gender, age, level of competition, and type of activity, cause them to work together in different manners. Do any of these factors cause a particular group to work better as a team? Or do they just cause them to work differently?
ContributorsDunn, Travis Griffin (Author) / Lawrence, Christopher (Thesis director) / Seager, Thomas (Committee member) / Weaver, Edwin (Committee member) / Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering Programs (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2013-05
Description
The main objective of this project was to continue research and development of a building integrated solar thermoelectric generator (BISTEG). BISTEG is a promising renewable energy technology that is capable of generating electrical energy from the heat of concentrated sunlight. In order to perform R&D, the performance of different TEG cells and TEG setups were tested and analyzed, proof-of-concepts and prototypes were built. and the performance of the proof-of-concepts and prototypes were tested and analyzed as well. In order to test different TEG cells and TEG setups, a TEG testing apparatus was designed and fabricated. The apparatus is capable of comparing the performance of TEGs with temperature differentials up to 200 degrees C. Along with a TEG testing apparatus, several proof-of-concepts and prototypes were completed. All of these were tested in order to determine the feasibility of the design. All three proof-of-concepts were only capable of producing a voltage output less than 300mV. The prototype, however, was capable of producing a max output voltage of 17 volts. Although the prototype outperformed all of the proof-of-concepts, optimizations to the design can continue to improve the output voltage. In order to do so, stacked TEG tests were performed. After performing the stacked TEG tests, it was determined that the use of stacked TEGs depended on the Fresnel lens chosen. If BISTEG were to use a point focused Fresnel lens, using a stack of TEGs could increase the power density. If BISTEG were to utilize a linear focused Fresnel lens, however, the TEGs should not be stacked. It would be more efficient to lay them out side by side. They can be stacked, however, if the energy density needs to be increased and the costs of the additional TEGs are not an issue.
ContributorsPark, Andrew (Author) / Seager, Thomas (Thesis director) / Margaret, Hinrichs (Committee member) / Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Program (Contributor, Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-05